Weeklyoptionplays
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if you see a sudden spike like 50 cents )
we will be back to 5.7 by noon
may be 1,2m sells hit by institutional investors.
Couple of Imaginary Scenarios
================================
Scenario 1
1)Confirmation news that Google has given lowball offer say 350M and VRNG is negotiating for more. Then immediate estimates of pos for 350M settlement will arise and price will move towards that direction.may be it can be $10 over next 3,4 days we sill couple of 25% up days.
2)Google cannot offer more, News comes out talks in stalemate, towards trail. price falls
3)Both parties cannot come to decision. Trail is only decisive action. Market will re-assess situation and price might either go up or fall down a bit while trail continues. at this point any rumours or news from jury will move the price either up/down.
4)Trail starts VRNG wins case awarded multi billon settlement. Price will reach 50+
Scenario-2
1)By end of day 1 google offers buy out.offered amt is Good one with POS is only $15. Again market will catch up to reach the estimated price in next couple of days to $10.
2)VRINGO trying hard for make it work as settlement or raise the buyout offer
3) vringo asks more.settlement talks continue.
4)Here VRINGO Legal team has to show thier tactics to move this frm buyout to settlement
5)Google says yes for settlement and ready to pay only 380M half of what vringo asked and also imposes restrictions not to touch google customers.
6)VRNG says we want 600m and more royalties
7)goes to trail. judge awards 500m and .5% royalties and vringo cannot go after google customers.price goes to $35
Scenario 3
1)Google does not offer any offer or buy out and brings out secret weapon which vringo didnt expect.
2)Vringo stance is softened, willing to take low ball offer or buyout.
3)Google rejects any offer or buyout. Google has upper hand.
4)vringo buys some time reverys back strongly. now google offers preliminary offer as there is no way out.
5)finally vringo accepts reasonable settlement. price $15.
Either they consider 1b is peanuts they dont care, or they have some hidden weapon that suprises vringo's legal team, hope vringo have thought the settlement/trail in all angles.
funny post
I have asked my wife, if suddenly i am rich by 500k what would we do with it? LOL. she just reverted back you can do what ever you want to, i am just going crazy thinking abt this.
I am checking my smart phone checking vrng price, my freind/colleague scolded me what ever your doing is for having food, so i should have my lunch first.
its obvious VRNG is making people nuts, wild dreams, lots of pressure, sleepness nights, fear everything mixed. THATS VRNG for you folks till next week.
if there is no news till market close tomorrow there will be no sell off tomorrow during daytime. may be after hours price will go down and next day it will open 1$ down.
There are 2 ways to see about todays patent breach case on ZTE. Either they are expecting Google case will go to trail and to make a point vrnga have lots of other valid cases they did launch the petition 1 day before the settlement meet, so tht the price drop after the news will not be significant.
other thing incase of buy out offer from google they can make a point nokia patents are worth a ton, so that higher price per stock is offered.
I dont think we will hear settlement news from Google that easy. May be we will have to wait for long time.
i brought back in half of my position. Pre market i can add few more tomorrow. But how do we know there wont be any big dump tomorrow, i mean 10M shares will be in those institutional investors accounts tomorrow morning. What they are going to do with them tomorrow, sell 50% and ride rest? I can utilise that sell off to buy back other half.
50% means 5M sells tomorrow.
$6 open tomorrow?
got back at lower price than my sell price today.
thats what if the stock has some momemtum they will do it in blocks, or else iam thinking they will sell big chunks like 2million sells once
tomorrow will be interesting as to when the 10M sells will be spaced out, will they release them in chunks or big blocks. these institutional investors want to get good price too.
Thats true, its always good to take some profits off and enter little lower price.
took profits from last week positions. will take another position eod
For Investors 500M settlement is better than $10-$15 buy out.
We dont know how many more companies get sued by vrng. with each news vrng will go up.
How do you know for sure judge makes the parties meet everyday till next monday before it goes to trail.
$6+ close will be great.may be 25m+ volume with less sell volume.
Does anyone know how fast/slow the settlement/trail process happens in UK on ZTE patent breach??
Hope they lodged it in fasted processing UK court?? LOL
$6 today and $7 tomorrow.
Rainmaker your contradicting your own posts. So you do believe this is going towards settlement, since your talking abt royalties?? then whats the matter dude or you on short side,at what price may be its $4 i guess.lol
lol i laughed loud seeing your post.
just gathering some more thoughts after settlement news hits that would be 1 unique experience.
I guess no one knows the exact new asdjusted price so all orders will be market orders we can see 20-30% drop within minutes from new price since a lot of ppl want to realise profits at the same time and want to reenter later time. That would be obsolute madness at that time.i hope the fall will not be that drastic like 50%.
any thoughts how other stocks behaved after settlement news with news adjusted price(15x or 5x).
will there will be any new buys or only profit taking?
So will there be any trading halt and new adjusted price gets reflected in bid/ask.
Any one with Microsoft/vitrx(not sure of ticker)experience give some details how the price change happened for vitrx.
If VRNG gaps up and goes higher significantly by the time the settlement verdict comes out as expected, what ever the multiplier is lets say 5x multiper will that be applied to current pos as of when the news is out??
Huge Volume coming in Monday/Tuesday. Buckle up..
steve responded to my pm. He is very confident of settlement. He is telling $12 estimate is given by James Altucher incase of a buyout.
October 6 at 10:26am
When is the settlement going to happen. when is the fat check coming.
SteveKimLaw October 6 at 2:
You'll probably know before me! Hang in there, Steve
10M Shares to be dumped on Tuesday?
$45M worth of shares which are sold to Institutional Investors are due to be sold on Tuesday. Does it mean we are going to Have 10M sells hitting VRNG at a time for a big drop on Tuesday?
Any idea when this 10M shares are going to hit the market.
I guess these investors will sell half of the 10M shares(5M) before the news is out. I dont think they will risk 10M shares till the end.
but its good if you keep 5k into put options which will protect 40k incase of $2-$3 scenario. If vrng goes to $15-$35 it should be couple of yr savings into our pockets.
iAM thinking put call will save us, 50-80k into 1 stock is not a small thing.
is anyone there in this board who invested over 50k in vrng and if so what are your exit plans and what leverage you have done??
Folks i have a question. I want to buy some options to protect the downside risk vrng might have.
I have put 80k into longs sofar, which option will offset the risk incase if this stocks tanks to $3 or $2
Shall i buy put option to $2 with 10k.if any one can tell me which option call, will equate the 80k risk i will intiate the position monday. much appreciate anyone who shares the info.
I never did options before i am planning to take advanced classes in options.
But unfortunately he has plenty of followers if they join longs they can swallow couple of millions VRNG and drive price up to $8 in anticipation of settlement. I have seen him influencing stocks like BAC which has heavy float in billions, which takes lot of effort to move that pig. when cramer says buy BAC moves 30cents lol.
If VRNG can move to $7 or $8 in anticipation of settlement or trial,ppl who want to take risk will stay on and ppl who joined in for gains can either stay with thier vrng gains, everyone is happy lol.
Thanks for the detailed post JJ. member mark to you.
JJ i invested 80k in VRNG. I am long, i am just trying to think in all angles, since we are investing so much into this. If things go wrong next week i am planning to exit with minimum loss.
I guess AH close is 4.77, i am not too worried at this point with todays pos down.
If things works out good and VRNG trades at $30 plus this will be life changing trade for me.
With that much money its more easy to make money in my next trades. If we are trading with 40k capital we dont get much gains, only the brokers get all the transaction fees lol.
Very true. Brokers get rich if you are playing with 5k or 10k.
You will make money if you are playing atleast with 100k.You can make 20k if you do good with 100k.
Another story mentioned '5 unnamed existing institutional investors'. http://bit.ly/OajKx0
My theory is that these 5 investors are the owners themselves. They currently own a minority share, and are thus vulnerable to buyout. If they sell more shares to themselves, they dilute the overall shareholder value, but I believe the 10.3M shares would put the owners at or above 50% ownership. So, they put themselves in a "position of strength" as the talks commence by having control over the company to resist a buyout, which may benefit shareholders for the option to go after other defendants. I am long(er) VRNG.
if POS is rising while the trail is going on,investors will happily wait dreaming bigg $$ ,if it is other way i dont think ppl will stick on with VRNG.
How many of the investors are willing to be tied with VRNG if GOOGLE decides to drag the trail i mean if it happens to be years??
Instead its good for everyone if VRNG accepts any reasonable offer and everyone can move on with thier lifes in short period no frills no waiting times
Best thing to happen for VRNG investors is VRNG to accept any reasonable buy out offer or settlement from Google unless they have a back up buy out option from other Microsoft/Apple/Yahoo or any reasonable mid size company.
I hope this will not end bitter for many investors out there. If this works out in a modest settlement say 150M or 200M this could be life changing trade/investment for many investors, instead of saying No to low ball offer from GOOGLE and ending up with no money at all.
Any offer that can give VRNG POS $8-$12 is good enough instead of dreaming big settlement big POS increase to $35 or $70 or $140.if we can get atleast 100% gain from VRNG we can play other stocks in future and we may get many other opportunities as these. Hope investors dont loose their shirts on this one.
Hope something positive works out for investors in weekend and we gap up on monday morning. Lets all benefit from this one.
Google looses small amount say 150M, VRNG gets rich by 150M(very conservative) and shareholders gets 100% rise pos. all good everyone is happy. Happy ending to the story.