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It is more likely someone caught wind of the financing deal that was announced a day or two later.
Guess we overshot REGN's model of 108 million.
He's about to make us a large sum of money by securing financing. We're currently undervalued by 5-10x due to lack of cash and an unclear path. Any kind of major capital raise will set us back on course. I'm all for gains in share price. Go Leo! Get that funding!
Nah, no RS.
No, we haven't seen the upfront money yet. Reserving judgement until then.
Increasing the share ceiling does not necessarily mean a very large raise is coming. It is preparation for the exercise of the employee stock options and possibly is required to make progress on one or more advanced negotiations.
For example, if there is a potential pharma partner out there who wants to make an equity investment of $100M dollars at $1.00/share as part of a development deal, Leo would need 100M shares of headroom. He obviously can't move forward on a deal like that if he only has 70-80M shares of headroom approved.
Obviously that type of deal would technically entail some "dilution", but I don't consider it bad if it brings us from $0.18 to $1.00 and beyond.
I think some have to understand the CTIX we once loved and dreamed of is gone. That train went off the tracks in a blaze of glory and failure. Re-frame your expectations and embrace IPIX for the 10x or 20x investment it is from here. You can make a lot of money from these prices. Beyond that, hope for a gigantic Kevetrin deal.
Where did the optimism go? If we we're headed to $15 by end of summer as you said earlier this week, even if they double the outstanding shares we're still heading to $7.50/share.
I'll personally be very excited to have $0.75 by the end of the summer. 4x your money in two months is nice.
No need to worry. It will make us much more likely to hit $1.50 which is a great return for people buying in the past two years. I'm not worried if it lowers the double-digit chances.
Reframe and be happy with a 10-bagger.
Also, your vote doeant really count. Leo could just exercise some options for class B shares and get another 50 million votes for $100K.
Buckle up and get ready to zoom to $1 pnce our cash position is shored up.
Very interesting (to me).
https://www.strictlybusinesslawblog.com/2012/11/02/stock-options-versus-stock-warrants-whats-the-difference/
Seems it is based on whether it is a compensatory instrument. Employee options are while warrants are not. The shares are printed in either case with differing tax treatment.
Always good to learn something new. Thanks LR.
And you're right. I doubt we'll hear about the ultimate fate of KM's stake in the company.
Good question. I'm not sure of the exact expiration date on all of them. Also if KM is no longer with the company and is not a 5% holder do they still report on him? I would think we'd at least see something saying he sold some shares or exercised the warrants.
(other than they're options, not warrants).
There are approximately 36 million warrants held by the officers that expire in 2020. Once those are exercised it won't leave much headroom. I think a big part of this is a future suitor, perhaps one or more in our multiple current advanced negotiations, may be interested in taking an equity stake in IPIX as part of a partnership deal. That might require us to raise the cap as well.
I'd love to get diluted by selling shares at $1 or $2 to another company interested in developing our pipeline. Is it really dilution if it triples your money?
The percentages are not really important. You would need to narrow your search to safe, anti-inflammatory drugs suspended in water/foam/gel, that have insignificant systemic absorption and also demonstrate enormous and undeniable efficacy. B-UP is extremely likely to succeed. I expect a combined phase 2b/3 as we already have an array of safe dosages that work well.
The only problem with B-UP alone is that its estimated market is $100M/year and we only get 6% of net sales on that. The trial and drug will succeed but we traded almost all of it for a small stack of cash, some validation, and the hope that bigger fish will bite on the bigger indications at more favorable terms.
Its essentially an antiinflammatory mouth rinse for the back end. It works and isnt absorbed. There's not much else to say about it.
More importantly it helps validate B-OM for the front end and middle.
B is not a biologic. Its a safe, non-absorbed anti-inflammatory. It will pass the trials.
The $0.10s from march got flipped for over 200% a few months later. Buying the dip works great if you actually buy the dip and sell the rally. You get to do that 3 or 4 times a year with this stock. Resulting gains are tremendous. IPIX is a swing paradise, particularly with the announcements to come.
What? That's a pretty aggressive schedule.
6 months to get phase 3 enrollment.
1 year to finish successful trial
1 year for NDA submission and approval.
3-6 months to spin up marketing/distribution for sale.
Can't go much faster from phase 2 to sales than that without BTD.
Go IPIX!
Shouldn't be long. Without a formulation change I expect AS will be able to get the trial enrolling by Q1 2020. Might only take 12 months to finish.
B-UP is a shoe-in for phase 3 success and approval. Could be on the market sometime in 2022.
I'm ready! Just need a few thousand more beliebers to get this thing off the ground. Or one really rich one!
Go IPIX!
It wont be speculation that drives us to $15 before year end. That will take another large partnership agreement. Without an additional deal I am very confident predicting we won't reach $1.50 by year end, let alone $15.
False. Kevetrin will likely be the most lucrative partnership deal we ever sign.
Exactly. We could have a $100M upfront deal dropped right in our laps at any time with Kevetrin.
I consider the whole B platform as a stepping stone to advance K and net one of those multibillion deals for it after a phase 2b with oral.
Because we thought B-ABSSSI was going to be partnered and be a slam dunk for phase 3 the following year. Lot's of comparisons to the $1B/year Cubicin (Dapto) had us thinking it would result in a lucrative partnership.
Also, right about that same time Kevetrin cured stage 4 cancer:
www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2016/11/16/cellceutix-reports-spleen-lesion-disappears-in-patient-with-metastatic-stage-4-ovarian-cancer-in-clinical-trial-of-anti-cancer-drug-kevetrin
So...we had a much stronger cash position and a better pipeline at the time. We were on a winning streak at the start of 2015, much exuberance, much credit to the future, etc. That needs to be rebuilt after the 2017/2018 string of defeats (Prurisol failure and the handling of it, the horrendous financing agreements, missed milestones, etc.)
Still awaiting a straight forward answer as to why we have been unwilling to partner B-ABSSSI. I know that is the reason I invested here in the first place. We have deduced that either we want to run the phase 3 ourselves because it is a certain victory, or it's because it will be held in reserve for the life of the patent and will generate no substantial revenue, or because we're waiting for real government incentives, etc.
This deal was a start, but without knowing the upfront payment it's not enough. Looking forward to additional deals with enough cash to really begin advancing the pipeline across the board. I think once the team delivers another partnership with better terms the market will afford us more credit for future potential.
AS was a good start Leo! Bring in some bigger fish now! REGN model it up.
Right. But there would need to be a reason to believe such a $3 billion market cap would be justified.
Assume the market suddenly decides this year that B-UP will succeed and sell $300M/year (very very bullish sales case).
$300M/year * 6% = $18M/year in royalties.
Add a 5 year multiple to these and our royalties on B-UP are worth $90M. Add the $24M in milestones and that brings you to $114M B-UP total projected revenue. We won't see more than $6M of that for at least 3 years though.
Let's call the upfront payment $30M.
Cash: $30M
B-ABSSSI: ?
How much is this worth? The phase 3 is pretty much a guaranteed success based on the phase 2b results. $30M to run it or so. We have completely derisked this one.
B-OM: ?
Hard to value. The drug is effective and safe. It has the superior delivery method among all potential competitors.
Kevetrin: ?
B-UC: ?
B-IBD: ?
B-UP: $114M
Just curious how you get the values to add up to $3B in the next two months. Speculation could bring us to $300M if there is evidence that the upfront payment was $30M. $3B though?
It will be in this quarter. It will be accounted for in the 10Q that will drop in November.
$15? Hot diggity! What kind of deal do you expect to get our market cap above $3 billion?
That's because they were unable to articulate that a substantial initial cash payment is part of the deal. They tried to reiterate that point more strongly with this morning's PR. It helped ease the minds of some of us closely watching the stock bit without some hard numbers the market is waiting for the details.
Those waiting may miss out on a second larger deal while holding out for the 10 Q.
Last time we had "advanced discussions" a non-binding term sheet was set up within a couple months and a deal was inked a couple months after that. Would love to see a B-OM and Kevetrin deal this year.
We have other trials that showed variety of signals with a variety of promise. B-UP showed more than a signal. It showed a safe and notable improvement in a vast majority of 15 subjects well beyond what can be explained by placebo.
What would lead you to believe B-UP will fail any trial? It is completely safe and demonstrated enormous efficacy is the last trial. The only problem with B-UP is that its not a billion/year market.
He pulled the trigger after he got what he wanted and that included a hefty upfront payment.
The problem in my opinion is that this deal doesn't really validate Brilacidin unless the upfront payment has some weight.
1) $1M upfront payment
$1M upfront + $1M start phase 3 + $1M NDA filing
-AS pays us $3M to get to an NDA filing.
-AS pays the trial cost in exchange for 90%+ profits on a phase 3 drug.
-IPIX was willing to sell a phase 3 ready indication for $1M and $6M in regulatory milestones and a 6% royalty.
This doesn't improve our cash condition, bargaining power in other deals, AS puts basically no skin in the game other than the trial cost, etc. This deal would be so bad our stock price would go down. If that November 10Q shows ~$1M I anticipate the stock will drop below $0.10 absent another deal before then. It would also require another bridge financing deal likely at worse terms than we have now.
Do we even recoup our B-UP trial costs with this kind of payment structure prior to royalties? I can't believe that IPIX would do a deal like this and give away 90%+ of a phase 3 ready drug at a loss. It just makes no sense unless it was this or close up shop.
2) $10M-$15M upfront payment
Now AS is at least paying something to get in the game. This greatly improves our cash position and bargaining power as this cash combined with some stock sales would allow us to head into a B-OM phase 3 or Kevetrin Oral Phase 2 on our own. We need there to be some credible belief that we could go it alone on these otherwise we're going to sell more indications for pennies on the dollar.
We are dealing with a phase 3 asset projected to earn $100M/year. If I said we were getting $15M + $6M in regulatory milestones + 6% royalty with up to $18M in sales milestones I would have been laughed off the board by everyone except Scott.
It's not a stretch at all to expect that we received $10M, $15M, or even $20M upfront for this asset given the anemic milestones and royalty. Even if it only makes $40M/year (What is that? A few thousand patients a year?), AS would recoup their costs including the trial within two years and make $400M in profit over the next 10.
As you say, time will tell. I'm optimistic that we have a hefty upfront and this deal wasn't the disaster that the market believes it is.
The upfront payment the the most important part of the first deal overall in my opinion. The first deal has to resolve our cash problem in order for me to consider it a success.
The most important part of the first deal has yet to be unveiled. We don't know what the upfront payment is yet. If it is substantial the price will fly high.
He can't provide any evidence for his claims in the post. The burden is on the accuser to provide proof for his claims. When proof is not provided after being requested then the fabrication is plain as day for all to see.
The smears and defamation of the officers of IPIX irritate me as well. All we can do is rebut them when they make claims without evidence.
It needs repeating, since this was brought up again, that this post contains significant falsehoods. Anyone reading this post should do their DD and be wary of the accuracy or lack thereof in this post.
That remains to be seen. We will know what the upfront payment was in November with the filing of the 10 Q if not before. If the market gets any confirmation of a cash infusion, either through an announcement, a trial start, or another partnership, the stock will fly high.
And so we do what IPIXers do best. Wait and hope. Definitely not a young man's game.
The upfront payment details have not been disclosed. If the upfront is minimal then it was a bad deal. If the upfront ends up being $10M+ it was a great deal and the stock will fly.
The market can only price in what has been revealed. And so we wait.
Don't get sucked into the conspiracy theory. He didnt pay his son for the Baystreet article.
The PR firm (viper) which is headed by a guy who is also associated with the same company (TBE) as the son paid Bay Street for the article.
There is nothing fishy at all. IPIX is using a PR company and the PR company is doing its job by promoting the deal announcement. The PR company happens to be headed by a business assocoate of one of Leo's sons.
Unlike some have claimed, there is no evidence that Leo's son has profited off any of this. Just more sad, baseless smears.
Hazelhurst provided an example of Merck. Doing a deal and not disclosing the upfront in 2011. Its rare but apparently does happen. Makes me feel better about it.
You will see the income booked in the 10 Q in early November if we don't find out before then.
Thanks hazel. Good to see another example of this. Here's to a double-digit million upfront!
Why not announce the amount though? I have never seen this before in all my years of investing.