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I have missed smartones posts lately......maybe he gave up on us as a right wing board. He should be happy, since he is for Obama..and I don't see how the Arab (just kidding) can lose now.
Anyway, smart put us on to the intro of the 3 gigabit iphone due to be introduced soon..probably June 9. For myself, it has been part of the reason I see a generally positive trend in techs through the first few days of June. Then I will probably be a seller. For an informative blog, see the link.
http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/patterson/19885/your-3g-iphone-questions-answered/
de-junking the Junk Science of global warming link to increased hurricane activity. When will the farcical nature of this whole green movement end? It's now where I almost am embarassed for the kooks.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,356549,00.html
I was thinking there should have been one more:
JEREMIAH WRIGHT: The damn White Man made that chicken cross the road. That chicken was oppressed by G. damn America. Seventeen generations ago that chickens forefathers were kept in confinement in a chicken coop like they were slaves.....this chicken got out of that coop and he ran. That chicken crossed the road to be with us, the prophetic black church....and he is going to roost with us.
re: Iran's oil reserves running out........one can only hope. The present regime is "buying" the acceptance of the Iranian people by subsidizing things from bread to gasoline.
If that revenue were reduced the political unraveling there would rival the collapse of the Soviet empire, imo.
I would like to believe the running out part..but the data I have says that Iran is sitting on the 2nd largest reserves in the world..second only to Saudi Arabia. The two items are incompatible..one or the other is wrong.
Is the data on the amount of reserves Iran has, wrong?..perhaps, but I don't understand why.
Could Iran be deliberately cutting production to build the case for a need for nuclear power?
The best thing going for the West and Iran's nuclear intentions, is that Israel has the top intelligence in the world..and they won't be fooled. If it is military in possible use, the Israelies will be forced to take it out. Forced, because they cannot live under the threat of nuclear annilihation from a bitter enemy only 600 miles away.
..so..how does a candidate for President make a slip of speech mentioning campaigning in 57 states???...why 57? If you are going to make a mistake, why not 52, or 54?...why 57?...unless...........From a blog..and yes, there is video confirmation he said he was going to campaign in all 57 states.
"Obama said he's going to campaign in 57 states, and it turns out that there are 57 Islamic states. There are 57 Islamic states. "Every year from 1999 to 2005, the organization of the Islamic conference representing the 57 Islamic states," this is from the International Humanist and Ethical Union. And the title of the piece here is, "How the Islamic states dominate the UN human rights council," and there are 57 of them. So did Obama just lose his bearings, or was this a more telling slip, ladies and gentlemen? Obama's 57 states, not just a simple gaffe. He might have been thinking of the 57 Islamic states when he said he was going to campaign in all 57 states."
Very interesting.
here I am, the new-to-the-neighborhood bull..and I'm short today. I shorted the RUT at the close yesterday..maybe I was a day early..maybe I will get clobbered tomorrow.
..or one more thing is that you are so rich you need tax write offs..
Gleno..for your consideration..the better short over most of the last year..and for the last few months, has been the RUT.
Take a look at the relative strength compared to the NDX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT:$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81939644736&listNum=1&a=78598219
..and like drilling for oil, the dems, if Obama wins, will not allow either to occur. What schmucks.....
Gleno..no doubt it is far underground, and hardened. What I am going to share is no military secret..pretty open knowledge hereabouts, but not talked much about.
The military has been, over the last 2 years or so, testing some deep penetrating conventional explosive warheads on bunker busters. They are testing these in the Nevada mountains southwest of here. Using precision guided bombs, they are working on the technique of blasting a hole deep into the rock, with each bomb entering the hole of the previous one, and penetrating still further.
That is why, in part at least, the conventional thought is that it will not be a one fly-over operation..and may take days, up to a week or more. It will have to be plane after plane flying over the same coordinates. That means the first order of business will be to take out all Iranian defensive capabilities. It also means they will attack from flying over Iraq..and therefore must do that before the US presence is removed.
I do not think Israel will use nuclear weapons and open that box in the Middle East....unless they are pushed to the extreme. I do believe it will get done with bunker busters. Regards.
Rhetorical question: How can Israel fail to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities?? They have taken out Iraq's in the past, and Syria's more recently......in the face of the consequences of not acting..they MUST act!
The question is when? Israel's intelligence is the best in the world, imo. I am confident they have someone(s) who is giving them inside intelligence on the state of readiness of the facility.
If Israel wants U.S. political cover (and perhaps some help) they had better do it before Bush leaves office. I think Bush will ask that they delay the strike until after the elections..so my pick in the office pool is Nov 10 to Dec 15 time frame. See news link:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,355599,00.html
Fox..very nice chart and analysis. Your points are well made.
My general take is that the pump that has been going on by the Fed, and the dynamics of election year, make me think that there will be a rally into or near election day. A pullback or two of 5% could be expected along the way, but I think the strength of the rally may be surprising.
That doesn't mean the bear is dead......just delayed. It seems to me as though 2009 could be a bad year for the longs. You hinted at that in a comment recently, and I think you are right. Obama will use the "chickens coming home to roost" analogy, citing the bad policies of the Bush years..and may get a pass from the liberal press. But somewhere, sometime, the chit for all the "free money" the Fed is injecting is going to come due, and there will be heck to pay.......all imo, of course.
Thanks for the tip. I will take another look. Is there an indicator that you like to use in combination with the ADX that complements or confirms the ADX?
Gleno..I've joined you on the short side for tomorrow. Sure looks like a down day to me, but I've been wrong often enough.
Yes, I understand the ADX, but have not been able to find a way to use it to advantage. There are those who like it though. I think the ultimate oscillator may be under used..also the Aroon...at least I don't hear much discussion concerning them. Both can be helpful in finding tops.
stolen from a blog:
An unfortunate truth is that Washington's plan for nation building has been hamstrung because the insurgents have been targeting contractors and construction workers. This lethal violence maneuvered the US into a "security first, reconstruction later" mode, reminding us that on every battlefield, the enemy always has a vote.
True, the United States has poured billions into rebuilding Iraq. But the standing joke among Iraqis is that a US company will be awarded a $10 billion contract. The work is then subcontracted to a construction company in Kuwait, which in turn subcontracts to an Iraqi firm, which in turn hires four kids to paint a school. Iraqis then laugh and say, "You can be sure none of those kids ever sees the $10 billion." This cynicism, along with the legacy of massive corruption under former dictator Saddam Hussein, has hobbled US reconstruction efforts.
Fox..thanks for your response, and understanding.
Your take on the probable election of Obama, and the probable success of his first four years is very interesting. Dick Morris has been saying for a month that Hillary and Bill will hope that is just the case, or that McCain wins. In either case, Hillary will be able to run again in 2012 (she could go in the convention against Obama if his first administration were a disaster)..the Clintons think she will be too old in 2016.
Another possibility for her would be to be chosen as VP candidate, and succeed to the Presidency through a terrible tragedy like the JFK thing.
The Clintons seem obsessed with her as President. I think she will probably be a somewhat small paragraph in history.
whatever.
Fox...I'm sorry if I offended you......believe me, my post was not meant at any one person, and certainly not you. I should just keep my mouth shut. I am trading at a different time period that most everyone on this board...and no one has hassled me!! Truth be told, I admire those of you who trade options..I am sure I would be shucked like the country boy I am, if I were to try that.
If I could rewrite, I would try to say in a kindly way, that there might be some indicators on the longer term signaling strength. There will be the inevitable pull back..but in an election year, perhaps the trend into the election might be higher.
No, I didn't add...I sold 50% of my longs at Mondays close, and am now more comfortable at this level. I let myself get too extended and leveraged at the close Friday for my own peace of mind. Best regards.
Speaking of triple tops......today the NDX made what I think is the 5th consecutive triple top breakout on the P&F chart, since 3/31.
I don't mean to be a smartA$$, but some here seem to be continually amazed at the strength of the rally. In the P&F realm, there is nothing more bullish than a triple top breakout..now we have had five.
I know most here are trading intraday..but there is little to be suprised about in the strength of movement from 4/1, imo.
Please don't ban me. I can repent in a minute, and take a bearish side too. good trades to all.
Carter was the biggest disappointment as President that I have experienced. Even though I didn't vote for him..I had high hopes I was wrong. His administration was a disaster.
I was not disillusioned about Clinton.
Clinton was a snake, and everyone knew he was a snake, and the little credit I will give him is that he didn't try to act as anything but a snake. History will record that he was impeached.....yes he was!...he was impeached by the House of Representatives..he was not removed from office by a close vote in the Senate.
Carter was not a snake..in fact he is a really nice guy. The problem was he was a completely inept administrator, and held the view that if we speak politely to other nations, they will love, respect, and treat us nicely. I'm afraid Obama is naive in foreign affairs in the same way.
smart..thanks for the info. I read that Apple has a tech convention in June..I think it very likely that will be the big unveiling, with a lot of fanfare. Note to self to be long a day or so ahead of that, and then sell the news. Regards.
Adding to smart's comments on the iphone..there is a new Blackberry about to be introduced.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24577837/
Still zero down home mortgages available? How crazy is this??
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24580917/
RCKS.. this is the buying strength I hoped to see today. The more I looked at the market over the weekend, the more it looked as though we were at a critical level..and could break either way. I began to get nervous the more I looked. I had loaded, very heavily for me, after the Wednesday drop because I thought the bullish signs were so strong.
Depending on how we end the day, I will probably take about 50% of my exposure to cash. The IT strategy we talked about over the weekend is still in play, for me. Regards.
smart..thanks for the update on the iphone. I remember you tipped us on that one a couple weeks ago.
In your opinion..will the 3G business be big enough to continue a tech rally for awhile longer..or is it a case of better to sell the news? I have a time projection for an end of rally in late May. That seems to be in sync with a late May introduction by Apple. My investment plan, much in flux at the moment..is to probably take profits a day after the announcement, assuming that some investors will not be as well informed as you are, and jump aboard at the announcement. Your thoughts, sir?
Fox..just an opinion about stops..especially tight ones. I know it is supposed to be the conventional wisdom to use them..but I have found them to cost me more times than not.
For those who cannot watch the market action, they do make sense.....in my experience, I often would get stopped out, as profit-taking by some players occured and the prices reversed..only to see the original trend continue.
I think stops make the most sense when applied to a long trend (multi-week), and the trend is obviously getting long in the tooth. Moving a trailing stop, say 3%, below the price seems like a prudent move in those conditons.
I may get slings and arrows for this opinion, and if stops work for you, by all means use them. Regards.
Some pretty positive buying showing up, especially on the NDX and RUT...SPX following behind..weighed down by it's large financial component, I suppose. The NDX:CPC ratio had a large spike early on, which has pulled back some..but still predicting some upside.
I am expecting some upside this week, and if shorts cover, it could be a nice run to targets. Then it will be time to re-evaluate. Regards.
Interesting that China is opening up now to Christianity. That can only be beneficial in merging the cultures with the West. There is much to be admired about the Chinese people, and if their government will get out of the way, they will quickly become an economic giant............just like if our govt would get out of the way of small and large business, we would not be hearing talk of recession, depression, etc. Unfortunately, we are moving towards socialism, while China is moving away..and towards the system that built this great nation. Sigh. Who's yo Mama? Obama, Obama, Obama.
More evidence of global cooling...dang, this is getting serious.
Is there a way Algae can be stripped of his Nobel prize....I mean if the standards by which he won it are thoroughly discredited, then...
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
RCKS..very nice analysis on the link you provided. Yes, we are seeing it in the same way. I am going to be looking closely at support levels..and am ready to cut losses quickly, if we are wrong.
I don't think there is much doubt there will be a substantial rally into the election...shorter term is the question.....I had projected a rally continuing to about 1480 on the S&P...then a drop, before the rally into the election. It is possible that 1480 is not going to be reached on this leg, and the action last week may have been the first indication of that. I don't think so at the moment..but I want to see some buying strength on Monday, or I will seriously cut my long exposure. Regards.
Foot..what I see in the aggregate (there are always cases to be made each way), is that there are fewer sellers, and a lot of sideline money ready to buy. This looks like we just finished a consolidation week, and are prepared for a push up (and through?) some resistance.
At least, that is how I have positioned going into Monday. Perhaps I will have some wounds to lick, but that is the way I see it. gl/gt.
Bob...do you think the products are equivalent? What a disparity in price, if so. I am hoping John delves into it a bit more. What a demand there would be if it meets its' claims. Thanks for the information..and to others who responded.
Anyone from UK? What a product in the linked news item. Do you know how an investor might buy into the manufacturing company? Thanks.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,354735,00.html
Very nice market action the past few days for the IT bull side, imo. Might get a nice lift on Monday if no bad news item happens.
Gleno..true enough..we're working our way back though, don't you think? And, at a much more healthy price slope.
And, heck! we're about to get a Dem adminsitration, coupled with a Dem controlled Congress......can't you just imagine what sort of government spending programs will get enacted?
Maybe we should give all our money to charity so we could be among the "poor and needy"....and just let the government take care of us for the rest of our lives. NOT...I will fight to the end...pant..gurgle..gasp......silence.
Sometimes I look at a weekly chart on the NDX as a reminder of just how far we have to go yet to be back to the 2000 highs...I wonder how many who bought near the high are still holding? gulp.
Better news is the 200ma held, we are above the 50ma...and the CCI200 is above 100. I think this election year will prove to be like most, positive for the market by year end.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=W&yr=10&mn=11&dy=0&id=p97510394939&listNum=1&a=80525275
Hi Dan...can't say I understand how they plan to structure the new issue either, but it WILL get fixed. The short-term question is how much market impact will linger. Most of the earnings news has been positive, and I think this drop will be bought.
I have a daughter and family in Huntsville, Ala......she is an engineer in the space center there. The storm that visited you passed through there yesterday afternoon. Glad the worst stuff passed you by..
Is it just me..or is it improved communications..or are there really many more natural disasters and storms ocurring in the last 5-10 years or so?? It's probably due to global warming LOL!..or is it global cooling, now? It's hard to keep up.
Hi Bob..not Gleno, but Gleno is moving on... I lived in Malaysia for several years for my U.S. company, engineering the assembly and testing of Integrated Circuits. A very interesting culture there..about 50% of the people were Buma Putra, or native Malaysians, and Muslim. About 25% were of Chinese immigrant ancestry, and Budhist..the other 25% were of Indian immigrant heritage, and were Hindu.
On the surface there seemed to be calm..and acceptance of one another. As I got to know the Chinese and Indian engineers, I discovered there was a mutual animosity among the groups..sometimes developing into serious beatings or killings for the ethnics who found themselves in the wrong areas. The Chinese were particularly afraid of going outside Kuala Lumpur, into the villages, on the chance that their vehicles would be stopped, and they beaten or killed.
I found it sad..I have a firm belief that we are all God's children, and brothers and sisters...it is a pity that something in our nature stirs cultural and ethnic distaste, and even hatred.
farooq...pure coincidence that I posted at the same time you were......the story has nothing to do with Muslims..just substitute any bad guy for the terrorist in the story.
I apologize if I offended you..it was unintentional.