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smart comments
But it's a gamble, all of it.
I sense "they" want to bank on the newfound gambling crowd , so they induce enthusiasm via stocks like GME, BTC (bitcoin), TSLA, etc, etc.
Then when the crop is all in .....
It is getting very VERY interesting
Revenge trading is bad. I understand what it's like, I tried it myself. But it's not good, regardless if you made some money back.
You need to make money WITHOUT anger, completely calm. The trade has to be according to a plan. Revenge is not a plan, therefore is bound to make you lose more than you took back with the revenge. In fact trading on revenge is bound to make you break rules "just to get them".
Cool heads prevail.
Right now I can't have projections being near ATH. I don't have the know-how, and only can guess some of the possibilities via shapes. Only when bellow ATH I can venture projections.
I can say that the trend is UP-ward and trading long is the way.
For example you celebrate making few cents on the puts, however nice percentage, when calls saw a rise of SPY of 8 DOLLARS yesterday and another 6 DOLLARS today !
Even combined (if you held), is still TWELVE DOLLARS !!!
Cents versus MANY DOLLARS
The preference is clear, Chrystal clear
Even if you made a THIRD of that, it would still be 4 DOLLARS !!!!!
And this is not even genius - All you have to do is just FOLLOW THE TREND !!!
Buy support !!!
It can't get simpler than that
I protect my IP
Mainstream TA no problem, I share and advise now and then.
I do share some of my wisdom via advises and opinions.
And I definitely appreciate other people kindness.
Where is YOUR TA opinion ?!
One of my hurdles is options where I think I need some optimization.
I don't suck, but I can't say I'm proud..
You can't get anywhere without personal effort and dedication..
Only comments like this one have value.
Next step is to collect more data, verify as much as possible, then go to the drawing board and work hard on a scheme.
That's how I got going.
Not being constantly angry.
But that calls was a lotto , it's not a norm
Back to work
I don't dance
Resistance= Feb22@HOD389.62 and Feb23@HOD388.94
Feb 23 (yesterday's) is first.
These resistances not only have to be pierced , but outright violated.
Piercing is NOT valid violation since by definition it implies price falls back under.
It's "(just) pierce the gravity edge" vs "ESCAPE the gravity hold"
I don't "think" what you are saying. Nobody can read your mind pal. I read what you are saying.
And you were saying:
Quote: "I won't bother with those words there - They are just too dumb."
And that is NOT saying.
Now you say:
Quote: "I was saying "Watch out ! This thing is rotating (downwards to the right)"
Why don't y'try reading the replies to the post....."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=162049544
But in this link you present as evidence that you said that quote you post nothing like that, no such thing.
You remind me of trump dancing around.
We lose time here with your nonsense.
I said Vandal had a valid point , and that you CAN answer if you wanted to - technically as the discussion was technical , not about "thinking" or interpreting thoughts. We are not shrinking board but bouncing technical words. For a change Vandal DID talk technically back at you and you shot it down and chicken out of a technical reply while i think it was a rather easy challenge for a person posting charts like yourself.
It would've been nice if you replied to him technically as I wanted to see Vandal lose the such easy technical argument and you instead helped him win by throwing in the towel.
F mark instead of A or B
I see those words right on the money actually, far from being dumb.
And you SHOULD be able to (NOT required to tho) to respond to that.
It only looks mocking, but it isn't.
So my response would be - if flat rotates clockwise (it implies downwards) , then we have RESISTANCE lines.
Until that happens ALL those lines including the horizontal line are all support.
See? Very simple and all true.
I believe in you that you CAN do it very well.
Yes, he does have a joking style, mostly discouraging potential buyers. Me I just laugh reading those comments (while planning buying LOL).
Quote: "3 lines that continually rotate clockwise?
Doesn't look positive to me.
What happens if the flat one rotates clockwise to?"
Those support lines aside, my charting makes me be in accord with him as "Doesn't look positive to me."
My reason being the spike, the magnitude, and the afterwards price action, all lame to bearish. In other words, dead money picture.
Quote: "Most traders agree that what happened today was a set up plan to rob put premium."
I agree 100%, yes. most "traders".
That's because most traders do NOT make it. And human nature being what it is they will join the "blame others" club.
Quote: "Otherwise they would of just gapped it up and go up from there or let it drop for longer."
I disagree. That's utter nonsense. There are far more ways the price action could've gone than just too scenarios you come up with.
Quote: "Even people on the right side of it realized it."
Huh ?!! Say what? You read other people's mind?
I was on the right side all along, bought the lows, I even took pity and gave a shout in here so people would buy buy buy. At no time I "realized it" (defraud BS).
And I'm a working person with extremely limited time to trade or post. I'm not an insider but a regular person. And I saw the market pretty clear as can be deducted from my posts vs afterwards results.
Quote: "There should be a congressional investigation into what happened today."
Whining won't help. No one is listening. They are too busy making money.
Quote: "powerful financial forces that manipulate the market to their advantage at the expense of less richer retail traders."
It's 100% correct.
But it's up to you to find ways (i.e. trading plan) to survive this money fight. The house is always more powerful. What, you can't expect them to be just a bunch of incompetent sissies and just hand over their money to you. That's preposterous expectations. The Logic dictates that it MUST be a strong fight for the loot on the table, it just has to be. The weak traders always lose.
When I lost it was because I was weak in all directions required.
Yes, I too accuse them of manipulations, but it is up to me to beat them at their own game !!!!!
When they beat me then it's on me, as harsh that is - I have to accept responsibility for the negative results, just as I take credit for the winners.
Then go back to the drawing board and fix my loopholes.
FWIW I had loses bigger than you. I didn't cry. It hurt. It still hurts. It felt like crying. But I didn't cry.
I was also in oil when it plunged to -40. You didn't see me whining.
It is what it is. YOU are the problem. So therefore ---> YOU have to be the solution.
Quote (your post 337076) : "I was waiting for you to come with a snide comment. You always act so self righteous and arrogant."
This is an undeserved insult. You don't know to respect people.
Your trading is affected negatively as a result.
It looks like you're saying that you have no blame in the bad trade.
Only they and them
It looks like people gave in to fear mongers allowed on the board and didn't buy with me calls at the lows of the day.
So sad..
Make money people !!!!!
unless SPY climbs ASAP above yesterday then today we'll have a d10 turning downwards
That's a big domino on the lower level of importance
Trend is still strongly UP-trend , so at most we see volatility and sideways
This is a correction move offered for those whining and bitching that market doesn't correct
Now they got it! Do they buy? I don't think they do.
Just sitting in the corner watching in fear.
Or maybe buying puts at support as usual.
ugh
let's buy calls on support people!
Let's make money people !!!!!
when you are hot you are hot
no pause I mean
I have calls down 50%
from yesterday support buy
meh
I LOVE IT here for more calls
flexing the buying finger now
applying the plan
and buy buy buy
PRE-Joe is 376.7 so going bellow that is a bad mark (slap) so I consider that a literally red zone for the MM to go to , like asking to be punished, so no, so I regard that as the bottom...
I know , the clowns sell fast to scare call buying but not me, this can NOT go down, not with the reckless inflation it can't (not to mention the hoards of gamblers/buyers at home)
yeah, 383 asks me to buy call
well done captain
the clowns open SPY at 385 support
Unless the morning closes better than filling the gap completely, then SPY should go lower by at least one dollar bellow pre
I am a potential buyer of calls if that happens
Until then I see puts as a daytrade after the open
The clowns ramped it up like it was as a bottom near 400, then won't correct, won't correct won't correct, then sell on every buyer - the last 12 days looks like a rounding top on hourly chart
but what if the clowns gap SPY over prior day ? hmm ?
3900 is resistance
calls
It's a known fact that you can't teach forcefully someone that is closed, that doesn't want to learn.
You can NOT put water in a full glass
(a glass/person that is/feels full)
I am fully aware of and know of retracements pretty well, but I don't use it. In its Fib form anyway, NEVER.
Instead I adapted some of the retracement theory in models (in chart) and I use that. That's as much as I'm willing to talk about that (until I will see someone else publicizing such stuff).
I can concur that Fib is a valid concept and only fools will disregard it.
My unfinished struggle is with a Fib vs Gann, emphasis on Gann.
To me is like a game on phone people play to pass time - I pass time thinking of these unsolvable mysteries, time passes as fast if not faster, and oftentimes I don't even need the phone as it's all in mind so I can do it while driving ... or in front of a boring/annoying person (and brings a smile too), only nodding.
Only thing in tesla-like stocks is to use larger charts like weekly and monthly with a good grasp on support and resistance, NO indicators whatsoever, everything else is useless or even dangerous.
Oh, and watch the volume.
Alternatively, buy something Tesla/similar cos will need (i.e. battery stuff), small cos, they should offer far better potential than Tesla now.
...No, of course I'm limited... "Thanks"
Quote: "do u know what that even is?"
FWIW
I focus on SPY and technically at that because I need to trade
Every other thing is whining OT (form unsuccessful people losing at trading and blaming it on anything and everything else but their own lack of improving effort)
I'm not the enemy
Unknowingly (?) you mix 2 different things.
Economy with markets. They are NOT the same thing, even tho the pundits want us to buy it.
If you refer to economy that can not run on eternal stimulus you are 100% correct. it has been proven EVERY SINGLE TIME in history (therefore only a crazy or a bunch of crazies would try it again).
If you talk about the markets (like SPY, price of properties and commodities etc etc) then THAT IS ABSOLUTELY 100% working AND sustainable.
Now you switch to talking about economy ("the FED will be forced to raise interest rates")
But before you were talking about Markets/SPY:
"To keep relying on stimulus to boost markets is unsustainable"
You are mixing two completely different things. It's not helping you.
Economy is like your income/wage. It can go down or very down. This would be bad (economy).
Markets is like the price of your food/car/essentials - they can go UP and HIGHER regardless of your income or no income.
TWO DIFFERENT THINGS
We all agree on economy, I think..
"unsustainable" for what exactly ?
Because for SPY it is sustainable into eternity as nominal value is concerned.
FWIW it lasted e VERY VERY LONG TIME ALREADY , proving this reality !
First, thank you for technical presentation.
My technical opinion:
1. Not one, but both stochastics are completely useless for trading.
particularly the 233,34,13 settings I find ridiculous - it disrespects sto ideology. (I totally understand people play with settings in drive to find some secret/gold/magic settings, but this far off it aint it. GUARANTEED.
2. Bottom line (no pun), I don't see what's interesting in this chart.
If you put a regular sto (short or standard settings) for timing entry/exit, and only few moving averages, then draw (near) support/resistance lines, then it becomes extremely clear (to trade).
If you notice , the plandemic collapse broke support line - and THAT was the go-short moment (february 2020), and likewise, resistance was broken and you go long (april 2020).
September 2020 support broke again, but SPX reclaimed that violation, which in turn (bottom of selling) became support, and SPX went on to monshot grinding II, which we still are in.
You can make a case that at end of january 2021 support was violated thus to expect selling, but it was VERY MINOR violation (not convincing, so more like a trap and we see looking back it didn't work), but more importantly it didn't violate daily 50 (plandemic I plunge DID violate daily 50 (not shown).
BTW, that site is good.
SIDEWAYS - when sideways like this happens I stop using moving averages and MACDs one by one as they plateau
Instead use quantitative moves and ranges and stochastics
Also diminish the holdings and lower the time horizon
In effect it's a daytrading chop penny picking
So market is pretty much neutral, thus picking one side only in a sideways is wrong (or stupid)
The market pulse got really faint
9th trading day day of sideways
So everything lower than that (MA-wise) must be ditched or put on far far far far back seat
it might be an interesting read how they steal from you
or do they
They are saints
I was shopping calls yesterday morning
Calls were very modestly priced (in spite of increase in volatility!!!)
I was wondering ..why
critical stage will be reached, question just when
sorry my friend, that's ahead or far away of me.
I have a boatload of stuff to work on. I'm swamped. (I just got home and is night and dinner and not much time for much)
Futures I look at but didn't do much in the way of search (and I don't trade futures yet).
But I get what you are saying and I think you have something valid.
Problem with futures is that it is heavily, HEAVILY, HEAVILY manipulated. This is a conclusion I derived from all I learned. In fact, SPY is manipulated mostly through the futures.
Also what I can tell you, is you MUST split the money period from the non-money period. They are worlds apart. Chart, volume, everything.
I had a MT4 platform and I could do it and much much more, a wonderful platform. For a long time I don't have it and I can't do a lot of things I used to.
Let's say you uncover a volume pattern (very likely). Then you need to overlay it on a SPY chart to form conclusions. But I think you know that.
Good luck with it
I miss data to validate that opinion (re: "would not wait until the last week of an options expiration to sell and/or roll, they would not wait until the Friday before the last week of options expiration either")
Data that I do have (which is very little) invalidates it.
A computation is needed using strikes and volume of trades and quantities of lots.
A good starting point as I mentioned before, is an option chart.
Unfortunately I hardly have time to do other things so I'm at "one day I'll get to this/that" .
But if you do have the time that's the direction.
It not only will settle this opinion/view, but will allow you to sniff out the big bullies doings and place your trade along side for better chance.
I didn't see any crash yesterday, so I don't know what you're talking about.
I did see the drop coming as I posted.
I saw it because the momentum went down dramatically, while SPY gapped up, so then I went in intraday to watch support violated, and that was it, spectacular timing (except for whoever shorted from very open, that was the absolute best).
Sadly I placed a few cents too high order and didn't get the fill, and I am not chasing. Still learned few lessons, so not a complete waste..
Rolling OTM and conclusions - seems interesting thought process. But I don't know, I'm far from expert level in options. I traded all kinds, but now I usually trade near the money - it seems to pan better performance even tho when gets very ITM it's a big spread you have to stomach.
I regard OEPM as something like a MACD, so you can detect deviation, otherwise we go with a combination of abstract numbers and ATR sort of thing. So the numbers like 389.79 doesn't mean much to my thinking as it is not related whatsoever.
Drop and recover imo is just the loss of momo and ensuing resistance, then buying of support which comes in quite few flavors. I see it that simple.
Then if bought support is violated, THEN we have a different picture to next level of support (or political support and "intervention" (manipulation), which is also omnipresent these days).
I think you are correct.
However I believe Ferda refers to big players.
And as for institutions, they are not equal. Some do as you say, some actually go heavier into gambling OPM...
Remember "too big to fail/jail" BAILED OUT ?!!
We talk INSTITUTIONS there, not small potatoes.
Referring to financial institutions and not the industrial/companies failed and bailed out.
Yes, they may have played more other stuff like futures instead of options, but at the end of the day is all connected and we're down to semantics.
And I red about them institutional players holding the shares and balance risk with options, fearlessly it seemed.
It's not black and white anymore.
...And I even didn't get to the (big, fat, dirty) institutional insiders part of it if you know what I mean...
Good post
Do you/anyone know of a way/workaround to make (force) a DPO (detrend indicator) to show latest reading?
It uses displaced moving average so because of that, for example if you use DPO 20 on a daily chart, then you will NOT see the DPO readings for the last 10 days (periods) - completely blank.
So by the time it shows a reading you want to use it is already so too late.
Is there something we could do, or a similar indicator/workaround you may know or understand?
They teach to use it with vertical lines to reveal cycles. I don't need that cycle finding BS as I think it's kinda stupid since I can see the cycles myself, but I may find other uses and only if I can see present reading (otherwise sadly it's useless garbage for me as is as if I look at grossly delayed charts).
I found a way to UN-displace the MA inside the formula but it does NOTHING for me as now the readings are still displaced and only appear to be actual, so it's actually worse.
Shortening the period lessens the displace factor thus improving the worse to less worse but still in the very bad area..
And you can't go lower than 2, which is kinda pathetic.
I fee I am missing something
Engulfing bearish today?
That makes sense.
But the price have to show this, there is no other way.
You yourself say that UGAZ was ... showing a discrepancy. And that's my core point - price WILL reflect trading.
Our SPY already rounded the advancements, so I did notice that, so more or less in line with your post.
But to your UGAZ, the discrepancy SHOULD'VE reflected the other way in the forward contract (since it gets more buying). Same happens in SPY when let's say calls gets more premium than puts due to "attention" given in the foyer.
I saw this drop, yes
As potential.
Nevertheless (because uptrend and fear of false top) I did place put buying - as daytrade (I don't buy puts in uptrend, management policy).
All was good, charting, timing, order, except I placed a too high (be 3 cents) order and I did not get the fill.
It was a success in my log tho as I planned correctly.
But exiting longs would NOT be a problem (like no filled order) because I have different approach, which is the main thing, not the sidekicks.
But I hope I make the gallery happy that I missed a good short.
BTW, I'm looking to shop calls , just so to be clear.
According to charts of course..
Not yet there..
Buy the dip mantra is alive and well.
Make money people !!!!!
ok Ferda, I understand the assumption, so they frontrun whoever/whatever (but that's only an empty , unsupported assumption).
The data that we do have does not support at all that assumption, which having already no supporting evidence for it , now is completely obliterated.
A nothing-burger
Thing we do know:
- The House have power - so they are not afraid (to squeeze to max)
- the House is greedy just like everybody else - so they will take everything they can shamelessly and fearlessly
More importantly
- the OEPM data (my data anyway) shows crystal clear on the charts that price does NOT roll/reverse prior to OEPM pivot!
Yes, there are some circumstances where it does reverse, but in those circumstances price hit already the price-pivot, in other words AFTER they squeezed already everything they needed.
A good example, let's say SPY hit 400 today. -> THAT could constitute a valid price-pivot point, thus CAN trigger a rollover (ANYTIME and NOT just in a wed-thu).
Without going further in this "boring" OEPM stuff I think I said enough...
Case being, the abstract wed-thu rollover point has no legs to run on. (even if an insider would swear on his mother's socks that that's the case, because charting and algorithmic data would have to support this sht and it doesn't)
Thanks for reply
Why would the options be reset today Ferda?
Why would the options be rolled into the next month today?
What's special today?
Today is just 10th of the month.
It's Wednesday. It's not even a Friday, it's middle of the week.
It's only a week and a half into the month.
It's NOT the 3rd Friday of the month.
Quote: "today is the day that option positions are reset. This can cause a change in trend or an acceleration in trend.
They are rolling their positions to the next month today. "
I agree..
In 3 he said: "reasons behind price movements"
1. First, you didn't speak to the person about this. So you have no way to read his mind what he intended. Only option is to look at the facts and try to put zero spin. Your opinion is spin as you tell me "what he meant" and like I said there is no way you know such thing.
2. He used Plural, not "movement", not one price "movement", but "movements", so many/all price movements...!
So now we can draw logical conclusion with words SAID as base.
Therefore he must refer to movements in general. Therefore he MUST be referring to study and knowledge acquirement and pursuit of knowledge as well as value of knowledge.
Being curious and trying to satisfy the curiosity means learning and trying to learn and acquire and advance knowledge.
Knowledge is power, is a positive, good thing.
Then my prior challenging comments were right on the money so to speak:
- "It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements."
1. since when studying is stupid or wrong?! Com'on.
2. We KNOW that information is power, knowledge therefore is power.
So it is preferable to be ignorant fool? I don't think so.
ONLY if he refereed to a particular case of price movement that occurred it would mean something else - like just go with the flow and take the train don't hesitate. And even then it is a speculation as it implies reading his mind.
Using plural changes the whole thing, it makes it, well, wrong.
I had an itch to short today.
Then I asked myself if that will follow my trading plan.
The answer was NO.
So I shushed myself telling myself that I have to follow the plan.
Just like you would go to a business and ask for something and you are told "Nope, sorry, we have to follow the rules and protocols.." case closed.
And looking back I can see how dumb would've been of me to throw any money on the short side..
Long - or cash
Long - or cash
Long - or cash
on
and on
and on
and on
and on
and on
............
"The only thing that might..."
New currency, whatever it will be, will stop US markets dead cold.
Maybe even a 70% overnight crash. Followed by few other 50% drops increments. Impossible to stop that carnage since the dollar will have zero influence.
I think many minds are thinking how to do it, just as many minds are thinking how to keep the current debasing of the dollar going while keeping the dollar as currency still.
Only up and away until that time
NO fear
Livermore was a smart guy.
But, Let's take a look.
- "Markets are never wrong, opinions often are."
1. So, if my opinion matches what market does, how will my opinion be wrong ?!
2. market is NOT an entity to be either wrong or right. The market is a union OF PEOPLE and we all know, the PEOPLE ... HAVE OPINIONS, therefore the market represents OPINION of PEOPLE.
- "Don't try to guess tops or bottoms."
1. Why ? WHYYY?
2. Market DO have bottoms and tops, just not permanent, and this is a fact.
- "It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements."
1. since when studying is stupid or wrong?! Com'on.
2. We KNOW that information is power, knowledge therefore is power.
So it is preferable to be ignorant fool? I don't think so.
- "There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side"
1. the wrong side is also a side. So much for being only one side.
2. Right side has not one but two sides - the invested and the in cash.
I am not trying to pick on the sayings of a person. I challenge them. I like to challenge any saying that comes my way. Oftentimes me and/or others benefit from a different view.
It looks like 387 tomorrow
This means 390 is days away
Then all eyes on 400