One more thing - the flight has a Kalitta flight number because they are contracted to ferry the plane with their pilots.

"It's still flying on Kallita's tail #, for whatever reason."

CKS9706 isn't actually a Kalitta tail number. This seems to be a Kalitta flight ID number, using three digits from the Baltia tail number as part of it - the "706" part. I've noticed that other Kalitta flights seem to have flight ID numbers on FlightAware starting with CKS - airline identifier for Kalitta - followed by a digit or two that are apparently the flight number.

Great view of Mt. Rushmore coming up out the right side. Did Abe just wink?

FlightAware link again:

Per Variant2 earlier...

Direct link for the flight:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CKS9706

At 1:26 pm EDT Baltia's 747 #N706BL was over South Dakota at 36 thousand feet flying at 423 knots (486 mph) ground speed, about 1/3 of the way to Victorville.

No! No! We're not waiting for the 2012 vintage. 2011!

At 12:18 pm EDT Baltia's N706BL was at its cruising altitude of 36 thousand feet flying at 430 knots heading west over Lake Michigan toward Victorville, and with venison about to be served.

Yes. They delayed takeoff to go deer hunting. Then they ran into a bunch of animal rights activist trying to protect Bambi. But they blew them away with a little jetwash. So yes, venison in first.

Listen in:

“Lansing radio, Boeing heavy seven zero six bravo lima.”

“Boeing heavy six bravo lima, Lansing, go ahead.”

“Lansing, six bravo lima, activate IFR flight plan Oscoda to Victorville.”

“Six bravo lima, climb to six thousand on heading two four zero. Maintain VFR separation and report at six thousand. Climb to flight level 34, heading two five two direct Madison…”

[six bravo lima confirms]

“Oscoda Unicom, Boeing heavy seven zero six bravo lima, at Kalitta parking, taxiing for takeoff runway two four. Will hold short.”

“Oscoda Unicom, Cessna five two three one easy on long final runway two four.”

“Oscoda Unicom, Boeing six bravo lima, caution all aircraft. A small herd of deer is crossing the active runway.”

“Cessna three one easy, roger. I have deer in sight.”

“They’re clear now. The deer are clear of the active.”

“Cessna three one easy, turning off runway two four.”

“Oscoda Unicom, Boeing heavy six bravo lima, taking active runway two four for takeoff.”

Kalitta is apparently contracted to do the ferry flight with their pilots.

With your name, we should be asking you!

My guess: AM.

There won't be anything on FlightAware until about an hour or so before takeoff when the flight plan gets filed with the FAA.

The FAA employees involved with the Baltia certification process are not affected by the FAA furlough. And my understanding is that getting the ferry permit isn't affected either.

What broker do you recommend for registering/handling your unrestricted stock?

It'll be this year.

You were misinformed.

I don't think the slippage is due to the paint slot sequencing, but due to the few remaining issues with SAI revisions. Until those are approved by the FAA, the manuals cannot be approved. And until the manuals are approved, training cannot proceed. So as it has been for most of the last year, the key to progress is final SAI approval. Once that happens, the schedule for hiring, training, and proving flights can then be released from being on hold.

Conversations with Baltia staff.

To clarify the engine situation...

Four engines were leased for N705BL and were used to fly it to Maylasia. After the better-condition Northwest 747 was bought (which became N706BL) then the 4 leased engines were removed from N705BL in Maylasia and shipped to Oscoda, MI to be put on N706BL at the completion of its C check. There was a delay in mounting the engines because a directive from the FAA required that the engine mounts be removed from the plane and sent out for inspection and possible overhaul. That has apparently been completed, and the engines are now being put on N706BL (might actually be completed by now). Once the engines are mounted and tested, then the plane will be ready to go to Victorville, CA for painting.

Apparently the next available slot in the painter's schedule starts on June 21. Hopefully we can make that. Then 3-4 weeks to do the paint job.

See bottom of post #9544 for explanation of status of N705BL.

Hopefulflyer asked: "Who is really confident in this?"

I am. Three things to keep in mind:

1. Baltia cannot control its destiny until it receives FAA certification. The extremely complicated and unpredictable NEW process for getting that certification is now almost completed.

2. SEC rules prohibit a company from giving out speculative information that could be construed as attempting to manipulate the stock price. It can really only send out PR about what HAS happened, not what they think will happen - except within the context of required reports to the DOT & SEC. So they have to be very careful what they say. Even doling out bits of information about the progress of the second plane's "C check" (done) could be construed by the SEC as attempting to manipulate the market. Baltia can't take chances on this, or they could get shut down before they start. So they're being wisely cautious about what they report.

3. A Boeing 747 is one of the most complicated machines on the planet. Doing a "C check" was bound to turn up some things that needed fixing, even though this particular aircraft had been superbly maintained by Northwest. Those things which delayed completion of the C check are apparently now corrected/updated. Of course, those delays meant losing a slot at the paint shop, so painting had to be rescheduled for the next available slot, which I understand is soon.

But again, as heartening as it will be to see the plane painted and flying back to New York in its Baltia colors next month, that isn't holding anything up right now. It's the final FAA review of the SAI's (Safety Attributes Inspection - over 3000 topic items) that is the key to the timing of training, proving flights, certification and the inaugural flight.

Regarding the plane in Malaysia - it apparently is in an indefinite holding pattern until after Baltia starts flying. It was flown there to get a "D Check" (a far more extensive maintenance program than a C Check). But after flying it there, when the Northwest plane became available - a plane that only required a C Check before going back into airline service - it became obvious that the excellently maintained Northwest plane would be a better and more cost effective option for launching the airline. So the focus shifted there and the 747 in Malaysia was parked.

Fortunately, the Baltia management is flexible and quick on its feet, and able to take advantage of better options when they arise.

Very sorry about that.

Please leave his Baltia photos online and his links to them.

Final updates to SAI's, it seems. When that's done and approved by the FAA, then the floodgates should open. That, not the painting of the plane, is the key to progress.

Oscoda, MI

June will be an important month on several fronts, all positive.

No. Soon.

I hope you're right. But I heard that the FAA will make one more pass at reviewing the manuals after they are formally submitted in their entirety, and that this final look could take more than a month.

That may be just a bit overly optimistic, as I understand that the FAA will be going over the manuals with a "fine-tooth-comb" even though the FAA has seen them repeatedly during their evolution.

It may take more than a month to get FAA approval. Fortunately, work on preparing the N706BL aircraft proceeds while the manuals are being reviewed for approval, and one 747 flight crew is apparently already on board.

Hopefully, the manuals will be approved just about the time N706BL comes out of the paint shop and flies to JFK (or soon after). Then the final certification activities can proceed, fairly swiftly (compared to the excruciating process of running the SAI gauntlet).

Probably not that long. But it depends on how long the FAA takes to give final approval to the manuals after submission. I've heard from reliable sources that they could be flying a schedule within 2 months after final manuals approval.

I've been told that the company won't start hiring flight crews until their manuals are finally approved by the FAA. That's because the crew training is spelled out in some of those manuals and must have final approval before they can proceed with training.

Everything hinges on the approval of the manuals. Once the FAA approves them, then Baltia will have more control over their timeline, and can then move ahead fairly swiftly.

Thanks for that info.

Route assignments by the DOT are airline-specific. I don't think they can be sold by one airline to another. They'd have to buy the whole airline to get the route, and that would benefit the stockholders if the price was right.

By the way, the prior tailstrike incidents of the JAL and China Air Lines 747s were also recorded in the NTSB database, so if there had been tailstrike or similar incidents with either of Baltia's planes, they should appear there also.

Where are your facts to back up your charge of "flying death traps"? You even claim one of Baltia's 747s had a crash landing somewhere. Which one? Where? When? What were the circumstances?

All Boeing 747 accidents and incidents, no matter the nationality of the airline or were in the world the incident/accident occurs are recorded in the NTSB database identified by the aircraft's manufacturer's serial number. There are no incidents or accidents recorded in this database for either of Baltia's two 747s.

There are just 3 cases worldwide where 747s broke up in midair and crashed form non-bomb related causes. Two were due to impropertly repaired prior tail-strikes (JAL and China Air Lines), and one was due to a manufacturing design defect (TWA). None had causes due to aircraft age.

Prove me wrong.

Where are your facts to back up your allegations? Obviously, if the Russian mafia had been involved with this, they wouldn't have allowed stock to be sold to the public because of exposure to the SEC. Plus if the R. mafia was really involved, Baltia wouldn't have needed to sell stock to raise what they've raised from stock sales - pocket change for the R. mafia.

Another positive cash flow factor with the refurbished 747:

...the huge freight-hauling capacity in the below-decks cargo hold, as compared with say, a 767ER or its Airbus equivalent. Freight revenue will likely be a strong cash generator with the 747 on this route. The cost of aircraft purchase + refurb + maint + 3rd flight crew member + higher fuel burn per mile is actually much lower than comparable cost factors with a new smaller plane due to its having several times the acquisition cost, and yet the potential revenue per mile stands to be much greater with the 747.

I've seen this kind of formula work very well with freight haulers, and in this situation it could work well here too.

Yes, but lets save the chrome spinners until it hits $2!

Seriously, cash flow is the key. And occupied seat-miles/cycle is one of the keys to positive cash flow here. That's were an old refurbished 747 flying the long JFK - St. Pete route has it all over a new Airbus A320 flying much shorter domestic routes against vigorous competition.

Sustained positive cash flow can indeed give Baltia the means to solve the dilution problem, and it looks like that's what their strategy is designed to accomplish. So there is some steak here too. It's not just all sizzle.

You're talking about steak, I'm talking about sizzle, and at least for the short term, it's the sizzle that sells, not the steak.

Once it starts flying, the Baltia story will have tons of sizzle, whereas the Jetblue story has become boring. It's all about perception, and how long that perception can be maintained.

Regarding the aircraft, what plane LOOKS more impressive - a new two engined Airbus 320 or a giant four engine Boeing 747 with a new paint job? And remember, 747s are still being manufactured - a new version was just announced by Boeing. And its flying over the Atlantic to an exciting city. Perception, perception, perception. It's just like "location, location, location" in real estate.

The concept of market caps probably has no meaning to the vast majority of individuals who buy stocks. Institutions? Well, they can and have been be bowled over by perception too, if it has enough solid, consistent sizzle - and IF the cash flow performance is there. Cash flow performance is far more important than market cap, short or long term.

Right now Jet Blue is worth $6.30 per share and back in October 2010 was over $7.50. How is $2 more than JBLU's current PPS, as you seem to claim? Maybe you haven't followed JBLU lately.

Note all of the "what if's" that I said would have to go in Baltia's favor, and also that I said "touch" $2 - and with no reverse split. A positive cash flow with no debt is going to look very good. With the right PR roll-out, due to its exclusive non-stop route, and if it flies essentially full, then the emotion in the market could see the steep and rapid runup for BLTA that JBLU had early in its career - it even surpassed $30 per share in late 2003. For at least a while, the romance of the airline business can make an airline stock defy gravity - it's happened many times. BUT, after JBLU touched $30, it flamed out and dropped big time, fast. THAT is a cautionary pattern to be wary of.

Just looking at all the numbers and airline comparables, and considering a lot of "IFs" go their way - IF they start flying a schedule by late June, IF revenue hits their projections for the first three months, IF there are no technical hangups during schedule startup, IF they are awarded the Moscow route, IF the economy doesn't take another huge nose dive, and IF oil stays below $120/barrel, then by the end of Sept. Baltia stock will touch $2.

Or so says the Oracle of Delphi.