No real bounce after hitting new multi-year lows on heavy volume. Expect more pain next week.

This is far from over based off the recent news, not to mention the year-end tax-loss selling that's on deck for December.

#Weeeeee

First day in weeks that $FNMA didn't drop a few percent. Be thankful!

The lemmings will probably bid this up on low volume tomorrow, but ...

... Sub-$1 on deck for next week.

#GobbleGobble

That quote has nothing to do with Commons being rewarded, so i'm not sure where you're going with it.

All i'm saying, and as others have suggested, is Moelis likely inflated the potential Common price under their proposal to make it seem attractive to the Treasury to want to follow this recapitalization process in order to maximize their returns from the Warrants.

However, Moelis is in the business of "selling" their recap plans. There's surely no guarantee Commons ever see the quoted $17/share. It's highly likely Moelis is putting lipstick on the pig.

Commons may never see $5/share again, ever! They may still very well get Cancelled as part of the Recap process.

Carney & Corker both suggesting Commons get Shafted. Remember, Moelis' price target for Commons is only being inflated to make recap more attractive to the Treasury (so they can cash-in on those Warrants).

In reality, Commons may never even see $5 again under Moelis. The Average Joe Hedge Funds won't make out like bandits by ripping off the American Taxpayers.

And for that, I'm thankful.



Common shareholders should start talking to lawyers, as they're going to be left to fend for themselves.

Yahoo Finance hasn't been updated to reflect JPM's purchases. Therefore, it's likely not true. Y.F. Ultra Premium has everything.

Since they're considered penny stocks, it's possible JPM purchased Preferred Shares and not Commons.

Can you please share a link to these purchases so we can verify this information?

LOL, Carney is arguing in favor of NWS continuing in perpetuity. That would surely Cancel Commons.

Thankfully, the majority of posters here aren't listening to the AJ Pumpers and the nonsense they spew daily

Yes, pretty good chance Commons get zeroed out as part of the recap, hence their current market price.

Looks like we can finally put this ridiculous rumor to rest.

Someone just got served.

If they build the framework, they will come! Investors will be lined up on Wall St, Broadway, Park Ave, and down through Times Square.

Their is a huge appetite for the GSEs considering their monopoly. Even if existing shareholders get F*d in the A, TBTF Bank will want a piece of this pie no matter what!


#IfYouBuildItTheyWillCome

Your actions are commendable. It's good to see others speak out against the rampant, imaginary fascinations of some of the FNMA investors.

Everyone should share their thoughts on why they bought FNMA and what they think is coming. But let's also keep things in perspective that we continue to lose in Courts and it's highly unlikely the Government/Treasury will do the right thing in the end.

Agreed! Warrants are the only reason to Recap/Release the GSEs. Anyone delusional enough to believe the Warrants won't be exercised (ie: significant dilution to existing shareholders) is going to be in for a shock & awe moment.

It's disappointing and sad that a few AJ Pumpers continue to spew lies regarding this SEC Letter, Uplistings, Mergers, Imaginary/Non-existent Capital Levels, etc. Someone has to counter the blatant BS

If you just posted the SEC Warrant Letter, we could all show him the SEC says the Warrants are illegal and can't be exercised.

I wonder who holds higher authority, though, the US Treasury or the SEC. See my signature for the Treasury's stance on the Warrants.


#WarrantsWillBeExercised

Let them buy worthless junk, that's their decision.

The down-side to lower prices in Commons means more shares will need to be sold to raise the necessary capital to exit Conservatorship. That's not a problem Preferreds will ever have to deal with.

I just hope the people buying Commons are hedging their bets like Ackman in anticipation of a recap plan that's likely to benefit the Preferreds over the Commons.

I'm not here to advocate for/against either, only here to counter the irrational exuberance of several Average Joe Pumpers and to help folks realize there's a reason the big boys are betting on Preferreds over Commons. Follow the money!


#CommonsProblems

It depends on who the replacement is. Calabria might cause further panic selling in Commons and a big run for Preferreds as he would likely advocate for Receivership. Michael Bright would also cause massive selling in Commons, Preferreds are largely unaffected by Bright.

I'm not sure if any of the potential FHFA Directors would be an immediate boon for Common shareholders. Most would likely cause more uncertainty and the market does not like uncertainty right now.

I have some sub-$0.50 bids in to be safe in case there is a massive panic selling wave down. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Just wait for $FNMA to go up a nickel. You will think it's trading at new all-time highs with the irrational exuberance that will surely ensue.

I think most of the AJ Lemmings have over-invested and will be watching $FNMA like a hawk, even on the weekends just to make sure Yahoo Finance didn't update their website with some breaking news.

The reek of desperation is permeating both twitter and ihub. I just hope no one took out a 2nd mortgage to invest in Commons; otherwise, we might see several of these folks over the next few months:

Updating my $FNMA year-end price target to $0.87. Technicals are indicating there's a lot more pain to come before there's any relief in sight.

Sell/Short the pops, trade the drops. Lots of volatility on the horizon as several of the bagholders/lemmings cling on to hope their lottery ticket may pay off.

Not a recco

You have to look at things objectively considering the doldrums FNMA has fallen into. Instead of clinging on to hope and berating less optimistic posters, maybe it's time to re-evaluate your investment.

Have things changed since you bought FNMA? I know things changed for me after the NWS was implemented, hence my reasoning for swapping to Preferreds.

At this point, FNMA is being treated as a lottery ticket by a large group of Hedge Fund Speculators hiding behind the mask of the Average Joes. It's quite obvious from the outside though. The admin also realizes this and will make sure these speculators don't get $1000 a share, or $100 a share, and probably not even $10 a share.

Anyone holding Commons at this point is simply gambling they'll be rewarded. Looking at the facts, I think Commons will be lucky to see $5 again any time soon.


#SayNoToAverageJoe

I'm sure there's some glimmer of hope for the Average Joe's at the end of the tunnel. Maybe a few pennies for the torture they've endured post-conservatorship.

I think the people that held $FNMA prior to the Conservatorship and prior to the NWS are deserving of a little more. But anyone that bought after the NWS deserves everything that's coming.

With year-end tax loss selling bound to accelerate as we get closer to 2019, I imagine the Lows of the year haven't been seen yet.

Not sure any new material is required considering the price is nearing -60% YTD. Don't blame the messenger.

Commons starting to panic as Recap Window closes. With the broader market deterioration, it will become significantly harder for the GSEs to raise capital.

At this point, the Admin might just want to let whatever is coming occur so they don't have to recap the GSEs only to put them back into Conservatorship and/or declare Receivership.

It doesn't look good at all, and Commons are starting to make this realization.

With things the way they are, it would be best to take any Recap plan put forward just to get out of government control. Otherwise, we are likely looking at another decade of Conservatorship and possibly Receivership if the economy rolls over into a Recession

Yahoo Finance says Common Shares are getting Cancelled. Can anyone else with Ultra Premium membership confirm they see this filing?



A few Preferred posters have the full filing. I'm just sharing the first page for now. I'll post the rest another time.

Yahoo Finance shows Conservatorship is over. Uplisting imminent!

You have you get the Ultra Premium Membership, but they just confirmed some new GSE filings.

Didn't Yahoo Finance also break the up-listing news? They may have also been the ones that broke news of an imminent GSE Merger. There's some really great info at Yahoo Finance, we should all be checking there multiple times per hour to make sure we don't miss anything else.

At this point, I'm cancelling my Bloomberg subscription since Yahoo Finance has up-to-the-second information that can't be found anywhere else on the internet, not even on the SEC's EDGAR system. Simply amazing!

Level VI Balance Sheet access is a game-changer for GSE investors. Only wish I heard of this years ago. It would have been so easy to see all of the escrowed NWS funds sitting there waiting to be returned to shareholders (only Commons though, none for Jr. Preferreds).

Who would've thought Yahoo Finance could deliver this much unbeknownst information. I'm shocked the SEC hasn't shut this service down as it's clearly insider information that the public isn't supposed to know about.

Didn't believe it at first, but you're right! After subscribing to Yahoo Finance's Ultra Premium membership, I can also confirm it shows there's a pending payment of $133 Billion from the Treasury to Fannie Mae. This is incredible!

Looks like all of the NWS money is being sent back and Common shareholders will get to keep all of it. There's also another filing here that shows all Jr. Preferred Shares are being Cancelled effective 11/30/2018. So anyone owning Preferreds is going to want to sell and buy Commons before the end of the month.

YUGE pop coming for $FNMA tomorrow! We should easily double on this news.

Yahoo Finance always seems to have breaking news. This is some great investigative research.

Instead of multiplying by -1, what happens when you take the square root and then multiply it by 2?

Any chance FNMA bounces back this week? Unless there's significant volume of 15+ million, then we're still in Sell All Rallies mode.

But, there is good news! Since it's a short week, we probably won't see sub-$1 until next week.

Not a recco

Placed Buy Orders at $0.89, $0.78, and $0.67. Let's fill that gap so I can make some money trading this P.O.S. I can buy some more Preferreds assuming this trade doesn't turn south on me


#GoAverageJoes!

Small bounce eod, but most of the volume was on the down side. We rebounded on very light volume. That doesn't bode well for next week. Any bounce, unless we see heavy volume on the up-swing, should be sold into.

I don't think the blood bath is finished yet. We still have a lot further to fall before prices become attractive to new buyers.

Not a recco

Minnows aren't able to consume this much supply. Way too many shares being offloaded onto the Average Joe's and most of them loaded the boat with "cheapies" in the $1.50s, $1.40s, and $1.30s.

I doubt many of the AJs have money left to buy at this point. Those that do are sitting on 50+% losses and are unwilling to commit more Capital (ha!) to this investment at this point due to all of the uncertainty surrounding Commons.

The long foretold sub-$1 shares are coming. And even those shares might not be "cheap" until they hit sub-$0.50 ... Hold on to your ankles.

Are you suggesting Ackman is Rotating into Preferreds? That's a good possibility considering how Commons are trading versus Preferreds.

It would not be plausible to assume he's switching from Fannie to Freddie or vice versa. If that were the case, one would be up while the other is down. They wouldn't both be collapsing to new 3-year Lows on 7-10x the average daily volume.

Who's selling 1-million shares at new 3-year Lows? That's what I would be asking myself if I owned Commons. Something is definitely afoot here.

Please keep us posted Navy, you do an incredible job with this up-to-the-second information about each/every trade. Way to be a team player. Great work!

There is a Gap around $0.74 that needs to be filled. I think that's where the evil MMs are taking us down to.

Once that Gap is filled, Commons might actually have a chance to get back above $1.40. I'll be trading that to make some more money to buy Preferreds

There's a good chance all of those orders get filled by this time next week. Maybe sooner!

#SayNoToAverageJoe

Berkowitz pressing his Short Common position is the likely culprit. He's going to make Commons bleed out so bad Moelis will seem like the best thing that's happened since sliced bread.

As others have mentioned, 20.01% of something is better than 100% of nothing. Take what you can get before $FNMA is trading back near All-Time Lows.

It's time we all came together and embraced Moelis.


#Kumbaya

Is $FNMA a Buy, Sell, or Short now?

Can you let us know where to put our stop-losses? I bought on your recommendation and need an update. This is the 2nd time you advised buying and the technicals went against us.

#DarnThoseTechnicals

Wait a second. GSEs need to raise capital?! How on earth will they do that?

Do you mean to tell me that the GSEs are going to need to re-IPO (aka dilution) in order to raise capital?

That's crazy talk!

Or Sweeney is setting up a Massive Dismissal. Have you considered that possibility? Get all of the pending lawsuits grouped together only to be shot down by the last remaining Judge that might still be able to save shareholders (besides Lamberth, and he will only benefit Preferred shareholders).

I imagine that's a pretty good possibility considering the way the Courts have ruled thus far.

Everyone should keep their expectations aligned with reality so no one has to go jump off a bridge once this possibility becomes a reality. The world needs every Average Joe it can get.

Why are Preferreds GREEN today? Possible Admin leak or is it just the Rotation picking up steam?

There's definitely something going on that we're not privy to yet. Maybe Andrew Olmem knows something we don't...

Heavy volume sell-off. About to hit 3-year Lows! And Preferreds are as GREEN as could be. Something is definitely going on behind the scenes

This looks more like Realization that Commons are soon to be Worthless Junk. This doesn't look like Capitulation to me at all. Maybe if we hit 15 million volume, that would be Capitulation.

This is just frustration, disappointment, and the Average Joe's coming to terms that this investment isn't going to pan-out as some had anticipated.

#TIMBER