is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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Uniformity = Protecting the Brand
Diversity = Adapting to different cultures/markets.
Success = tradeoff/compomise.
"That person" may not know what they are talking about. What is really interesting about this environment is that I say far more here than anywhere else. I was just reading an article about use/misuse of the web and the effect it may have on people, especially the young. Anonymity gives people the license say anything and not be accountable.
Point is.. I make it a practice never to make recommendations to friends or even to discuss the stock market. I love to talk about it, but I talk more here than anywhere else, because it is anonymous, hence unlimited, and uncensored (kind of).
I don't know uWink well enough, especially the technology, to say with any authority alot of the things I say. I should really read up on it more. There are lots of other stocks out there, that is all. I'm pretty sure McDonalds wants their food to taste the same everywhere and for their franchises to have the same look and feel. Can't say for fact. Maybe there are regional differences. Probably are.
The picture can be taken two ways, either that the customer (Nolan) is in charge and getting what he wants, but the more predominant impression is that the terminal is in charge of the customer! And that is not what the marketing message is if you read it. In fact, just the opposite. The way I look at it is a bit tongue-in-cheek and conveys the real intention of uWink, which is to use the power of addiction. It is almost sinister. I have thought of comparing uWink to casinos and the analogy is powerful. Controlling the last 18 inches is either about giving the customer what he wants.. or giving the customer what he wants until it becomes a powerful need... The basic power of Marketing. In any event, it may appear threatening to some, but it is eye-catching and powerful in it's own way... the sunglasses are a dead giveaway and definitely could be classified as "over the top".
All I meant is that he going to be successful no matter the economy, it will just be a question of the degree of success. I know it is bad down in the US right now. I am in the Engineering/ Project Management business, and I get calls about jobs all the time. It is a healthy market. I used to be in IT back in 2001. I got let go and man looking for work was like looking for a lake in the desert. I have had calls about jobs in the US, including California as well. When the job market tanks, we have real trouble. I think this financial thing has to unwind and the commodities market has to calm itself.
that is huge. Some Asian languages can be a real challenge.
I don't think the economy is a driver and I would not agree that franchises are being put on hold. uWink is just being patient. The economy is just a factor we all have to put up with.
What I do see is Nolan making a strategic choice about what he wants to do. There is nothing more annoying than a manager that says that he/she simply wants to do "everything". That is easy and sounds ridiculously positive. If he intends to expand by franchise/licensing he simply does not need to open more restaurants, that is all. If he intends to make money in other ways, it will not help him to open more corporate restaurants. After all, on of his KSFs is that his customers have the money to spend. His places are in two of the richest places in the world. If he can't make it there, he can't make it anywhere, so he intends to test his strength and go for the franchising/licensing. If he did build more corporate stores, that would cost money he is short on.
The way he spends that money would be different as well. If he wants to sell technology, he may hire salesmen to sell his wares. The existing shops would be great showrooms as well as showcases. It would probably differ from most franchise operations, where there is a pretty well-defined package the franchisee buys, including signage, lots of things, uniforms.. and of course the food. I know that every McDonalds is supposed to be the same everywhere, and the food is supposed to taste exactly the same. Not the case here. Not the nature of technology either. One uWink customer may want the POS order-entry technology, but not the gaming. There would probably be a core package that is mainly branding with different options in terms of technology, with both database and client (based on number of seats) options. You may not see uWink restaurants, but uWink branding on technology.
Software companies make their money in 3 main streams;
- licensing
- services
- maintenance
Licensing is big money. That is what he is after. Maintenance follows, as upgrades and add-ons follow. Maintenance is also easy money if all goes well. uWink won't be there for a number of years.
Companies either do services or they don't, usually at the expense of license revenue. uWink is a product-oriented licensing company. They will charge for services rendered, but that will not be their focus.
I am not sure if he will be successful, but I am glad he is making a choice.
One last note, if you have come this far, I actually interpreted Nolan's email addy from a message I got from I believe Nancy Nino. He returned my email. Did not have much to say, just restated that he was emphasizing licensing. I promised not to let on we were in contact.. but I guess the cat is out of the bag now....
I seem to remember Ronald Reagan being accused of not being able to comprehend more than 1-page summaries.. yet he did OK.
Stock price is somewhat Perception vs Reality and Future Revenues as currently comprehended. Both of these things are hard for people to understand and act rationally on.
I would say that uWink has the power to capture people's imaginations about the future and hence inflate the stock price beyond what is rational. Rational = Real revenue streams as justified by current contracts in hand. How the heck did the first restaurant get to 2.50? Some people were dreaming. It definitely captured people's imaginations. Nolan is being quiet and patient. But, imagine the movie. Having Leo over for a celebrity appearance, having celebs appear regularly and endorse him, the potential is there. A small example - look up a stock with the symbol ZIXI (Zix Corporation). They are in the email encryption business (a hot topic). I watched them for a year, waited for them to break even. Could resist no longer at 1.80. Sold at 3.00. Inexplicably, they went to $5.00 - $6.00. I never did figure out why. Although their revenue growth was spectacular, they never did make money. The only thing I could fathom was that somehow they got in the news. Something to do with a bill passed by Senator Kerry that they were involved with on security. Point is, there was no rational earnings-based explanation. Similar thing could.. might... happen here.
Future revenues.. well I am a bit different than most. Some people steadfastly believe in uWink and frankly know the technology better than I do. Fearlessly averaging down. I think timing is really important because it takes time for the market to fairly price things. There are unrealized opportunities and likewise overvalued stocks. Timing has played a huge role with this one. I am a skeptic when it comes to technology companies with supposedly great products. IMO they all have a great story to tell. You just have to put a filter on it. It sounds too good to be true. Software product is a really tough business. I tend to look for something out of the ordinary in some way.. and absolute killer app. or some absolute competitive advantage (de facto standard).
Most good ideas are simply combinations of existing technologies. photocopies plus phone lines = fax machines. Computers plus fax = winfax.
actually, if I had to compare uWink to something i would compare it to a casino. You would not believe the effort they put into packaging in a casino. The ambiance, the architecture. it is all an illusion. The odds are known to everyone there.. the dealers are trained to communicate the odds any chance they get. Self-help gambling addition stuff everywhere.. yet why are they such a part of American culture?
i am saying that haven never set foot in a uWink.
I know there are knockoffs.. I maintain the real draw here is the gaming, not the food.. the food and technology gets them in the door.
Got to tell you I am 50/50 on this one, Sad Bull. The current volumes (100K today?) do not make sense to me. Incidentally, to me volume today indicates a turnaround or bottom!!! I have not checked the TA yet...
Regardless. I would like to believe you, but a downtrend is just that. A downward chart is just that. Most of the time the facts are exactly as we see them.. nothing more. On the other hand, it makes sense your way as well.. because after all the timing is unfathomable. I sincerely hope that things turn out such that you have to change your nickname or "handle" here.
speaking of which.. are you trying to emulate Deep Throat here? Is it possible we could meet and talk, maybe in an underground parking garage.. do you wear a trenchcoat and speak from the shadows?
Just wanted to say Netman, you have got guts. You have steadfastly averaged down. It is hard to say whether or not you are pro/con Sad Bull, but whichever position you are taking.. you have got courage. I would say Nolan owes you a burger combo and a few free games.
unfortunately, no brands of "nbeer" are sold in the US. Just your standard Amreican dishwater. Most nbeer brands have very high alcohol content.
Pleez elaborate.
Actually I lost. Went down hard in the second set after pulling a hamstring.
so how is uWKi today?
SG&A is Indirect cost there bud. Not directly related to product. Hence the mroe restaurants you have, the greater your income. Noe it may not be that simple.. fo examnple there is some Product Developmetn COst in there. Usually that is a biggie for a technology company. How it is actually classified is different in the US and Canada under GAAP and I know is subject to debate. You could make the case that is product-related... dpeends how the company can pitch it and what thye can get away with,m what is best for tax purposes.
But when you look at it, it is OH. Keepign the lights on. Nothing to do with how many restauratns they have or how mamn burgers they sell. Not liek the burger meat or anything. And I feel is they wanted to they could like cut it in half.
Love-all. Have one for me.
I am nto correcting ym spelling mistakes tonight.
you know.. their form of franchising would be different from what one is acusomteded to./ I know that most burger places.. mayu charege like maybe 20 or 50k for a franchise, but forf that ou get a whole package... like the brand, signage, food, etc..
It seem in Nolans case that you would be able to buy this and that, nto necessarily the whole thing. His restauratns are showcases and as such can display a number of different products, not necessarily a totally defined lackage. WOuld be an interestin gmoedl........
mopdel
model.
Most software is highly customizred... differnet for each customer. not the usual thing for franchises. most franchises liek to keep it simple. do exactly what we want. they want a mcdonalds in rruissia to taste exavctly the asmq s a macdonanlds ion new york. the same everywher. would not be such the case with uWink. would be differnet eahc tiome...
kindf of interesting. goign to bed.
SG&A does not "break down" by restaurant... anyway... I just played a tennis match and hav ehad a few nbeers. I reallyliek that article byt that guy. good stuff. \ the revenue for that restaurant far outshines the associated CGA.. so serve it up.
He agrees with me on most points. SG&A actuayl seem unrelaistically high, but then hey they have money in the bank and can afford it. Th ey seem to be sized for 3 restaurants. If you look at the compnents of SG&A, none of it is partricular to one restaurant.
I wa ssimply looking at the sales numbers and the related CGA. In looking at that, the restaurant is foing great.
Even though SG@A is high, yo have to assume it is for all 3 restaurant sand won';t og through the roof.
serve, set match. bye..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29411568
Fact: first store is very profitable. 6% downtick over a year is not a concern, as it is natural that something like this would max out. The factor that it is a novelty or "new" will only last so long. Only thing is that O/H could grow, especially if they are hiding restaurant direct cost there. Multiply those numbers by 3, take into account floor space, and you have yourself a break-even operation. Optimistically, a profitable one. FIrst restaurant took 3 months to grow it's business. in a mall....
If these numbers were not pointing to break-even, I would have predicted the slide to continue and not invested. The fact that it did continue means.. either the market is really negative and I was unlucky.. or I am an idiot. Either way, do not trust me to change your fuel filter in your car. I could hurt you and/or myself.
There was some concern about slow response times at the terminals. While not a technical guru, I believe that to be totally controllable and not a function of the application. If it is client/server, it would be a function of the server chosen, which is configured for the expected load and database size. Anyway, should not be a problem.
There is no point in making pre/post stock split comparisons. This is not a reply to Dennis' post in particular, but several.
Any stock at any time is subject to a certain expectation in terms of earnings that is captured in the PE ratio. Whether before or after a Reverse Split, the expectation is the same. The stock is also subject to all of the other financial conditions of the company at any time, which is of course impacted by the R/S. I am of the belief that all that matters to investors is earnings, therefore the P/E is paramount. Right now the only use of the pre/post R/S comparison is in charting. The stock is at an all-time low and a level. That would suggest that there is a probability it will remain at this level, that is all.
uWink, on the other hand, did a R/S and had hopes of getting on the AMEX. This was justification for the split, as well as gaining capital for the purpose for expansion. They are executing on that plan more or less as stated. A little late, but not grossly late. In doing so, they picked up lots of cash, and magically ended up with about the same number of shares they started with. I often wonder if Nolan believed his own words when he came up with this, but no one can accuse him of deceiving anyone. He gave the market the facts and let the market decide. We as investors, knowing all information including financials, bought into it. No one to blame but ourselves. uWink was never dishonest. For example. the offering said that it was on a "best efforts" basis.... Just because there was talk of franchises does not mean they will materialize.
The subsequent fall suggests that many of those that bought in were not prepared to wait it out on that plan. They should have, based on future expectations and Time Value of Money. Again, their fault. We all knew it would be at least a year before the earnings picture would change. Dennis' post is simply saying that investors are not always rational, and this stock proves his point. So, it is up to investors to take advantage of that, or not.
Rawnoc made an excellent post some time back before any of this, in which he said that the expectation that the new restaurants would do well is built into the stock price, and hence it would not likely go up when they opened. He turned out to be right. I was wrong. The uptick did not happen and the speculators exited the market.
In a case like this you have to go back to fundamentals and make your own decisions. The MV restaurant will open, it will be popular with that crowd, and the business will finally be profitable or at least break-even, an in very short order. Lots of companies have had their stock bid up on expectations to an irrational level. Maybe that will happen again. Worst case it will recover to maybe the 1.50 level.
That is based on fundamentals and earnings, not hype. But we make our own decisions in a market in which investors are irrational and weird things do happen. I am frustrated by events of this week, but in looking at the fundamentals, will stay in until all 3 restaurants are up and running and doing well. I hope for a bubble, but it may or may not happen. Without there being firm plans in terms of franchises, I diversify (and get back into a regular sleep pattern). I am not going for a home run hit, just not my style. I will make somewhat of a profit, but it will not be a perfect execution on my part. It never is.
I believe this writeup on the MV location is new...
it is impressive..
http://www.uwink.com/mvca
"Death-spiral" is more than a bit gloomy. Usually when I see a death spiral, I see a company with high debt weighing them down. This company does not have that problem. The other thing I see is nothing to change the current trend or nothing going on. That is not the case either. 70% full at this point is pretty good....
Worst that could happen is that franchising does not work out.. he breaks even... stock would then slide like it was prior to any of this. then what doe she do with 4M in the bank.. there is no turning back now.
Stock price represnets nothing more than potential future earnings, there is no debt/equity ratio to worry about.
not according to our field people... can you provide pics!!
At the risk of being too bold, Dennis, when will that Silicon Valley branch be open? I agree with you the techies will be all over it.
and can you say why heavy construction has not started yet?
someone should just call Nolan up and ask for their cash back..lol..
at least it can't go below .50 (or is it .45). that is the liquidation value! After all, they have no debt.
how is the restaurant doing? this must be related to a perceived lack of performance... so how is it doing? All I know is I got generally good vibes from Woodland hills, and it took about 3 months for the restaurant to get off the ground.. not too bad, but it took time. The thing is, it was recognized as a hit immediately by the market, even if it did take time to build..
so how is it doing?
I like that 1 hour of free gaming feature. Besides the obvious fact that it gets people "hooked" on the games, it follows one of the tried-and-true marketing models. The "Awareness - Trial- Adoption" model... getting them interested by giving away a trial... the food makes them aware.. come in for a burger, you will never leave...
I don't think Stop Losses are possible on the OTC. Was thinking that this makes speculation more profitable if they drive it down first...
what is really interesting now is that the indicators are kind of mixed. The RSI indicates Oversold, as most of them do, but the Money flow Index indicates the opposite (Overbought). From what I know they more or less behave the same, except that the RSI takes into account price and the Money Flow Index takes into account Price and Volume...
could this be a deliberate attempt to lower the price? just wondering... or am i thinking too hard.
friend of mine said ARCA represents the NYSE electronic exchange. Means institutions are involved.
I believe the definition of "penny stock" is anything less than $5.00.That definition is way too broad. Price does not really have that much to do with anything anyway.
Personally, I have observed that stocks that trade on the OTC to be alot less stable (and more downward-trending) than stocks on the NASDAQ or the TSX Venture exchange in Canada. The quality of the market goes hand-in-hand with the quality of the stocks that trade on them.
Basically, if I were to search for stocks using a stock screening tool, I would:
- rank them by revenue growth
- inspect the chart
- look further at the company's business model to see if it has a winning idea or technology.
- check out financials further..
Anyway, I used to do this by selecting a market and sector first. The search tool I used has changed, so I have to find a new one... but in doing that I observed that the OTC had really poor results compared to the NASDAQ and Venture exchanges. That is more important than dollar value.
Now, to put things in perspective, most of the stocks I found in 2006-2007 have since crashed, starting last summer. Most have lost half their value since Xmas of this year. So, the above does not mean that much right now.
uWink has never fit into the above methodology really well. IT is just that the man is doing something at the present time. We will wait and see..
how come everybody is taking me so seriously today when I try to be funny.? you are not the first person..
too many TLAs (3-letter acronyms). 4-letter in this case...
is the sky falling there? what about any really big storms.. (what was that movie..when New York froze. Dennis Quaid..) natural disaster? tremors?
I was wondering what the expression "sitting on the ask" might mean... trying to interpret something of significance. can't see that as deliberately affecting the price.
"enc"?
FWIW?