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Vote = 5 The Fed has openly discussed its plans to intervene in the stock market, bond market, metals, etc.
The daily Repo's are also a regular means that the fed intervenes in the stock market.
"Can't time the market"
One of the reasons I think the next downturn will be much quicker and more severe than the last is that I think people actually did learn a lesson from the last 3 years.
My opinion is that the market isnt "allowed" to go down much lately because anything that resembles a bonafide selloff or trend change is going to be sold hard by everyone, all at once.
But for now we are back to trying to justify AMZN at $18 Bln mkt cap in an economy that is slightly improving on massive increases in debt.
Let's all see how close the top we can time it. :)
D
Gold has been a good inverse dollar trade. Also oil/energy stocks.
I'm waiting for the dollar to reverse down from around 102 to get long gold again. I think you can also short the stock market at that point and profit. Note that IF the dollar would reverse down from 102 it will leave a big head and shoulders on it.
D
The dollar could fall again based on an increasing national debt and growing trade deficit. Inflation wont be necessary to bring the dollar to its knees in that case.
And despite the current modest improvent in the economy the debt and deficits are continuing to grow.
D.
The $20 Bln the Fed pumped in Friday and the $12B today are also pretty good market stabilizers :)
If the power failure was not terrorist related then Greenspan overcompensated once again imo.
M
Estimates have the pace of spending on water infrastructure to be $260 Bln short of what is needed over the next 20 years.
Water pipes are 75 - 100 years old on average in the US and they are getting ready to start failing in masse.
Looks like gap down over a point on 30yr bond today.
Next fib target looks like 102 or so for the long bond.
D
<watch bonds tomorrow.>
Are you expecting bonds to resume the tankage?
D
1929/1987 market comparisons
Both cases today was the day with higher low/ higher high as shown on the arrow.
1929
http://www.georgeslezak.com/myscreen.htm
1987
http://www.georgeslezak.com/myscreen2.htm
Guess it means if we gap down and break today's lows its time to sell.
M
Bonds - they are a tanking
Holy chit some big guys have to be getting killed. How do they have money to throw at an overvalued stock market?
Confused
DAO
There is also a huge miner strike in S.A. I think about every mine is affected except AU since they cut a deal with the union.
M
VIX under 20
Time to short imo.
M
Thanks for those charts.
There is a lot of good work shared on this board and yours is among the best.
M.
Four week cycle chart has tomorrow as down day on the SP.
And down all next week. fwiw
M.
Crude chart has $37 /bl written all over it imo.
Not sure why or how oil could get that high but the chart sure looks like its going there.
bought RDC today and may pick up a couple more drillers tomorrow.
M
"I wonder if other have had a change to talk to people in the supply chains to see how orders are going and what the feeling is for business right now"
If insiders are any indication then business sucks. Record insider sales last quarter, more like massive dumping.
VIX is in the "Lull em to Sleep" formation. Looks like its going lower so I expect market will get pumped up some more before the holiday.
CAN THE U.S. RETURN TO A GOLD STANDARD? By Alan Greenspan
http://www.gold-eagle.com/greenspan011098.html
<that would prevent the world economic growth to no more than that value>
I'm not sure why the currencies would have to be pegged 1 to 1 to gold? I thought the idea of a gold standard was to have a way to measure exchange rates of world currencies and to have a finite way to determine and control the money supply, not to limit its creation.
Anyway the story about gold being only a commodity is a total joke. Ask the central banks how many loans have been made against gold in their vaults. And why did they use gold as collateral for the loans? Gold is most definitely a currency.
M
My only bearish post for the weekend..
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19068358
side note: There's basically no talk of a hard down in the stock market on the message boards I follow. Even my broker who has issued crash alerts in the past is not concerned at all right now.
Unreal! VIX up .16 - nearly unchanged
Fearless wave riders.
M
Yes and the dreaded "flying sombrero" formation on Naz futures!
hang on to your hat
SP 500 futures are setting up the "three peaks and a domed house"
pattern again, this time on the 30 min. chart.
Seems like the next down move could be a doozey if we turn down tomorrow.
Currencies and gold looked bombed out, bottomed.
M
Godfrey,
Nice long term chart of the VIX. It surely looks bottomed, like its only a matter of time when, not if, it turns up.
Its an amazing thing to watch the stock market drop significantly for several days in a row and see no increase in put premiums.
No one buying puts , just counting on old Mr. Greenspan to bail em out. crazy world
M
VIX barely moved today. Still no fear <eom>
thanks for the article.
I added 5 Sept contracts after reading it. Cant believe they are giving this stuff away at $ 4.5 / oz. --g--
M
Silver looking perky - fyi
D
Maybe everyone is going to try and sell on the Fed meeting -g-
Traffic jam to the exits.
M
Platinum has been strong
This is more what I was expecting from gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=&study=NONE&type=future,index&bartype=ca...
The VIX and VXN are kind of amazing.
Based on these two there appears to be no fear at all about the recent decline. VIX looks like a double bottom, if it were a stock I'd buy it. The pull back/ sell off hasnt begun according to VIX.
M.
Gold rubber band stretched pretty tight. Ready for catapult counter action any time.
$20 up day soon imo.
M
<people are going out to spend money again>
I know this is the first thing I think of after recovering from a major illness...
Kind of like the feeling right after a terror alert color is lowered to yellow.. <SFG>
D.
Yeah, Mr. Dell's economy may be stabilizing since he unloaded a boat load of stock in the past few months. -g-
Ask him if he's hiring....
So much BS and so little time - he he friggen Texans
Silver looking very interesting here , I'm sure youre on it.
Gold bottomed today I think.
M
Never underestimate the power of the "three peaks and a domed sombrero" chart pattern -g-
This thing is just getting started to the downside imo.
Dip buying could be hazardous
Dollar looks ready for bottom to come out.
D
"Three peaks and a domed house" pattern on the SP E-mini futures looking at 60 min chart.
I forgot whose pattern it is, (Eliot?) but it's very bearish in my book.
M
I think next week will be the tell. Gold and silver have both pulled back .618 back off this last up.
The time is getting pretty close imo to know which way things are going. I think there is a Bradley turn date around this timeframe so it could get real interesting soon. Big moves coming soon in the stock market and gold either way.
Did we ever find out what happened at Freddie Mac? Something tells me this is a bigger deal than we are told because no one is talking about it.
M
Must be last call to issue bonds at these rates.
Just locked in a refinance on my home for 4.8% 15 years, no points. Wonder who can actually make money selling mortgages at this rate? Or more importantly who would be stupid enough to loan at these rates?
FRE FNM are probably the biggest layups for "short of the decade contest". -g-
M.
hi,
yeah I got lucky and bot @ 660 just the other day and its been a great relief from trading gold and silver futures. Suprisingly none of the mickey mouse games going on , its trading clean even as gold/silver crooks pull their tricks. Im going to take delivery on a few contracts, always wanted to own some of the stuff they make credit cards from -g-
M.
Got to like this chart on Platinum futures.
got bull market? Looks like its ready for 3 of 3 up
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=&study=NONE&type=future,index&bartype=ca...
JPM should be about ready to blow a fuse here
Derivative bomb looks on short fuse to me.
Market has to go up every day for their program to work? I think theirs a bug in the program and the guy that wrote the software is gone.....-g-
M
<DELL upgraded> <MU upgraded> Anyone else smell trapped bulls....
Welcome to bear market chapter 3.. -g-
M