I am updating my staus.
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China moves inflation target to 4%
Reduces the chances of China going "medieval" on the economy to kill inflation.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-to-raise-inflation-rb-2995984920.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
rich
Banks in China are political devices - while there is talk of this changing and being friendlier to small and medium businesses. The fact is most of the loans go to government and government enterprises.
It's a growing country and there's lots of people wanting the limited credit.
At one of the CC's they were asked about this and they replied they didn't want to take on loans at 10%. So, it's also possible that they could get loans but just don't want to pay the rate. It would make sense from our perspective to do it but management do seem set against it.
rich
YONG - CHBU - what rate has CHBU been adding it's stores? YONG's store franchise is growing at a phenomenal rate. All I can say is that YONG isn't going to maximise sales at a newly franchised store in the the first couple of years - doubly so the 13K added this year.
End of Year
10 23,000 E
09 9,110
08 1,125
They also talked about training people during the year (they haven't decided if it's money well spent so may or may not repeat in '11). It going to take a while for you to organise when you scale up.
Finally, if you only a few shops you are going to be picky about where you put them. Clearly, a loss of quality would be expected with YONG.
rich
BSPM - consistent with what they said at the CC where they were aiming for $29M for the quarter. I was actually hoping they would update in January but it's good to see they are keeping shareholder informed and confident that Q4 is going to be solid. Hope to see cash continue piling up.
Now, they need to hire a top4 auditor for 2011 and they would have kept all their promises.
rich
SSE - I believe it was GS that caused a run on the SSE telling everyone to sell because the interest rates were going up. It was taken none too kindly by the Chinese authorities. I guess GS's view has changed or at least all the departments are singing from the same hymn sheet.
rich
LLEN - Howdy Michael and welcome, what was the PPS when you talked to Cleyton? The original plan, last year say, was to dilute - during summer of this year they were then talking about the PPS being too low to dilute (think it was $8 ish, dunno) and they would look at debt financing or some other way - now that it is near $12 they might change back to equity?
That said, I think debt financing is the way to go but wouldn't be surprised if equity got involved. If Cleyton re-iterated debt as they way to go I would be very pleased - it would be good for the entire CGS space.
rich
LLEN - I'm holding, Gorilla's aren't smart enough to trade were all fingers and thumbs on the keyboards. Important thing was it didn't sell off hard. Beyond that it's all gravy.
They will probably do a raise at some point but it should add to the EPS but might becalm the stock while it's happening.
More interested in if they are improving their auditor. That they've virtually doubled their coal output. Q3 should be good.
rich
LLEN - announces results and is up? Amazing.
LLEN - the earnings were incrementally better than last quarter. I think the important bit is they finished the two mine upgrades (both 150K->300K). So 300K more coal per year.
Up in pre-market!
rich
CCME - When valuation matters I will regret this but that's not today
rich
NEPvLPH - LPH's earnings have very little to do with oil price - beyond increasing the margin when China puts the price of domestic oil up.
rich
LPH - Redchip, paid reports, reduced the top-end of the pps. They brought revenue and earnings estimates back to what the company thought they would get (odd that they ever went above). Putting a negative report out when pps has gone from $3.50 to $2.50 doesn't seem the best timing but, hey, don't we just love markets!
http://www.redchip.com/files/redchipReports/LPH_20101207_1QFY11Update.pdf
rich
Wikileaks - the loss of intelligence gathering would make that a ridiculous claim.
rich
Good question.
Ideas:
1) We need an email written just in Chinese. We know it ain't ending back on Zs desk. hgm said he would translate.
2) Mandrin speaker to start asking questions and seeing if they can talk to management.
3) One of our questions is to ask for CFO's email.
I guess we want to know if Zs useless or management don't want to talk or probably both. Either way they need to know what they are doing is harming the business.
rich
China's Shenhua says CTL plant to begin storing carbon in '11
Well frankly they needed to do something. Still, while others talk. China is doing something.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/30/content_11631026.htm
rich
ignore post ??
NEP Is it worth guessing a few emails? Worse case is you get a reply saying "not known"
Edward.Rule@cnepetroleum.com (Chairman of the Board/Director)
Either Shaohui.Chen@cnepetroleum.com
or Steven.Chen@cnepetroleum.com (CEO)
Ruishi.Hu@cnepetroleum.com (director)
http://people.forbes.com/search?name=&ticker=NEP
Are any NEP holders bi-lingual. If you emailed them in fluent Chinese it might help bridge the language barrier? I would hate some of your subtle US expressions to be lost on them Burp.
rich
Yes, exactly the way to handle a fraud case.
rich
LPH - I was wondering about the $20M I thought they'd mentioned something similar at the CC? The important bit, for me, was as you said the operations were working normally - you could imagine that they weren't getting enough diesel and the PR dispelled it.
rich
Glen's: 13 Stock Picks for 2011
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10936305/1/13-stock-picks-for-2011.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
rich
Foreign firms' path to the A-share market eased
BEIJING - Chinese authorities are accelerating the process to allow overseas companies to float shares in the domestic A-share market as a way to ease the country's mounting pressure of "hot money" inflows.
"The international board will be launched some time next year, hopefully," Fang Haixing, director general of Shanghai's financial services office, said on Wednesday at a financial forum in Shanghai.
Fang said that the approval procedures for overseas companies seeking listing on the board will be made simpler and faster than for domestic companies.......
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-12/02/content_11641964.htm
rich
CEU - sorry are you saying Kerrisdale was wrong about CEU's ranking?
rich
CEU - if that's the case they haven't kept Nasdaqtrader up to date with this development.
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=Tradehalts
rich
NEP: Yup, you need outside views..
Another common Chinese small-cap risk that NEP exhibits is the tendency to dilute current shareholders. Last December the company raised $13.5 million off about a 2 million share offering, diluting shareholders by over 30%. The 10-K makes no bones about management's willingness to raise capital in this manner in the future. I wish these firms would consider going to the bank for capital instead of diluting shareholders.
A 30% dilution that doubled revenue and earnings and diversification. I think it was one of the best dilutions in the space but the article only considered the negatives.
Banks work with state enterprises first and foremost - if you can get money from a bank your best to tap political contacts. They were talking about making it easier for small businesses to get money but I don't know if it is easier.
rich
CEU - yup, it was just fluff PR, unless your RINO's management, you don't say "You got us". Since there is a trading halt they can take their time before answering - I'm glad they halted it as it stops the spectacle. If they don't answer point by point then the sucker is going down.
rich
LLEN - institutions added 1M net so around 3 and a bit % in the quarter. Steady as she goes....
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=LLEN&selected=LLEN
rich
IBD Coal:Namechecks:LLEN:PUDA:SCOK article with strong Chinese slant
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/554897/201011261754/Shoveling-Up-A-Future-Of-Voltage-And-Steel.htm
LLEN - I would have thought there was better uses of the limited cash but it may also be about legitimatizing business?
rich
NEP Hehe... so much fuss to get a few questions answered? Anyway, something is happening now, good.
rich
NEP - did you get your phone call with IR or you still holding breath?
rich
I only meant that the submission should be private before the deadline. Once the deadline has passed, obviously, all submissions should be open to perusal.
The influence I am talking about is one submission affecting the choices of subsequent submissions. So, if someone chooses NEP then it's more likely that submissions made soon after that is more likely to include NEP than would have otherwise had happened. I bet you see it in the submissions made for this index. So, stocks influence in being in the index would be affected not just by how popular the stock is but also if it was mentioned regularly - it's kinda a self-feeding loop.
It was no comment on the share price.
rich
Should 10 amigos be private until all entries in? Reading other peoples selections will, naturally, influence subsequent choices. I wonder if it should be anonymous until the closing date?
Other boards do this what have they discovered the pros and cons are?
rich
Amigos
Still thinking.... I have until 12? These are the first draft. When I was at UNI they banned me from handing things in at the deadline time.
1) CCME
2) BSPM
3) CELM
4) CCCL
5) LPH
6) SKBI - Frazer frost company *shrug* but also cheaper than chips
7) YONG - some shorting going on but you've got to love the
8) NEP
9) LLEN - You take the chance they **** up choosing new auditor
10) Hmmm....
rich
NIV Tuesdays news surely eom
The diluted share count has remained the same since the financing in Oct 2009 - this financing while being poorly managed, they would not be the first Chinese company to have this happen, is the reason that they have doubled their revenue in the year not a disaster by any means! You take every share and every preferred and every warrant and convert them and you end up with 115M. Which is where we've been for a year.
The problem is that the 14M preferreds are/were convertable at $0.80 so the financiers have been doing just that keeping some and selling others at a hefty profit. Any share is a combination of supply and demand for the stock - these preferred convertables have increased the supply and kept the prices depressed. There are now only 3M of these as of 15th Nov.
The warrants is a different situation. They can either convert non-cash which means that at 2.60 - 7 warrants get converted into 1 share or with cash in which case LPH gets a boost to the balance sheet of $2.25 M for each 1M shares converted.
We recently heard that the owners have cashed in 2M shares at, think, $1.60. The ownership is very high and mutual funds prefer it if owners don't have in effect a majority of the votes - we hope that they sold them to reliable institutions but given their feckless-ness with shares I wouldn't be surprised if the buyer is now selling them on the market. We need to contact management about what they are up to in this regard (Turkey Friday probably not a good day). I would hope they could sell additional shares at a smaller discount to the market price!
Investing isn't rocket science there are a few things you need to be able to do and one of them is understand share counts, outstanding shares, diluted shares, prefferred and warrants - and you can get that information at investopedia. You need to look at the most recent 10-Q to get this information [1] and in particular look at the following and you can see where we are - Note9 is the state of play at 30 Sept and Note 13 takes you up until 15th Nov.
NOTE 9 – PREFERRED STOCK - OCTOBER 2009 FINANCING
NOTE 13 – SUBSEQUENT EVENTS
The good news is that the company is now doing 100s of thousands and sometimes millions of shares a day. It will work through this inventory. Go back a month or 2 and many days it would even do a 100K. The major reason for this is the value of the shares verses the earnings attracting more buyers. This is only going to increase in the coming year and indeed as the price declines.
This is a cheap share and the supply is limited. The only obvious increase in shares would now come if they were to buy / start a new facility which would once again increase revenues significantly.
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111817/000101376210002721/form10q.htm
Couldn't care if your long, short, or even straddling. The tone of the post is to imply something is wrong - but the only substantive point, well known by the board, is that management should have re-bought shares - I agree, we all agree.
Should they do a dividend? Yes, if they have nothing better to do with the money. Not having a dividend immediately, is hardly a reason for management misdeeds - the truth is this posting board was more excited than the management about spending the cash.
In the end management are going to be rewarded by an increase in net income and not, unfortunately, by increase in EPS.
Investors deserve the points, positive and negative, and left to make their decision - they do not need any additional imparting of sentiment to a post.
rich
People are welcome to write their views and this is just a re-hash of anything negative you can think of - which isn't a lot
What I don't like is the tone. It's trying to make a scene BY CAPITALIZING and scaring investors. It reads like a yahoo post, *sigh*.
rich
TSTC - it's clueless timing. The shares were likely to be strong in Q3/Q4 - they could have used the facility and then done the secondary at a higher share price. Oh well.
rich
10M shares since 2008... spoke too soon :)
rich
1) Would like to know if they would PR this quarters production as they used to in the past? This would also address the disappointing production numbers which many seem worried about.
2) Have they mentioned anything about the auditor quality and improving it?
3) Does Bill have compromising photos of the Chairman of the board?
rich