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Great idea to start this board F/A.
My preference as a Silver investor still remains to buy the real thing => that being PURE SILVER BARS or COINS.
The opportunity for FPPL is to explore, develop, and eventually provide energy supplies located in a safe geographic location not prone to hurricanes/floods, as well as, operate in a safe poltical environment (IE: the USA vs. locations like Nigeria, Venezaula, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan).
Also, I don't think many people realize it yet... but ALL those approx. 4,500 oil/gas platforms in the Gulf off Mexico ARE AT RISK... as CAT 5 Hurricanes are extremely destructive, as they each pack the same power as approx. 10,000 nuclear bombs, also, underwater rig/pipeline repairs are very expensive and time consuming... then, and on top of that, the floods that hurricanes bring shut down or damage the on-shore energy & transportation infrastructure.
There are approx. 4,500 oil/gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico...
The above image shows the path's of Katrina and Rita (doesn't that image of the Gulf of Mexico look like a big Bowling Alley, with the oil rigs as bowling pins).
And here's the path of Hurrucane Ivan in 2004...
http://www.progresoweekly.com/images/mapa.jpg (notice how it's in the same bowling alley - just slightly more east).
The 2006 Hurricane forecast calls for:
17 named tropical storms; an average season has 9.6.
9 hurricanes compared to the average of 5.9.
5 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph; average is 2.3.
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/051206_hurricane_forecast_2006.html
The only road in and out of Port Fourchon, Louisiana, the main U.S. staging point for deepwater oil and natural gas production, sits just two to three feet above the marshland.
Last summer, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita largely spared the road, Louisiana Highway 1, because neither struck Fourchon directly. The port's director, Ted Falgout, acknowledges that the area may not be as lucky this hurricane season, which begins June 1....
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=31348
HONG KONG, April 27 (Reuters) -
China's imports of Silver rose 244 percent on the year to 226,780 kg in the third month this year....
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060427/3/2jpvp.html
US energy giant ExxonMobil evacuates non-essential staff from Nigeria's largest oil export terminal...
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=151...
Exxon boosts security around Nigeria oil terminal...
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/4/26/worldupdates/2006-04-25T234106Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJON...
The US wants to start with sanctions first... and Iran has already countered by saying they will retaliate by using higher energy prices as a weapon.
27.04.2006 - Iran Shuns UN on Eve of Nuclear Deadline...
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,1982957,00.html
US domestic energy supplies sure would be better than having to rely upon unstable regimes, IMO.
Apr 27, 2006 (AP) — Lawmakers Scramble to Ease Gas-Price Pain ...
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1897693
I think a good way to help fix the current energy problem, would be the development of more domestic energy supplies.
Apr 27, 2006 - SEC approves Barclays Silver ETF, launch expected Friday on Amex...
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={C6B59B17-1F...
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Your math is way off.... market cap. is only $80 million ... not $800 million.
Oh ya... and the Hurricanes don't even have to do any destruction to oil equipment in the Gulf of Mexico to run-up the price of energy...
just by having a minimum measley CAT 3 come into the Gulf of Mexico will force oil/gas platforms in the direct path to shutdown temporarily.
Botton line is; oil/gas supply/capacity is already constrained by approx. 25% due to last years remaining damage... ANY SHUT-DOWNS FROM CAT 3, CAT 4's, or CAT 5's WILL MAGNIFY THE CONSTRAINTS... AND AMPLIFY THE NEED FOR ENERGY SOURCES LOCATED IN SAFER GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS.
If you live within a few miles of the coastline somewhere along the Gulf Coast... you'd probably be best served by moving inland for at least the next few years, minimum.
Investing is partially about spotting trends before they become obvious to everyone.
The National Hurricane Center is precidting a approx. 5 intense Hurricanes this season... accompanied by approx. over 20 low-level storms.........
So, if later this year we get even just 1 measley CAT 3 Hurricane that comes into the Gulf of Mexico and shuts down oil production for a couple weeks... given that oil/gas supplies are already/currently low and vulnerable... THE PUBLIC/MEDIA SPOTLIGHT will be focused upon the energy industry, energy independence, and vulnerability of Gulf Coast energy supplies, etc...
Under the above scenario... I think we could easily see 5 or 10 cents p/s... with the possibility of an even bigger spike.
Silver ETF making its way through the SEC system... formal trading in the Silver ETF immenent (in the not to distant future)...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1330568/000119312506086869/d8a12b.htm
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1330568/000119312506086865/ds1a.htm
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19145
Launch of Silver ETF now considered imminent;
...with yesterday’s public statement by the SEC, it now appears the announcement of a launch date is imminent.
According to a regulatory filing yesterday, Barclays has deposited 1.5 million ounces of silver with JPMorgan Chase Bank in London to back 150,000 shares of its ETF with each representing 10 ounces of silver...
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19145
Funny thing is... when I purchased FMNJ shares, I bought solely on the possibility of just the Cerro Rico Silver deal...
but, IMO, the potential of Oil/Gas deals with Bolivia's Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPFB) is HUGE, VERY HUGE...
YPFB (Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos) is a state-owned company, and is charged with overseeing the exploration, drilling, production, refining, transportation and distribution of both crude oil and natural gas in Bolivia.
FinancialAdvisor... it looks like you might need to add a Oil and Gas quote/ticker to the board pretty soon...
US Dollar making a nice Head and Shoulders pattern....
So... it looks like we could have a weakening dollar this summer/fall/winter on top of high oil/gas prices, and possibly even a very strong hurricane season...
a perfect storm seems to be brewing for the Precious Metals market.
Silver conducts heat and electricity better than any other metal...
Silver is also widely used in the circuitry of electrical and electronic components...
http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761579307/Silver.html
The Silver market is a very, very small market... in fact, its so small that the total combined market cap. of all Silver companies is under $10 Billion...
http://www.robtv.com/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.20060308.00037000-00037598-clip2/h/220...
And just for comparison sake (or to put it in perspective); just IBM alone has market cap. of $126 Billion... which is about 14x bigger than the market cap. of all the Silver companies combined...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IBM
If you guys do your research on the Precious Metals market....
you'll see when Gold has traded solidly above $600, Silver trades well above $20 per oz. ...
The Gold-to-Silver ratio is currently in the process of coming closer to its historical norm... and as Gold moves higher, Silver will adjust accordingly (probably stronger due to price leverage).
The show in Precious Metals is only just getting started folks...
Adjusted for inflation... Gold should currently be valued at approx. $2,000 per oz.
Any word on the work/progress to move off Pink Sheets to the OTC BB?.
Updated: market cap's for Silver companies;
CDE - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp = $1.84 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=cde
ECU - ECU Silver = $540 MILLION
http://www.tsx.com/HttpController?GetPage=QuotesViewPage&DetailedView=DetailedPrices&Languag...
FMNJ - Franklin Mining = $22 MILLION
HL - Hecla Mining Co = $828 MILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=hl
PAAS - Pan American Silver Corp. = $1.79 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=paas
SIL - Apex Silver Mines Ltd. = $1.32 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=sil
SLW - Silver Wheaton Corp. = $2.16 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=slw
SSRI - Silver Standard Resources Inc. = $1.18 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ssri
WTZ - Western Silver Corp. = $1.34 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=wtz
With the Silver price strong.... I bet that COMIBOL would like to get some increased efficencies happening in Cerro Rico, sooner rather than later....
which bodes well for a strong desire to conclude the J.V. ... so they can get down to business.
Interesting interview... this Analyst thinks there's so much of a shortage in physical Silver, that there's not even enough physical Silver for Barclay's to launch the Silver ETF...
http://www.robtv.com/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.20060417.00038000-00038720-clip1/h/220...
F/A ..... I don't know.... that's why I'm asking for an expert opinion..... I know alot more about the fundamentals in Precious Metals than the stock/brokerage end of things... I never took the Stock/Securities Brokerage course that alot of Brokers recommend taking to learn the back-end of the stock market.
My guess is... with all the buying of FMNJ stock over the past approx. 4 weeks.... and little selling... the Market-Makers can't have a very big inventory of FMNJ stock, IMO.
Question for the true Stock/Brokerage experts;
Is it possibly to get an accurate up-to-date picture/estimate of the approx. total inventory of FMNJ shares currently held by the Market-Makers?
I don't think we are far away from seeing a repeat of the early 1980's........
http://12.42.70.96/GoldOverlayChart.asp
However, this time the Precious Metals run will likely run much longer becuase, if you study the market, yearly demand for Precious Metals is running much higher than new yearly mine supply.... inflation, debt, deficit, geo-poltics are all just adding fuel to the fire.... 4 digit Gold by 2008.... won't be suprised if it gets there much sooner.
My original Silver forecast for Silver was $15 - $20 p/oz by the end of this year.......
however, after checking the historical Silver data.... and when Gold was over $600 p/oz in the 1980's, Silver was trading mostly between the $25 - $45 p/oz range.......
Given the historical data, I wont be suprised if Silver reaches $20 p/oz way before the end of this year... maybe within the next 1 - 3 months.
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Silver reserve estimations for Cerro Rico....
Conservative estimates for Cerro Rico's current Silver reserve run around 250 million oz. ... while some estimate the Silver reserve to be as has high as 2 billion oz. ... the truth is nobody really knows accurately what the current Silver reserve of Cerro Rico actually is, becuase, the mine has never been subjected to an extensive modern exploration drilling program... however, according to NERC, Cerro Rico is estimated to still hold approx. 5 times more Silver than any comparable Bolivian depsoit...
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/publications/documents/pe-wint04/cerrorico.pdf
SILVER RESERVE ESTIMATE VALUES FOR CERRO RICO AT $13.00 SILVER... (does not include any value for the TIN reserves);
* 250 million oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $3,250,000,000.00
* 500 million oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $6,500,000,000.00
* 750 million oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $9,750,000,000.00
* 1 billion oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $13,000,000,000.00
* 1.25 billion oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $16,250,000,000.00
* 1.5 billion oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $19,500,000,000.00
* 1.75 billion oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $22,750,000,000.00
* 2 billion oz. Silver at $13.00 p/oz = $26,000,000,000.00
SILVER RESERVE ESTIMATE VALUES FOR CERRO RICO AT $25.00 SILVER... (does not include any value for the TIN reserves);
* 250 million oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $6,250,000,000.00
* 500 million oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $12,500,000,000.00
* 750 million oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $18,750,000,000.00
* 1 billion oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $25,000,000,000.00
* 1.25 billion oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $31,250,000,000.00
* 1.5 billion oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $37,500,000,000.00
* 1.75 billion oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $43,750,000,000.00
* 2 billion oz. Silver at $25.00 p/oz = $50,000,000,000.00
SILVER RESERVE ESTIMATE VALUES FOR CERRO RICO AT $50.00 SILVER... (does not include any value for the TIN reserves);
* 250 million oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $12,500,000,000.00
* 500 million oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $25,000,000,000.00
* 750 million oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $37,500,000,000.00
* 1 billion oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $50,000,000,000.00
* 1.25 billion oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $62,500,000,000.00
* 1.5 billion oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $75,000,000,000.00
* 1.75 billion oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $87,500,000,000.00
* 2 billion oz. Silver at $50.00 p/oz = $100,000,000,000.00
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Cerro Rico is estimated to still hold almost 5 times more Silver than any comparable Bolivian depsoit...
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/publications/documents/pe-wint04/cerrorico.pdf
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Cerro Rico's Silver production has never been matched.......
When one compares Cerro Rico to other BPV deposits, three features stand out as being exceptional:
* The phenomenal silver resource. Cerro Rico has produced almost five times more silver than any other BPV deposit.
* Development of a thick acid-sulfate lithocap. The acid-sulfate lithocap at Cerro Rico is at least twice as thick as any other described from a BPV deposit.
* Development and preservation of a particularly deep zone of oxidation. This is almost four times as thick as any other developed at a BPV deposit.
http://www.gla.ac.uk/surrc/staff/boycea.html
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Oil just a couple ticks from going over $70.00.... and the oil chart is currently in a 1 yr. rising wedge (rising wedges usually break to the upside).... and I think a strong Hurricane season this year will take us somewhere between $80 - $100 oil this year.
In the short term, $70 oil will probably push Gold solidly over $600 ..... and solid $600-plus Gold will probably push Silver to between $15 - $20 p/oz minimum.
My original Silver forecast for Silver was $15 - $20 p/oz by the end of this year.......
however, I was just checking the historical Silver data.... and when Gold was over $600 p/oz in the 1980's, Silver was trading mostly between the $25 - $45 p/oz range.......
Given the historical data, I wont be suprised if Silver reaches $20 p/oz way before the end of this year... maybe within the next 1 - 3 months.
=====================================================
Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
F/A....... my comparsion is only showing the comparative market cap. of FMNJ, which averages less than 2% of those other companies.
For those that think 4 viens in Cerro Rico doesn't mean much.... you are wrong.
COMIBOL isn't going to give the entire mine to FMNJ/Jamie as a start (that would be stupid).... no, COMIBOL are only going to give FMNJ/Jamie a small section as a initial test... and if FMNJ/Jamie can prove their good intentions/abilities, my bet is, more viens will then be forthcoming in a series of progressive steps... which is great, becuase it allows for an ever increasing ramp-up in positive news going forward for quite some time, as things progress positively.
=====================================================
Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html
Market cap's for Silver companies;
CDE - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp = $1.67 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=cde
ECU - ECU Silver = $468 MILLION
http://www.tsx.com/HttpController?GetPage=QuotesViewPage&DetailedView=DetailedPrices&Languag...
FMNJ - Franklin Mining = $23.8 MILLION
HL - Hecla Mining Co = $786 MILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=hl
PAAS - Pan American Silver Corp. = $1.66 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=paas
SLW - Silver Wheaton Corp. = $1.97 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=slw
SSRI - Silver Standard Resources Inc. = $1.1 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ssri
WTZ - Western Silver Corp. = $1.26 BILLION
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=wtz
OF SIGNIFICANT NOTE IS: My research seems to indicates that both SSRI (market cap of $1.1 BILLION) and WTZ (market cap of $1.26 BILLION) HAVE NO MINING REVENUE... and look to be valued based upon their in-ground Silver/mineral reserves and their potential future revenue.
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Silver Bells, Silver Bells....
http://www.always-safe.com/silverbells.html