""Thanks to MNTA’s $300M+ cash balance and strong cash flow from operations, MNTA no longer needs an FoB partnership for the partner’s cash""

Dew, it is pleasant to own a company which can negotiate from a position of strength.

""we need to stop this BS of policing the world. let them take care of themselves. but then you would have the military community crying about lost jobs."

bioTechHedge,

The industrial part of the military-industrial complex got really smart. They now distribute all their projects into as many house districts and states as possible. This way they can get the politicians in those districts and states to use the misguided and false jobs issue to continue the excess and wasteful spending.

Dew,

Thanks for the link, but I did know about the nice start in agricultural cuts for ethanol subsidies. I was imprecise in my commentary as I was talking more broadly about agrticultral subsisdies.

As far as defense cuts, I recently finished reading an excellent biography of Dwight Eisenhower by Stephen Ambrose. Eisenhower was pretty a pretty amazing guy, who in my view doesn't get enough credit for the job he did as a president. That may have a lot to do with his failures and inaction on civil rights issues. Anyway, NATO was his baby and one of the major achievements of his administration. NATO and the Marshall plan played major roles in stabilizing Europe and helping unify it.

Here are two things about NATO and defense that really struck me. First, while Eisenhower was the driving force behind NATO, he didn't envision the US as a the permanent force it is there now. There was supposed to be a transition with a unified European defense force playing the major defense role. Eisenhower said that if the US was still the major military force in Europe in 10 years, then it would be a failure. The Europeans are playing us for chumps as we spend a boat-load of money to defend them, while they spend their money themselves.

Second, Eisenhower repeatedly mocked those who kept pushing for ever more military spending as if there were a direct correlation between the amount spent and the level of our security. This was most apparent in the irrational push towards more and more nuclear missiles. He stated that the military would never be satisfied and always make a case how additional spending is needed. Of course, we all know his famous warning about the rising power of the military-industrial complex and the famous "cross of iron speech" regarding the costs to society of military spending. Sadly what he feared has come true in a way that exceeded his worst fears.

It matters more in the long term than the short term. If it spurs congress to finally raise taxes, or at the very least allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, then it will do some good. Well, as long as that is combined with some fiscal discipline on the spending side with significant military cuts, especially what we spend in Europe on their "defense".

10nisman,

Excellent post. Funny how the guys who keep saying "tax cuts" will cure everything don't seem to realize, or want to acknowledge, that a big part of the "stimulus" was tax cuts.

We need to raise taxes and use some of the money in infrastructure. Yes we also need to cut some spending, and can start with agricultural subsidies.

investorgold,

I think people are too quick to push for stock buybacks. I like the idea that MNTA is building up a cash reserve with the revenues from M-Enox. I wouldn't mind if MNTA used the milestone payments for share buybacks since we don't know how much they are or will be.

With the market dropping like a rock, don't you think it is a good idea to not have to sell shares to raise funds if, perish the thought, another enox gets approved before M-copaxone? Besides, there are a lot of way a big cash hoard can help you build up the business without having to dilute.

That is spot on!

Thanks Dew. I was always concerned at the operating margins with DNDN since each vaccine is custom made, so the cost would be high and profit low. When you factor in what BSR_David wrote about DNDN eating the expense it shipping delays destroy Provenge, or patients stopping treatment after the first does, it does make one wonder how the analysts could come up with the high sales projections and rapid sales escalation that they did.

You made a comment that you thought that DNDN would end up around $20. That price would still place its market cap at $3 billion.

Dew,

I know both of use were big skeptics about DNDN because it was priced to perfection and had a market cap of more than $5 billion despite only limited sales. As far as DNDN ever being profitable, we know a course of Provenge treatment costs $90K, but how much of that is profit/treatment?

DNDN was dramatically scaling up their production facilities before securing solid demand. Looks like that is smacking them in the face a bit now.

oldberkeley,

Sorry for the delay in my response. There isn't any news to justify the recent drop in PGNX. The amount of shares traded has been extremely low lately, so price manipulation or small changes in sentiment by even moderately large shareholders can significantly alter the price. I can't speak to the conjugated anti-PMSA antibodies for prostate cancer because it is only in early phase I trials, nor the antibodies to the C. difficile toxin because it is still pre-clinical so we need to focus on Relistor, which is approved for advanced medical illness only.

Actually PGNX prospects look brighter than they have in some time with submission to expand the Relistor label to the very large chronic pain market completed and the phase III trial of the Relistor oral formulation soon to be completed. There is new president (Mark Baker) who actually takes the time to inform shareholder and who demonstrated his business acumen by getting an excellent deal with Salix for Relistor, which has Salix paying all the future development costs, and gives PGNX the majority of sales for a European deal. Relistor sales are quite low now, but that is in part due to Wyeth being bought and dropping Relistor. I don't expect great sales numbers to come in until chronic pain is approved, but there will surely be a decent rise with a leader in gastroenterology like Salix in charge.

I also like that Baker is starting a review to further cut expenses, which likely spells the end of PRO140 or even more likely, the end, sale or partnership of the pre-clinical anti-HepC entry program. The former CEO Maddon was clueless in regards to business. I already own too much PGNX, but if the price drops lower, I may be enticed to buy more but the MNTA price drop looks even better to me. What to do??

Doing research in physics is quite different than doing research on biological organisms. I work on the latter and some of my best work comes from playing around just to see what happens. It isn't so much about theory but rather perturbing a complex system you are interested in and observing the outcome. If you keep getting the answers you expect and like, you aren't asking the right questions or aren't working on an interesting enough problem.

What matters for the oral version is to reach a drug level that provides clinical activity. If you can it doesn't really matter if you can reach a higher amount via IV.

mcbio,

Thanks for the very informative post. I do own some IMGN and have more than doubled my initial stake, but have concerns about future growth given the low royalty rate. If I had any brains, I would think about lighten up now, but might wait a bit longer.

I do like the mention of PGNX at the end of the story that Hammer is opening a position in it. I have owned too much of it for a long time and it has been an anchor around my neck/wallet. I like the deal PGNX struck with Salix a few months ago. with and the payoff should be coming in then next year. I listen to the new PGNX CEO Mark Baker in a recent investor conference and he said that Relistor is being looked at for partnerships in Europe. What surprised and delighted me was that outside the US there would be a 60%-40% split of revenues with Salix, but in PGNX's favor. Something in Europe might happen later this year. I had a chance to make some nice money but failed to pull the trigger on that a few years ago. I have to learn when to sell off portions of my investments when I get the chance to lock in profits.

zipjet,



The way I looked at it, Bernanke did what he could to stabilize the US financial system and economy, and perhaps world economy. I think he did a good job and as it worked. My comments were more directed to where we go from here. I think interest rates need to rise, slowly for sure, but they need to rise. Super cheap credit can only lead to excesses and the some of the same problems we just experienced.

<Has the Fed’s loose monetary policy retarded US economic growth? >

Dew, I read the title of your post quickly and thought it began "Has the Fed's retarded loose monetary policy...."

My two cents on the article is that they say the loose monetary policy isn't working as well as they hoped because banks are being cautious in lending. That argument can also be made as to why keeping the Bush tax cuts in place, especially for the higher brackets AND adding in the payroll tax and ss tax cuts that were enacted last year have been ineffective. If people as being very cautious is the problem, then it would be more insane to cut taxes again.

I love the way universities trump up papers by scientists who work there.

micro,

I agree about Carfilzomib, accelerated approval is dicey but feel pretty good about ultimate approval. If ONXX tanks because the accelerated approval is denied, I will consider buying more. I am kicking myself a bit as I considered selling about 25% of my ONXX when it hit the mid $40s, but was too slow on the trigger.

jack,

I will add my two cents. I too was a bit over-optimistic about Nexavar sales in Asia with regard to the time frame. Asian sales are growing, just slower than I expected. I think it has only been about 6 months since S. Korean worked out the government re-imbursement. That hasn't happened yet in China, but I recall off-hand that there are still significant sales there. I also recall that sales haven't yet peaked in Japan so let's not dismiss Nexavar sales in Asia quite so quickly.

I will agree with micro that it looks like ONXX needs to do a much better job in controlling costs. I believe their ending the jak inhibitor joint venture was along those lines. Obviously the near term price drivers will be whether Carfilzomib will be granted accelerated approval and how the lawsuit with Bayer plays out.

MNTA just hit $20. Isn't it time for some analyst to make some disparaging comment about MNTA and or positive comment about TEVA to drive the MNTA stock price lower?

Dew,

Sarcasm fits you well.

Starbucks coffee doesn't taste like it is roasted, it tastes like it has been burnt.

mcbio,

{{How exactly do you define "based on how he delivers to shareholders"}}


Well, if I order a pizza and Wheeler makes sure I got it while it was still warm. That would qualify as a good delivery!

{{It's a game of tennis between science and nature. Science is prone to disruption (war, economics, etc.) where nature is perfect, never takes a day off, and it will capitalize on science's shortcomings. Even if one of those shortcomings is a scientific platform based on good intention.

So yes the possibility is real but that's not what I was refering to in my post concerning Atripla.}}


I beg to differ. It might be a theoretical possibility, but one that is so remote as to not be worth thinking about. HIV already has a high rate of mutation, so the possibility is already out there. But you have to consider that for HIV to be successful, it can't kill the host too quickly or its opportunity to be passed on will be dramatically reduced. Even if the drug increased the error rate so that a "super" virus could be made, it would have also have a better chance of losing the mutations that gave it super status.

I like this part of Rubini's comments.

{{Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.

The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.9 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus. Bond Market ‘Revolt’

World expansion may slow in the second half of 2011 as “the deleveraging process continues,” fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs, Roubini also said.

Easing growth may spur demand for dollar assets as a “safe haven,” he said in response to questions after a speech in Singapore today. The Dollar Index, which gauges the U.S. currency’s value against a basket of six counterparts including the euro, yen and British pound, rose 0.1 percent as of 11:35 a.m. in Singapore, bound for a fourth straight daily increase. }}


Rubini seems contradictory as well as trying to cover all bases. So he says a surge in oil prices will sap the world economy. Then he says easing growth may spur demand for the US dollar as a flight to safety occurs. Oil is priced in dollars and is subject to at least some demand pressure. If the dollar strengthens, the price of oil will drop. If the world economy slows, demand will slow and the oil price should drop. If high oil prices trigger slow downs, then shouldn't lower oil prices stimulate growth?

10nisman,

Nice post

Dew

{{Huh? If there are no significant safety concerns, why did the advisory committee vote that safety was not established?}}

That reminds me of the old joke. "Are you going to believe me, or your own eyes?"

jq1234,

Wow. Thanks for providing links to the very impressive data for melanoma from the BRAF/MEK combination out of GSK. I see from the third link that there are discussions to move from phase I directly into phase III. I assume this synergistic effects of BRAF & MET inhibitors isn't something specific to the GSK drug combo, so don't you think this success will induce other companies to try their own combos?

You buying any GSK now?

Taxi,

Best of luck training good stocks or even trading garbage stocks. I am sure some people make money doing so, even involving the garbage, but doing so requires that uninformed investors get duped by believing wild promises based on hype or even outright lies. Frankly, people who hype garbage stocks at the expense of others earn my unending scorn.

This board is dedicated to people who want to gain insights about drugs in development and their prospects. Traders can also profit from this knowledge.

The ONXX rocket continues. I am at a bit of a loss to explain why it keeps going up so much. Don't get me wrong as I am enjoying it since I own ONXX. Is this what buyout speculation looks like, or has there been some leak regarding Carfilzomib trial data?

DFRAI,

I used to own ONCY several years ago, and grew disgusted at the incompetence, ignorance and or less than honest comments by the CEO at the time Brad Thompson. After I had bought ONCY, it came to my attention that Brad Thompson had given a public (print) interview about Reovirus where he stated that he expected Reolysin to be approved in about 18 months. I believe the interview was in 2001, but the key point is that Reolysin had just begun or was about to being its first phase I testing. It is the height of dishonesty, and or ignorance for a CEO to claim any oncology drug, let alone a live virus, just entering phase I trials would be approved less than 2 years later. I almost sold on the spot, but held on because I liked the viral approach. Over the next few years, I watched as Brad Thompson made comments on Reolysin time lines that were always way too optimistic, so the ONCY never came close to realizing them. He also made comments that were very overly optimistic to the point of misrepresenting some results. After watching this for several years, I sold off at a minor loss.

Is Brad Thompson still the ONCY CEO? I don't know if the Reovirus approach will ultimately be successful, but if it is it will be in spite of having Thompson as the CEO. In any event, I have no desire to invest in any company in which I don't trust the CEO.

TEVA has a hell of a lot off cash on hand. Even if, obviously I hope when, mCopaxone is approved, TEVA can buy they way out of a bad situation with regards to earnings by making wise acquisitions.

Is Brad Thompson still the CEO? That guys is one of the most clueless CEOs I have read about, and in my view is one reason why ONCY isn't taken seriously.

oldberkeley,

Hmm, the FloBlu Euphoria Top Indicator or FETI is obviously a major predictive marker for market movement. I didn't see Rock Rat's post describing its discovery, but am well aware of it now.

MNTA is third in my portfolio in terms of overall value, but the FETI index seems to have bled over to my two major holdings, ONXX and PGNX as both are also rising. It looks like a 3 horse stock race, but in the interest of both you gentleman, I will root harder for MNTA to keep outgaining the others everyday.

Hey Flo,

MNTA didn't crack $20 today. You must feel bitterly disappointed. :)

mouton,

<247 is a bad number because it is the product of two primes, 19 and 13, and 13 is, well, does the word triskaidekaphobia mean anything to you? >

I see you are a math whiz. Others may have issues with #13, but that is my lucky number!!

How long will it take for jbog to tell us why $247 million is actually a bad number, rather than a good one?

Flo,

That's what I like to see, a big rise in MNTA stock price. It has now pushed me into the black as my price average is $16.07. My last two MNTA purchases in the low $13 range feel pretty damn good right now. All I need is for PGNX to keep rising and all my biotech stocks will be in the black!

Dew

<From a strictly mathematical standpoint, the ballooning number of cancer-drug candidates is bearish in the aggregate for investors in biotech companies that are focused entirely in this area.>

Yes that makes sense. I also think it is worse for big pharma as they need the big blockbusters. With tumor typing the market for a drug gets split, making it harder to achieve or hold blockbuster status.

I was just scanning the CRIS yahoo message board and a poster cash2go put up the following link about hedgehog signaling promoting multidrug resistance (MDR) via P-glycoprotein in myeloid leukemia cells. Sounds like it is worth reading.

http://www.nature.com/onc/journal/v29/n48/full/onc2010375a.html

Jbog,

<If Momenta earned one penny or one dollar it would mean nothing to the shareholders.>

Wow!! That is on par with bits saying on the yahoo board that is it bad to do too much due diligence.