upp: I saw no provocation for your diatribe.

Did I see a target from you over 3000 SPX?

If I were a big floor trader, I would be doing as you described. The solution(?) is to lengthen the term (reduce the sensitivity) for the trend sys, following longer trends AND enter on an oscillator e.g. CCI geared to a shorter term. Thus you maintain say longs when MACD is long, but only while CCI swings from oversold to overbought.
Oddlot

Part of the public who is being robbed is seniors/retired persons. They have no safe investments, although the banks can borrow for almost nothing and buy bonds for a spread, and the fed buys back the bonds. So, the seniors are being impoverished so the banks can replenish their balance sheets.

IMHO, individuals (only) should be able to open a savings account which provides an adequate return. Govt provides welfare to nonsavers, and to corporate favorites; a stipend to savers might create a source of consumer demand that would have important results.
Oddlot

GLD holding longs basis 163.80. The premise is that 20-25 week cycle is bottoming and will top approx 10-13 weeks after the low. The amplitude has been approx $20 from low to high, so the high could easily be new alltime highs (185 now, but the uptrend would add to that value by March). Multiple longer-term models focus on 162.30 as the important pivot, while trendline support is slightly above that.

The SPY/GLD ratio appears to have topped with high near 0.88 and bollinger support near 0.82, or a drop by SPY to 135 area if GLD is steady. Holding trending and trading shorts in SPY, and very comfortable with the two positions short equities/long gold.

Oddlot

GMN re $155: possibly, but IMHO the trendline holds and this upmove ends in March.
Oddlot

GLD may open on my buy orders at 164.60; this is just above a trendline, and on a Fib retracement point. With the cyclic low due, it looks like time to try. If stopped out, I will keep trying.
Oddlot

SPY vs GLD is an attractive short IMHO. Watching 30min trends and some CCI's. Still trending higher and the sell signal will probably mark good entries for both elements.
Oddlot

Gold has a 25week and 30day cyclic lows due end of week. GLD if it drops slightly to 164.50 looks like a good long term buy.
Oddlot

SPY SDS closed trading short in SDS

Fiscal cliff: I think it unlikely a deal can be prior to the cliff. BO wants his media cronies to beat up on GOP, and we are in a lose/lose situation. IMHO SPY will have a really.hard time breaking 144-145.
Oddlot

SPY holding trending and trading shorts. Trend target 128-132 SPY.
Oddlot

GLD awaiting 25 week and 30day nested lows, to occur end of next week. Target 157-162.
Oddlot

SPY SDS reestablished trading shorts via SDS 55.59
Oddlot

SPY trading short was stopped out at the opening. Holding trend shorts.
Oddlot

Yes. I dont see any other way other than legalized theft by govt.

SPY holding trend shorts from 143.0 and 140.0; added trading short near 140.60 via SDS.
Oddlot

Grantham predicts 1% growth average to 2050. Growing our way out of current problems without significant spending cuts would be impossible, and spending cuts will kill the economy.

SPY holding shorts via SH established above 143.00; added this am with opening into resting sell orders at 140.13.

A rally of 6.00 from low of 134.50 would be a classic short, and prices have extended past that level. Even so, the high of prior 11 days is still not broken nor other points of significance.

Would not be surprized to see negative news from retail front and weakness next week. Many layoffs are happening due to Obamacare and pending tax increases. Union activities targeting retail in this very important period should lower earnings, as should consumer comservatism in a very uncertain environment. I continue to feel the major trend is down and the task is to manage the exposure to shorts.

Oddlot

Re 20 week low: the half wave ma50 had a change in direction Friday(?) which would point to a target of approx 1285. This sign change occurs because the cycle is halfway thru the move from top to bottom. This conflicts with the notion of a low at this time.
Oddlot

Interesting comments re dollar strength. See google for roubini, marc faber, and read.the.ticker.com blog regarding dollar strength. Roubini thinks euro is 20% overvalued, and RTT comments that over 50% of SPX companies would be impacted. If dollar rises 20%, declining revenue and eps will kill mkt p/e, and the hope of growing our way out of the deficit. It would also cast doubt on gold trend, and the ability of china/asia to avoid a hard landing.

However, a hard landing might impact usa and europe source of funds and require more printing of fiat money.

Looks like a synchronized global hard landing, and history says it will be extremely ugly.
Oddlot

Welcome. Now that you have made your grand re-entrance after 4 months, we look forward to your normal learned comments, sans theatrics.
Oddlot

SPY bear trading with SDS was closed this AM on the open. Prior post reiterated target of 137 and another at 137.50, and plans to close near the 137.80 level. This was accomplished at the open of 137.62.

Holding LT bear position in SH taken with SPY above 143.00. Trading position is flat and looking for decent bounce on which to reestablish.

A rally of 5-6 days would place us at the proper time for a peak in the
10 day and 21 day cycles; resistance IMHO is at 141.00 and I will probably replace the short above 140.75 and add more on failure after that point.

Oddlot

My concern is that many people can not buy a home because of credit mkts, and when that changes many renters will leave to become home owners again.
Oddlot

SPY cyclical obj for 26 week cycle is approx 130-131. The 60min equiv of the 1/2 wave cycle is changing direction, which creates the objective.
Oddlot

HD thanks.

Absolutely agree. Be in cash, or short equities, or long gold&silver, or any combination thereof. Cyclically, lows may occur either Spring or Fall of 2013, but the presidential cycle says not to hope for much until Oct2014. Play defense. This also suggests that real estate has not bottomed, and when it does the current interest in rental housing may create another class of bagholders.
Oddlot

SPY the breaking of prior low of 139.06 generates a swing obj of approx 137.50. I will close the trading position in SDS near 137.80 when it occurs.

The additional back and fill lowered the pnf obj to 132 area, so plan to reshort after any decent bounce.

Oddlot

OBV, especially the ultrashort period, tends to lead price, IMHO. The 1min OBV dropped below the prior daily low on the close with the 10min trin climbing to the highs. The Big boys are selling all day and selling more near the close. Any bounce is a gift and should be shorted, IMHO.
Oddlot

Congrats on your win. Let me know when you are actively considering another short. I will consider it a valuable "heads-up".
Oddlot

Thanks. The pix would not load for me on my phone, but I assume that swing points are prior lows as the mkt bounces.

HD your soapbox awaits. Your record is far better than most, so what do you expect now?
Oddlot

Your next mission, if you choose to accept it, is to get flat. The world looks different from a neutral position. Repeat ad nauseum: I will not buy the dip, I will not buy the dip.........
Oddlot

Absolutely not. The trend is down, and the targets are well beneath us. The only variable is your time horizon/risk tolerance. IMHO we will not return to your/my entry point. Set a stop and give it some time. The average citizen will not decide to get out for at least several days; currently they are either shellshocked, or repeating a buy the dip mantra. Trends always go further than anyone thinks possible, which is why I have both trading and trend positions. IMHO this is just getting started.
Oddlot

SPY re short term: this is day#8 on the 21 day cycle, so the next good bottom should be in 11-15 days.
Oddlot

So, now what? China goes for a hard landing, with implications for basic materials demand AND potential availability of financing for Western world financial problems. Future inflation says own gold, as does the spy/gold ratio. The trend underlying the 4.0-4.5 year is downward and the lower channel boundary is near 700 SPX, or a potential fall of 50%.

Over the next few weeks, the cycles should bottom in nominal 3 weeks for SPY. The pnf targets are uniform in wanting 134-135. The cyclic target matches the bar chart pattern for an objective of 137-138.

Gold has an interesting situation. The nominal 25 week cycle bottoms in mid Dec. The 1min OBV rallied but not as much as price, and has gone back down to the lows of the move. I expect Gold to resume the down trend with a target for GLD of nominal 157.

Holding long term bear position in SH and a trading short in SDS. Planning to buy GLD near 157-158. If FXE goes below 124.50, look for a bottom in everything on a trading basis.

The election has come and gone. It is what it is, and now we have to figure out how to make money.

Good luck to us all.
Oddlot

SPY the objective of 137 still looks ok, and the bar chart pattern, which could be forming a consolidation after the first leg, also would measure to 137 if the consolidation breaks downward.

SPY added trading short via SDS at 55.16
Oddlot

Thanks. While crowds make me nervous, a few friends are always welcome.
Oddlot

SPY is in LT downtrend and this is the rally I have waited for. A LT bear position was started with SPY at 143.35 via SH at 34.17.
Oddlot