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Happy Hour doesn't seem to be working today. Can't reply to a private message and it's 4.15p EST
NG prices might well be headed into the 1's, who knows. Quite a turnaround from just a few months ago when plenty of "experts" on TV were saying low NG prices were a thing of the past.
Just for general info, pretty good article about future LNG projects. They're not gonna affect the NG price anytime soon, but still good to know:
https://archive.is/qJzs3
ISSC ($7.80) Market didn't like recent earnings, but conf call was pretty upbeat about investments in the future and 10% owner bought another $1mil worth:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836690/000194647923000002/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml
It's not quite T+0, but T+1 Settlement Coming. As of now, sounds like end of May '24:
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-29
T+1 Settlement Coming. As of now, sounds like end of May '24:
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-29
Div, Yeah they had announced it a while back and it's payable today. I'm happy to see them dividend cash. Much less risky than the idea of taking on debt to buy back shares.
WIRE, yeah these guys are such good businessmen. Capital intensive industry, yet making serious money for shareholders while using NO debt.
I'd suggest ,this is a great call for anyone to LISTEN to, rather than just read a transcript. You can just hear the expertise, constantly talking about improving efficiency, how to deploy capital, even speaking well of competitors and saying that competition is good, concern for shareholders, etc.
Sure thing. And yeah, it would absolutely continue operating. But I do wonder how much fear it would create in the entire industry, and that might actually be the time to buy all the natgas stuff.
I certainly don't claim to be the know-it-all expert about any of this. But I'd imagine the entire Freeport LNG complex is probably made up of like dozens of different LLC's and partnerships to limit liability, so I have no idea what that debt even covers. Each train seems to have its own bank debt, etc. But there have to be some huge losses somewhere in the entangled web. The website says Smith owns 63% of Freeport LNG, but I don't even know what that means, because no way to know all the structures.
The other interesting part about how quickly things change is this huge complex was originally built before the US shale gas boom and was built to import LNG! lol
re Freeport, yep but gotta wonder about how far in arrears they are, etc and if debt will have to be renegotiated, formally or informally. Osaka reported a loss based on Freeport losses. In Sept Fitch had already downgraded Freeport debt to B- :
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-freeport-lng-investments-lllp-to-b-remains-on-rating-watch-negative-02-09-2022
bbotcs, re Freeport, mainly it's just how it might affect natgas prices as a whole and some of the natgas stocks. I would expect natgas prices to firm a little when the re-start is complete.
But I'm also just curious how they've survived for so long with not a shred of revenue -- it'll probably be close to 9 months by the time they fully re-start. Losses had to be in the billions. That's a big hit for anybody. I'd imagine they have some sort of business interruption insurance, but still. If freeport had to file bk at some point, that might also strike some fear into the natgas market. Not predicting that will happen, but I'm just kind of curious as to how they're staying afloat
CXDO - Still watching it, but don't own any and don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Insider buying is a plus, but not yet seeing revenue and earnings that make sense to me. Best of luck with it
BDCO ($2.18) Moving back up today, for whatever reason. Had a low of $1.50 on Friday. Sheesh, The crazy swings of thinly traded smallcaps.
Congrats on the straddles!
Freeport, yep that's what it sounds like (assuming nothing goes wrong). Freeport's private so we can't know their finances. But man, for such a capital-intensive project I wonder how the heck they've survived with ZERO revenue for what will be 9 months! I don't know how much insurances cover and that sort of thing, but that's a long time.
Re natgas in general, will be interesting to see how much of a decline in drilling there is in natgas wells. I'd imagine a good chunk of new wells are unprofitable at this price. I'd guess a fair number of drill campaigns are being adjusted.
Natgas, further signs that Freeport is inching its way to re-start:
Freeport LNG Restart: BP-chartered tanker Kmarin Diamond has become the first tanker to dock at the export plant since the June 8th fire that shut it down#LNG #ONGT #NatGas #Shale #OOTT #Houston pic.twitter.com/xdDh8W8qxd
— Sergio Chapa (@SergioChapa) February 10, 2023
ETCC ($.895) Anybody tempted here? Almost all the way back down to where on could have realistically found out about it. The contract was indeed huge. Even if it's spread out over many years or way less than the headline amount, still might be a big thing that has some lasting effect. I'd be more tempted if the company was already profitable.
BDCO Coming right back down as well. It might make a run one of these days, but this wasn't the time. I would have been better off selling when you did. No Form 4 filed so don't know who the large buyer was. They've disappeared now.
ETCC - What an odd share structure in addition to the crazy news, which is light on details. 60% of the shares are controlled by two trusts. CEO owns 2%, CFO owns none. Company doesn't appear to have been profitable and looks like they have debt due, most of cash is restricted. Odd all the way around. I wonder if an offering is coming.
Bing search incorporating ChatGPT? If this thread is true, might really give a boost to AI stocks if people can try and see results for themselves without having to sign up for anything:
Major leak!! 🚨
— Thomas Sorheim (@ThomasSorheim) February 4, 2023
Microsoft integrates ChatGPT in Bing.
This looks crazy!
See all the SCREENSHOTS in this thread 🧵👇#chatgpt #ai #bing #microsoft #leak
Yes, full L2 and when I place my order it usually shows up in full. Occasionally I'll place some odd amount of shares like 13k rather than 10k, just to see if it shows, and it nearly always shows.
Let's say there's 10k shares on the bid and I place 17k share order at the same price. If the order goes to the same market maker it will usually then show 27k on the bid. If it goes to different market maker, I'll just show up as 17k alone with that mm, in addition to the other guy's 10k at the same price with different mm.
Very rarely, but once in a while especially on super thin stocks, it'll go to the one market maker on the stock and not show . . . .but I usually still get executed for at least some if it trades at that price. I don't know the mechanics of it all, but it literally feels like some guy is asleep at a screen and once a trade goes off, alarm bells go off, he's startled awake, spills his coffee doing so, and then gets back to work. Maybe some computer program at the mm literally goes into like a sleep mode when there's no trades for a long time or something, I don't know
The straddles seem like a good risk. I'm kind of talking myself out of buying BOIL. While I still like the fundamentals of natgas long term, I would expect a rather long bottoming process. KOLD and BOIL are great during steep moves, not so much for a long bottom. And the unlevered natgas etfs all send out K-1s, which are such a pain. I'll keep thinking about it. Don't do straight futures much these days, so I may just steer clear altogether.
I successfully traded in and out of both SD and SBOW on the way up, but when I started hearing the outlandish price projections and then Freeport shutdown, it seemed like the mania was in trouble. I sold and didn't buy back again. Didn't buy any KOLD tho, dang!
Good luck on the straddles!
Seems like a solid plan, I'm actually looking at the Feb 10 straddle on KOLD myself
r59, were you able to close out your KOLD Feb3 straddle at a profit, or is it still on the line? I'd guess the Feb 10th straddle will work out well
BOIL - If natgas goes into the 1's, I'll probably join you on BOIL. But my mindset will be prepared to hold it for several months, which I hate doing on these leveraged ETFs becuz they slowly get eaten away by the rolling, commissions, and slippage on the futures.
You guys may have heard this before, but Etrade is by far the best on pinks. Usually the day a stock comes off the expert market, it is tradeable online (I just placed an order on WRMA to be sure).
I had to move away from TDA many years ago because I'd do all this work researching a stock and then I'd go to trade and they said I had to call in, or sometimes wouldn't allow me to trade it at all. And it was totally random, even some listed stocks, not just pinkies.
Before the whole expert market fiasco, Etrade would let me trade anything on the OTC, never a problem. Now, they only allow closing trades on expert market stocks (can be done online), but can't buy them
LMB ($13.35) Market starting to like this one again, hitting new highs. I remember they did an offering at like $12 maybe a year ago, I think. I thought for sure it was headed a lot higher, seemed to have everything going for it. Price moved too fast and never bought any -- thank goodness, becuz they crapped out a horrible quarter and next time I looked the price was at like $6. Now, CEO retiring and in-house guy moving up. Their ODR (owner direct relationships) strategy seems to be doing better, and maybe just took longer than expected. I remember liking the changes they were implementing.
Still not totally convinced and price doesn't seem super cheap, but this has been a long, slow move up. Not just a one month thing. Back on the watch list.
BDCO Yeah it's definitely still a speculation, not an investment. With most of their cash going to satisfy lenders, they need to re-build some cash reserves just in case of refinery downtime from a fire or explosion or anything like that. It's improving, but could still go bankrupt and not out of the woods yet, in my eyes.
BDCO - Had a 30k share buyer a couple days ago, and there was a 25k order this morning that kept moving up the bid until he got filled. I'm hoping that's more buying by the CEO and would love to see a Form 4 in the next few days. Of course, could also just be people chasing in a hot market and price is about to collapse. But those were pretty large orders for this particular stock.
If next earnings release is good and/or shows paying down debt, I still like the chances of a prolonged move here
SI - Yeah, it's especially true on heavily shorted stocks. When the shorts have to cover, the thing can run wild for a few days. Even if the thing eventually goes to zero, it may have caused you five heart attacks in the process. I respect the people who can do it, but it's a very tough game.
EVs - GM and TSLA
Two items of interest (for disclosure, I am not "for" or "against" electric vehicles, don't own an EV and not currently looking to buy one. Hold no positions in GM or TSLA, just watching the EV thing unfold. This is more about the cars than the stocks.)
1) US News and World Report came out with their "Best Cars For The Money" and the Chevy Bolt won two categories (typical of many positive reviews I've seen on the Bolt):
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/best-cars-for-the-money
2) Clark Howard is a longtime consumer reporter guy. Doesn't accept "free" products from companies, always goes out and buys stuff with his own money so he can remain totally objective (not to say he's always correct, just tries to remain unbiased in his opinion which could still be wrong). For his show, he always goes out and buys the latest technology in everything to give feedback to his large audience as to whether it's worth it or not. His large audience also gives him feedback on their current experiences with companies and products. He bought the first Nissan Leaf and talked about how horrible the battery issues were, basically the car was a lemon, etc. He's driven a Tesla for 10yrs and loves it! This is his current take on EVs and Teslas. This was recorded before the latest Tesla price cuts and it also sounds like Howard may be a little against Musk's politics. But I focus on the feedback he's getting from his audience on Tesla customer service. Who knows if it means much and, of course, your mileage may vary, I'm sure plenty of people have positive service experiences. It's just one guy's opinion:
BOIL - You're a braver man than I am lol. Hope it works out. You're probably already aware of this, but others may not be. Of course the past is no guarantee of the future, but long-term natgas chart shows that, historically, sharp spikes up are followed by sharp spikes down. By any historical measure this has been about as steep as any decline. It'll end at some point:
META - I don't know if it's smart money or lucky money, but found this interesting:
Wow, looks like $META bonds accurately predicted today's monster sales beat.
— junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) February 1, 2023
Bonds traded up from mid 70s in October to nearly 90 in January.
Remember folks, follow the smart money#Bonds pic.twitter.com/KpgiU1mPIp
larrybaz, exactly, me too. In fact, it's usually when I'm the most confident and the most strident in my belief . . . that I often suffer my biggest losses.
Not meant as a personal attack and not meant literally. I was talking about the "expert" talking heads in the media, not anyone on our little board. (On the SD board, I too, suggested that you never know, prices could come way down)
Yeah, I'm definitely using the colloquial "all", not meant literally. It's like someone saying, "everyone's on tiktok". I'm not, but I know the point the person is making.
Almost everyone was predicting a new higher level of oil and gas prices, and almost no one was saying, "if this or that happened, natgas prices could collapse."
Natgas, yeah I'm thinking springtime might be the time to re-enter some natgas stocks, SD in particular becuz it has plenty of cash to survive and no debt. News might be horrible at that point.
Energy this year has been a good reminder of just how wrong the "experts" can be. When they were all crowing about oil to $300 and natgas to $20, that was the top (at least in the short term). And as the saying goes, nobody rings a bell at the top.
Best to stay humble and acknowledge to oneself that "I can always be wrong." Because if you participate in the markets long enough, eventually they will humble you.
But eventually they'll need customers and revenue. I like the concept, but see very little in the way of customers and revenue thus far. We'll see if those things come.