self control and discipline will make you $$$!
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T4..Nice call on ISIS!! Nice chart too!EOM
you betcha T4..!!!EOM
nsomniyak.....
that message came from the Raging Bull PTSC board from a poster name "greeneyes" who quoted it from another poster names "incite". LOL
It's a quote of a quote of a quote. LOL
Have a good weekend!
PP
Imbd...here is one to watch next week.........
AOOR (an OTC BB)..0.45 now. It is an oil/gas/alternative energy company. They are the major owner of shares in EBOF (another OTC). EBOF is currently going through a nice uptrend at this time. It is an alternative biofuel company. AOOR being it's major holder of shares lags behind it's price when EBOF moves up. AOOR may play some catch up in the next week or two. Keep on watch!
PP
Here is a good message I found regarding S & L.....
Before this deal, S & L could convert their warrants below market price, putting downward pressure on the PPS. This is no longer the case, and the Company has no more debt in the process. IMO: I cannot say whether or not they will ''cash out'', no more than I can say you or anyone else will. However, they are letting go of tens of millions of dollars worth of warrants/shares. Why? Just to cash out? I don't think so.
It is clear to me that Lincoln and Swartz see value in the future of PTSC and were willing to make some concessions to eliminate PTSC's debt along with the downward resets at Pohl's request. And by holding long as 10% owners, ultimately come out tens of millions and perhaps hundred's of millions USD ahead. And to sweeten the deal, Pohl has thrown in the added value of dividends. In that Feb Pr, a spokesman for Lincoln Ventures, and Swartz Private Equity, announced that ''Lincoln and Swartz are pleased with the progress of Patriot's intellectual property enforcement program through its joint venture portfolio partner, The TPL Group. We have confidence in their program to secure additional licensing transactions with users of the patented technologies of Patriot and TPL, and the potential for sustained revenue to the Company.''
In the past they could sell without disclosure. Now
with their holdings exceeding 5% they will need to make appropriate SEC filings upon future dispositions of the Company's stock.
So, if they do sell, we will know about it.
I believe this deal is a good thing, because it puts to end a bad thing. It was good for them either way now it's good for all of us. In fact since this deal was announced, it has been nothing but, good for us.
If S & L have any faith at all in TPL and the multitude of suits brought forth on behalf of PTSC and the MMP Patent Portfolio, then it would be way premature of them to sell and cash out at this point. There are so very many other companies involved in the patent infringment, which have not been settled as yet! They would have too much to potentially lose, selling a this point.
It all hinges on how much faith they have in TPL's ability to bring forth settlement after settlement.
Sam, I have seen messages asking why Sony was not listed as one of the companies in that PR. I bet anything Sony was not one of the companies bring forth a countersuit against Patriot and TPL and this is why you don't see their name in that release imho.
Have a Good Weekend!
PP
Here I am trying to give a compliment where one is due and Slime comes in and slimes all over it. I can only picture what Slime looks like...that green blob that slimed Bill Murray in Ghostbusters! LOL
PTSC..all I can say is just AWESOME news today for fast track settlements to come! Goooo Texas!!!
PP
GIGM has broken out today from it's symmetric triangle. This afternoon it took out $4.85 on strong volume. $4.79 now! They will be releasing quarterly earnings news on March 23, premarket. I think this one could be an easy double from current levels. They are the new on line Mahjong players site for Asia!
Nice chart imho!
PP
This was absolutely awesome news today PTSCer's! Congratulations to all of you. T4M is responsible for so very much of the DD and TA here and I would like to just say THANK YOU for his hard work! He is an ASSET to any board, as you may already know.
I think today's news, although not specific in nature, is most encouraging and positive PR yet for future Big developments with TPL and PTSC, as far as fast track settlement after settlement are concerned!
A Big Congrats to All here!
PP
T4..how big is Mahjong in Asia..?? Do you play?EOM
NVAX continues to be very strong with uptrending momentum on Bird Flu concerns. Chart broke out about a month ago at $4.30. Now trading at $7.30 with a Target of $9.50.
PP
Vonage IPO debuts next month. This could bring interest to the VOIP sector. 2 VOIPs to watch....
EGHT
DDDC
EGHT released news today of new VOIP phone at Home Depot.
PP
I might do that! Maybe I could make a list of questions/suggestions for them when I call. Any input for questions/suggestons would of course be appreciated. Maybe post the questions/suggestions here and I'll make a list.
Would this be a good idea??
PP
If PTSC's PRs are timed well and spaced out instead of lumping them together, they could command much more momentum and a much higher shareprice longer term. That just makes good sense and I hope the guys and PTSC realize this. Maybe someone could advise them of this when the time comes. It makes good sense.
PP
In the past few months I have had 3 silver brokers contact me, trying to sell me on the idea of buying physical silver in this market. I think the precious metals may be something to talk about later this year, but not now. I think they are overbought here (silver/gold). But later this summer it could be a consideration.
There are also some quality silver/gold stocks out there. With a weakening dollar, huge federal deficit, and worldwide uncertainty.....silver/gold is something to think about later on.
One broker even claimed that silver is actually 6 times more rare than gold in worldwide inventories because phyical silver has been used up for the most part in the past 20 years from industrial uses (electricl/heat conductors, medical industry, and photography).
T4 is a photography expert......do they use silver in cameras? do they use them in digital cameras? I don't know.
These brokers claim that the price of silver could rise 20 to 30 fold in a few years. I don't know. $300/oz. silver seems far-fetched to me.
China's CESV, CAAS, CHNR, CTDC...would any of these guys be possible candidates?
My lack of technological background would impede me from asking those hard hitting questions and understanding the technical/legal jargon they would be firing back at me.
The perfect candidate for the job would be someone who is tech. savy and who could quite possibly come off as a large foreign investor/venture capitalist looking to place a large sum in their company.
Who could do such a thing?
Only some one with an IT and Investment background with various funds like evergreen and carlye group.
I vote for T4M..!!!!
T4..you have a strong command of both languages, whereas I can barely speak english! LOL
I vote for T4M to call the TPL group and find out Exactly what is going on. T4...we need specifics......
1. names of specific companies involved in patent infringement and who is settling with licensing agreements.
2. specific amounts of money agreed upon, including any royalties payments.
3. time frame for payments and exactly when they start.
4. specific dates that PTSC will come out with PR's announcing these licensing agreements.
5. if there are over 150 companies involved, will there be individual PR's for each company released by Patriot or will they lump them together in just a few PR's.
6. would RIMM, DELL, RMBS, etc.... be involved in any patent infringements with Patriot.
If anybody can find out.....T4 can! He has the knowledge. He has the know how to ask the hard hitting questions. And won't let them off the hook until they have responded to his satisfaction. No skirting around the issues!
I have cast my vote....and I vote for T4M..!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go get 'em T4..!!!!!!!!!!
PP
AVAN receiving a $40 Million payment March 17th. Momentum traders will pick up on this between now and the 17th and run it up imho. It could get a 75 cent or $1.00 move imho. We'll see!
PP
T4...here is one of your old picks....
AVAN..1.99 now...had some nice news today....
$40 Million accelerated payment by March 17th... http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060315/20060315005180.html?.v=1
Should see a 25-30% pop in short order imho.
PP
T4...if "hope" only worked for me in the stockmarket, I would be a billionaire by now. LOL I think they will release much more news, but I don't know if it will be tomorrow or not. We'll find out soon enough. (probably tomorrow)LOL
PP
thank you yayaa! have a good time at the B-ball game!EOM
yayaa..I am having a problem pulling up any of those ticker symbols over at yahoo finance. How do I access those company/tickers to do some DD..??
PP
The Bird Flu stocks are moving today, but I think they need a breather imho!
NVAX
GNBT
HEB
I'll be a buyer on any Dips!
PP
I remember yayaa too from RB. Hi Yayaa! Didn't you always say "Cheers" in all your messages over there? That's what stands out in my mind. LOL
Cheers!
PP
T4.....
Take a look at the 6 month chart on GIGM and tell me if you think this has formed a good triangle chart pattern for a breakout soon.
PTSC is going down now, $1.30 something. I think it will go lower (around $1.00) before bouncing and could eventually form a similar triangle like GIGM has. The triangle may take 4 or more weeks to form on PTSC, but I think it will eventually touch that 50 dma, as it trends up.
PP
T4..do you mind if I post some nasdaq stocks over $2.00 here?
I have a couple I need some opinions on. Charts look good too imho.
Let me know. I'll post them tomorrow, if OK with you for feedback.
Have a good evening!
PP
Yeah..here's why T4....
03:08 ET USDA says advanced test shows suspect animal does have mad cow disease - Reuters
1 single cow and the stock surges. LOL
What would happen if they found a herd with the disease? LOL
T4..the best things in life are Free!!
Life
Health
Family
Friends
Love
Joy
Peace
and the T4M Board, of course!!!
PP
hi T4 and mick....here is one to watch monday....
Here is the scare news.....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/12/AR2006031200485.html
a speculative "mad cow" scare this weekend on the news....
Stock: EMRG..0.37....close from friday. BUT..........
typically with hyped scare news coming out on the weekend, the stock may gap up at the open and move up the first half hour from the chasers, but then it usually falls back Down like a rock thereafter.
so if you have a mind to watch this one monday, maybe shorting it in the morning may be a better bet, after it gaps and runs in the morning.
anyhow, they wont know anything (confirmed) for a week or more. It's all speculation.
Good Luck!
PP
NMKT..one to consider...
Conversion of of preferred shares should be complete in about 2 1/2 weeks!
INVESTMENT THESIS AND RECOMMENDATION
Our analysis suggests that NEWMARKET TECHNOLOGY INC. is an interesting speculative play among micro-cap companies offering exposure to the investor on the widespread need for enterprise systems integration and IP packaged solutions. The investor enjoys the added benefit of being able to partake in geographic diversification with VoIP growth opportunities in emerging markets such as Latin America and China, where the technology is not well-known and the company prides itself in being able to consult with various enterprise customers to tailor solutions that will best suit them, while also introducing new technology to customers. Despite the size of the company it is already structured and positioned to provide diversity in more than one business segment to the investor, namely IP solutions and systems integration, VoIP and other telecom, healthcare and Homeland Security solutions. NMKT has begun to consolidate and optimize its general technology service business operations to include the divestment of unnecessary redundancies and streamline efficiency. NewMarket has acquired 4 general technology service business operations since 2003, which all hold tremendous promise for continued growth.
Both operating and financial risk involved in investing in a young technology company are typically high and should be considered by investors. In this case the risks are tied to the uncertainty surrounding competition and the speed and success of its international rollout. Due to the business model that uses brand name solutions that are packaged with new emerging technologies that are offered to customers, there is a risk to overcome the prevailing consumer resistance to new technologies, which if not achieved will raise marketing costs to launch new products or re-launch old products and to concentrate selling efforts. SG&A costs and infrastructure spending need to be managed well in order to achieve consistent profitability. Readers should understand that there can be no assurance that the company will be able to fast-track its intended path towards diversifying the client base, that will flow through directly to the top and or bottom line to build a consistent longer term profitable track record to enrich shareholder value.
We therefore only recommend investors that have a high tolerance for risk that are able and willing to forfeit either most or all of their capital in search for extraordinary returns, to consider investing in the shares. Also, in our view investors willing to commit capital to NMKT should do so with absolute minimum 2 year investment horizon, but preferably longer, to allow ample opportunity for growth to emerge until broader price discovery can materialize within the investment community that will allow the value behind the current acquisitions to be unlocked as new services to current and existing regions are added. Short term we expect an upward price bias in NMKT stock. There is some evidence of a meaningful short position in the security and the potential exists for a short squeeze scenario to develop should the stock price rise beyond the 45c level in quick fashion. In the medium term the major factor that may continue to result in share price underperformance is delays in moving the listing to a national exchange such as the AMEX and a restructuring of the capital structure to lower issued and outstanding shares (I/O) that has been identified as one of the major culprits of the share price appreciation not keeping pace with the major growth achieved in sales, profits and shareholder equity by NMKT management in recent years. We believe that the company will be able to make improvements on this I/O issue, that will ultimately lead to re-rating of the stock to better reflect what we believe is a more realistic reflection of the true worth of the company.
The goal of all publicly traded companies is to pay dividends and/or attempt to increase the value of their stock price. One of the core reasons which is pivotal to our bullish argument for upside in NMKT, results from our interpretation of the financial data and developments for NewMarket and added potential of its spin-off strategy for incubator companies that implies future equity dividend events. We see a value opportunity in NMKT stock for prospective and existing shareholders that can make tactical investment decisions, since management contemplates and targets spinning off the incubated companies from the main concern when the timing is right. This is the "the sum of its parts is worth more than the whole" argument. Based on recent outlook provided by management for FY 2006 for each of the respective units of the company, we expect financial performance to improve and begin to accelerate by middle of the this year (FY2006). We expect some improvement in the operating cost structure in FY2006 that will result in EPS increases of close to 100% on topline revenue growth ($50 million in FY 2005 to at least $87.5 million in FY 2006) of roughly 75%. Under the assumption that any further capital raising activity is well-managed to contain any further major I/O increases and positive cash flow from operations to be generated in FY 2006 as more progress is made to consolidate and synergize recent acquisitions, we are of the opinion that NMKT stock has compelling upside potential.
Given managements and our own independent forecasts, we are of the opinion that revenue potential of $87.5 million is achievable for FY 2006. Using our gross margin (44%) and operating cost (37.5% of revenue) assumptions we estimate a net pre-tax profit of $6.33 million for FY 2006, and forecast FY 2006 EPS of 4.2c (assuming 120 million weighted number of shares outstanding). We have not made allowance for 30% effective tax rate or tax expense of roughly $1.9 million in FY 2006.
Our view is that the shares are beginning to reflect the expected positive financial improvements we expect in FY 2006, but given the current low PE and Price to Book multiples, we argue that the market is assigning a low probability to the fact that high growth rates can be maintained off a larger revenue base and/or that the rating is negatively affected by the overhang of roughly 70 million shares that may be converted into common stock that will dilute the interest of ordinary shareholders.
We believe these concerns are exaggerated and that this negative dampening effect on the low rating of the shares will be reversed once the company is listed on the AMEX (AMEX peer companies trading at over 2 times P/S value), more institutional interest and position taking occurs in NMKT, and the fully diluted issued and outstanding reduction is implemented. The fully diluted issued and outstanding reduction will be achieved by exchanging preferred stock in NewMarket for securities in NewMarket subsidiaries. The company intends to complete and disclose the reduced fully diluted issued and outstanding in the upcoming annual report.
Using our FY 2005 and FY 2006 EPS forecasts and applying a forward 6 and 18 month PE multiples of 40x and 35x respectively, we arrive at forward share values of 80.7c and 97.7c going out 6 and 18 months. The PE ratios chosen are based on a blend of peer telecom and IT services comparatives and as a function of the expected growth rate, or PEG methodology. We have chosen a discount rate (k) of 31%, which is a function of the stocks beta measure, which is typically high for telecom issues relative to other sectors.
{k=Risk-free rate + (Market risk premium) * Beta}
We compute a present value of these two future values (forward price) by discounting and determining the average between these two present values (SEE TABLE ABOVE). This process yields a result of 89.48c which is our mathematical estimate of the value of NMKT under these assumptions. Given these calculations and our bottom up analysis which is more qualitative in nature, we set a 12 month target price for the security of $0.8950.
All factors considered, we anticipate a stake in NMKT still has compelling upside potential in the coming 12 months. Our 12 month price target also implies a forward Price to Sales ratio of close to 1.09x our FY 2006 Revenue forecast of at least $87.5 million, which is still well below that of with the average listed telecom services sector names and Internet and Software industry price to sales multiples of 2.09x.
We HIGHLIGHT to the reader that this forecast is made under the assumption that the company can attain our FY2006 revenue expectation of $87.5 million and a minimum of 4.2c positive EPS. Moreover, we believe that the present market for NMKT shares is far from efficient, does not fully reflect the leverage possible from the UniOne deal that will bolster growth in Latin America and secondly we believe that the potential healthcare acquisitions discussed earlier in this report, could dramatically change the future revenue composition of NMKT by growing the healthcare industry segment of the company to such an extent that it may dwarf the FY 2006 revenue forecast of this division of $7 million, in 2007 and beyond.
To summarize, we view that the share price and corresponding market capitalization does not adequately reflect the company's progress. The dynamics of the OTCBB is unlikely to consistently support true valuations based on financial performance. Financial performance similar to NewMarket's is supporting better share price to sales performance on national exchanges. In addition to taking measures to ensure continued fundamental financial performance, NewMarket is in process of upgrading its current equity environment by:
1) Achieving a listing on an exchange that attracts more institutional investors.
2) Pursuing institutional shareholder interest after this listing.
3) Obtaining financing for growth leveraged on financial fundamentals and moving away from equity only financing.
After reporting $2.3 million in revenue in 2003, the company expects to report over $50 million in profitable revenue for 2005. NewMarket's earnings and balance sheet metrics beat technology service sector averages for companies under $100 million in revenue listed on national exchanges (SEE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION that follows at the end of this report).
NewMarket's market capitalization value is currently less than half the average market capitalization value of these technology service companies. Once the company can achieve a listing on the AMEX exchange, which it has stated is part of its near term objectives, investor awareness and visibility of NMKT will increase which can raise the rating on the stock beyond our target price goal.
Under these assumptions we initiate coverage on NMKT with a SPECULATIVE positive rating, which is our highest category rating.
Risk to our recommendation include amongst other: failure of new marketing campaign(s) to its Chinese and Latin American customer base and landing of contracts in broadband and other solutions on municipality level, a slowdown in growth of current contract, service and product revenue streams that will lead to a contraction in forward PE multiple assumptions. New competition in regional markets, any stringent or bold regulatory changes impacting adversely on the US domestic and international VoIP, broadband, homeland security and healthcare systems and related telecom services and system integration markets, any inability to obtain necessary financing from capital markets when needed, to continue its business projects and/or major share dilution that can occur, if large quantities of shares are issued to extinguish debt or paid for services, are some additional factors that will counteract price appreciation potential or cause shares to decline in value.
Any failure to obtain adequate distribution of NMKT products/services to a large number of intended end users, the inability to achieve revenues in the future that depends in significant part upon NewMarket's ability to build upon existing relationships with, and provide support to, several large recognized branded communications suppliers can hamper share price performance. As a result, any cancellation, reduction or delay may materially adversely affect the business, financial condition and results of operations and additional risk factors that could adversely affect the attainment of our share price target include: market acceptance of NMKT products or services; consumer demand for, and acceptance of, products, services and follow-on products; the company's ability to create user-friendly applications and its unproven and evolving business model. Revenues and gross margins will depend significantly on the overall demand for IP Telephony products. Reduced capital spending budgets by NMKT customers caused by the ongoing industry downturn can lead to continued soft demand for products and services, which can resulted in decreased revenues, earnings levels or growth rates.
We would caution that given the size of the company (microcap) and risks involved, overall we advise private client positions be limited below 5% of the client's total portfolio size.
The research analyst, who upon request wrote this report, certifies that the views expressed in this research report, accurately reflects his personal view about the subject company. The analyst also certifies that he does not own or have any beneficial interest in shares of the covered company, also that no part of his compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or view expressed in this report.
Based on the facts that were provided, the industry trends present and sources of information used to produce this report, it is my best opinion and reflection of what the company's rating and share appreciation potential could be once research coverage is widely adopted. Investors are urged to consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Information, opinions or recommendations contained in this report or research note are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes and we also do not accept any obligation to provide updates to this report in future.
Clients of the analyst firm collectively own less than 1% of total shares outstanding of the issuer. For securities recommended in this report the firm is not a market maker, but may from time to time provide bids and offers and may act as principal in connection with such transactions to facilitate trading liquidity or execution. The firm of the analyst does not actively seek to do investment banking business with the company covered in this research report. This independent analysis and judgment relies on material supplied by the subject company and other sources, such as SEC filings believed to be reliable. The analyst that prepared this report cannot guarantee the information contained herein for accuracy or completeness.
All information contained in this report is subject to change without notification. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell, nor solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Investors are advised to consult their personal broker or investment advisor before making any decision concerning the subject company. Investors are also urged to do their own due diligence. In our opinion, only high risk oriented investors who can risk the loss of their entire investment should even consider a commitment to the covered company.
All readers are urged to peruse SEC documents relative to the subject company before making any investment decision. No reproduction of this report is permissible without the consent of the writing analyst. All rights reserved.
A pure speculation on the chart......
you can see the 50 dma is currently around 40 cents. This should continue to trend upward over the coming weeks, regardless of whether the stock goes down, sideways, or up from here.
If any future PR's are delayed for a bit, this would give the stock time to consolidate the massive move it's had over the past couple of months...over 2000% move!!!
I think it may be "possible" the stock could form a flag pennant from here, if no further news is released in the coming week or so to propel it higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
I may add to my position here later on too!
Time will tell what the heck is going to happen here.
Here is a classic demonstration of the benefit of free shares. It takes away all worry, concern, frustration, uncertainty, and speculation about what may/could happen yesterday/today/tomorrow. It frees you to concentrate on other things. To anyone who has them...I ask...
Am I right or am I right?!
Holding long term becomes a non-event and it gives you all the patience in the world for that next Toshiba, Panasonic, NEC, or Sony licensing PR by PTSC!
Yep Yep!
Be back later! I have to go to the hospital. (family illness)
oilbaron, always nab those free shares if you've got them, that way you're safe either way (up or down) and holding long term is so much easier imho.
Oilbaron...NMKT opinion....
I'll tell you what I think is going to really move this one. The company is going to retire all of their discounted convertible preferred shares (millions of them) by the end of this month. This is what has been largely responsible for the naked shorting going on with this stock lately. Once this convertible debenture stops, the overhead resistance can breakdown and their being listed on the AMEX could soon become a reality imho.
Good Luck to all of us!
T4, even if someone is retired, they can still mess around on the boards from time to time. Even billionaires still work from time to time. Gates and Buffet still work. I think.
Anyone here think PTSC may need a breather from last months huge move???
If we can break above the 50 dma, then we can truly start trending upward and onward. Uptrends on no news are the best kind. They can be long and sustained because the big money in the know are buying/accumulating. Then when news comes out and retail investors jump in....BANGO!
Gooooo PTSC!
PTSC is looking good here for a nice move soon imho! Let the PR's cometh!!! Long and Strong here!!!
PP