Agreed. Let's just watch and see if this 5th wave unfolds. As I said, I am more heavily short here than long. Two big Dow shorts and one semi long.

By the way, I really enjoy your posts, so I am glad to have a dialogue with you about the setups going on.

If we get a push here, it should be the beginings of the 5th. Black line should go.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d20][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

One more decent rally probably gets this to a point where we have a very nice sell off.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$cpc,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pc10!d20,2!f][vc60][J9854748...

JW, that is quite bearish if it works out. That would mean the giant iii of 3 in a major down wave. Probably 300 to 500 NDX points. I just don't see it, but am keeping an eye on it. That would mean something catastrophic happens.

Yes, the bearish count is this. Hence my 1500 target.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20031212,20041212][pf][vc60][ilb14...

Michael, anything is possible. I think what you will want to watch for is the 5th wave 1st. Let's see if we can get to 1500 over the next couple of days. You can short with stops, or wait for the first leg down and watch the corresponding up. If that up looks corrective, then more down should come.

Not today. Probably by the end of the week. Things always take more time than you expect. I would expect a stall at about 1500 on the NDX.

I would have to say that based on this, I will be shorting huge any 5th wave rally here.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

The 4 is not that long. It is still in the range of normality. I agree about all the complacency. I have one long and two big shorts. But, I still expect a completion of the impulse and then a nice pullback. Maybe that resets your indicators.

So far it just looks like a regular pullback in a 4th wave. Also a possible gap fill.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d20][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

I would not bet on down yet. Two AV's going on the 60 minute charts, and a nice three wave correction off of the highs from yesterday.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d20][pf][vc60][iLb14!Lb5!Lh5,5!Li10...

Looks like we could complete the impulse up by Wednesday. That would set up for some down to go into options expiration. The Wednesday the week before is always full of fireworks. Maybe we get an exhaustion run into that day and then a steep sell off.

This wedge died and now should be good for some sharp up.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[h,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

I agree. I think today's will fill for options ex.

Qcom is worth watching here.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[w,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

With two nice gaps now below us on the NDX/Comp, I would expect a pullback of some sort.

If this is a 3 up of some sort, you won't get that opportunity.

Interesting juncture here for Imclone.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IMCL,uu[h,a]dhclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iLb14!Lb5!Lh5,...

I agree, that is another reason I did not like it. So the question is, is the sox just doing an ABC off of the low, or is this a 3 of something?

AJ, you think this BRCM inv is operational? I did not like how long the shoulder has taken to complete. I think at the very least it is an abc off of the bottom and $32.00 gets tagged. The better case would be that it is in a larger 3 of something. Just not so sure about the head and shoulders.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=brcm,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

n, I have to think that the market is headed higher here. The put volumes on the QQQ remind me March of 2003, they created a floor and the markets kept going up.

Take a look at these two charts. Clearly, the most obvious read is that we are now in some sort of 5th wave up here. I am not bullish, but am trying to let the market tell me where it is going.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cat,uu[w,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,1....

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,....

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,...

I will watch the put levels to see if things get too bullish or bearish, but right now, I would not be leaning to heavily short. And, as history has shown us, presidential cycles are bullish.

Yep.

Interesting. Lots of index puts being purchased. I wonder if this is a hedge.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Take a look at all the QQQ puts. I think we go higher.

Agreed. If Bush decidedly beat Kerry, I think we would see a ramp like this. But since it appears obvious that the debate was Kerry's to win, I doubt this ramp is due to that.

Market can easily move higher. Each one of those two stocks will need to correct the huge dumps they have had. Even with those blow ups, the market is not down that much. If FNM goes up a few bucks and so does MRK, I would think the Dow will do just fine. Plus, CAT is exploding here.

I am not a bull here, but stating that corrective moves in these stocks can help move the Dow up.

I took it quite a bit for my back pain. Laddered it with my pain killers. Hell, if I was having a heart attack, I never would have known it. I was still taking it up until a couple weeks ago. Scary stuff.

Loading up? Qcom is up $.12. Frankly Qcom is looking like a nice head and shoulders play.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

JW, just curious. Do you trade index stuff or individual stocks?

Market has me quite torn here, I can see decent moves in either direction.

Was it the wrestler Bradshaw? Blonde hair? They always have guests on, not an analyst.

MC, I did not want to say anything, hell, I was flattered. vbg.

Can anyone make sense out of the CAT chart? Got a MACD sell signal today and it looks good for some more down.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cat,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20031203,20041224][pf][vc60][ilb5!l...

Oh jeez. Rumors on Friday are ridiculous. Besides, I think that war is so far removed from the market right now it is almost irrelevant. Even when Saddam got caught, we did not rally that much.

Channel tried to hold, but gave out.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20040404,20041220][pf][vc60][ilb14...

It is toast. Look at all the volume that came in to dump.

Or it just filled the gap.

That little wedge triangle broke down, so my initial thought would be a dump to that level, yes. Or, that was just an "e" throwover and it takes off from here. Let's see where it closes.

No. I think that is a pretty unorthodox head and shoulders pattern. Volume on the SMH should be lighter on this shoulder and it is actually a bit higher. We will see. I am not convinced.

Best bull case is we reverse at 1370 and this is just an ABC off the top.

At least to 1370.

Yep, I see another decent dump coming. BRCM is just one example.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=brcm,uu[w,a]ehclyyay[d30][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...

Sure are a lot of puts on the QQQ's in this range. 2:1 vs calls.