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Bad memory What happened?
Economic News is Positive
QQQ back to near 55.50 which I see as a major pivot, will see if now resistance or can be recovered.
Dec 15 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/10 366K 390K 385K
Dec 15 8:30 AM Continuing Claims12/03 3603K 3650K 3599K
Dec 15 8:30 AM PPI Nov 0.3% 0.1% -0.3%
Dec 15 8:30 AM Core PPI Nov 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Dec 15 8:30 AM EmpireManufacturing Dec 9.53 3.0 0.61
Dec 15 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q3
-$110.3B -$110.0B -$118.0B
SP Futures 1200-1215-1210-1215
You can see the 1210 test of support in the FTSE chart while the test at 1200 was at Midnight. Euro also attempting a recovery of 1.30. Would watch the FTSE/Euro charts for breakouts and SP a recovery of 1215. SP resistance levels 1215/1220/1225/1230 as seen in the MKTSS chart so a lot of resistance yet to overcome. I would expect some bouncing like the FTSE chart but let's see if today we can get a breakout and some recovered higher support.
QQQ premarket low 55 high 55.30
Good Trading!
Happy Holidays!
Remember to cherish every moment with friends and family and accept every gift being grateful for what you have received.
God Bless!
Still expect OEX popup
Of course the way the Markets have been trading there is a lot of caution for another 2 days of downside.
If can get a close above QQQ 55 and SP 1215 could make for a bullish day tomorrow.
Had an errand, missed midday popup
Pretty sure I would have exited there
Didn't have a sell target for it.
Great trade, Congrats!
Added TNA 39.10
Watching 39 for support here.
Really needed to get covered calls sold yesterday before the Close.
If we bounce I expect short covering rally into Friday, jmho
TNA support at 39 for now
Yesterday the TNA 41 Calls were selling for $2 so that would be targeted support. Really needed to have gotten those covered calls sold yesterday and all would be good here lol.
Sounds Good
Yesterday I was anticipating a 2 day rally thinking we were at support eod. I am still thinking that today and we are at a better support level near 1200 QQQ 55. I think if the QQQ and SPX could get some recovery here, along with the Euro 1.30, we could see a big short covering rally into Friday. Just my speculation though.
Enjoy the Day!
Great strategy
I forgot to check the Buy Blockers yesterday and picked up some TNA at the then lod. Wanted to sell some covered calls eod but had to leave. I think we do indeed get the 60min cycle coming up pretty soon and TNA again near the lod but I am not going to add to my position.
Good Trading!
Much appreciated
Thanks Roy, bookmarked your board
Testing TSON an News
Any opinions on this stock? The News looks good and prior spikes last year gained some momentum through January.
Looks like 2.50 the resistance to breakout?
News link http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TranS1-Inc-Announces-pz-1899543466.html?x=0
SP Futures 1225-1215-1220
You can see the morning bounce from support in the FTSE chart.
If you remember yesterday's FTSE rally attempt the morning started out very similar with a retest of it's prior open as support and then a day long rally until 3pm. Anticipation would be a repeat of that pattern. Watch the Euro at 1.30 and the FTSE at 5400-5500.
QQQ premarket low 55.53, SPXU premarket high 14.50 so back to yesterday's bounce point for now also.
Just remember to be Safe with your trades.
Enjoy the Day!
USD$ Upper Bollinger break=Market low?
From what I see on the USD$ chart it looks as though every upper bb band breakout the Markets make a bottom?
Why this last breakout doesn't equate to the Markets being at prior lows I am not sure?
Something is changing or else the Market are lagging and will eventually trip back to Aug/Oct lows.
Looking for the Bull flag now
Picked up the TNA as QQQ 55.50 was tagged on my computer as support and the SP tapping 1220 at the same time looked good. I am also not sure if I am using the Options quotes correctly but I had previously seen the hod on SPXU 13 Calls at 1.50 to target 14.50 resistance and TNA at 43 the 43 Call was trading at 2.30 targeting 40.70 as support so everything seemed to line up for me. A lot will depend on if this last week of trading is a Bull flag that will retest the top range of the Bowtie or not. I wanted to get some covered Calls sold before the close but had to leave.
How we open tomorrow should give us some indication of direction, either we hold support above the island gap or we don't.
If the QQQ recovers 56 and SP over 1240 then I believe 1250 will be tested again, and possibly continue higher, we shall see.
Long TNA here, QQQ support 55.50
Will see if this test of the lower Bowtie gets some support.
TNA usually a late day rally on down days, we shall see.
14.50 was target for SPXU, too bad missed entry.
Will see if 14 retested as support and how much TNA might recover.
TNA at 40.70
QQQ potential support 55.50
Will see if TNA gets it's late day momo going
DAX worked, FTSE not
Need to add the ] to the FTSE chart
Yes, I am really liking the Forks from all the charts and would look for any spike low here to catch some buying to keep us in the trading range. The morning gap fill saw some buying support and I still believe any higher low will catch some buying support. The trading range should continue to widen if we copy the Bowtie.
Yes, I see it there
I was wondering if that would happen with the speculation of the Euro being broken up. We saw it before when the USD$ had declined when the Euro had strength that the Markets started following the EURO. It Looks as though indeed the USD$ might be back into the lead here.
We will have to see if it is a permanent switch or just due to the recent Euro/Bond speculation.
Tess was calling me to help, missed the spike to add SPXU, just watching now as 14 has been resistance.
No Volatility yet
I think the recent consolidation has put a damper on the VIX for now. Trend looks Up but all it takes is some further Euro speculation to get the VIX back into full swing mode. I am really surprised that this am the Markets completely ignored the bottom falling out of the Euro. Might be some programming change we talked about where the Markets are going to try and reset to follow the USD$ now? I think the buying is indeed coming in because of the Put volume as most have their positions hedged, as do I, in case there is a change of direction.
MKTSS has even reset back to the 100sma so this pivot could still go either way, but I anticipate still big moves in both directions, we shall see :)
Morning Steve, Thanks
Yes, all I hear lately about the VIX is people speculating with buying Jan Calls on it. It looks as though most of the bottoms have been Market tops so I am leaning a bit towards the downside here, especially with the Euro drop. I think all the speculation of the Santa Rally and upside to SP 1330 might have everyone caught looking Long and all they get is an empty bag for Christmas, jmho. I think that the volatility continues and any spike high/spike low will keep reversing much like Sept trading. The Par near 30 might keep the sentiment Bullish but I still anticipate selling at most every top for now. I was looking at adding SPXU this am but will watch for what reaction the FOMC gives. I am still thinking ramp but will sell the news either on the announcement or any morning spike high. The same if we sell the news, it might offer a spike low in the am that gets bought. I think the low VIX is showing just that, no real direction anticipated until it happens?
Enjoy the Day!
Still thinking ramp into FOMC
Seems to be the only pull the Market has with the Euro dropping.
My anticipation would be a spike on the report and then a big selloff, possibly mirror the Euro drop.
Only other indication for upside here would be if the Euro is putting in an exhaustion move to downside and the Markets are trying to trade ahead of a bounce?
There might also be some speculation the FOMC actually announces something worthwhile?
Was looking at adding SPXU in the am but didn't execute it.
Any spike high on FOMC I will look to add again. For now 14 is resistance for SPXU and Markets finding slightly higher support is offering Long buyers some motivation. Whether that motivation changes on the FOMC announce we will have to see.
I got home too late
Looks as though the late day surge started just after 2:30/3:00.
I see the TNA lod was somewhere below 42.50, where I wanted to target a trade but didn't want to put one in and have it stopped out at 42. The TNA 44 Calls actually closed near $2 so I think I would have hedged at eod with them rather than the 43, protected to 42 downside and 46 upside gains. Markets have certainly been on a whiplash spree. Not sure if you have read the Bowtie posts on MKTSS but I am expecting the widening price swings to keep happening.
Good Trading!
SP Futures 1230-1235-1238-1235
Futures trying to build a bit of an uptrend as seen in the FTSE chart. Looking as though 1238/1240 will be the resistance for now so watch for a breakout there but 1250 will be the next level of resistance. You can see in the SPX chart how each lower high has been getting sold off but the fact that the Futures moved back over 1235 and held support there looks bullish for now.
Just remember to be Safe with your trades.
Enjoy the Day!
Thanks Ken, much appreciated
Yes, I already sold SPXU 13 Calls
If I pick up TNA and write calls on it also I would be covered a bit in either direction.
Right now I am just 20% SPXU and the covered calls on it.
I started watching the covered calls back in Nov when SPXU was having big swings. Still not used to using them but the last 2 months they would have worked well for a hedge. Thinking the same thing with TNA here especially with the high premium short term.
I will watch for 2:30 reversal
That is if I am around to watch at that time.
I was looking at the TNA Dec 43 Calls trading at 2.25 and considering a Buy/Write at that strike leaving until Friday for movement, protected to 40.75 on downside.
Good Trading!
Manipulate to Marketability
It is all a manipulation to keep the products marketable. It happens with everything but especially with food products. You are used to going to the grocery store and buying the same products for the same price. So when you go to the store to get a package of bacon you only see the similar price, not that it is now 12 oz rather than 16. The yogurt cups your wife loves are on sale, awesome, and you never notice that the size of the cup has grown slightly smaller. Your favorite breakfast glazed cinnamon rolls are now 3 to a package rather than 4. The lunch meat and cheeses you buy are the same way, all slightly smaller packaging but you are used to the price so it seems Ok. Take a look at the last package of frozen shrimp you bought and remember it used to be 16 oz also. Rather than raising prices to keep profits the same the vendors are reducing the amount of product so that when you buy it the perception is the same. Only now people are starting to notice as even with the smaller packaging the prices are rising. Now when you look at that package you are saying 'Hey, I am paying more now and getting less?'. But it has been going on for years relatively unnoticed. The younger generation doesn't have a clue about it. They pay what they pay and don't really care. It will be interesting if they did a poll of the elementary, high school, colleges and see what percentage actually had observed the change?
SP Futures 1250-1245-1240-1245
The 1245 resistance can be seen in the FTSE tops. Once again watch the Euro for a potential double bottom or a breakdown. Back to watching the trading range 1240-1260 with 1250 the pivot at the 100sma, so back below it here. The Markets have been drawn to 1250 but just be careful about any short term trades leading into expiration. For now the anticipation is another double bottom bounce from higher support at 1240, leaving a short term inverted H&S. Whether that will motivate the Markets to move higher is still uncertain. Remember the Bowtie, it is unusual to have a widening flag and remember it could still break either direction. Use some caution with any trades Long or Short and often it is Safest to take profits if a LOD at EOD and Support for Shorts and a HOD at EOD and Resistance for Longs. So use good judgement and don't get caught in the trap of wanting More.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Ya, Don't rely on the Broker
I remember in 1987 I called my broker middle of Sept and asked him if it looked like the Markets were having problems and he said No. The Friday before Black Monday I called and said "The Market sure took a hit today should I sell?" and the answer was No. At the Open on Monday the Market was down and I called and asked "Should I sell?" and the answer was 'No, it can't be that bad'. So I held, and when the Market was down 500 pts I called again and of course I got 'You might as well hold now as it will eventually come back'. He was right, but it took over 10 years to come back. About a week later I went into his office and asked him how he had done personally that day, as I had lost over 50% of my portfolio value, and his answer was 'I did Ok as I sold 2 weeks prior'. I was Floored that he had sold and yet every time I had asked he was telling me Not to Sell.
Ever since then I have had little faith in what a broker has said.
It is your money and You need to learn how to protect it, especially if you want to trade it, as you don't want it to be a gamble.
Be Safe and have a Wonderful Week!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
Not past use, future use
I am not worried about if it was used in the past. I like the defined trading range and the peaks/bottoms on the RSI. Would the RSI readings circled in red be something similar to what you would watch with SR60 triggers at 40/60? I know it is a different timeframe but that might be helpful if looking for a longer term trade? Also the fact it might give a different perspective to compare with the IWM chart, since the funds sometimes are slightly delayed to the Index movement?
So not worried about the past but whether the chart could be useful for future trades/targets.
Hope the week starts out well for you!
Hi Ken, yes, still MKTSS
I am not sure what to make of THQI, if it recovers $1 or heads for .50? I know you have a good eye for trend reversals on the small cap stocks so wanted to get your opinion of it and what to watch for. DI/ADX is giving a potential low signal with most all the other indicators at lows. Other than basic price movement would you rather want to see a rising MACD/Stoch signal on a small cap?
Dec to Jan is usually small cap hunting season and many can get running to upside. Not sure if THQI will be one of them, just looking for some insights as far as what you would look for in a Good one?
Good Trading!
TREND1 posted this RUT chart
I have added it to the Ibox on MKTSS as it looks to be very useful information. I believe it will keep updated.
Props to TREND1!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69523895
GF was going to get a Dynavox
She had a stroke in 2005 and lost a lot of her speech ability.
The rehab had her trying the Dynavox speech assistance touch computer where she would touch images or try to type a word and it would say it for her. She had a hard time working it and she really hates computers so she didn't like it. The other reason was the cost, at that time something like 8k of which her insurance would pay 6k but left us with 2k. Bottom line was it worked to some degree if you really wanted to learn it and liked computers but it was just too expensive for what it would do.
I like it
Yes, I have heard many with the same overall bullish bias since historically the Markets have always gone long eventually, with the bearish moves only lasting short term.
Yes, I have not been looking at % of price as a stop limit, usually just targeting a price slightly below the last support level. I really should start trying to calculate it as a % to help limit the amount of risk, or at least be aware of the % of risk. I have been looking at the profit side the same way, $ value rather than % value. I think if I start to adjust to % values I will be more likely to have better consistent trades.
I am a bit surprised at the shares difference between IWM/UWM and TNA. I was not expecting to see nearly a 2:1 bias between them. I guess that is where the price and leverage come into play and why I have been attracted to the higher leveraged funds. Where the gains to the amount of investment might not be that much difference the 2:1 has me psychologically drawn to them, must be the gambler in me.
Thanks for the insights
Sounds Good Jon
Yes, I believe the biggest reason most trade the funds they do is that they are comfortable with them. I am still not comfortable with TNA/SPXU but am hopefully starting to get there.
Yes, I am probably wrong about the forgiving part, and might have it backward. What I was trying to relate was say a .25 stop set on IWM would be more forgiving than a .25 stop on TNA/SPXU. The higher leverage funds you need a wider stop and when it does hit the loss can be a higher percentage. Looking at IWM chart it does have some volatile swings and setting a stop for it would be just as difficult to adjust. I see in the Ibox you are at the point I am, not setting stops at times. I know in Oct I was constantly being stopped out. It did make for a terrible swing trade with SPXU in Nov though. I held the trade through a 2 week long vacation and was definitely glad I was not in front of the monitor to watch it, something like a 10k swing, Yikes.
Yes, right now 1-5 days is about where I would like to be with my trades, especially with the Market volatility. I would Love to catch a trend like Oct/Nov but for now my trades are short term. I think that has been some of my problem with missing the longer trends, that I only look short term? The Goal is to just replenish my IRA as I make withdrawals so whether it is short term or long term it doesn't really matter right now, as long as I can limit losses and keep some cash on hand.
Yes, I have looked at the SR60 chart and like what I see there.
I will especially be interested in how you view Holding a trade, either overnight or longer term. The Futures overnight moves often have me sitting on my hands and by the time the Market opens most of the move is over. That is unless the overnight move has hit a support reversal area like Friday morning and the day offers some relief rally.
Looking forward to your posts, Enjoy the Day!
Look at Charts 1-3
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-food-stamps-china-inflation-and-more-2011-12-09?siteid=rss&rss=1
The food stamps one really bothers me the most. Is it really because there are that many more in need or are there just that many more living off the system? I don't want to sound prejudiced but here in AZ I often see families of Mexicans, 1-5 kids, buying $500-$600 of groceries with their food stamp EBT cards. Most of them don't speak English and were not born in the USA but it only takes One child born here for the entire family to qualify for assistance. It is especially very difficult to watch some gang banger tatooed idiot buying nothing but junk food for his 'baby'. It is also sad to go into most any local/state/fed assistance building and see it is primarily hispanics helping hispanics. Probably not the same in most other states but when was the last time you went to the local elementary school and looked at the student population?
Anyway, Charts 2 and 3 look very similar to pre 2008 bottom.
So definitely a lot to worry about, especially if the 'movement' is to look for the hand out rather than to offer a hand to work.