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We can't rule out Ackman either. He's a prime candidate and will surely help implement the Average Joe Plan
Commons would be dropped in that case also. Average Joe would not be happy in that situation. Let's hope that doesn't happen!
3.5 years in Preferreds. Previously held Commons for over 2 years before I came to the realization that Preferreds were the better bet.
I may buy some Commons for a quick trade if they go under $1. Otherwise, I'll ride it out with the Good Ol' Boys Club - Paulson, Mnuchin, and Berkowitz.
Warrants, of course! $100B for infrastructure
Mad Max going to cause some more pain for shareholders.
With Calabria at the helm + Mad Max, I think it's safe to say you can stick a fork in Commons.
We'll see what the market says in an hour.
#ReceivershipIsComing
Yet there's so much more on the table for them to take. Why would they stop now!? That would be like leaving Thanksgiving dinner before the turkey is served -- Crazy!!
The Government is going to eat their turkey (Warrants) and they might even stay for dessert (Sr. Preferreds Conversion to Commons).
kthomp should have put another 10 $ signs next to the Government category, because they're going to eat as much as they possibly can before leaving the dinner table
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Mnuchin = Moelis. Tim Rood is right! This would be great for all shareholders.
Let's hope Tim is right
There's another forum where people post GSE information? As long as people are free to post both the positives and negatives of investing in GSE Commons/Preferreds, count me in!
I must join this new site to spread the good word of Moelis.
JPS get Par, Commons deal with Receivership. Surprise!
I wonder how much Ackman would pay lawyers to fight for Commons considering how much Berkowitz & Paulson have spent with little to no progress.
I don't think many AJs will have the money to pay for lawyers when their stock is trading at $0.05 or less.
Makes 'em look great to the Treasury. Keep those billions flowing to the low income housing trusts. Maxine is all about giving to the low income, expect the GSE's money to flow right to the trusts.
New 3-year lows this week? I think so. If you think about it $FNMA is in the eye of the storm.
Volatility is bound to pick up again as the AJs start to question their investment in Commons.
When the lemmings see the selling avalanche start, it will only increase in as the momentum starts to snowball.
Don't rule out sub-$1 before Christmas. Santa Claus is coming to GSE Town. Get ready for those "cheapies"
PREFERREDS ON FIRE! What happened? Rotation seems likely. Discussion of a potential Receivership in Fannie Mae's 10Q are apparently triggering a full-scale Rotation into Preferreds.
Investors are proving which class of shares they consider Worthless Junk (Commons).
#TheGreatRotationHasBegun
$0.01 EPS. Barely profitable. Expect Receivership announcement soon.
And to think, the Mnuchin Dilution Solution hasn't even occurred. What will EPS be after all the capital raises? Fannie Mae will be lucky to do $0.10 EPS. LMAO.
She's going down! They might not even want to bother with the capital raises, I doubt investors will want this low EPS.
Preferreds taking off. Receivership back on the table? I wonder if the meetings in D.C. this week suggested Calabria as being the leading candidate for FHFA Director.
$0.01 EPS on $4B profit. Wow! I guess the market is valuing this worthless junk appropriately. Commons only need a $100B profit per year to justify their current price.
Can't wait for the Spin Crew to try to make this sound positive. Maybe Fannie bought back shares too? LOL!
Timber!! This ship is going to sink slower than the Titanic.
Ackman liquidation upcoming? $FNMA taking a toll on Pershing Square it seems.
"Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital which had been mounting a comeback year, put up awful number of -8.4 percent."
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/11/hedge-fund-return/
There's no denying that. Berko must see JOE as being more than a ~5x as that's roughly what GSE Preferreds offer from current prices.
Double $0 is still ZERO.
Commons have no claim on the $3B Capital that the GSEs each retain. That money will be first attributable to the Sr. Preferreds (assuming they don't deem them paid off), and then the Jr. Preferreds.
Only after both of these do the Commons have any claim on that $3B -- in other words, that $3B ain't yours, LOL
#CapitalStructure101
Agreed, GSEs will sell Preferred Shares to help with the Capital Raise. That only ends up hurting Earnings Per Share for the Commons.
This must have been why the price jumped today. Someone bought Bruce's shares!
FNMAS is still 13% of his fund, LOL! And this doesn't mention how large his FMCKJ holding is either. Sounds like conviction to me. However, it's also part of being a fund manager, you can't be too heavy in any one area or you have to start dealing with investor redemptions.
How big is Ackman's Common position again, like 1% of his fund? I wonder why he doesn't have more conviction in Commons.
Dilution from Capital Raises, Warrants, and Jr. Preferreds Converting to Commons is going to be a Triple Whammy! If Sr. Preferreds convert to Commons as well, then we're talking about the dreaded Quadruple Whammy.
Earnings Per Share is going to go Bye Bye Bye.
#PreferredsForAJP
Trump’s FHFA Appointee Expected to Curb GSE Footprint but Not Enough to Roil Housing
By John Bancroft
Close observers of the politics of housing finance generally expect the next director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency to steer Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac toward a smaller market presence without creating a huge disruption in the market.
But they acknowledge that they’re basically throwing darts blindfolded as there has been precious little guidance coming from the Trump administration. The administration can do a lot while the two government-sponsored enterprises remain in conservatorship: curb or eliminate certain programs, alter GSE pricing, lower loan limits and more.
But before any of that happens, the White House has to decide the “reform” path it wants to follow, said Jeb Mason, a partner at the Cypress Group, on a panel at the Residential Mortgage Finance Symposium sponsored by the Structured Finance Industry Group in New York this week.
Mason thinks the administration “will feel the need to put a firm stake in the ground” that reflects long-held Republican sentiment in favor of reducing the government’s role in the mortgage market. “This will cause some discomfort, but it’s necessary to advance reform,” Mason said. For full details, see the new edition of Inside Mortgage Finance.
Are you implying Receivership is going to occur? Otherwise, Commons can't get those pesky Preferreds out of the way.
Let's hope the Treasury doesn't convert their Sr. Preferreds for Commons
It was the best of time, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity... Incredulity -- The state of being unwilling or unable to believe something. [this sounds awfully familiar to our current Moelis predicament]
So much of this rings true in the GSE Preferreds versus Commons investment thesis/debate. Even though the classes of shares are similar, they are very much different in multiple aspects.
The question is, what City are you living in?
#DickensWasntAnAverageJoe
Courts are your reason for not owning Preferreds? That's odd considering Discovery from Berkowitz's court case has brought forth pertinent information which can help frame a picture of theft and dishonesty, which would help both Commons and Jr. Preferreds.
Can you elaborate on your FHFA Dual-Director claims from a few weeks back? It really had the board talking, but then you stopped posting.
Lemmings are starting to realize what Utility Model will do to EPS
Even if everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, goes their way Commons will still have a Capped Share Price due to the implementation of regulated returns.
Some of them are starting to understand this, hence the Rotation into Preferreds we are currently witnessing.
Over the cliff they go!
#AverageJoesForMoelis
How many Common shares did they buy back?
But Shareholders only own 20.01% of the company. And if Sr. Preferreds Convert, they own even less.
Not to mention, the Treasury is taking it all anyway.
#SellSellSell ... Not a Recco
Ackman Rotating more into Preferreds? Looks that way considering the large volume selloff we witnessed today.
Tomorrow might give us an answer.