The MSFT re-jigger (apparently) has stuck it to those short things like QQQ. NDX is near even (a shade red) yet QQQs are up .08-.10 since the close on Friday. At least I think that is the reason for the discrepancy

A- Have you ever seen a coherent argument ($$ wise) on the transition cost going from SS to a (even partial) private SS system?

I suppose theoretical stocks could rise overall based on privatizing SS talk- but no one (I've seen) has ever proposed a plan that makes (anything close to sense) since that funding gap (transition) problem seems to torpedo every start...

Of course, if its done with a 'forced' increased net savings for each individual, that'll work! g,ngngngnngngnngngngn (but then the economy short-term and intermediate term gets a whack)

Jim- are those your expected outcomes for the next few trading days (date w/NDX). if so, how accurate has that been in past?

Jim- Any chance (or are the odds equivelent) that your Nov 24th signal is a bottom rather then top?

Sounds like you are saying Les' numbers are the 'holy grail'? He had his most extreme figures in a while I thought (about a week ago) and yet (no retrenchment then)...

We've had no chances of 2-3% pullbacks without extremes in Les' numbers? I haven't checked, but wouldn't think we needed his extremes in every case...

You looking then for (A) spikey up the entire week (into Friday) -without retrench for 5 days or (B)some kind of pullback into mid-week (but since we won't get all the way back to Max) then spikey up into EOW?

edit

A- You are a reasonable guy. Whadda say we fill that Dell gap, let MSFT re-test minibreakout, and take care of options ex from here over the next few days....

In other words, quit posting higher and higher alternatives gg

did you stop get hit there?

How big a correction you lookin' for? (QQQs)

(Very odd to see MSFT above $30 and Dell at $39 and the QQQs doing nothing from yesterday's close. Looks like not much else trading premarket).

That's (obviously) a good thing if you are looking for down shortly (or at least a neutral at worst, IMO). In the past week, as Dell and Qcom would fall or be flat, the NDX kept moving up (bad thing for shorts), blah, blah

Did you figure out how MSFT dividend may effect the QQQs on Monday? tia

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4548379

You agree?

Sorry to keep harping, but doesn't a potential move to 1460 (unless it shoots up, straight back down) render Max Pain useless this month?

Steve, I just double my short exposure at 38.30. Now averaged in around 38. Looking for more than 2% pullback or more from here- but could be 4-5% that Zeev is expecting (we'll see). About 80% short here. I'll hold the double another 1% up at most.

Its been a long time since so many posters I respect have been so (in small frames) negative on a further advance in the market w/o retrenchment- betting we get it.

Any chance Max Pain turns out to be 38 this month. We sure seem to be hanging around there a lot..

Zeev, we finally going to get some real down today?

(If NDX makes a run at highs...Friday) Did you mean Thursday?

You still looking for 1510 best guess NDX?

Do you/did you have a specific rut/ndx target (when you held them) for this down?

Me and my early entry would be most grateful if you can engineer..

We are wound tighter than (pick your analogy)...we going to move real soon I reckon..

per jj

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ghclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,....

Actually, not a bad policy..

How you playing this currently, Namiar?

In beginning October, we didn't drop (really) when it went above 100..

You still thinkin' (maybe 100 COMP pts.) down w/the swoon? tia

If we close here, you holding onto short?

Are near-term stochastics getting reset at all here? (towards oversold)...kindof sucks being short here (no movement)

You still think market heads down in Nov or? tia

From which levels are you expecting the C down? tia

You asked about overbought on Friday...here's an interesting chart (w/backtest to boot)- off a99's thread

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[e,a]daclyiay[d20000823,20041231][pa2946.5!a167...

(Commish) I think Gretsky is the ONLY solution now. The black eye/credibility factor means NHL need a (super)hero or else....he's really the only one on both side of our respective fence(s) that has the street cred..

Just my 2 Canadian cents, as it were...

D- Sounds like you don't think we are correcting the larger move out of 1930's or???? (are we just correcting 1982-200x now?)

Zeev, you got a final hour guess here? (NDX/COMP) tia

STeve- What's your best guess on final hour, up/down/or flat from here?

lol;

for the record, I am actually 40% net short, not 50%..miscalculated yesterday.

Also, I am playing for a quick few % retrace...we'll see

When you get overboughts LG, what the average size % pullback you see?...tia

I guess I am talking micro-frames (always tricky I know)...yes, over next 4-6 weeks no way I can disagree.

I am trying to understand why you have closed the door on yesterday's action being distributive. Granted, there are arguments for some short-term up (some of the trend lines you posted), and we may break up thru today's highs at any time, but haven't we mostly just gapped up here (so far) and the real test is breaking up thru (today's high) as a show of strength?

In other words, I'd think the gaps up today shouldn't change your basic argument yesterday/day before YET (or correct me if I'm wrong)

Well, that's today's high, and I think opinion (sp?) had 10,360 as a key level..so we'll see..

And that would equate with an overbought, would it not?