Agreed. Common Shares are just a Lottery Ticket at this point. They are definitely not an investment.

How low will $FNMA go!? There's a gap around $0.65 that needs to be filled. I would expect that to fill once the Average Joe Lemming panic sets in.

If you guys thought Calabria was bad, wait until they announce Otting as Interim Director. Then we know with 100% certainty that Moelis is the Plan.

Watch the Lemmings panic when that becomes a reality, LMAO!

Remember guys, it's just money. Don't do anything crazy!

Cancelling Commons might be the best thing to do. With a swipe of the pen, they can Cancel Commons and start fresh with a clean balance sheet.

Yikes! Who could've seen this coming? Dilution incoming! Massive KaBOOM dilution will be required to get anywhere near Calabria's proposed 5% capital.

EPIC KaBoom Collapse to new multi-year lows coming! The likes of which no one could have possibly foreseen.

Commons officially have the Calabria Curse.

Gap Down in Pre-market? Calabria Confirmation Curse?

The Rotation from Commons to Preferreds is accelerating at a rapid pace now. At this rate, I would expect Commons to be sub-$1 by the end of next week.

With the majority of $FNMA investors being down ~60% YTD, tax-loss selling should also increase rapidly, especially now that there's more uncertainty surrounding Commons than ever before.

- Simple Jeff

Yahoo Finance Ultra Premium shows 20x Buy Volume. How is $FNMA down when there's 20x more buyers than sellers!?

I need a recco!

Commons not looking good at all right now. Only a few percent bounce from the multi-year lows it hit recently. Quite pathetic.

My Cousin Vinny said he was able to secure all of the Short Funding last week, so I imagine the volume we're starting to see is on the Short side.

I expect $FNMA to break the recent multi-year low it set a few weeks back and start making new multi-year lows by early next week.

It's coming!! Get ready for the cheapies!

- Simple Jeff

Does Recapitalization fall under the Big Changes category? One would think so considering that's a pretty drastic change from the norm.

I wonder if we're in for a big Nothing Burger with the next FHFA Director and it will be 10 more years of waiting.

I guess with Sweeney and Lamberth, we could see some Court action in 2020. But any shareholder wins in Court will surely be appealed, which would push things out at least another 12-18 months from then.

#KeepWaiting

You're not understanding. 5% Capital only hurts Commons as it would require massive dilution. Jr. Preferreds fair just fine in this scenario.

It's called selling at the Ask and not the Bid. It's really easy actually. Since every transaction has a buyer and seller, someone can quickly sell to the first buyer on the Bid, or they can place their shares at the Ask and wait for someone to buy them.

Since the panic selling already occurred (at least for now, but more panic is expected soon), the sellers wanting to Rotate into Preferreds are selling Commons at the Ask so they have funds to purchase Preferred shares.

And like that, Magic!

Maybe I'll buy some cheapies down around $0.80. I expect $FNMA to see that price in late December or early January.

It will be worth a trade at those prices since it might see a 5x from $0.80.

I don't see $FNMA trading above $5 over the next decade.

It's Curtains for Commons with Calabria in queue. I'm surprised $FNMA is still above $1 with everything that is now in the public domain.

I expect that to change before the end of the year. $FNMA probably finishes the year around $0.88. There's a gap around there that needs to be filled anyway.

If Calabria requires 5% capital, Commons will suffer due to the massive dilution required to raise that type of capital.

He's been pretty outspoken about this amount. If his view hasn't changed, then I would expect more downward pressure on Commons.

Sounds great for Preferreds, but not for Commons

$3B capital buffer. Receivership would be quite easy to justify with a couple of minor tweaks.

GSE's better start selling Common shares to raise their capital levels or it's Curtains for Commons.

Great summary of the GSE's outlook under Calabria. It should be a real eye-opener for the $100 ($1,000) per Common share pumper crew.

Lots of disappointment for Average Joe's on the horizon.

Courts & Warrants affect both Commons and Preferreds. Some investors want to close their eyes and pretend Warrants don't exist, but they do and they will be exercised.

Let's just hope the Government doesn't also convert the Sr. Preferreds or its Curtains for Commons.

Since exercising the Warrants creates new Common shares, it's likely a sore subject for some investors.

D.C. is a big town.

Talk of the town is reducing GSE's footprint. One way or another, future earnings (EPS) are going to be handicapped. What appears terrific now, surely won't be anywhere near that once everything is put in place.

I would expect significantly lower EPS via the proposed Utility Model. That is, without a doubt, the prevailing route the Admin is planning on taking.

Which makes Preferreds the Smarter bet to make.

Folks are smartening-up and Selling at the Ask. Smart! It will hide the Rotation better

Even with today's announcement that Otting is the leading candidate for Interim FHFA Director, and knowing he will push for Moelis, Commons can't catch a break.

You would think with the likelihood of Commons seeing $8+ under Moelis, Commons would finally start to trend upward. Sadly, they're still stuck near multi-year lows

- Simple Jeff

I'm assuming you meant overshoot to $2.50 as $FNMA is never going to see $25 over the next decade.

Otting would be great! Moelis is a lifesaver for Commons at this point. Hopefully that is the case and we can all move on to better trades as this was a hard lesson in patience and pain.

Commons could surely see a $8-10 in the next few years if Moelis gets implemented. That's a great return from these prices, but not so great for those people that bought at $3+.

But hey, greedy post-Conservatorship shareholders don't deserve a big return and everyone should be happy with what's coming.

#MOELIS!

Do you still think it will be Otting as interim Director and then Calabria as permanent Director? Then we would see Otting implement the Good Ol' Boys Club Plan (aka Moelis) as interim Director similar to what DeMarco did with the 3rd Amendment when he was the interim Director.

That would be really great news for Preferreds.

What proof do you have? Wait and see is all I can suggest. My Cousin Vinny said his hedge fund is getting ready to Short Commons into oblivion.

But coming from the guy who told you to SELL SELL SELL at $1.90 and seeing as how $FNMA is barely refraining from making multi-year lows, I will let everyone see for themselves.

#NotARecco

I wouldn't count on it. Commons are about to feel the wrath of Cousin Vinny and the Gool Ol' Boys Club.

New multi-year lows coming from Santa this year.

#HoHoHo

Completely impractical except in Average Joe Dreams. Considering Courts have upheld JPS have Contract rights, among other rights, the Companies could only "cancel JPS" via a redemption at Par Value.

There is no other way to cancel JPS besides in Receivership, which would absolutely, without a doubt, with 100% certainty Cancel Commons.

Calabria?

- Simple Jeff

Expect a reversal from the court re: Unconstitutional structure of FHFA. It will be yet another court loss for shareholders and a massive negative impact on stock price.

#MarkYourCalendar

Nice to see some realistic expectations. Whether today or in the future, shareholders getting nothing is a reasonable expectation.

Don't worry, Moelis isn't too far away. Commons will get some crumbs once the big boys are done negotiating.

- Simple Jeff

Down nearly 60% YTD will do that

Thanks Eva. Rumor is a few more are in the pipeline.

- Cousin Vinny

It's never good when your Fannie gets scrutinized. More turbulence likely ahead with lots of uncertainty heading into 2019 and likely tax-loss selling.

#GSEStrong

- Simple Jeff

FNMA Placed Under Scrutiny After -26.22% Quarterly Loss

https://stocknewsoracle.com/fannie-mae-fnma-shares-placed-under-scrutiny-after-a-26-22-quarterly-loss/

Shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA) have been tilting lower over the past 13 weeks, revealing bearish momentum for the shares, as they have dipped -26.22% over the past quarter. Looking further out we note that the shares have moved -11.68% over the past 4-weeks, -15.97% over the past half year and -59.26% over the past full year. Fannie Mae shares have moved 5.22% over the past week.

Stock market investing can sometimes become highly emotional. Being able to leave emotions out of the major investing decisions might be tricky, but it may end up being a portfolio savior down the road. Nobody wants to see a thoroughly researched stock pick underperform. Holding onto the hope that a certain stock has to bounce back may lead to later problems. Of course, it can be very hard for humans to admit when a mistake was made. Finding the ability to detach from a position can be tough. Humans make mistakes, but being able to learn from those mistakes moving forward can help with achieving long term success in the market.

Shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA) have recently come under renewed examination. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. Checking on the Relative Strength Index, the 14-day RSI is presently standing at 42.27, the 7-day is 53.44, and the 3-day is resting at 85.85.

Currently, the 14-day ADX for Fannie Mae (FNMA) is sitting at 29.26. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would support a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would identify a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would lead to an extremely strong trend. ADX is used to gauge trend strength but not trend direction. Traders often add the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of a trend.

Investors have the ability to use technical indicators when completing stock research. At the time of writing, Fannie Mae (FNMA) has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 41.74. Developed by Donald Lambert, the CCI is a versatile tool that may be used to help spot an emerging trend or provide warning of extreme conditions. In terms of Moving Averages, the 7-day is resting at 1.18. Moving averages have the ability to be used as a powerful indicator for technical stock analysis. Interested traders may be keeping an eye on the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. Williams %R is a popular technical indicator created by Larry Williams to help identify overbought and oversold situations. Fannie Mae (FNMA)’s Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R currently sits at -60. In general, if the indicator goes above -20, the stock may be considered overbought. Alternately, if the indicator goes below -80, this may point to the stock being oversold.

Averaging down on a falling knife. Not smart. They should've waited for the tax loss selling to buy more since we all know $FNMA is heading to sub-$1 soon.

- Simple Jeff

Completely agree. There are numerous potential outcomes, some favoring one class of shares over the other.

But no one here determines what path the Admin will take. We can all speculate on what the most likely scenario is, but nothing is written in stone.

Considering there's a lot of headwinds ahead for the financial markets, the Admin may have already missed its window of opportunity to do the re-IPO. In which case, the GSEs may be stuck in Conservatorship Purgatory for a lot longer than many here are anticipating.

To declare victory at this point in time is laughable. All classes of shareholders could still end up getting cancelled. As such, I have positioned myself in Preferreds knowing damn well the worst case scenario has played out for the last decade and could very well play out for the next.

Awesome, let's fly the Banner then!



We did it! $1,000 a share by Friday!

Thank you for clarifying. Investment thesis for Preferreds remains the same -- Capital Structure 101, Investing alongside the Good Ol' Boys Club, Better positioning in the event of a recapitalization favoring Preferreds over Commons, Potential for Dividends to be reinstated, Possible Liquidation, etc.

Commons Investment Thesis -- The NWS Money is being kept in a Super Secret Escrow Account, the Canadian Frog has a letter from the SEC stating the Warrants are Illegal, and the Government will do the right thing in the end. LMAO!

- Simple Jeff