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Probably the same as all the rest of us
In the end
You lose it all
'andy', on more occasions than not
you are a 'dandy'
'Do not post links',,,please
anyone or thing, sick, well, incapacitated, etc., that prints messages via twitter, facebook, message boards, cell phone, et al is always open to public scrutiny.
to post the 'links' or 'not' pleaseeeeeeeee, spare all
'Really'
some here, are merely here to 'stir the stew' so to speak.
thanks for sharing the article, it was interesting.
Maybe or perhaps Mr Simpson has it 60/80% correct in the assessment.
Mr Clackson may or not share some of the view.
'If ponatinib peaks at $750 million in revenue, I estimate the per-share value to Ariad at around $10.50. Push that up to $1 billion (say with meaningful first-line penetration) and the per-share value jumps to $14. As previously mentioned, I don't like including pre-Phase 2 drugs in valuation, but I will make an exception here. Giving '133 $1 billion in sales about ten years hence chips in another $4 per share in value, suggesting a fair value for Ariad shares around $14.50 to $18.
I have little doubt that bulls will snort in protest. They'll say that the ponatinib sales estimates are too small (some analysts have projected over $2 billion in sales), the discount rate is too high (30%), or the presumed multiples are too low (9x on a trailing basis to peak sales). Ditto for '133.
Fair enough. After all, if ponatinib somehow does achieve $2 billion in sales, it would be worth about $28.50 per share. I just don't happen to see much benefit in getting too aggressive with any biotech stock; a little conservatism has stood me in good stead in my own experience with biotech investing. That said, I do believe Ariad is better than many of the single-digit midgets in the biotech oncology space.
All in all, then, with a fair value in the $14.50 to $18 range and a current price of $15.75, Ariad is a stock that I'll continue to watch, but have no pressing need to buy today'.
BOOM BOOM probably will not agree, but hey, cheerleaders are of another cult, usually without reason.
I cannot express how important the mantra
'know what you own' is to the flock
one step further
'in the end, you lose it all'
in summary, it is all a wash
"its no wonder people like biomaven and don dont post know more they know what they own and get tired of reading posts. that say ole my gosh were down a few percent"!!!
I am confident that 'Pete & Donny' can speak for themselves. Maybe they can extrapolate abit more on the 'wussies' issue though.....
No need for any apologies
A fair amount of folk posting here and on the yahoo Aria site merely have interchangeable screen names.
The trick is to figure out 'whom' is 'whom' from that 'interchange'!!!
Good Luck
"please refrain from posting speculative idiocy from Yahoo"
It has become apparent that this 'rag' has finally caught up to the 'Yahoo'.
Peter B figured it out a short time back and left the scene of the accident..
Yahoooooooooooooooooo
Maybe you are not very good at recruiting 'Andy'.
But your 'copy & paste' technique is good. Gotta stick with your strengths, you know. lol
Combination therapy with AP573 is where the value of this drug will be unleashed. Ovarian cancer studies, a tip of the iceberg under the direction of Merck. As a stand alone, '573', modest at best. In combo, a powerhouse..
What would you consider a ("Since I have a large core position") large position? I think i have read here that some have positions of a million or more shares in Ariad. I guess that would be considered 'large' by all standards.
Myself, a thousand shares i consider 'large'. I reckon it is all relative by any standard. But i do become impressed by some of the contributors here with the very, very 'large' positions.
Thanks for sharing.
'113' is more than four years out. How anything is valued in that time frame is probably beyond reasonable for the here and now of issues.
$2 could be viewed as a gift at this point in time, practically speaking.
'Clackson' did, as to why he unloaded 76,000 a few days back. He ain't a dummy.
"IMO, we need to stay out of other peoples business".
A good argument before September 11, 2001
Not Now
Excellent advice to promote spontaneous thinking or at the very least to try that exercise!!!
Your OK '2damoon', your moderatin been fine to.
Enjoy your input and take on the issues concerning the mutual Ariad investment.
We may get there, after all the years yet.
In Regards
M
Hmmmmmmmmm,
"Folks commenting on Greece, need to relate it to ARIA as others do. Repost, accordingly, thx".
After a bit of dissection, is not your missive a heap about the European situation?
I fail to find any correlation as it relates to Ariad.
Thanks bud
'itchy trigger finger'
Would you mind or could you tell all which 'finger' it was with such the 'itch'?
Feeling the way you do in your 'first post' here
A word of advice..
2damoon1 has a new 'survey' coming up shortly. I would highly recommend that you participate, as it is a fairly accurate barometer of the 'IHUB' personality. Very useful for 'newbies' and of course for all the 'oldbies'.
Welcome aboard
I do not think it is really all that serious. The writer was just trying to express his opinions the best he felt he could. I am quite sure he did not mean to ruffle any small feathers.
Looking forward to the new survey. It is very kind of you.
'andy'
interesting, not much response from the top 'guru' science minds here in reference to your well placed article.
but then again, it is just 'fish oil'. very interesting 'results' from this research team.
thanks for the post
Oh no, I was around long before the ''Board' fiasco. People sitting in 'boardroom' chairs also have 'ego's' that need to be stoked now and again. Unfortunately for Dr Berger, his 'ego' requires a bit more than normal stoking. Thus, i always looked at that affair as a clash of to many titans in the room at the same time, and something had to give, which it did. Quite adequate replacement parts were found for the Board, maybe even better than original.
Time to move on. The Doctor has a well funded balance sheet moving forward, without a fair amount of damage. Barring to many unforeseen events up ahead, it should become much more interesting with financing issues off the table for a good spell.
Maybe you ought just speak for yourself about 'hate the guy'.
The good 'Doctor' has done quite well steering ship 'Ariad' during these past months. Much 'kudos' to him and now he has the bankroll to be a force to reckon with in Bio-Tech land.
On top of that, he has managed to keep many 'key' talented employees on board ship. Must not to be to bad of a 'honcho' to maintain the loyalty, which is what makes good companies evolve into superior.
Everything in life is not always that easy.
Good to see you here though.
'ruik', what do you think?
catch any of the short action today?
yeeeeeeeeeeeehawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Ariad, always a good short on news days, without fail.
I pose no problem. Generally speaking, Ariad has more, much more than not, had a history of selling the 'news' over the years that i have watched the company. Which in itself is not unique to Bio-Tech companies in past couple of years. Merely 'caution' in the wind.
"That short interest has very little to do with Ariad and a lot more with the use short positions in a variety of ETF's for a a variety of both pessimistic and strategic purposes"
And still wondering how you came to conclusion with above? I have no way of knowing the parties that own the 12.66% of the 'short interest'. Would think that most retail investors are not privy to that info either. Just curious.
I would enjoy a 'buy the news' scenario for a change of pace. It would be quite welcome to this lowly retail (much to long term holder) of Ariad.
For general recall purposes, 'Sell the News' Ariad occurred Nov 7 with culmination of about 2 dollar drop over three trading days, with 'striking' news break.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/end-times-euro-zone-050147403.html
Always with perspective, like it or not.
'rurik'
"That short interest has very little to do with Ariad and a lot more with the use short positions in a variety of ETF's for a a variety of both pessimistic and strategic purposes".
Am not sure how you come up with that summation, but it can very well be a misleading statement, unless of course it is a MHO attached to same.
And then again, just IMHO of what or not to expect on Ariad news breaks.
Who knows, maybe for a complete change of pace, it could be 'buy' on the Ariad news. And all in just MVVTHO.
Well now that is quite optimistic and think you got the close today fairly well pegged.
Not so sure that 12.66% short interest in the affair sees it that way though on the other end.
Perhaps the large short position thinks 71% is also much high.
Getting much oh so much closer to finding out the outcome of this long battle.
Gentlemen, sharpen your swords.
Place your bets boys & girls
Do we sell the news on Monday and how low does she go?
Maybe it was an 'easy' find as i viewed headlines for Ariad today. Just released at 1700 hours.
AP1903 hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
thanks again
Mito
nice find and thanks for sharing
Mito
I would also like to add
"mega ditto's", which would also apply to Mr Hedge, Mr Moon, Mr Researcher, Mr Science, and Mr & Mrs Shimoda.
What say you 'dough'?
Mito
Very well done '2da'
It should go a long ways in helping 'rummy' understand his query.
Thanks
Which would also be my point
'BTH' appears to be ahead of the curve more often than not
A valuable resource on the 'IHUB' journal
And thank you again 'BTH'
'03'
You are so far from an
"idiot" (self described) no less
The trading will be there as we move forward "over and over again"
Do Not give up, as your perception here is always appreciated in regard to Ariad
Many thanks for your continual contributions
Mito
This is most certainly no 'pig'
Oink Poop on you
Mito