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Just keep in mind that the POR was authored by K&E who's mantra has been there is no equity to recover and it has been that way for a long time...this could be biased a lot in that direction by the underying reason for bankruptcy process in general...that is rationalizing debt/liabilities and satisfying creditors/resolving claims. The greed and avarice of the creditors has always been patently obvious by the very audacity they have exhibited in it, and they have done everything they can to wipe out equity and failed. They failed and K&E was wrong in the 11th hour in their contention that there is no equity. They failed in pushing the POR through before additional facts could come out too.
Given that history and track record, and the economic trends underlying the businesses with these events and outcomes, I consider it to be good bet that they will be proven wrong again, and strongly in our favor by the time all is said and done. I am also glad we have an intelligent and compassionate judge who has not let his ego overwhelm his IQ, which speaks volumes about his good personal character and true passion for justice. We have a great team on the EC. As far as I am concerned, we have all the ingredients in the pot for a great feast ...if the time and temperature stay right to properly cook the recipe,and the odds of that seem to be pretty good to me.
Guys, it is a time when a lot of people take a summer vacation, there really hasn't been any new information out and probably won't be for a while, and we all just need to try to quell our urges to speculate about everything from what someone else thinks, may have done, or the quality of thier character. This isn't factual information and really only serves to fuel paranoia and bad decision making.
Please understand I acknowledge I am guilty of these urges too...but rationally we should consider that people don't always get to say or do exactly what they want to. There are those people who do a lot of good by providing great information etc..that just prefer to not post a lot of empty drivel or use this venue as an emotional vent. Really, I shouldn't even care whether someone sold or not, or what their current ownership position is-only about the facts I have, sources for new verifiable information and what my convictions about owning the stock should be. I am still very long and have really seen nothing tangible to indicate why I should do otherwise..according to my own point of view which I, like everyone else has.
Everyone has different personal situations and styles that should be respected. Let's be tolerant of one another, careful and considerate of what we say about others, and even give the benefit to CEMQ managment until we have some real facts to go on. Judging anyone's motives is always a difficult thing to do. Let's don't let this board degenerate to that.
Thanks Wall, want you to know I appreciate the information you provide and the work you and everyone else has done on the EC. This isn't an instant process. By that time some good information should be out to help this along with regard to a quarterly report and possibly some hearings outcomes on environmental claims. We've been through similar swings and uncertainty before, and as we did then we stand to benefit if our minds with the information we can verify, rule or decisions actions and emotions more than our emotions.
This is absolutely how I feel about this as well.
A couple of key peices of information would be nice and helpful in the equity discussions. 2Q quarterly report for 2010, and outcome on some environmental claims....both forthcoming in July if memory serves me correctly. It may be the POR failed to fully consider this and it will provide impetus to enter a meaningful, less-adversarial discussion of equity.
"It's only business"...Al Capone, Feb 14 1929
may mean everybody that's dumb enough to sell at these prices already has, and the buyers are going to have to up the ante if that want any shares.
this says lead plaintiff has decided to accept previous offer as settlement, and that is paid by officers and directors insurance...
Or like the Trojans, they sometimes fail under pressure, or so my USC buds are always telling me.
Breaking News on the OIL LEAK!!!!
They got this new device, looks like a WEDDING RING, and clamps on below the flex joint of the stack. Word is, when they put it on the well, she stops putting out! STay Tuned!
That is sooo very right!
nobody's selling, just like what happened when the December stampede of 401K and related bad rumor selling ended.
Yep, I wonder if they ever thought they could get sued for that? Their advice was wrong and people who followed it lost a lot of money, selling at prices less than the stock is today.
No, but I've read posts from EC insiders that say, when you strip the company lipstick off of that pig, it's really more like 2%=$0.26...effectively 98% dilution. The capital markets immediately said that was WAAAY off.
I may remind you of that statement in a few days or weeks, and then ask you what you have done or propose to do about the problems that haven't disappeared by then. If you are so down on chemtura potential, then put your money and time where you think it matters or where you think you can make a positive difference or contribution. When you hang around here just knocking down the imagination of others, it makes me wonder why you are here and what your agenda really is. Mas Salaama, Bro.
Judge Gerber took them to task about that a bit, but in the end they got a pretty generous plan. Biscuit wheels have been known to fall off of a gravy train that is running on some shaky tracks. I think it would be a real hoot to watch the resoponse if the EC came to the table with a surprise buyer for some assets, or better yet...the whole company. It's hard to have much of a poison pill coming out of bankruptcy, and so this stock is really ripe for them.
It would be so easy for a suitor to do it too right now after all the valuation work and fancy K&E lawyerin' an all with so much info now a matter of public record, and an investment banker already up to speed.... Relatively speaking, that like shoot'in doves sittin under a tree by the pond between sundown and dark-kinda dead easy IMHO.
Good comment, we need to get past our emotional reaction to the POR, digest it, look at the upside and downside and objectively consider other points of view, just as we want ours to be considered. Almost everyone can add numbers, it is understanding and validating the numbers that are the challenge and we are all capable of making mistakes.
The board is most worthwhile only when we have an informed discussion and we all need to not let it become personal, even when we have a lot at atake in the outcome. It is when we become too subjective that we are most at risk of making bad decisions. It is not to anyone's advantage to make this board anythingother than a forum for objective, informed discussion and idea exchange.
I for one have little time, especially lately to do the research and analysis I need to, so I really appreciate those who do and lay it out for discussion on this board. There have been a lot of great people on this board, and I hope they will ocntinue to post.
Thanks for posting, MC's analysis and perspective is always a great read.
why should I care?
The guys on the EC are smart guys, the law firm representing the EC is recognized as one of the best in restructuring, and UBS is an investment bank. It is most unusual to have something like that together all in one place-tremendous capabilities and knowledge on our side in opposition to the debtors and bondholders plan.
Investment banks don't just loan money, they BROKER DEALS FOLKS! I am sure all this brainpower on the side of the EC knows that isn't going to work for a bankrupt company to exit bankruptcy with more debt than it entered bankruptcy with. UBS has some overhead to cover, and I doubt they are here just for the social experience and networking opportunities.
When the CEMJQ stock price ascended most quickly, there was a lot of talk about dispositions. Now there is a lot of buzz and A/D activity specifically in this sector and with this company in particular. The possibilities and their magnitude are pretty expansive, so consider that....
The only disposition that really materialized was the sale of some PVC assets and shedding some liabilities. After that, the other deals-those with codewords like cloud, etc...just vaporized. The economic impetus for those didn't disappear, but it was the will to do them that apparently did. Maybe it just got real cozy for the debtors in their dealings with the creditors ...who knows what really happened there but it really does not matter.
Those guys are not the only ones who know how the world turns and contrary to what we see in our government where we have the few and proud debating whether to fire or retrain all those cattleguards in Colorado, it just does not work that way in the business world of a free market system. Small groups of small minds do not make and enforce all the rules.
They need remember that there really never is a free ride in life and that they need to do the right thing and manage their business properly or SOMEONE WILL DO IT FOR THEM.
It would not be the first time somebody got obsessed with feeding out a fat hog only to have it slaughtered in front of their eyes and chopped up and parted out right before their eyes.
I know what I own, my hands are strong enough to hold it until I get full value for it. Let the games begin, we are about to be witnesses and participants in what will be some interesting history.
It is much better to have a plan with some optional details witheld, expose it a little at a time like peeling an onion and watch the reaction as each layer is exposed. If you lay all the cards on the table too soon it gives more time to the opponent to strategize IMHO.
The real masters at negotiating teach that the "first one to drop an anchor in a negotiation is usually the loser".
Yep, there will probably be many more times their derriers will hit the dirt.
Giving the benefit of the doubt, maybe this is just doing what was necessary to get a POR into the light of day (past the creditors), and fully expecting that the EC would rise to the occasion.
It's just a new level of comepetition between creditors who supposedly accepted a lower rate of return for more senior, lower risk debt and equity owners who staked the company and took all the risk expecting a higher return.
Bond holders really have no right to expect more than the rate of the offering unless they have gone past the maturity date and then that is limited too. Anything more is brought about by simple but stupid greed, and so now it's time to moderate that with a little fear. To allow this POR to stand would be to allow outright piracy of the ownership and control of the company, and does not seem to be to be a just outcome for a chapter 11 case with positive stockholder equity. The case for positive equity has always been obvious, and to deny it has always been folly just as this POR is.
Formula's are easier than putting the correct numbers in them. Rubber numbers based on things like tort liability can create whatever story you want. "Figures can lie and liars can figure" to quote an old boss I had once.
Should we all write letters to the judge and trustee about this, as we did to get an EC to begin with?
And I am sure the EC will be there with their boots and gun leathers on with plenty of legalese ammo too. I'd much rather be behind 'em than facing 'em.
Hey, I would really like to have Mad Clown's take on this because of his really deep knowledge of the financial markets and the banking business. As far as I am concerned, CEMJQ had gotten some raw deals in some of the past financing agreements they had before BK, many of the creditors "assumed" the equity would roll for them while they raped and pillaged in userous glee. Remember these guys are the ones who fought the EC tooth and nail and who called the company "totally insolvent" and made all those ridiculous remarks trying to wipe out equity from the beginning. They were pretty cocky and confident about it too, and that is probably why the bonds brought a premium.
The way I see it, they just hit a really big and hard speed bump recklessly at high-speed and now they knocked a hole the oil-pan on their hot rod plan to pursue what they thought was easy money by stealing the value of our equity. Now they are going to get to race with us equity holders who have a really fast sleek foreign import supercar that is faster and more nimble than theirs was on its best day. If I were them, I'd dump some bonds quick and build the stock position I had as quickly as possible if I could.
Now, it may just turn out to be no contest between what the EC has proposed and everything else. I imagine those bonds will be back at par value pretty soon, now and our stock is going up, maybe way up. I am in this thing for seven figures too, and what just happened is going to have the same effect as greenmail has on a grossly under-valued company...I strongly beleive and hope I am right, and have gambled huge that I am. Time will tell, and it is going to be an interesting ride. I know what I own, always have, and like WS and CEMM and many others, have no intention of letting anyone cheat me out of that value.
It was an excellent post!
When the institutional shorts have covered, and margin call liquidations by institutions are replaced, we rise. Don't know if that is tomorrow, but it is soon.
tacit acknowledgement of stockholder equity is what it is.
Totally agree. Thanks MC, your commentary is always wanted here.
The environmental claims are inflated, and there is no better time to resolve the facts on that than now in BK, if they can do that, even if it takes a little time beyond June 17, the value of this stock should rock.
Your knowledge of the credit markets is really valuable and crucial. Excellent explanation of what is going on in the marketplace and with Chemtura at present. Many many thanks. I see this the same as I did when it fell in December. I didn't sell then, and was glad of it. I just wish I had more cash to buy additional CEMJQ right now.
Chemtura's doing long-term deals for services, pre-POR. That bodes well for us longs, I think.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chemtura-signs-new-three-year-contract-with-odyssey-logistics-technology-2010-06-02?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Great stuff from one of the most knowledgable guys around.
Thanks NovaChem!
They didn't get my shares in November, and they won't get them now. I know what I own.
Unless forced by personal emergency, we should respect and honor our EC reps by not not selling our shares. They are working for all our interests and can't sell, and in my opinion it is really unwise to sell at these levels anyway. I am past where I could take my LT gains and have not sold and do not plan to sell until we have seen the fruit of the EC's labors and they are on the same footing as we are.
I predict that by that time, this will be one hot tamale of a stock that everybody wants to buy instead of sell anyway. Times like this when price movement has injected some uncertainty and fear in the marketplace are precisely the time to buy instead of the selling that has happened. The time to sell is when there is euphoria with a lot of new MoMo volume, and while we are far from that point at present-that time is coming.
no price movement on that trade. Is it a short?
But, her article for Psycology Today was written with such Authority and Credibility!
Yup, this will go way past $5 in time because the company is so well positioned in the markets it serves, and don't forget all the foreign assets that keep going up relative to our devaluing dollar. The people that sold in panic this week will regret they disposed of those shares so cheaply.
Notice all the litte fish that came first and made it easy for the whale! This is an awesome video.
click here to see how the big dogs eat!
"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffet
Well, it sounds to me it was kinda like they brought a knife to that little get-together at the OK corral, but when they made the grand entrance and got shot at, they suddenly realized they really needed a gun like everybody else had. After rushing back home to get one, they have again arrived, only to realize they also needed the proper ammunition.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch....