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That was a 'falling knife'! Looking for a break of the lower line.
4godnwv,
Perhaps the market is looking at higher oil prices, higher interest rates, an end to tax rebates, a possible Kerry win, the Iraqi situation, the entire Middle East situation, the housing bubble, the tech market bubble, the good ole 'sale in May and go away' idea, etc etc. LOL!
QQQ may now challenge the $37.29 high see the ascending channel on 5 min chart. I now realize that yesterday at approx. 2:30 EDT would have been a good time to cover my short position. But then again, I didn't think that consumer confidence would be so strong.
QQQ bulls are weak. IMHO this rally will fail. A break of the 75 SMA ($36.65) should confirm this.
OK , 1 min chart with a last minute upside break out from a descending channel.
LMAO, U all will want me to go back into hibernation!
I created a chart list with just one chart in it.
One more time. That last chart is 30 min. with an ascending channel! Lets see if this one is the 5 min. Try placing the curser over the chart box and right click. Next right click 'view image'. Disregard any old notes.
Link to QQQ 5 min chart.
The neckline was broken to the upside after the bell, however there is still resistance at $37.00. QQQ closed at $36.94. After hours close was $36.96 with a high of $36.99.
I've been holding this short position since last Thursday when the RSI reached 70 and the ADX green line turned down from above the 30 line. unfortunately the market provided me a 'head fake' and continued to move up. I've read that this was caused by program trading via institutions, not sure of that but sounds right. One can see a divergence between the RSI and price starting last Thursday and going thru Friday. This morning the two began to move together, down that is. I had a chance to break even today (including com.) but choose to stay short based on the way the QQQ market had traded and the break down of the ascending triangle. The market action that occurred after the close, when the price went from $36.84 to $36.94, was probably a large short covering at the bell. I guess we will see tomorrow morning. June futures are down .50 as I type.
This is not exactly a perfect head and shoulders but close enough in my opinion. Please let me know if the link does not work, thanks.
OFC, try clicking the boxes. May be that will help.
Also on the QQQ 5 min chart, there appears to be a head and shoulders with the neck line at approx. $36.85. I plan to keep my short position open for now.
4-Year Cycles and Their Warning Signs
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1464.htm
In regards to taxes,
I found this site http://fairmark.com/ after searching for information on 'wash sale'. Click the 'Capital Gains' button to the left.
Also ordered and received the book 'Capital Gains,Minimal Taxes'. I'm in the process of reading the book and feel that it will make a big difference in my understanding (and complying with) tax law as it applies to trading.
The following interviews are available to non-subscribers:
1.Jim Puplava, and Ike Iossif, interview Clyde Kendzierski, Managing Director for
Financial Solutions Group
in Orange, CA who talks about the impact of marginally higher interest rates on
real estate, and on the
overall economy.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/AOTT/pg1.htm
2.Robert Balan , is neutral on equities, bearish on the dollar.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Balan/pg1.htm
3.Joe Sunderman, Director Of Trading for S.I.R. Inc., is short-term bullish,
intermediate term bearish.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/SIR/pg3.htm
4.David Aloyan , explains why he remains bearish on the bond market.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Aloyan/pg1.htm
5.Jerry Favors, expects weakness in the short-term, to be followed by a
resumption of the rally.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Favors/pg1.htm
6.John Odonnell, talks about the use of ETFs in creating spreads.
visit:
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Odonnell/pg1.htm
In the last two weeks,
Bob Brinker has talked about "Guns and Butter". Here is an article I found with a google search.
Guns, Butter And the Deficit
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4209185/
Bloomberg Radio
http://www.bloomberg.com/media/radio/listen.html
OECD Says U.S. Growth Under Threat
2:27 pm PST, 15 April 2004
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says the robust growth that the US economy is enjoying is under threat.
The OECD forecasts the American economy will expand by 4.5 percent this year but is expected to cool off next year.
It says the recovery is broad-based, but OECD spokeperson, Peter Jarrett, says the debt run up by the U.S. government could undermine its future.
The organisation is also concerned about the large amount of imports into America, which are not balanced by exports.
When Americans buy more goods than they sell, dollars flow out of the country and can end up being sold in favour of other currencies.
This in turn pushes the U.S. dollar down and interest rates up.
In short, the OECD says America needs more taxes and savings, and less spending.
The American budget deficit is also worrying the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF says the global economic recovery is moving ahead and has again warned about its record budget deficit.
The deficit is expected to top US$500 billion this year.
The IMF suggests Washington should take advantage of current economic growth to raise taxes, otherwise the deficit could impact growth in other countries.
http://www.7am.com/cgi-bin/catwire.cgi?BUSINESS_1000_2004041501.htm
00_buck, thanks for the great 'heads up' post. EOM
Snooping around,
I found this index with lots of educational material.
http://www.tradertalk.net/tutorial/
Th'ks for the PP, OFC. e/
Information on Pivot Points.
http://www.tradertalk.com/tutorial/Pivpt.html
About Bovines
DEMOCRAT
You have two cows.
Your neighbor has none.
You feel guilty for being successful.
Barbara Streisand sings for you.
REPUBLICAN
You have two cows.
Your neighbor has none.
So?
SOCIALIST
You have two cows.
The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.
You form a cooperative to tell him how to manage his cow.
COMMUNIST
You have two cows.
The government seizes both and provides you with milk.
You wait in line for hours to get it.
It is expensive and sour.
CAPITALISM, AMERICAN STYLE
You have two cows.
You sell one, buy a bull, and build a herd of cows.
DEMOCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE
You have two cows.
The government taxes you to the point you have to sell
both to support A man in a foreign country who has only
one cow, which was a gift from your government.
BUREAUCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE You have two cows.
The government takes them both, shoots one, milks the
other, pays you For the milk, and then pours the milk
down the drain.
AMERICAN CORPORATION
you have two cows.
You sell one, lease it back to yourself and do an IPO
on the 2nd one.
You force the two cows to produce the milk of four cows.
You are Surprised when one cow drops dead. You spin an announcement to the
analysts stating you have downsized and Are reducing expenses. your stock
goes up.
FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike because you want three cows.
You go to lunch and drink wine.
Life is good.
JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an
ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. They learn to travel on
unbelievably crowded trains. Most are at the top of their class at cow school.
GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You engineer them so they are all blond, drink lots of
beer, give excellent quality milk, and run a hundred
miles an hour. Unfortunately they also demand 13
weeks of vacation per year.
ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows but you don't know where they are.
While ambling around, you see a beautiful woman.
You break for lunch.
Life is good.
RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have some vodka.
You count them and learn you have five cows.
You have some more vodka.
You count them again and learn you have 42 cows.
The Mafia shows up and takes over however many
cows you really have.
TALIBAN CORPORATION
You have all the cows in Afghanistan, which are two.
You don't milk them because you cannot touch any
creature's private parts. Then you kill them and claim
a US bomb blew them up while they were in The hospital.
IRAQI CORPORATION
You have two cows.
They go into hiding.
They send radio tapes of their mooing.
POLISH CORPORATION
You have two bulls.
Employees are regularly maimed and killed attempting to milk them.
FLORIDA CORPORATION
You have a black cow and a brown cow.
Everyone votes for the best looking one.
Some of the people who like the brown one best, vote
for the black one. Some people vote for both. Some
people vote for neither.
Some people can't figure out how to vote at all.
Finally, a bunch of guys from out-of-state tell you which is the
best-looking cow.
NEW YORK CORPORATION
You have fifteen million cows.
You have to choose which one will be the leader of
the herd, so you Pick some fat cow from Arkansas
CALIFORNIA CORPORATION
You have millions of cows.
Most are illegals.
You don't fix the fence and now you have more cows.
You go broke trying to feed them.
Not sure who created the following guide lines but they do make sense.
1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing
more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to
ruin!
2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and
be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket
or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important
and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums
of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital .
4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to
sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what
price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2
cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.
5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we
can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it
is a lesson learned too late by far too many.
6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,"
according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns
and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show
the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into
the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we
need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than
shall lesser ones.
8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent
new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of
watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually
very important.
9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and
aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading
poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even
the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading;
accept it.
10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a
technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a
trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do,
then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.
11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal
days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish
forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even
more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.
12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed
confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take
prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the
market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as
we are about to give up hope that they shall not.
14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an
understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human
errors and also making super-human insights.
15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness
in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as
the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions
are to be added on retracements.
16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are
their retracements.
17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing
trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing
if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and
our profits are large.
18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of
all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's
wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.
19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a
market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are
to be bought; new lows sold.
20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if
it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which
the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty
five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted
by our friend, Tom Powell.
22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how
infrequently this rule may be invoked!
Not sure who created the following guide lines but they do make sense.
1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing
more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to
ruin!
2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and
be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket
or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important
and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums
of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital .
4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to
sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what
price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2
cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.
5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we
can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it
is a lesson learned too late by far too many.
6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,"
according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns
and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show
the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into
the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we
need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than
shall lesser ones.
8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent
new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of
watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually
very important.
9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and
aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading
poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even
the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading;
accept it.
10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a
technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a
trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do,
then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.
11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal
days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish
forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even
more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.
12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed
confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take
prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the
market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as
we are about to give up hope that they shall not.
14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an
understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human
errors and also making super-human insights.
15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness
in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as
the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions
are to be added on retracements.
16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are
their retracements.
17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing
trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing
if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and
our profits are large.
18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of
all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's
wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.
19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a
market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are
to be bought; new lows sold.
20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if
it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which
the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty
five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted
by our friend, Tom Powell.
22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how
infrequently this rule may be invoked!
Amateur Investors Weekly Market Analysis Newsletter
http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Feb_14_04.htm
Profit_Ace, Thank You. GLTU, EOM.
I have a question regarding options.
Does the following sentence mean that one would have the right to buy MANU shares at $7.50 per share upto the option experation date in April 04? For example I buy this right on 100 shares for $185 + commission. If the stock price falls below $7.50 and stays there past the experation date, then I lose all monies invested. On the other hand if the stock moves up to $15.00 and I exercise the option to buy I would have close to a 100% gain on paper and the option to sale.
-- Manugistics Group Inc. MANU
Last Price 8.82 - APR 7.50 CALL OPTION@ $1.85 -> 7.6 % Return assigned*
Here is the link http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:MANU&Feed=PR&Date=20040120&...
Thanks in advance.
LT , yes as a group or schrol through ten (10) at a time looking for TA buy signals. I now use 50 SMA, 20 SMA, 10 EMA, standard BB, 6 month daily candle chart, ADX, RSI, PPO, MACD-Histgram and CMF. All on the same chart. These chart settings are also used in the 10 minute 5 day time frame. I also use a three (3) year, daily candle chart with 50 SMA for a bigger picture of support and resistance.
LT, 'eventful' means 'you're going to love it!' :)
LT, the charts are live for an extra fee. If you are a full time trader then buy the real time for the 10 min intraday charts. http://stockcharts.com/corp/membership/services.html
If you decide to make another 'eventful' investment in your trading, let me know. I will explain in detail the approach that I'm taking to short term position trade. Up 4.2% this year. I will also share the list of stocks that I review for ideas (770 stocks).
Tomorrow I will look to take long positions in DECK, GPRO, BWS, CVH, PLL and RCI.
Current positions are ADVP, DCOM, ELAB, LCAV, LEND, LSCP and TTEK. I may dump DCOM and TTEK to make room for new stocks.
Short ideas (no positions yet) CRUS, ERTS, LEXR, PAYX, SCHN, SNDX, AMAT and DELL.
LT, thank you. Do you have stockcharts.com EXTRA service?
LT , great, take notes. EOM
I like the following NASDAQ stocks for swing trades on a TA basis.
LSCP, TTEK, DCOM AND IMPC
Based on this article,
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/15/markets/earnings/index.htm
I created a small stock list.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID712356
I hope this helps, to some degree, in determining market direction.
Be and all,
Hope everyone had a very nice Christmas season, I did.
I've been busy with a thought that chichi2 gave me last year, that is to use the IBD (Investors Business Daily) for stock ideas. I now have stockcharts.com EXTRA, as you may already know. What I've done is create separate portfolios for the NASDAQ and the NYSE with stocks that have a smartselect rating greater than 89. I used the December 30th issue of IBD and plan to create new portfolios each month. From A to Z, 320 stocks on the NASDAQ and 360 stocks on the NYSE. I screen these each night and then create a porfolio containing the results. Sounds like a lot of work but EXTRA makes it reletively easy to schrol through 10 stocks at a time looking for indicators at certain points. I look for the MACD Histogram bear columns to be reducing in size and at the zero line, next I look at the ADX for a low black line and then at the BB for constriction which could preceed a breakout. I also look at volume, money flow and stochastic location.
I've been trading this way for the last seven (7) days and still making adjustments(up $500 on paper). I'm keeping the number of shares bought low ie 50 at $50 or 100 at $25 etc. After I get the trade confirmation, I put in a 2% stop loss. The next day I will move the stop loss up to provide for a 'break even' sale point encluding commission. I have noticed a problem with slipage but it seems to happen during both buy and sale so maybe it evens out in the long run. My three best picks to date are ALTR, SSNC and PANL. I plan to hold all stocks untill they either fall back to the stop loss or find a higher support point where I will average up.
Here are the six (6) best looking NASDAQ stocks for tomorrow. Please note that I have not looked at fundamentals yet, just TA.
GPRO, LEND, LNCE, MTMD, NVEC and PTRY.
I use 'landscape' for chart size, six (6) month daily candle with standard BB, 50 and 20 SMA, 10 EMA, ADX, PPO, Slow Stoch, MACD Histogram and CMF Money Flow.
To all new or old traders, IMHO, please do your self a big favor and subscribe to stockcharts.com EXTRA. I really belive and hope that it will make a difference in your trading results. Good Luck to all and Good Night.
Congratulations, Be. EOM
Thanks chichi2 and Dimension for your comments and feed back. I see that in the Monday 22nd issue of IBD, 'B' section, we have the 'IBD 100' I will work on building a chart list of these stocks to scan for favorite trending indicators. Now, that should keep me busy. :)
Hello Dimension hope you and your loved ones are doing fine this holiday season. I have graduated from the 'stone age' and now have the EXTRA service.
Even though the ADX line looks posed for an upturn, I would be more comfortable with a long position if the green directional line (buyers) was closer to 15 like it was in early August. This condition gave the rally fuel to run. We don't see that here which goes along with your typing 'The negatives...it seems we are getting overbought...which actually lends support to the idea of a breakout, but not a long lasting one..' I agree.
The BB are tightening and the MACD bars are on the bullish side. One can see recent bullish MACD buy signals around October 27th and December 15th. The bears were getting weaker. On the other hand the bulls have been getting weaker also which resulted in a trading range. I will make a chart with 'trading range' indicators later tonight. Both the OBV and the A/D are positive with the OBV 20 MA moving up. A/D looks flat to slight rise.
For me to take a low risk long position I would want to see the Green directional line much lower but still above the red directional line and then see the ADX line rising. This confirmed with rising positive OBV and A/D. The MACD would need to be bearish but ticking up for fuel. Good Luck with your trading next year, ED.
OK , I'm on a roll now!
Here are my ideas on AMAT. I will wait for right side of 'M' double top to occur.
OK, heres the chart...
Lets try this again,
I like A as a long position. The ideal point to go long would be when the MACD ticks up from a second more shallow bottom. Once the trade is made, place a protective stop just below the second group's lowest price. Note: The second group I type about has not been formed yet. I will wait for this to occur and look at other stocks if it doesn't.
[-chart-]stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=a,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!c10!d20,2!f][vc60][ill14!lg20!lf!lah12,26,9][j22414358,y]&r=3295[-/chart-]
Just a thought...
As I use stockcharts.com EXTRA, I can't help but think of the old adage 'Penny wise - Pound foolish'. I should have been using this service a long time ago. But I didn't want to spend the money ($94 for 7 months) when I could get charts for free. Instead I lost thousands in the market because I was missing a tool that could quickly evaluate charts using TA indicators that I had read about. Looking at charts was so time consuming that I would generally just look at a few, pick one and then, well you already know the story.
I just took 20 minutes to review the list of stocks chichi2 emailed us using my chart settings. I found seventeen (17) in which the ADX line is under both the green and red directional lines. I created a watch list for this type of condition and added applicable stocks from other lists, including the N52WH. I found one short candidate, MCD.
So what's the point here? Do yourself a big favor and subscribe to stockcharts.com EXTRA service. If I didn't think it would help you in both areas of education and trading stocks for a profit I wouldn't have spent the time typing this post. Ed