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you can know what you have invested in, and done all the DD in the world, and the drug can be great, and the company can be fantastic- but if the stock is overpriced, you will lose money investing in that company because the majority of shares will be sold, rather than bought, to take advantage of the overpriced asset. GLTY sincerely
LOL dude tens of millions of bucks is NOTHING. seriously. LOL quit counting your chickens before they have hatched. the run is OVER. take your profits before someone else does! even if this drug gets approved the stock is not going to skyrocket! it already has. buy the rumor and sell the news. on friday the smart money sold, shorted, or bought puts. call me whatever you want but you will see that I am right in a few short days.
and because there were not enough buy orders already in place once the stock started declining, in order to satisfy the stop losses the price had to continue to decline to find buyers.
you are assuming that all 5 million shares were sold by 1 individual person or entity. that is an incorrect assumption. stop losses were triggered as the price fell. many individuals or entities sold shares on the price decline.
friday was a classic distribution day. down by 16% on record volume. the trend has changed.
what makes it illegal? its the open market- people can buy or sell as many shares as they want to influence market prices if they so desire and if have the funds to do it.
big boys slowly accumulated in the $1.XX range. Just because I know that stocks go up and down when they are bought and sold doesn't mean that will make me a millionaire. that is common sense. thinking that a stock went down by 16% because big boys are trying to "load up" rather than thinking it went down 16% because big boys were selling to exit their positions... that is delusional.
LOL I am obviously going against the prevailing sentiment
cover-up story? it's the marketplace, stocks are bought and sold causing the prices to go up and down every day. in this case some big fish with a lot of shares decided to dump them using a market order. as the price went down, stop losses were hit causing more selling, and then more stop losses were hit causing more selling, etc, until enough limit buy orders were hit, absorbing the selling, and causing the price to stabilize. speculators came in at the low prices and bid the stock back up. ITS THE STOCK MARKET. and yes, you are right I do know the truth as I just demonstrated.
put/call = .31? so for every 31 puts bought, 100 calls are bought? so buying puts would be the contrarian strategy, because most people are buying calls? am i missing something?
we will see who is laughing next wednesday :)
5) Do the available data demonstrate that the potential benefits of lorcaserin outweigh the potential risks when used long-term in a population of overweight and obese individuals?
(VOTING)
Yes: 18 No: 4 Abstain: 1
If you voted ‘Yes’ to question #5, please provide your rationale and comment on the need for and approach to patient monitoring and risk management.
Committee Discussion: Many panel members indicated that it was a very difficult vote and they reluctantly voted “Yes” that the benefits outweigh the risk for treatment of
obesity patients since the magnitude of weight loss was moderate.
have you read this?
http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/EndocrinologicandMetabolicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM309521.pdf
approval doesn't look so sure to me. Even if it gets approved, the stock continuing its run doesn't seem likely. The hype will die down after approval and the stock price will go down until revenue numbers come out. IMO.
100% agree
yep i have been watching this run up eagerly awaiting an appropriate time to buy puts, and i bought today
put a stop loss on those calls and GL
Sorry, how many "bear raids" have you been a part of to be the expert on when and why they occur?
the stock went down today because former bulls (big, deep pocketed bulls as evidenced by the massive volume) who bought the stock at $1 or $2 a share decided to become bears and take their 500-1000% profit.
Sure, there might be some shorts in there as well, but the stock went down because for the big, smart, investors, the stock wasnt worth holding on to anymore. they sold to protect their profits. they sold before someone else sold.
if the drug is approved, how many months/years will it be before the drug starts selling and making the company money?
the approval is already baked in. even with approval the stock could easily go down. don't expect a massive up day if the drug gets approved. everyone is expecting that and the market never does what you expect it to do.
lol i'm not trying to bash but this was cheap at $1.xx it is not cheap any longer. i am only telling you what the big money is saying. record volume day and the stock is down 16%. that means that big fish, big shareholders decided to SELL today. best of luck
lol sell this POS and buy put options. why cheer it higher it has already gone from $2 to $12 in 2 months. the easy money is buying put options. the pump is officially over as of today. classic distribution day
Should be.. :/
what happened here? they found a cure for cancer? ;)
april 20th (april options expiration and earnings release)
As of now, that's what the chart is showing.
Maybe. He could have also been implying that I had ulterior motives. Like I'm selling puts or something. That being said, I could sell in the money calls and make a killing if apple dropped. However, I said in my post that I bought puts.
The play is short. Everyone should trade based off of their own risk tolerance. If he must know, I own march 505 puts right now. But that can change on a dime, so I don't want to advise anyone into any specific trade.
I'm not selling anything
A Short Opportunity of the Ages
To be truthful, I'm about even in my trading career, thanks buying apple calls on monday!
But I'm about to go into the black on my lifetime return with the put options I bought today.
I will buy more puts tomorrow and more on monday if AAPL stay's at its current levels or drifts up a few more points.
Lucrative trading opportunities, like the one apple is presenting on the short side, don't come around often. I bought SLV puts a few days before it crashed last year. They lost half their value the day I bought em; I got scared and sold. Had I held on a few more days I would have 5x my money. I am more experienced now.
It's OBVIOUS that Apple needs a pull back. Yes, it's a good company. Yes, the valuation seems cheap. Yes, they have great products........ However, stocks don't go up in a straight line forever.
So, why short now you ask? The "measured move" theory states that a stock should have an move equal to the last hi-low move. I am using the low on June 20, 2011 ($317), and the high on October 17, 2011 ($426). The difference is $109. Thus, a measured move of $109 above the October 17th high results in an expected price of $535. As AAPL is currently $9 higher than this measured move, I see this as a plus- it means that puts are cheaper than expected.
If you are still reading, I have one more thing to say: a retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci line, created using the November 25 low (in my opinion the date this massive run started) and the most recent high, takes the stock to $480. This is my target price on the short side. It can easily bounce off this line and then begin it's move to $600+, after clearing out all of the weak hands.
this is my last post on this board. I now remember why I stopped reading ihub posts.
**stocks are "manipulated" every trading day because stocks are bought and sold trading every day. As one's money supply increases, so does one's potential to manipulate stock prices.**
A high wave bearish deliberation pattern has formed on the weekly chart
http://americanbulls.com/weekly/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=AAPL&MarketTicker=NASD&Typ=S
On the WEEKLY chart below, note the overbought conditions of the RSI, MACD, and Full STO. Note how AAPL traded outside the upper bollinger band the entire week. Note the last time AAPL traded outside it's upper bollinger band for an entire week (last week in july)- it went from a close of $390 to a low of $353 2 weeks later, a drop of 10.5% (also note that these candles are essentially both dojis, although the candlestick this week is technically a high wave, which is very similar to a doji.) A drop of 10.5% from the close of $502 this week would assign the estimated low over the next two weeks a value of $449. (Finally, note that this analysis was performed in about 10 minutes after a few margaritas. it can be viewed as simple and crude, or simple and effective. best of luck to all.)
as $600 is not visible on that chart, I do not know how you arrived at your expected date for AAPL to hit $600
I'm looking for apple to hit $464ish relatively quickly once it drops below $486 from fibonacci lines
please show me your trading channel.
all I am looking for is a double. i'll sell half when I double up and set a stop loss at the double for the other half
congrats on your option trade. I would realize those gains if you haven't.
aapl will not see $600+ till sometime next year at the earliest, imo. that is what I mean by distant.
i have other investments, but concerning apple, i only have march 475 puts. I trade off what I see in the technicals, and after a monster run up, I see no need to hedge my apple position.
that, my friend, is koolaid. "Apple: A China Syndrome That Could Explode."
it could explode?! whoa no way
obviously it's a great company. obviously they have a great product. it's quite possible that apple will trade at $600 or higher in the future. so with a very long term outlook, a buy right now could possibly give you a positive return on your investment at some point in the (more distant than near) future.
like all things, stocks ebb and flow, and aapl is no different.
it ebbed from $370 to $525 before you could blink, now it's time to flow and reward the patient investors for not chasing
the dividend is definitely baked in. if announced, it would send the stock down.
Apple is an extremely innovative, and resourceful company, thus they don't pay a dividend. Instead, they use their cash in R&D, marketing, and in other ways (salaries for the best and the brightest, etc), because they feel that they can make more money with their cash than you could make money with their cash if they returned it to you as a shareholder in the form of a dividend. With no dividend, they make more cash (because they use the cash to make more cash) and YOU make more capital gains because the stock goes up as a result of them spending their money more effectively than you could.
announcing a dividend would be a sign that they have lot their innovative edge, imo. it's like, "hell, we don't have a clue what to do with these billions (now that Jobs is dead) so we'll just give it to shareholders." not a good sign, imo.
yeah I'm pretty disappointed that there was no sell confirmation today.. hoping for another bearish engulfing tomorrow :/
those puts got expensive quick. i bought some march 475s in the later part of the day. but they will look dirt cheap in a week or 2. congrats on your pickup
Please sir, sell those calls ASAP and buy puts. apple formed a blow off top today. a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on extremely high volume. this means the parabolic run up is over, and the decent begins.
watch.
-Horns
buy buy buy. breakout coming in 2012, already started, long term, mid term, short term. lots of money to be made buying this stock. more from buying call options.