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It's a tough market to try and make many trades in a day, down but a lot of reversals.
we were all wrong about this one.
we were all wrong about this one.
we move up then move down, now lacking real direction. not taking side with calls or puts at this point.
The odds IMO are we trade back to maybe 164.80. That is close enough to push it above 165 on Friday.
But both puts and calls are losing prem this close to the expiry, and the market lacks momentum either up or down.
For me it's like torture to watch each tick of the market. So who knows it looks like both puts and calls are being sold and we will be left with smaller OI on Friday.
I can't afford to take the chance on calls, but in the past 2 times down then back up to the highs of the day in this type of situation. I wouldn't buy index puts again, I think it most likely they trade down and not recover from here.
over all I feel we will be down maybe 2000 dow points before it's over.
But calls often do better on spikes up in a bear market or correction.
Good on you, but the best money has been made on calls for today, it might work out, but not like the AM calls. I don't do well on these tiny moves.
I was tempted by those 165 puts at 0.55, close to your price, but it seemed like it wasn't likely to make a big profit.
But you do have a higher price right now. What do you see the SPY doing in the next few hours?
another thing, I get the feeling when the market moves down a little, like it did just now going from 165.02 to 164.80, it seems to me like traders are selling puts rather than holding on.
Then the SPY trades back up. We don't get a lot of follow through on the downside.
Positives for today,
Europe all closed positive.
We have been down a lot and they pin it on Syria, though I think that was an excuse to sell then trading it higher. Whatever happens with Syria, the aftermath is typically higher.
Interest rates are down.
We are above the 5 day MA, which I use to see if short term we are moving up or down. Often we move a little about this in this correction. So that would make the top 165.28 or there abouts +/- 0.1.
End of quarter which is often positive.
The only negative is fear of what might happen, and now it seems what might happen is at least 5 days if not longer in the future. And of course all the downside means many are willing to put the trigger and sell.
We could get a little sell off past in the last 1.5 hours of trading.
But I think I will stay out, calls are already reflecting the rally, puts can still tank quite a bit from current prices.
any thoughts on what posted ?
If we break out above 165 SPY I have a feeling we could go as high as spy 166, but likely Friday. A reverse head and shoulders.
And I see all the high flyers hedge fund favs doing very well.
fyi, I sold at 0.44 --.03, I think we push higher, and the long weekend up to Friday is usually bullish.
question about buying index puts or any calls really and type of option.
How close the bottom when you buy do you come and still think it was a good buy? Likely in percentage terms, since it varies.
For instance today I bought some spy 164.5 puts at 0.47 now it is 0.42x0.43, with a current bottom at 0.41.
So do you think you failed when you buy a little to high, and how high?
It's a little early to buy puts, we could make another push higher.
Take care roy, I think there are a lot of glucose testing companies, but how many are under medicare I have no idea.
Now the response to Syria could happen over the long weekend. If so it could be all over by Tuesday, setting up for another extension of this relief rally.
Harder to predict IMO with Syria in play.
I have to go back to what I thought before, 2 day rally, maybe it peaks up Thu AM. Or EOD today.
I would wait for a higher price to buy SPY or IWM puts, and I think this war stuff will eventually result in a rally that will get the SPY up to something like 164-165 range, which would be a better price to expect another down leg.
Maybe Thruday is a better day for the rebound rally, I sold today for a small profit.
If we strike chemical weapons storage sites, then we would release those weapons into the atmosphere. We would get a lot of blame for that.
We will likely strike at military and missile bases.
Bot some SPY 164 calls at 0.66, not sure so it's a small position.
Out at 0.77 , it appears if I want to buy it will have to be EOD. The low is likely to be EOD.
Buy SPY 164 calls at 0.73.
I think Wed we rally back to about 164.50-164.70.
IMO the next fake out rally will be the war conflict rally. If we shoot missiles then it will be shortly over. If we don't and come to some sort of agreement, same same result. We rally once Syria is definite.
Because the talking heads are trying to say this tank is Syria, which IMO is just an excuse to tank.
So maybe a Friday rally?
TSLA probably won't fall hard. It will be a 2 steps up, 3 down herky jerky kind of fall at first. Suck in put buyers and chew them up kind of fall.
Maybe when it becomes obvious at some point 1/2 way down it will tank completely.
I have tried to trade many a Tsla type company, they are quite difficult since the stock is run by hedge funds and heavily shorted.
It's not even safe to be short the stock since the hedge funds can call in your short shares and force the stock up.
The problem with trading today is you need to have gotten set up the day before with puts, now there might not be any good setup left.
We might be a minor bounce, but this is a bear market IMO.
In the past it was extremely rare to see an index down more than 6 days. There was always a relief rally.
Also, when the index sells off harder after hours, I have often see it turn around and move higher. Not a long term thing, not longer than a day, but it often happens.
Interest rates are really spiking up today.
Geez, glad I gave up trading futures overnight.
At one point the ES futures were down 12. The charts yesterday looked like a possible rally, and the spike up during the day looked like short covering.
I should give up my propensity to try and predict the market.
well now it looks like straight down, but it's tough to want to hold any sort of option overnight.
I don't get what that rally was about when we briefly went green yesterday.
Bits, we always need to remember what our task is here, that we must deduce/imagine/forecast what our competition (the universe of other traders at any point in time) thinks should happen. That can be quite a bit different from forecasting what the underlying stock (and any option strike) should do.
I am more worried about what kind of crazy idea I might get.
It seems like I have been mostly buying that right price, but I underestimate how far a trend will go. UP or down.
I am surprised we went positive, surprised how much we sold down after that, and it still looks like we could get a 2 day rally.
well screw the dime, I could have gotten 1.50 instead of 0.90. :)
This is the market triple play fake out.
Or maybe everyone is confused?
Bot SPY 165 put at 037, out at 0.47, I think the downside move on the FED chatting up the market was enough downside for this week.
Kind of like cover for real selling? If big money sold on any other day it would be looked at with negativity. With this big a swing, who know what real money was leaving the markets.
I am out for good today. I still get the feeling we have had too many down days without a relief rally, this is the perfect excuse for a relief rally.
IMO today spike down established a spike down on a chart I forget what they call it, allowing big trader to move up the SPY to 165.8 or so in the next few days.
IMO machines are trading this too fast for me.
bot spy 164.5 call at 0.80
sold at 0.90, not much I could have gotten 1.00
If today or tomorrow the SPY gets close to 165.80 I am thinking going short big.
Today I am not convinced we can close green, but it we get close it will power a move on Thursday.
IMO we are either in a 10 % or 20% correction, but still a lot of money to boost stocks like yesterday.
Any thoughts to how high we can go on the SPY before selling off again?
Then if we close even for the day, you are wrong.
I think we close around spy 165.20. Down for the day, but not by much.
Or we drop of the channel on the downside.
not dumb, just nearly impossible to hit tops and bottoms, I wouldn't beat myself up over a profit just because it was smaller.