CLMT closed at breakeven, in fear of substantial mkt decline causing individual stocks to fall. Also, one of my fundamental screening criteria failed miserably on CLMT, so onward to new challenges.

SPY: my call for shorting in 2-3 days at 167.0-167.5 got the price right but the event occurred too early, although there may be another chance. However, the earmarks were there for the attentive: very low trin signals unsustainably overbought, followed by CCI/stochRSI signals from the outer band where the high should be and was.

I did not add because of a position that is underwater, and I try not to add in such cases.

SPY best guess is to add shorts 167-167.50 in 2-3 days.

XLI:XLP the rotation between cyclicals and staples gives a clue into the minds of big money-managers. It looks like they believe we have had a top of some kind, just like we had a bottom when the ratio turned up.

GLD two different starting points, based on different members of same set.

SPY regressions give different answers depending on when you start them. Presumably the best place is at the center of the channel. Since CMA's cross at the center of the channel, theoretically, this graph shows the regression channel from the last crossover of the 26week set. Low end is 160 or just under at this time. Holding SDS.

SPY the so-called obv trend system went flat on violation of the "5-day" cyclic low point, but the obv value has not violated the BB 1dev channel. Trendlines on obv also have not broken, although it has been close. Given that the longterm objectives having been reached, IMHO the play is to initiate on short signals and try to find the downtrend. Stops have to be honored, but go bears. IMHO next place to short is 166-166.50

SPY: closed SSO at 80.00 and opened SDS at 39.73

SPY closing longs in SSO and opening positions in SDS

SSO

SPY bot the reversal (of sorts).

SSO added at 81.52 w/o signals. Screw it.
Oddlot

SPY buy the reversal on signals

SPY

SPY SSO long basis SPY 166.87. Stop basis SPY 164.83.

SPY SSO will buy half unit SSO if SPY hits 166.87

Oddlot

Tech/board: has anyone shorted both SDS and SSO at the same time?

SPY SSO will buy 1/2 unit SSO if SPY hits 167.13

SPY channel

SPY SDS covered bearish position, sold SDS 48.30 for tiny loss. As usual, the mkt just will not break.

SPY we now have the high TRIN, implying a good buy is coming fast.

Hey, guys!! Focus on the future and not the past. Make your posts informative and actionable.
Oddlot

Jonnytrade: I agree with your sentiment. Less BS and more trade documentation. Please note that I post thoughts on upcoming situations, actual entries, and exits. Recently, successful trade in POT, and open position in CLMT and SDS.

I will be involved in more stock positions and fewer index trades when the long awaited pullback finally occurs.

Oddlot

T: presumably the stats are different during bull mkts as compared to bear mkts. Please pick some definition of trend that is easy for you and calc stats for current status for current and past similar trends. For example, if violation of 13 week range sets the trend, then do stats on last 5 uptrend periods.

Results will be interesting.

Oddlot

Thanks. Can you post this regularly? Also, for a longer time frame in addition to YTD?
Oddlot

SPY watch for sustained high TRIN to signal oversold condition and likelihood of good short term buy/cover on CCI signals.

Oddlot

jury is still OUT!

SLV fwiw target 16-18.
Oddlot

SPY we have gotten very short term sell signals, watch the OBV trendline for confirmation. Time frame 1-2 days, target lower channel for 8day channel. Violation of that channel would indicate probable test of 33 channel.

Another short term target would be the BB512,2 boundary with violation by approx 30pts. That BB level will change from current levels, so watch it and look for violation by approx 30 pts.
Oddlot

SPY 10min 8.15day channel. Violation of channel would presumably signal a down move in the 33/65 days cycles. Upper bound of channel is close.

Oddlot

SPY 1min

SPY: look at the channel based on the 9 month cycle. Price has just pierced it, barely. RSI is in a dangerous place, particularly when price is at the top of the channel. The 11 day cycle/trendline is near 165, and would be the first trend break.

Channel, RSI, and price target 167-170 discussed previously make this a very interesting time.

SPY: 4.5yr cycle projects top near here.

Tops are notoriously hard to call, and obvious in retrospect. One of the best methods, IMHO, is the change in direction of the moving average with length equal to half of the cycle period. This change occurs at a point where price had moved halfway from one extreme to the other, and this fact allows projection of the ultimate extreme.

I have posted various targets, which have been surpassed, and have moved on to the longest cycle which I use/watch. Also, a modification of the procedure looks rational: since the volatility at tops is less than at blowoff bottoms, I am using a projection based on the centered 7 week MA as a way to eliminate the "noise" from the short term movement. To this projected high, one must add back an amount for reasonable "noise" at the top. The Detrended MA (65) daily graphic shows the historical noise and allows an estimate for current use.

The low of the 7 week CMA was approx SPY 70, and the sign change for the 2.25yr cycle (in weeks) occurred with the CMA(7) at approx 118. The difference of 48, plus 118, gives a target of 166. The graphic for DPO(65) indicates 1-2 points is reasonable, although the max was approx 4. Target becomes 167-170 SPY.

I initiated shorts with a short term horizon based on the high RSI, but the longer term potential is definitely there.

Oddlot





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SDS took bearish position afterhours at SDS 38.44

XLI:XLP 30min 33day cycle

CLMT in LT uptrend, recovering from oversold short term. Undervalued. Holding long.

TRIN vs SPY entries

Sector Watch: XLF XLE XLI XLI:XLP

CLMT long 35.67.
Oddlot

POT closing at mkt