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off-topic
I know you want me to leave but that's not going to happen.
There is still a lot I have to teach you guys.
I agree in general. It would be helpful if they state for instance, from now on, that they will be targeting a share price of $5+ when they uplist to Nasdaq or Amex. And that they will do a reverse split simultaneously if needed. Because it is a requirement.
It doesn't help if we have Solomon running around telling everyone he doesn't want to do a reverse split. Because we already know that he will do it if it is needed. He's not going to delay the uplisting, that would be foolish.
I agree that they should throw in the "bad news" of a R/S with the good news and "mix it up". Do it as soon as possible. By the time we get there, nobody cares.
It's very simple IMO. We will probably be trading close to $2 6 to 12 months from now. When we uplist, the worries of a reverse split won't go away. The shorts may even push us below $2 forcing the company to do a reverse split later on.
Best to do a reverse split simultaneously and make it an $8 stock. The market will understand. And this will attract the big buyers and we will be trading at $20 before you know it. The shorts will never have a chance.
I don't need you.
A reverse split will not affect SIAF in a negative way.
One more word about it and I will leave this board.
I think people who worry about a reverse split should sell their stock immediately. You can still get $0.57 for your shares.
Idiots should not be holding this stock as we want strong shareholders.
Goodbye.
Can't you guys find something else to worry about?
How about Europe? Or slowing growth in China?
I did some research into R/S because I was confronted with it a couple of times. Stocks go down an average of 7% during the first 10 days and 13% during the first 25 days following a R/S. I don't remember the exact numbers but I should be close.
So it's easy money if you short every stock, right?
WRONG
There are a number of stocks that actually rally following a reverse split. Which ones? Can't be sure, but I think it's the ones with good fundamentals who weren't in a downtrend to begin with.
So if SIAF does a R/S because they have to, in order to uplist, I think the market will understand. The shorts are not stupid, you know. They prey on the weak, the ones that are forced to dilute. The ones that are not profitable. The ones with poor fundamentals.
I would like to see a R/S. One that would take us above $5 so that every institution is allowed to buy the stock.
But I think it's important that the company provides clarity early on. Because we're going to have this debate for the next 12 months with lots of people worrying about it for nothing if they don't.
Personally I'm fed up with some of you already and I think it is best if you sell the stock.
Have a nice life.
Perhaps to make my point clear, consider this.
Next time we get a fish contract, the company could inform us what to expect in year 1, year 2, and year 3 on the revenue side and with respect to earnings. Potentially spinning it off in year 4 which should result in raising x capital or paying out y in dividends. Tell the public that the company will most likely increase its stake to 75%, at cost, as soon as the farm starts producing revenue.
That's how you tell the growth story. And you could use the business model and extrapolate certain arguments why you think it's achievable.
I love the transparency when new contracts are published in 8-k's. To do it in English is really something. Definitely a confidence builder.
I am also happy with the levels of transparency in 10-Q's and 10-K's and the frequency of PR's.
I can see a lot of work has gone into this.
However, no company is perfect and there is always room for improvement.
I would like to mention 2 things that have come to my attention.
1) I think the company needs to clarify in the 10-Q's and 10-K's how they deal with issuing stock and repurchasing it. I've seen this with another company although I don't remember which one. There are not many who do this actively like SIAF does.
Basically, they need to state that they are not in the business of trading the stock. IMO.
2) As a former stock promoter you are probably aware that it is all about the ability to sell a dream. Convince the public that there is money to be made here. That the company has a big future etc.
What I have noticed is that companies that succesfully hyped the stock, all gave projections, not just one year, but a number of years ahead. And they all did it by issuing press releases.
We have to learn about certain aspects in conference calls (the spin-offs for instance) or some presentation that was held in Sweden.
We have to convince the public, somehow, that the growth story is real. That the demand is there. Tell them about the business model. And I believe we should focus on the investing community, not so much the shareholder base. That's the next step IMO.
The 10-k just says there could be a change in equity of up to 75% from year two onwards. So no reason to assume they can only buy 25% per year.
Basically the stock will go up if greed > fear.
Watch out when fear goes down and greed goes up. This stock will explode IMO. And there's no way of holding it back.
There are two main reasons why the share price will go up.
One is dividends. Perception now is that you will never get your money back if you invest in Chinese companies. So to show commitment and return 8% to shareholders every year gives SIAF an advantage.
Dividends is the way forward for all Chinese stocks.
The other one is growth. There are many companies out there that have 2x, 3x or even 7x more cash than their market cap. But their growth rate has been compromised.
I'm glad someone sees my point.
I also believe guidance should be PR-ed.
Let's focus on the business model now. There is a whole new market in China which consists of a bunch of filthy rich people who want to eat tasteful and healthy food and preferably pay as much as possible. They order 3 plates and walk out after having finished the 2nd plate. Why? Because they can. It's almost like a status symbol.
Now, you had this guy from Luxembourg on the conference call a while ago, a potential investor no less, questioning the price SIAF is getting for its beef. What that tells me is that he doesn't understand the business model. But who can blame him?
The only way you can learn about the business model is by studying the company really hard.
What they should be doing, is stuff it down our throats. Hand it to us on a silver plate. And all the rest as well. Things that we can only learn about by attending a conference call or by debating certain issues on here.
What I want them to do is target the investing community. Not their shareholder base.
I don't know what means are available to us, but press releases I believe is one way.
No, I'm not going to write an article on Seeking Alpha. I never did and I'm not going to start now. I believe this has to come from the company. Besides, I don't have an audience. Someone else may write an article, someone who does have an audience.
I don't have to be tolerant towards people who don't tolerate constructive criticism and who defend the company at all cost.
You know perfectly well I'm not in a position to write press releases.
Perhaps you are deaf.
Most of the things that would entice someone to buy the stock was communicated on here, during CC's, or through 8-k's.
That includes
- guidance
- uplisting and dual listing
- spin-offs
- multi-year expectations
- new website
- business model
etc.
It's not my job or responsibility to attract new shareholders. I don't get paid for that.
Conference calls are important when you have a number of institutional investors. It provides an opportunity for people to ask questions.
8-k's and presentations are important as well.
My point is, if you want to sell a dream then you have to address the investing community, not your shareholder base.
The things I learn about on here, or in 8-k's, I don't want to read about it on here. I want to read it in press releases. That's when I know they are targeting the investing community.
I don't suppose anyone on here has followed HEV (Ener1) or BCON (Beacon Power). American companies. I know a lot about this sector because I did a lot of DD on batteries.
HEV used to be a $1B company and BCON was way overvalued for many years as well. Both business models didn't make sense though, and they never had a chance. They are both bankrupt now.
So how come these companies were able to boost the share price for so long? Simple, they were able to sell a dream. These people were EXPERTS.
Sort of like Facebook now. A sucker is born every minute.
So here we are. SIAF is not a dream. It is reality!
But it won't help us much, for now, unless you can sell it.
That's true... you have to sell reality as well.
Amazing, but true.
How many people know the exact number? I can tell you I didn't know it was $103M.
How many people know they are building a new website?
How many people understand about a fully integrated enterprise. What does it entail?
They can put it all in one press release.
Sino Agro Food provides update on corporate developments
Wouldn't it be nice to have a press release like that?
They could tell us about earnings prospects for Q2 and for FY2012.
Mention the 2x2 contracts
Talk about the business plan going forward
We want to know what to expect for Q2!
We want them to tell the world what to expect for FY2012!
Not just in some 8K. You have to tell the world if you want to attract new shareholders.
Someone is planning to write an article on Seeking Alpha. He could definitely use this press release as reference. Let's make this a team effort!
I see a lot of debate recently about what to expect from the share price. People doing all sorts of calculations. Well, it's utter nonsense with a P/E = 1 when you should have a P/E = 50.
It can be anything a couple of months from now. We could be trading at a P/E =5 or even P/E=0.5 if there is more trouble in Europe.
WHAT MATTERS is what the company can do, what we can do to support the share price.
And I am telling you right now.
It's not like the company hasn't done this before.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110119006446/en/Sino-Agro-Food-Corporate-Update
CHINARTO (Bloomberg Chinese Reverse Mergers Index) is down 16% in the last month. That's huge. Although SIAF may not be strongly correlated to this index, sentiment must be weighing on SIAF too. We have a much better chance if this index goes up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CHINARTO:IND
Just listened to the CC
Couple of remarks
1) I thought it was a good mix of support and critical comments from the callers. Nothing wrong with that. And Solomon isn't easily intimidated.
2) Happy to learn that we are still expecting 2 x 2 new contracts.
3) You could notice a lot of callers from this board asking the right questions.
4) I can see why some of the JV-partners would return the shares if the company asks for it. It was to settle debt in the first place.
5) I think Solomon mentioned average weighed shares outstanding of 73.5M, not 70.5M. So be it, as long as we are clear about it, that it's going to be higher than anticipated.
6) Solomon rightly pointed out the gain when shares are issued. Not all that money is "lost". We sometimes forget that. Come on guys, let's get it out of our system. So we will be at 80M by year end and 90M by the end of 2013. Let's bring it out in the open, advertise it, get it over with. LOL.
I think they need some of those shares to create some form of strategic alliance. If you're going to invest equity in a restaurant chain then you want them to invest in the company as well. At that point, the value you lose by diluting your shares is compensated by building a strong relationship. I've seen it happen before.
There is one thing however that I do not understand. Vertical integration works ONLY when you know what you're doing. You gotta have the expertise. So where is it coming from?
Chad, I gave you the FACTS exactly because I didn't want to enter into a debate about them. But they are still FACTS.
I will give you another one although maybe not a fact this time.
We have broken the uptrend because, apparently, from what I hear, Solomon acted like an idiot today and didn't take his shareholders, WHO OWN THE COMPANY, seriously.
If Solomon can produce 0.68 fully diluted or even 0.62 fully diluted then it doesn't matter how many shares are outstanding.
It's that simple Your words..
Yes, but unfortunately the world doesn't give a damn what I think, DOES IT?
The world does care, however, what Solomon thinks and I think a press release would be helpful and appropriate.
And I want to add....
preferably BEFORE "someone" writes an article about SIAF on Seeking Alpha.
Chad, it would really help if the company gave guidance officially by issuing a press release. Solomon can tell us what to expect for Q2 and for the year. He can tell us about the business model in 2013 and beyond.
FACT
They have never given guidance officially. They did it in some presentation which doesn't count. I say it doesn't count because you can put anything in there and get away with it.
FACT
They gave us the O/S count from march 31 in the 10-Q when they should have given us the latest available number.
FACT
Nobody trusts these Chinese companies to begin with.
FACT
Solomon was wrong about projected growth in the Sweden 2010 presentation.
FACT
The company was wrong about a weighed average count of 70.5M in 2012
FACT
Whenever Solomon mentions "fully diluted" we can't be sure if he really means fully diluted or basic.
So how can you expect anyone in this environment to buy the stock when all the company has done so far, is sell it ?!?
It is your job to pass on investor sentiment and the company's responsibility to act in our best interests.
Solomon is going to have to put his ass on the line and make it "official". If they care about the share price.
We need some help here.
If Solomon can produce 0.68 fully diluted or even 0.62 fully diluted then it doesn't matter how many shares are outstanding.
It's that simple. Because we are talking about earnings/share here.
He will beat my estimate by 20% - 30%.
If he doesn't, then he's going to lose a lot of credibility. Because we are entering June already and there's no way he could be off by 0.05 or more.
I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
So maybe we should see 0.12 in Q2 as opposed to my 0.08.
Where/when can I listen to the tape recording?
Thanks.
btw, did he reafirm guidance or not?
You already mentioned share count accessibility. I think it would be great if the company displays the up to to date O/S number on their website for all to see. Do it on a separate page and attach a story that the company has a policy of settling debt for stock and repurchasing it later on so that it can deal efficiently with its limited resources.
No-one will question their intentions now.
And we, the shareholders, will be able to defend the company should someone want to start a smear campaign.
Many CEO's do it. I think it's a Chinese "thing".
There is no doubt they care. Perhaps their business is their life. I don't know exactly how this works.
Problem is, the public doesn't understand. And never will. And that's a serious problem that they have to deal with, one way or another.
Yeah, could someone remove my sticky post at the top?
I'm not kidding.
If all those shares were issued to employees then it's not as bad as it looks. But we don't know.
From 10-Q
"The Company calculated stock based compensation of $4,278,114 and recognized $1,069,529 and $0 for the three months ended March 31, 2012 and 2011, respectively. As of March 31, 2012, the deferred compensation balance of $1,069,528 was to be amortized over 3 months beginning on April 1, 2012. "
If I remember correctly then shares outstanding does not include treasury stock. So the answer is no.
79,089,294 shares outstanding
"Good Morning
The amount of outstanding shares for Sino Agro is 79,089,294 shares.
Jeanne Parsons
Transfer Agent
Broadridge Corporate Issuer Solutions Inc."
------------------
Up from 72,718,046 on April 9th (10-K)
They are going to have to repurchase a lot of shares to get to that 70.5M weighed average.
>> leaves $4M
The only explanation I can come up with is a potential advancement from this JV-partner
in deposits
Aquaculture contract with Gao Riqiang
7,600,476 as of march 31
3,085,164 as of dec 31
difference $4.6M
Just a guess