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2 big events happened today;
(1) MM's were able to very quickly (much quicker than normal) clean out the weak hands...
and
(2) we were dealt broad-based bad news... but after the broad-based bad news is digested, I think it will end up being good news for FMNJ.
FMNJ has a 4th generation Bolivian CEO.
Nice consolidation over the past few days.
Guy's like the guy who publically announced he was sitting on a $650,000 profit (and was a little nervous) was primed for a shakeout... the MM's will be out to test his nerves over the next day or 2.
Notice on the OPEC map, how many of the OPEC members are located in/near political and/or terrorism hot spots...
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/2004/FileZ/MapZ.htm
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies... IN SAFE LOCATIONS.
More interesting US Dollar charts...
from http://www.jsmineset.com
A slightly longer term US Dollar chart...
from http://www.jsmineset.com
The U.S. oil industry is not publicly saying it, but there are rising worries about the ability to repair the damage of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in time for the next hurricane season. According to the New York Times: "Few will openly say so, but oil companies are racing against the clock."
According to the New York Times: "the huge task of fixing the country's most important energy hub is far from over. Six months after Hurricane Katrina battered the gulf with 175-mile-an-hour winds and waves higher than eight-story buildings, more than a quarter of the region's oil output is still shut down."
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2006/0304.html
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies... IN SAFE LOCATIONS.
The Gulf Coast accounts for about 23% of the USA's domestic natural gas and 30% of its oil, according to the U. S. Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service. Hurricane Katrina interrupted 95% of gulf oil production and 88% of the outer continental shelf's natural gas production, the agency said...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/katrinadamage.pdf
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies.
Report Highlights U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Shocks...
Amid high global oil and U.S. gasoline prices, a report released today by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE) and the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) demonstrates that the United States is vulnerable to much more severe oil shocks should even relatively small amounts of oil be withdrawn from the global market due to terrorism, political unrest or additional natural disasters.
The report details the findings of Oil Shockwave, an oil crisis simulation conducted earlier this summer, which found that taking less than 4% of oil off the global market due to small incidents of political unrest and terrorism would cause prices to rise dramatically to more than $161 bb.
http://www.energycommission.org/site/page.php?pressrelease=10
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies.
The oil crisis has arrived in the United States. This summer’s storm season exposed the Achilles heel of the U.S. economy: OIL. We have reached what system analysts refer to as ”a single point of failure.” It is the one item that if it breaks down, it brings the entire system down with it. Like it or not the U.S. economy runs on oil—cheap oil—and we are running out of it. Oil powers our economy in manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture. Without it, our economy would cease to function. There is no other commodity other than water that can have such an effect on how and what we do. Oil is the lifeblood of our economy....
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1014.html
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies.
Venezuela: Slowly Turning Off the Tap Toward the US...
April 22, 2006
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is taking decisive steps to turn off or at least significantly reduce the flow of oil from Venezuela to the U.S., as Venezuela's state owned oil company PDVSA, which owns the CITGO refineries and retail outlets in the U.S., has inked a key deal with India, taking the first key step away from the U.S. as its major oil buyer.
At the same time, PDVSA has announced that it will no longer reveal oil statistics to the SEC after paying off its debts to the U.S. through the purchase of some $80 million in U.S. bonds, according to reports.
The India deal and the refusal to disclose information are not just strategic, but also send a message to the U.S. about Venezuela's future plans with regard to supplying the U.S. with oil....
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2006/0422.html
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US Energy Independence starts at home... by developing domestic energy supplies.
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock...
Audio interview with Matthew Simmons from Aug 6/05 (3 weeks before Katrina)...
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0806-2.asx
Sparked by personal observations of Saudi oil wells - which led him to suspect that some Saudi fields were in decline - energy industry insider Matt Simmons has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia's production will soon reach an apex, after which the world will be confronted with an immense and potentially catastrophic oil shortage. Written in a clear and engaging style, Twilight in the Desert provides an in-depth look at the world oil market and the mismanagement of Saudi oil resources. This factually based book is backed by over 200 technical papers-all published over the last 20 years-that individually detail problems with particular Saudi oil wells and fields, and collectively demonstrate how the entire Saudi system could stall under the pressure of higher world oil demand. Based on his analysis, Mr. Simmons asserts that sudden and sharp oil production declines could happen at any time. Twilight in the Desert shows that even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in global demand. Eventually, the reckoning day will come, and the world economy will be confronted with a major shock that will stunt economic growth, increase inflation, and further destabilize the Middle East.
April 30/06 - New oil shock ahead as $100 spike looms...
The growing international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme could trigger a catastrophic oil price spike, sending crude prices over $100 a barrel, senior Wall Street analysts are warning....
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1764412,00.html
April 30/06 - New oil shock ahead as $100 spike looms...
The growing international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme could trigger a catastrophic oil price spike, sending crude prices over $100 a barrel, senior Wall Street analysts are warning....
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1764412,00.html
There's no doubt big re-structurings are coming for GM and the Nation...
and I agree that Bill Gross is someone you should take seriously... here's a re-post of that link...
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2006/IO+May+2006.htm
One thing Bill forgot to mention in his article (unless I missed it)... is; how is the US Govt. going to pay for recurring massive Hurricane damage, and the resulting energy inflation spin-off's.
Critical level passed
on Friday for the US Dollar...
I agree on the Commodities thing... I think we are only 6 - 12 months away from seeing many (if not all) Commodities trading at record price levels...
Even now, a number of Commodities are already trading at their high's, or are trading just under their historical high's.
Opec says it's powerless to halt oil price surge...
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=151...
It may take a week or 2 for the MM's to flush out all the Day-Traders...
Also, I think more "investors" will come aboard once the company starts issuing some NR's showing new progress/advancements are being made, with additional progress to follow...
However, even without NR's... I think we'll see the price advance simply by oil going over $75 p/bbl again... as it's pretty hard to find an energy company with a price-per-share under 1 cent.
Gold and Silver only approx. 1 - 3 months away from going parabolic, IMO...
New interview with Matthew Simmons on the Energy supply constraints America (and the world) currently faces....
Audio interview...
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0429-2b.asx
If you research FPPL's 90 day avg. stock share volume, you'll see it's only aprox. 2,136,100 shares per day....
so even if we drop way down to only between 10 million to 20 million shares a day... we would still trading almost between 5x - 10x the previous 90 day avg. ... which, even at that those lower volumes, would likely bode well for the not to distant futre.
The FPPL Opportunity...
The opportunity for FPPL is to explore, develop, and supply USA energy needs from a safe geographic location (ie: in-land USA vs. the US Gulf Coast) in a safe geo-political environment (ie: the USA vs. Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Chad, Iraq, Afghanistan).
It is in the long-term national security interest of the USA to find and develop safe energy supplies domestically... as the risks of obtaining safe energy supplies in 3rd world countries and the Middle East have increased significantly over the past several years, and looks like the risks will continue to increase ... and it is the costs/risks/spin-off's resulting from insecure and volitile energy supplies that put the US economy and national security at an increasingly larger rate of risk.
Even within the USA, what use to be deemed as safe energy supplies are no longer safe... for example, the Gulf of Mexico, which has approx. 4,500 oil/gas platforms, as well as, energy refining & transportation infrastructure, have all been dealt major blows during the hurricanne seasons of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Katrina & Rita)
Source: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
... and forecasters are predicting the 2006 Hurricanne season to be approx. twice as strong as the historical norm.
Because the Hurricanes have already wreaked damage for 2 consective years on the oil/gas infrastrucutre in the Gulf of Mexico, the current state of the energy complex along the Gulf coast is not well, in fact production is STILL currently well below capacity due to oil/gas infrastructure damage that is yet to be repaired.
Because of the existing damage to the Gulf Coast energy complex... just the arrival of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will amplify America's energy problems, becuase, a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane requires the evacuation and shut-down of oil/gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico within the possible projected path... and in 2006, Scientists are projecting approx. five CATEGORY 3(or stronger) Hurricanes.
America is currently at the point where simply a Gulf Coast shut-down due to a Hurricane will magnify it's energy capacity/supply problems... the Hurricanes no longer have to damage energy infrastrucuture along the Gulf Coast to have a very negative effect on energy prices... just a simple shut down in the Gulf Coast while a CATEGORY 3(or higher) barrels through will magnify an already constrained/damaged system.
And the Hurricane problem isn't something that can be fixed in a year or 2... if you research Hurricanes further, and you'll find the trend for intense Hurricane activity is projected to last for between the next 10 - 20 years... and in my opinion, the increased Hurricane activity won't be over until mankind cures global warming... so, the long-term Hurricane activity really amplifies the need for America to immediately develop domestic energy supplies in SAFE GEOGRAHPIC REGIONS NOT PRONE TO HURRICANES/FLOODS.
And while the Hurricanes pose a great danger to the reliability/security of America's energy needs... so does geo-political instability from what use to be considered safe energy suppliers... as anyone can see, the stability of energy supplies to America coming from Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan, have grown increasingly vulnerable, and is unlikely to improve in the near term, and in fact, could become even more riskier and unstable.
As far as FPPL goes, I'm not vouching for FPPL, I simply don't know enough about the copmany... however, what I will vouch for is the NEED FOR AMERICA TO DEVELOP DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLIES IN SAFE/STABLE LOCATIONS FOR IT'S SHORT, MID, AND LONG TERM ECONOMIC/NATIONAL SECURITY, and while I can't say that FPPL has the goods/mangement to help fullfill that very important need, the opportunity for FPPL is there, it just needs to step forward now and fill those boots.
Looks like demand exceeds supply... just give it 6 months, things should get really interesting before the end of this year.
You might be right... as Oil prices are up after sliding for the past several days in a row... we could be back to $75 Oil by the middle or end of next week... and $80 Oil sometime in the very near future.
Gold & Silver on fire today ... I think its forecasting the effects upcoming related to the Iran issue....
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=6963
http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/energy/10282448.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm...
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-04-28T140208Z_01_L27662...
MM's are going to try their hardest to shake out as many of the new buyers as they can over the next week or two, IMO.
However, the international geo-politcal stage is being re-set, and the probable outcome should be higher energy prices over the next couple/few months...
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=6963
http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/energy/10282448.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm...
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-04-28T140208Z_01_L27662...
and we also start hurricane season in just over a month.
World System on Weimar Hyperinflation Collapse Curve
http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2006/3317weimar.html
A European think-tank has likened the cessation of M3 publication to Richard Nixons unilateral decision to suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1506648.cms
The US Dollar is also falling very hard right now... which virtually guarantee's higher Gold, Silver, and Oil prices...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
4 digit Gold is only a matter of time.... and possibly not much more time.
Pentagon end-run around NUKE test ban...
Apr 27, 2006 -- “Divine Strake”—the strange name for a scheduled test blast of 700 tons of explosives on Western Shoshone land in Nevada on June 2 — is nothing but a Pentagon end-run around the ban on nuclear weapons testing. It is scheduled at a time when a wing of the U.S. military and political establishment is considering the use of a new generation of tactical nuclear “bunker-busters”....
Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported in the April 17 edition of the New Yorker magazine that the Pentagon brass are arguing about whether or not to drop such a “bunker-buster” bomb on Iran’s main centrifuge plant at Natanz, some 200 miles south of Tehran....
http://www.workers.org/2006/us/nuke-test-0504/
Pentagon end-run around NUKE test ban...
Apr 27, 2006 -- “Divine Strake”—the strange name for a scheduled test blast of 700 tons of explosives on Western Shoshone land in Nevada on June 2 — is nothing but a Pentagon end-run around the ban on nuclear weapons testing. It is scheduled at a time when a wing of the U.S. military and political establishment is considering the use of a new generation of tactical nuclear “bunker-busters”....
Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported in the April 17 edition of the New Yorker magazine that the Pentagon brass are arguing about whether or not to drop such a “bunker-buster” bomb on Iran’s main centrifuge plant at Natanz, some 200 miles south of Tehran....
http://www.workers.org/2006/us/nuke-test-0504/
April 27, 2006 - WASHINGTON -- The House yesterday overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan bill that toughens sanctions against Iran until the country dismantles its nuclear programs, with supporters saying the move is a "key component of our war on terror.".........
http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20060427-122812-3477r
April 27, 2006 - WASHINGTON -- The House yesterday overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan bill that toughens sanctions against Iran until the country dismantles its nuclear programs, with supporters saying the move is a "key component of our war on terror.".........
http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20060427-122812-3477r
You can play around with some of the Gulf Coast Hurricane info here....
http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
It's not hard to understand (once you see the rig/hurricane maps) just how desireable FPPL's in-land energy properties could be in the not to distant future.
One of the biggest benefits I think Silver Investors will evetually see from this Barclay's Silver ETF will be;
that it will spawn similar (or copycat) Silver ETF's in India, Dubai, China, as well as in other area's....
I see it playing out very similarily to how the early W.G.C. sponsored GOLD ETF has recently spawned similar (or copycat) Gold ETF's in China, India, etc.
Did you guys catch that move in US Sustainable Energy - CYBR (formerly known as Cyber Care Inc.) during just the past couple days?....
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=cybr&sid=0&o_symb=cybr&f...
Now thats sumpn-sumpn.
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Reorganization of CyberCare, Inc. to U.S. Sustainable Energy Corporation;
EarthFirst/Cast-Crete will become the co-proponent of the Plan of Reorganization of CyberCare, Inc. ("CyberCare") (Other OTC:CYBR.PK - News). After the merger with Cast-Crete and CyberCare's emergence from reorganization, EarthFirst/Cast-Crete intend to combine the existing energy technologies with CyberCare's technology assets. The surviving entity will be known as U.S. Sustainable Energy Corporation.