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Dr. Seymour told us they are making Flucide for tox as fast as they can. That would mean using all available tools (both the old lab and, when ready, the new facility). Anything less is not making tox as fast as they can. Are you suggesting that Dr. Seymour was stretching the truth?
I'm not officially scared. I remember about 30 years ago AIDS was going to wipe us all out. Here I am, hale and hearty, and nobody in my family got AIDS, and nobody I know personally did either (I guess I don't travel in the right circles).
It's very easy for the media to freak people out with the current disease-of-the-month. The reality is that people die all the time, and eventually you will too, but most likely not in as dramatic a fashion as an Ebola victim.
Now if NNVC gets FLUCIDE to BASI this fall then we should be set.
Will NNVC use FEDEX? UPS? THE USPS?
How much will that package weigh?
How big is it?
Echo20
Nope. We are a couple of weeks into that 10 years. The new formulation of Ebolacide (the original wasn't very effective) hasn't even been tested in vitro. You can't get more "early stage" than that.
Only in the reality distortion field of the ihub NNVC forum do we see somewhat getting all excited about "drug candidates that are expected to work in spite of mutations."
Translation: "We are at the very earliest stage of drug development with something we think might work."
Folks, this happens all the time in the pharmaceutical business and 95% of the time it leads to nothing. The other 5% of the time it leads to a useful drug 10 years or more down the road.
Yup, we're supposed to believe two things:
1. NNVC is working flat out on producing Flucide for tox, using all available people and machinery to crank it out as fast as they can.
2. NNVC has ample spare capacity in both people and machinery to do a crash program on Ebola.
Yup, nothing like nepotism at the very top to give shareholders confidence in a start up that has been 3 years away from profitability for each of the past 8 years.
I don't doubt the Meet Vyas is competent at accounting and finance. But so are thousands of other people who could have been hired without being the wife of Dr. Diwan.
I wrote:
Dr. Seymour has time to promote his stock at a big conference in New York City, but doesn't have enough time to make Flucide for tox
Seymour stated they just had to ship the FLUCIDE TO BASI.
Well, my crystal ball prediction of two weeks back has proven correct -- no tox as of Monday, Sept 8, 2014.
The first shares I bought, many years ago, are now up 5%. Frankly, I'm surprised the stock price is holding up as well as it has. We're almost at the end of summer and still there's no tox in sight. I thought this would push the stock below $3. Apparently I underestimated the power of vain hopes.
Unfortunately my crystal ball can't predict stock prices. If it could, I'd be rich man. But it's time to do another tox prediction. This time I'm cranking it up to a three week prediction. Will there be tox by Monday, September 29?
I plug in the crystal ball, adjust the screen, and the result is:
No.
No tox for the next three weeks.
Damn.
You're beating a dead horse. You're the only one who thinks that's a reasonable interpretation of what I said.
The big picture is this: NNVC has been promising to get some nanoviricide through phase 1, 2, and 3 studies for years and years, and has yet to even start tox on any of them.
Is NNVC a reasonable place to invest? If you like playing the lottery, yes. The odds for this stock are still a bit better than they are for Powerball. I find it impossible to recommend this stock to others because losing my own money is one thing, being responsible for causing other people to lose their money is quite another. (Unlike most stock newsletter writers, I have a conscience.)
Look at ZincFinger. A year ago he was far more positive on this stock than I am. He also wrote more intelligently about the issues than most of the permaboosters (or permabears). He has now sold all his shares and moved onto more promising investments. All I can say is that I never had such high hopes in the first place, so they couldn't get dashed as far.
Wrong, the clear implication of my statement is that inadequate quantities of Flucide are being made for tox.
And that belief is amply justified by the fact that right now, in the second week of September, 2014 tox still has not started.
Is there anything at all Dr. Seymour can do to speed up tox? Can he run the machines at night when the regular staff has gone home? If so, he should be doing that, instead of pumping his shares.
Good question. Apparently Flucide is easy to make for tests whose detailed procedures and results are not publically revealed but hard to make for tox tests to be undertaken by a legitimate and recognized independent company.
Why should I ever believe a sentence from Dr. Seymour, especially regarding projected timelines for drug development?
I was quoting you, not me. I never made the statement I quoted.
I think Flucide is being made in little bits and drabs. I think they may be having quality control problems and have to throw many batches away. I am speculating because NNVC will give us no guidance at all other than, "we're going as fast as we can", which presumably has been true for about 8 years now.
18 months of not producing enough Flucide for tox is what make me doubtful that they'll be able to produce enough Flucide for actual use in the unlikely event the drug gets approved.
After NNVC knew that they'd need large quantities of Flucide for tox testing (which should have come as no surprise, since BK's been assuring us for years that the stuff is as practically as safe as water) we were still told that the existing lab was sufficient to make the Flucide for tox. Obviously that turned out not to be so. Now they're flailing about trying to get the process working in their new facility. So far, no kilograms of Flucide from that source either. I just think these nanoviricides are proving to be a lot harder to make than Dr. Seymour has been willing to admit.
The implication is clear: FluCide for tox is not being made.
I didn't say that, so don't put words in my mouth.
For all I know, NNVC has been making Flucide for tox for the past 18 months. But still they don't start tox. If they can't make enough Flucide for tox in so much time, what reason do we have to believe they'll ever be able to make commercial quantities of the stuff once (if ever) Flucide is approved?
When you're head of a no-profit start up your job is to sweep the floors or do anything else needed to get your company into profitability. If the only thing Dr. Seymour can do is open his mouth he should be replaced by somebody who can do that same job a whole lot cheaper.
Dr. Seymour has time to promote his stock at a big conference in New York City, but doesn't have enough time to make Flucide for tox.
I'd be ashamed to show my face in public if I were in his position, still no tox after years of promising it.
NNVC can not walk or chew gum, not even one at a time.
They can't even start tox. Year after year.
I certainly hope that Ebolacide is not NNVC's highest priority. It doesn't matter how badly the world needs a treatment for Ebola. What matters is that NNVC doesn't have one now and won't for a long time, and should be concentrating on getting Flucide out.
It's instructive to go back to posts from 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 to see how imminent tox and phase 1 were throughout all of that time. Only the diseases the 'cide was for changed -- never the unbounded, wide eyed optimism.
I agree that for Flucide the receptor that is used is probably not of concern. But in general you do have to care what the consequences may be of massively replicating receptors that cells use.
So far the only explanation I have for the seeming unending delay in getting tox started is that there are significant problems in scaling up the manufacturing, regardless of what assurances Dr. S may have. I'm not yet ready to buy into Rawnoc's assumption that tox is deliberately not being done because the whole thing is a fraud. (Not yet, but NNVC is sure trying my patience.)
A couple of months ago I spoke with a surgeon, briefly described the NanoViricides, Inc. technology and that they were going to Clinical Trials (2015).
In the description I gave I simply referred to the entity that binds to the receptor as a chemical, not a nutrient. It doesn't much matter what the functional purpose of the chemical is, so long as we assume that its binding to the receptor is of some value to the cell. Suppose some virus attacks your brain by binding to the same receptors that bind to neurotransmitters, and a 'cide is made that has these same receptors to catch the virus. Those receptors will also attach to neurotransmitters. This could deplete the neurotransmitters available to the cells, with very bad effects.
Now that example was hypothetical, and not relevant to Flucide, but the point is you can't assume that you can take any receptor on a cell, introduce billions of identical receptors that bind to the same chemicals, and not have any ill effects.
Neither me nor ZF ever claimed that nanoviricides attach to receptor points on the cell surface. You clearly do not comprehend what he or I are saying.
You don't understand me or ZF. Neither he nor I said that the nanomicelle receptors mimic virus receptors. Reread my previous post. Cells have receptors for a reason, and it's not to let viruses in.
Golly, it looks like the index fund auto-buying effect is over.
You know a company isn't making real progress when its stockholders had to resort to cheering on the artificial stimulus of being added to some index funds.
ZF is well aware of how nanovirides work. His concern is something like this:
Receptor X is used by cells to bring in needed chemical Y. Virus V also binds to receptor X. NNVC develops V-cide, which has receptors X so that virus V binds to it and dies. Now all those Y chemicals floating about bind to receptor X on the V-cide too, instead of getting into the cells.
I have no idea of how significant an issue this is, but it's not something you can dismiss out of hand. That's why we need thorough tox and phase 1 tests.
One of ZF's key issues is the fact that Theracour owns all the IP and the contract it has with NNVC keeps things that way. That's one issue that I'm pretty damn sure isn't going to be addressed. It's also unlikely that all the stockholders of Theracour will be taken off the board of NNVC to eliminate the inherent conflict of interest, another requirement of ZF.
Finally, ZF's concern about the possible negative consequences of having all those nanoviricides floating about mimicking cell receptors is something that can only be resolved with extensive tox and phase I tests, which is precisely why it's so important that NNVC get the ball rolling.
Any current predictions?
Well, ZincFinger explained why he got out, and also described the changes he'd have to see before he'd go back in. Those changes haven't happened yet, and since one of the conditions would require a change in the contractual relationship between Theracour and NNVC, they're not likely to.
Puffer doesn't post here anymore. But, yeah, it turns out that the reverse split didn't mean that tox was imminent after all.
It is useful to go back to posts a year or more ago to be reminded that back then everybody assumed that the tox promised to start by September 2013 was going to be the BASi tox study, the one the FDA needs for an IND. It was only after NNVC announced the results of the ranging tests that the boosters here insisted that that was what they meant by "starting tox".
And for years I've been told on this very board how utterly safe nanoviricides are, so it shouldn't have come as any surprise to NNVC that they'd need mass quantities of Flucide to do the kill-the-mice test. Yet the large quantities needed are always used as the excuse for why the schedules offered a year and a half ago are hopelessly unrealistic.
What about the longs who bought at 5.50 and have been in a world of pain ever since?
How do you know what price NNVC has to be before shorts can cover at a profit? Anybody who shorted this stock since the middle of June is at a small profit right now. Anybody who shorted this stock when it first got listed at $6-$7 has been at a significant profit ever since.
Is that second stage moving the rocket up or down? The stock price is back in the 3s, and I won't be surprised to see the low 3s if the start of tox remains in "Golly, we're going as fast as we can" mode.
I think BK was being sarcastic. At least I hope he was.
He can't seriously believe NNVC will be shipping Ebolacide any time soon. Those fantasies are generally reserved for the likes of nanopatent and Echo.
As for tox starting, well, I wish my crystal ball would be wrong some day, by so far it just keeps on being right.
Well, that's consistent with my interpretation of Dr. Seymour's recent statements.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105394661
Which is why I don't expect tox to start soon, for any reasonable definition of "soon".
So, nanopatent (he of the $100 a share by the end of summer prediction) is now giving us a prediction of $57 in two months max. That will be October 29. I predict the price will be closer to 5.70.
Let's see who's right.