is...hopefully making money
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I'm curious as to what "corporate developments" everyone thinks will be announced on Monday. I, for one, do think there will be a dividend announced. What are you guys expecting?
Rollercoaster ride this morning. Looks like there is a major effort to keep it from boiling over 16.70. If it breaks through again it could get very interesting.
Three words: Going MUCH higher
Unless my logic is flawed, the fact that there are so few shares to short seems to support my assumption that the short interest has not declined at all, or at least very little. If millions of shorts covered there would be endless shares available to short, no?
I actually suspect that we are close to 5 million right now. Just like we were adding at the bargin bin prices of $8-9, the senseless shorts see $15 as a bargin bin price. The Yahoo! message board is still going nuts with shorts claiming they will cover in the $10 range. FWIW I think they are off their rockers and I will gladly take all of their money.
There has been an epic battle going on in the 15.40-15.50 range. The shorts are trying to draw the line in the sand there, so to speak. Each day that we hold these levels is a tremendous victory as they are piling on the short shares with no real negative effect on the PPS.
This will have a profound coiling effect going into earnings.
I've already doubled down on the premise that a divi is on the short term horizon. Well that was one of several key reasons anyway.
I doubt that this trading is longs taking gains, not just before earnings. This is mostly shorting IMO. As I said in an earlier post, I fully suspect that the short interest is as high as ever.
I think the shorts, the poor naive shorts, think that the current price has setup a long squeeze of epic proportions and they are still piling on waiting for their payday.
If I am correct, then the short squeeze is still on the table.
Yep. Noted. Open mouth, insert foot.
Holding up very well today considering the broader markets are getting the smackdown.
The whole "volume was high starting the 15th" argument really doesn't hold much water. The price was burgeoning on the 13th and 14th and volume for those days was c. 2 million and 1.5 million, respectively. However, we now know that those 3.5 million shares traded were not shorts covering. Why should we believe they were covering the following 3 days? Especially when the price was moving down on 16th and 17th.
I think it is more likely that many of the shorts are holding on praying that the stock will lose its momentum, despite good news, and languish back down to single digits as it has in the past. I would not be surprised to find that the current short numbers are even higher now from people shorting in the high $15s and low $16s. Doubling down so to speak.
I also believe that the shorts are fatally wrong in their predictions. The die has been cast for a new CCME with revitalized respect and that is poised to trade like its peers and then above them, and time will surely tell. I have to say that I like our odds with earnings right around the corner :)
Okay, that was a good warm up, now I'm ready for the real run today.
Indeed. More likely sooner than later IMO.
Wow, just like that we're up 6%. CCME shares should come with a Surgeon General's warning "It is highly recommended that owning CCME be limited to those with stones of steel. Persons with heart conditions, high blood pressure or anxiety should avoid adding CCME to their portfolio as the swings could prove fatal."
This is two days in a row now where there were early 80k+ blocks going off. Smells like an institution buying, which would make sense coming off of their recent investor conference. I fully expect more analyst coverage before Q3 earnings.
I sure hope so. 5MM shares short combined with blowout earnings and perhaps some other key news could be more like an instant $10 a share run.
Nice low volume day today. It looks like our big sellers, whoever they were, are taking the day off or are done all together.
Each day is another day closer to Q3 earnings. It should be electric.
Speaking of low volume...the board is awefully quiet today. You guys all planning your retirements when CCME jumps to $30? :)
Does anyone have a good feel for how quickly we will see the float #'s increase if this is S3 selling? Honestly, I think the increase in the float will be a good thing long term. More liquidity and more attractive for large investors.
I find it hard to believe that anyone with a major stake's strategy would be "dump that $hit as fast as you can irrespective of what it does to the price" If that is the case then these are some of the most reckless individuals I have ever seen and I'll be glad to see them go.
I think it is more likely that a short attack is coinciding with the selling in a last ditch effort to cause panic.
I think today is one of the most bullish days I've seen for CCME to date. Huge blocks going off but they can't take the price down low enough before huge buyers come in and scoop it up. This is a brand new CCME with more firepower than before, and the big money behind all of this shorting will find themselves very discouraged by the way the stock is trading despite their best efforts.
Today will mark another major turning point for trading IMO. The REAL short covering is only days away.
When Greenberg upped his ante, investors that run in his circles also likely jumped in. And we'll soon find out if MS is in here too. One thing is for sure, we've got some major muscle backing us now.
touché! Morning coffee has not kicked in yet.
LOL - CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM picked up 21,500 shares last quarter. Who said the Govn't doesn't know anything about ROI ;)
That move just single handedly cut California's unfunded pension liabilities from $200,000,000,000.00 to $199,000,850,000.00
CCME to the rescue!!
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=CCME&selected=CCME&FormType=Institutional
I certainly respect Rato's opinion; he is right on about a lot of things. I think he is missing one thing in his thesis about valuation though. He does not do enough to consider the human element of the market. His logic is....well too logical. The markets are not that logical because the system is comprised of people. If the market was only run by computers that made cold calculated decisions his thesis would probably be very precise.
It is the human element that causes the market and individual stocks experience significant ebbs and flows. What's more is that the ebbs and flows can last for a very long time, sometimes decades. It is hard to incorporate that into any model.
I agree in one respect, however we both know that capital appreciation will occur along with the dividend yield as a flood of new investors flock to the stock. That will benefit them greatly.
I will be very surprised, nay, astonished if there is not a dividend announcement on the Q3 earnings call. In fact I'm banking on it. The principle interest of a publicly traded company is to increase value for its shareholders over time. There is no more evident way to do that at this point in time than to implement a dividend. Given that insiders hold a vast majority of interest in the company it is to their benefit as well.
Right, most are for ad space on the outside of the busses. And why not? In America wealthy people drive their own cars along side busses, so that makes the most sense.
I'm not judging, heck I'd like to see America better utilize mass transit, but for marketers it's all about best bang for your buck. In China that exposure is inside the bus. If that ever changes here in the States, we'll see an American version of CCME pop up and I'll stick a nice chunk of cash in it early on! Heck, maybe CCME will go multi-national :)
It is a cultural thing. There are three questions that you would need to answer to fully understand why Westerners have a hard time wrapping their mind around CCME's business model -
1)How many people ride busses at all?
2)How many affluent people ride busses?
3)For those that do ride buses, how many ride for more than 10-20 minutes (not even enough time to read the paper)?
In America, the answers are not many, not many and not many. In China the answers are millions, millions and millions.
I'd speculate that this cultural difference is what creates the divide for many Western investors. I think they are starting to come around though, as evidenced by the increasing volume and attention on the sector. We can all be thankful that we got to this table early.
Definitely bet the squeeze. How about the head fake that the market pulled on all of the shorts yesterday? That was a tasty treat. I bet they are feeling like they can't catch a break at this point.
Like I said yesterday, the two days of heavy consolidation were badly needed to allow for a sustainable run. With 3.5 million shares traded in the last two days, I suspect that many who wanted to book their gains already did so and their shares fell into the hands of the many that are looking to the $20's and $30's. That will help expedite the impending short roast which will fuel our third wave in this run up.
I looked at their chart this morning and mentally noted that it was one of the best looking charts I have seen in a long time. This third wave could be violent.
I'm curious what everyone's preference would be in terms of news if you could only chose one for tomorrow -
1. An accredited acquisition that expands the business into another high margin advertising segment and immediately increases revenues by 30%
2. A quarterly dividend with a 3% yield
3. A coverage announcement by MS or GS with a $30 price target
Another healthy pullback today will have the charts primed for a strong third wave. IMO we needed a slight cool of to allow for a more sustainable ascent to the $20s. With nearly 100% runup in just a few weeks, you start to get a lot more shareholders looking to book gains. I would rather have a few high volume shakeouts to get those shares into the hands of people looking for forward to the $20s and $30s.
FWIW CCME may try to time some news with the conference this week, which would set things up even more perfectly.
170k shares traded in the first minute. If that is any indication of how today is going to be, it should be a fun one.
I wonder if him and Greenberg ever correspond. Like I said in an earlier post, it will be game on when honks his horn, puts on his monkey suit and proclaims "The only two Chinese stocks I recommend are BIDU and CCME!!!" Can you imagine if CCME goes mainstream and actually commanded a 15x-20x valuation? That's $45-60 based upon forward earnings! Even that is not an unreasonable valuation for a company with such impressive growth.
Exactly. I'll take the support of a bonehead that millions of people listen to any day of the week and twice on Tuesday. Nice job Joe!
And I guarantee it was the #1 gaining stock with NO NEWS.
Holy smokes! Did you guys see that tug-of-war going on at the close. That was some serious firepower on both sides and the bulls won it. What a show!
Well heck, let's just go ahead and take out $17 today...why not :)
For sure...I think this is what they mean when they say you have to go through Hell to get to Heaven!
Who is going to partake in a $20 CCME internet toast with me? I'm going out and picking up a nice 20 year single malt scotch for the occasion.
$16 print!!!!!!
I'm cheering a close above $16 personally :)
BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!