20%

Zip-
Many people ask about this Reg SHO so I decided to do some digging for more info. I called our prime broker and asked some questions. Here is what I found:
i) To be on the Threshold List a stock has to have failed to deliver for 13 days at at least one broker (i.e. that broker does not have access to borrow). This day 13 is the "day 1" on the threshold list.
ii) The broker who does not have access to borrow has no access to shares to loan in their own accounts and does not have access to borrow shares from another broker. This more often happens at smaller brokers. For example, someone is short 10k shares of XYZ at Needham and Needham suddenly does not have access to 10k shares to loan out. They dont have these 10k shares either in their own accounts or access to these shares at brokers they may have relationships with (for example, Lazard and Cowen). Therefore there is a failure to deliver.
iii) Being on the threshold list is not a given that there is not borrow anywhere (in the above example there could still be borrow available to Goldman clients, (say GS didnt have a relationship with Needham) so Goldman clients could still get borrow and short. This is a common misconception among retail trades- that once a security is on the threshold list, that it is not borrowable/shortable anywhere. However, being on a threshold list, the more relationships that given broker has, the better proxy it is for overall borrow conditions for the stock in the marketplace.
iv) Buyins can occur at any unpredictable time once a stock has been on the threshold list. I could not pin down an exact # of days on the threshold list for a buyin to occur. Once upon a time I also knew how many on again off again days a buyin would take place for- but I forgot.

Hope this helps some peroples' understanding.

I would agree that markets are not efficient. Look at the massive swings in stocks levered to mining (Joy Global (JOYG), etc.)- these names move 50% routinely in the recent 6-12 months- its not like the outlook for global metals or manufacturing changes that much in that short of a time.
Take biotech- DNDN moves in particular.
Look at RPRX, particularly last November when many of us scooped up the shares dumped by HBK, XMark and the like. These guys made bad decisions and gave up big money to be made. In fact XMark has had such problems that word is that they have been redeemed out of existence. People make mistakes or trade based on wrong assumptions, or have to trade to meet portfolio needs. All of these provide opportunity.

I think for you to assume there will be a large public deal forthcoming is not necessarily the best assumption. I'll leave it at that.

To me this feels a lot like Nov 2006 when there was puking and shares were being consolidated. There is as pervasive of a fear/perplexedness in the market surrounding the stock now as there was then. I look at the funds who puked then and many have been redeemed out of existence (which tells me about their investment track record).

Hint.... Do a search on Praecis and Glaxo Smith Kline and Efficacy. Look what they did there and PRCS was a POS.

IMO- there is a redemption of a fund going on and they have to get lighter or out. This is where the shares are coming from. Its not a fundamental issue with the molecules or the company.

careful dude, dont piss off Quogue, I'd prefer them to be long.

I want to personally thank those who sold their shares in the 8s and 9s. I hoovered them up! We should see something Monday morning. Higher prices coming.
As far as Ymax character- he states that PPS goes down unless there is a Japan partnership. I presume he has little to know knowledge of biotech as a partnership typically takes 6-12 months to negotiate not 3 weeks (time since the idea was postulated). If he had any sack he would put up a large offer at the open Monday. Let me know big guy.

Told by whom?

Partner the F'ing drug. Lets stop talking about it for 12-18 months and do it. I say partner it by February or scrap it.

In case anyone was wondering...
This is why we are sitting at $10 or below:
i) CEO sets unrealistic expectations that are never hit
ii) This is the only stock I know that goes down when company goes on the road because of (i) and he is obsessed with talking about financing events that are 1 yr away.

Activist Wish List (to Third Point or Pirate Capital or whomever):
The CEO is doing a good job of amassing solid clinical data but we need to following done to extract value-
i) Help the CEO to set timelines which are stuck to and not perpetually postponed (fibroids NDA, Androxal partnership)
ii) Motivate Dr van As to work faster and remind him he is not in France. The time it took him to submit the Androxal materials and fibroids materials and to set up those meetings was borderline retarded. Fibroids study was done in the spring and PIII materials not submitted to FDA until October
iii) Force a partnership with Androxal immediately on any terms. We have been discussing a partnership for over one year- NEEDS TO BE DONE. Most people I know think this is a joke. Why were we talking about partnership in 2006?
iv) Hire a medical writer- if it takes Dr Van As 6+ months to file FDA paperwork how is he going to have time to summarize data in a journal article
v) Vet expectations before spreading to investment community
vi) Keep putting up good clinical data
vii) Force a sale of the company within 12 months.

That's a ridiculous statement.
Joe may not be the most polished public speaker and could certainly use some pointers about presentation content and setting expectations, but to insinuate he is somehow crooked or is deliberately trying to drive the price down is ridiculous. The guy has enough stock and options and doesnt need anymore options at lower prices (i believe the issue date is late spring anyways).
I would agree that his presentations at CIBC and Rodman were decent but could have been better. I think many of us know what some of those improvable issues are and I dont feel the need to further harp on them given the stock is down 15%+ since he began speaking and why give more fuel to the fire.
There is a clear lack of marketing going on here- part of it is the market's "I dont care" sentiment and many btks are going down. Part of it is poor brokerage support, and the same institutions holding the same stock and a small float being passed around causing volatility that is not warranted. The story is stronger now than ever. Nov 30 should be a solid meeting.
With regards to the marketing help to institutions and in terms of publishing articles summarizing data, i thought we had a poster here that was interested in doing such- enough so to cluster**** me with a conference call in early September such that I could connect him with Joe- this guy hasnt called the company yet.

What happened to a certain poster contacting Joe Podolski about discussing working with the company? Did his English boss not give him the green light?

I dont understand the trading in this stock particularly if this stock price action over the last few days is an institutional holder, small or a large one parsing a small amount. Most institutions know who can take a block of stock and would know where to shop such a block but these seller(s) seem intent on causing optical damage to the stock price rather than optimal price execution.
Weird IMO.

See below. They did not give p value for the reduction scores b/c there is no way it is stat sig. Not comparable efficacy to something like Proellex. Also see the low estrogenic state like Lupron. The continuation study they reference in this full PR has active comparator which I believe is injectible Lupron per the person I know in the study.

Neurocrine Biosciences Announces Positive Results From Second Phase II Study With Its Orally Active GnRH Receptor Antagonist in Endometriosis
SAN DIEGO, Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: NBIX) today announced positive preliminary results from its second 'proof of concept', safety and efficacy Phase II clinical trial over a 3-month treatment period using its proprietary, orally-active nonpeptide Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone (GnRH) receptor antagonist (NBI-56418) in patients with endometriosis. In 2006, the Company previously reported positive results from the completion of the first 3-month 'proof of concept' double-blind treatment period and additional 3-month follow up period of a parallel Phase II exploratory trial with NBI-56418 given once daily to endometriosis patients. This second exploratory study, which was also started in 2006, was designed to evaluate dose-response and twice daily dosing.

The newly reported preliminary 3-month data comes from a multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving patients with a confirmed diagnosis of endometriosis. The study followed a parallel-group design in which 68 subjects were randomized to one of three treatment groups: placebo, 50 mg of NBI-56418, or 100 mg of NBI-56418 each administered twice daily. Dosing started on Day 2 to Day 7 of the menstrual cycle and continued over 12 weeks with assessments of symptoms and signs of disease conducted at 4-week intervals using the Composite Pelvic Sign and Symptoms Score (CPSSS) for the primary endpoint of reduction in endometriosis symptoms. In addition, assessment of pain intensity was measured daily by a Visual Analog Scale (VAS) and collected by electronic diary. Full data regarding treatment impact on menses and a variety of biomarkers will be available at the completion of the ongoing 3-month safety follow-up period.

For the primary endpoint of CPSSS, which has a maximum possible value of 15, mean values at baseline were 7.8, 7.2 and 8.3 for the placebo, 50 mg and 100 mg groups respectively. After treatment, there were reductions of 4.3 (placebo), 4.7 (50 mg) and 5.3 (100 mg) points in the score at week 12. The dysmennorrhea component of the scale showed the most consistent dose-related reductions of 0.9, 1.3 and 1.9 points and dysmenorrhea was absent at 12 weeks in 81% of women randomized to the 100 mg group compared to 17% of the placebo recipients. The VAS data reveal dose-related improvements in "worst pain" (maximum score), particularly at Week 4 with reductions of 3 (placebo), 17 (50 mg) and 20 (100 mg) from the screening period maximum VAS means of 73, 68 and 72 respectively.

Make that I think it is oral Lupron vs injected Lupron- with their drug being the oral- if I am wrong pls forgive me I have not looked at the story in a few months since their unremarkable data they announced earlier this yr.

I think they are trying for an oral Lupron.

If you look at the data for the Neurocrine drug it is fairly unremarkable and they are pretty vague on the PRs as well. I know someone in this trial and it is a shot/oral with one being the drug- she isnt happy with the symptom relief and she is pretty desperate for help from endo pain.
My guess is they dont get a partner anytime soon.

Efficacy Capital raises stake and is now at ~13%.

Ownership- a few had earlier comments.
JP owns between 100-200k shares and approximately 400k options if I recall correctly. He'll do fine in a sale. The CFO owns some and has options too. JP has made some open market purchases, most recently in Fall 2006 and never sold. Who is to say he won't buy again? His salary is not conducive to making huge open market purchases in a consistent manner. Look at the DEF14A to see stock ownership and options ownership of mgmt and form 3/4s for open market purchases. This BOD doesn't have the deepest of financial pockets (they are scientists mostly) so don't expect much there in terms of purchases.

With respect to #1- the other isomer of clomid negates the effect for the most part of the active isomer, hence a highly muted overall effect.

I would argue how do we know this. Why have prior studies of T shown no difference in glucose levels but Androxal (albeit on a retrospective basis) have- makes one wonder if it is the piuitary that is also affecting other hormones and not T directly- i forgot from med school but what about if cortisol is involved here via stimulation from pituitary and not the action of T directly.

That was a patch- it further shut down the pituitary. Not sure how your article relates to Androxal.

Reply to 1994-
Two hormones are T and LH; glucose is a sugar/carbohydrate not a hormone.

Overall this is my take:
Going into the meeting I would have said on a scale of 0-10:
Unable to agree on endpoint: 0
QOL endpt with T: 3-4
T plus/minus metabolic: 9-10

I think what we saw is the buy-in that there needs to be no QOL as it relates to sexual f(x) and the FDA clearly noted the endocrine relationship.
It looks as though RPRX will need to in the quick near term design a protocol with a metabolic endpt and discuss this further with FDA. Discussing the relationship further and potentially doing more studies that show a (+) correlation between low T due to pituitary failure and things like high glucose or other wide spanning metabolic abnormalities means two things: on the negative perhaps an additional US study teaing out these relationships prior to the pivotal two PIIIs (hence timing is backed off slightly) BUT on the POSITIVE the potential end market for Androxal just got much larger if there can be a study that more clearly teases out metabolic syndrome and Androxal as a treatment. In Europe they are still home free. Overall I rate this a 7-8 out of 10 as far as my interpretation with what little we have to go on. I will encourage the company when I talk to JP to keep everyone as updated (via cc) as possible as they did with the endo program upon milestones being hit.

Oh boy.
Pumping the winners.
Remember when you told him to buy MNTA in the 20s, FLML in the 20s, ENCY in the 9s, etc.......
Let's provide the whole picture pls.

yes,
clomid is both isomers, androxal is one isomer.
androxal is the isomer which is anti-estrogen and shorter acting- thus raises LH/testosterone/FSH.
Other isomer is more pro-estrogen so the clomid combo has both effects so the anti-estrogen effect is mitigated.

Zip you're a smart guy but I think some tenure on the buy-side would help your understanding. I think if you had larger sums of money to put to work under at times artificial timelines for performance, you would at times narrow your "eligible" investable company focus and would appreciate liquidity in names you loved fundamentally.

The argument that splits cause a rise in prices or value is an argument of liquidity. It's not the action of the split, it's the resultant higher number of shares. It's an old argument that has been proven a number of times and is taken as gospel in many settings- for me it was standard procedure to have a slide about increased liquidity increasing value as part of Ibanking pitches when discussing implications of follow-on offerings (same as split in that there is increased float). Not to say there werent ulterior motives but it has been seen empirically.

Short interest down 31%- any recent weakness is stock is probably due to a decent sized holder selling a position. What gets me is now of all times? Where was this person at $15?

Interesting point by grandpatb.
Stock is now trading near nothing and is getting walked down. The only 1000 share trades I have seen have been lifting offers (buys)- otherwise it is 100 shares at a time - if someone really wanted to sell, they'd put up some size at the ask.
This is ridiculous.

When asked, JP has always said that Vasomax is still a viable drug. From the research i've done/seen, it is still saleable in Latin America but not in U.S. We've encouraged him in the past to monetize this asset through a sale of it or do something that doesnt cost much money- i even believe they have a fair amount of inventory of the drug still in a warehouse somewhere. Why not sell the drug to a spec pharma or why not sell it through a distributor in Latin America.

Ok, my bad. I am always too literal on Mondays. Seriously, we had someone who worked here who was complaining of it. She got in the trial for NBIX's drug and informed me. I told her that's great but the drug isnt that good. She said "we'll see". First few weeks went ok, then low and behold, symptoms returned. I said, "I told you the drug sucked. Get on the Repros trial if there is one around here".
Pretty funny.

I know a few and they're miserable. Look how many endo trials there are going on now- AEZS had one, NBIX has one and RPRX found 20 centers to run it very quickly. I know someone in NBIX's trial in which women are all getting drug- either oral or injection and she's still miserable. Reiterates that GnRHs agonists/antagonists are not the solution.

I think JP is in Europe on the road with a broker this week. Good luck. I hope money flow in France shifts from companies with white flag factories to U.S.-domiciled small-cap spec pharmas focused on reproductive health.

We are in agreement on the (I will spell it wrong) illegitimi. I was referring to a few select healthcare hedge funds who dont always trade on fundamentals and attempt at times to manipulate the price of stocks.

In regards to a comment I made (according to you) to croumagnon- not sure if/when i replied to him/her. If it was offensive i apologize.

Still think we move higher soon.

Disagree with "negotiating disadvantage" argument.
Fristly, pharma and investment bankers (I used to be one) are very knowledgeable regarding who is and who isnt for sale. If you dont want to be sold you wont find yourselves in pitchbooks, etc. and pharma wont be as interested. It is not the "man chasing woman who keeps saying no" argument which would lead to higher valuation at sale. What will ultimately lead to higher valuation is strong data and letting others know you are willing to be sold to drive an auction process. The auction process is what will bring the highest dollar. An auction process cannot get underway for a company who reiterates its desire to go it alone.

I think we are fine here. Oct 15th outcome should be positive, at a minimum, it will provide a path whatever that may be- which is certainly better than what is being baked into stock now. I also believe starting PIIIs for fibroids concurrently will drive stock higher.

Ever since XMark sold in the mid single digits upon advice of HBK from what I hear- theyve been performing miserably.

Speaking of the Biotech Mafia- has XMark shut down yet? Heard they were struggling. What about Joe or Wayne?