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The battle may be tough, but PPHM seems to be building up a wave of momemtum. It seems to have washed away, at least temporarily, the usual suspects. How refreshing.
Paul
Could PPHM be reaching critical mass? Perhaps PPHM has finally shown up on the radar screens of a larger group of investors. Institutional investors?
Paul
Let's discuss today's news. The launching of the independent investigators program represents a bold statement by management. To me it says they have strong confidence that Bavi and Cotara are the real deal. They are unafraid of independent examination.
I am not so much concerned about the terms of the poison pill, as I am excited that PPHM might be valuable enough for it to be a concern.
Paul
Well said Geo and Mr. Rocket. I like the science of PPHM, I like the management, and I like our chances of exceeding $7.50 per share - my personal break even price. If I didn't like PPHM's prospects, I would just take my tax loss and never look back on PPHM.
Paul
Fascinating. LOL.
Let's not neglect Avid's announcement of their growing relationship with Halozyme. Kind of hard to spin this anything but confirmation of Avid as a glowing commercial success.
A very good day for longs. Perhaps Moby can explain how this news fits in with his oft-repeated assertion that PPHM management is doing such a poor job.
Paul
Pumpers? I don't see no stinking pumpers! I do see occasional posts expressing exuberance not substantially supported by logical argument. However, any holder of PPHM stock can surely be forgiven for such enthusuastic expressions. Why impute evil intentions to such posters by labeling them pumpers?
I for one would like to see more enthusiasm on this board to buoy my spirits through this inevitably deliberate stage as PPHM's struggles to establish the anti-PS therapy platform.
Paul
Those of us who hold shares in PPHM obviously focus on the facts that lead us to believe that a profitable future is more likely than not. Those who do not share our perceptions are certainly entitled to their opinion. As one who has held a position in PPHM dating back to the Techniclone days, I like to think my perspective has been formed by a close continuous monitoring of the company. I have certainly seen many PPHM ups and downs.
I read you post and did not see anything I was not aware of or that in any way changes my assessment of management's performance over the last few years. It also did not alter my expectation that PPHM's management will lead the company to success if Bavi and anti-PS have the goods to successfully treat either solid tumor cancers or any single significant viral disease.
All the above represent my humble and, I believe informed, optimistic opinion.
Wishing the best to all PPHM longs.
Paul
Shareholder friendly management will bring Bavi and the anti-PS therapies to market either on its own or via partnerships. I see every indication that PPHM management is skillfully doing just that. At the risk of being labeled a pumper, PPHM has:
1. Brought Avid to the point of profitablity without sacrificing the value it represents as an inhouse provider of Bavi, Cotara, etc.
It did not sell it in whole or in part for a quick expensive infusion of cash, as some on this board have suggested.
2. Brought in a lucrative government contract that is reducing the burn rate, validating the anti-PS technology and subsidizing the research that will be needed for eventual, we hope, commercialization.
3. Continued to press forward clinical trials so aggressively as to stage them in europe and India. Trials which have shown great promise.
4. Brought us through a reverse split without sending PPHM into a tailspin, as many here have predicted.
Any management can be criticized. However, in my humble view and in view of the above, PPHM managment has done a remarkably shareholder friendly job over the last several years. The SP is not good yet, but the prospects for a gratifying gain look very promising to me.
Paul
I see no reason to react so strongly. First, PPHM is the beneficiary of the research as regards anti-PS therapy. The MOA of Bavi is clarified in how it binds to monocytes. I had not seen this before. More broadly, this research validates the power and safety profile of the anti-PS approach. These are good things, right?
The real driver for PPHM has to be the clinical trials. If they pan out, PPHM will be able to get the financing to carry the ball a long way towards the goal post - improved health for very sick patients and fatter account balances for the long suffering PPHM investors.
I don't think we can expect Haynes et all to abandon their search for a vaccine that will put them in the history books next to Jonas Salk.
Paul
I recall Bavi had a strong affect on CMV. The below article discusses how nasty CMV can be. I hope PPHM can find funding to pursue Bavi-CMV research.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100401143112.htm
I see that PPHM is presenting use of Bavi for optical imaging of tumors at the AACR. Could this represent a significant commercial application of Bavi?
Paul
As long as our white knight keeps "painting the close" for us, we might night drop below $3. If we go to $2.70 without bad news, I think I'd feel really tempted to add to my irresponsibly large(for me) holdings.
Paul
Not exactly meaningful volume, is it? Business as usual waiting for significant developments.
IMO
Paul
NSCLC was one of Avastin's first approved applications. King and company are very excited by the initial Phase 2 results from India. Presumably, this is the head to head comparison that PPHM wants. To me this is amazing. If Bavi upstages Avastin in this major application, it will be the biggest upset since David took out Goliath.
Our pathetic little David seems eager to go after Goliath on his home turf. OK, this does seem improbable. That's why this long can't wait to see the clinical trials run their course. It's also why I don't find the "going concern" clause on financials that big a deal as long as PPHM management can shepherd Bavi through these next NSCLC trials.
PPHM may go out, but it will be on a very exciting stage. Of course, if Avid can ramp it up another notch or two, PPHM may prosper even if Bavi flames out.
Paul
It's nice to see that we are back to worrying about pipes. After a year or two of worrying about how a reverse split would destroy shareholder value, it nice to go back to this good old boogie man.
Actually, PPHM management has successfully avoided the pipe route for years. In my admittedly humble opinion the decreased burn rate obviates the need for pipe financing.
Admittedly, the going concern issue is still with us. However, in view of the very considerable progress PPHM has made over the last two years, PPHM's prospects for moving significantly past such concerns are vastly improved.
I find it difficult to worry about anything to do with PPHM except trial results. If the clinical trials come in well, issues like pipes and going concern statements will disappear in our rear view mirrors.
Paul
Thanks, Golfho. Your post was clearly a lot of work. It is refreshing to see someone who takes the time to seriously quantify the possible payoff from Bavi.
Keep your left arm straight and let your turn release the club head, don't overwork those hands!
Paul
It looks like PPHM management thinks they can take Cotara and Bavi to commercial development on their own. I know the cynics might say they are just perpetuating their overpaid jobs. I don't agree with that perception. Based on my too many years of listening to ccs for this company and observing managements behavior, I have to feel that they truly believe they have a commercial winner in Cotara and very big winner in Bavi anti-cancer.
I find it heartening that management has such strong confidence it Bavi and that they will not sell it cheaply.
Paul
Somebody is placing a bet on the quarterly results. I hope they know something we don't.
Paul
Rather than listen to the usual telling of the PPHM story, I can wait to hear something worth listening to from Mr. King and company during the conference call later this week.
Paul
Why does the share price spike at the end of so many trading days? It appears some agency is at work to prop up the closing price. I like it, but I don't trust what I don't understand. Who would do it? And why would they do it?
Paul
Could the below be Bavi-related:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100215130341.htm
In the many years I have held PPHM I don't ever remember such a stream of buys by Swartz. It can't be a bad thing.
Paul
As they say in bridge, let's review the bidding:
1. Greatly reduced burn rate.
2. Lucrative government contract, which may lead to early approval under animal rule and subsequent government stockpiling of Bav. Additional government contracts are being pursued.
3. Promising trial commencing this year with a relatively short time frame for NSCLC, which could lead to accelerated FDA approval.
4. Rapidly growing AVID revenue.
5. AVID looking into Biosimilars for even greater revenue prospects.
6. Expanded management team with proven leaders.
7. Cotara trial next year which may lead to accelerated FDA approval for GBM.
Short term prospects for the share price, who knows. From my ten year perspective on PPHM, medium to long term prospects have never looked anywhere near this promising.
I'm lovin it.
Paul
I would also note on Slide 8 PPHM shows the partnering impulse is alive and well at PPHM.
Paul
I missed the first part of King's presentation, but I didn't hear anything new. Just business plan execution, steady progress.
He indicated they hoped to run a Cotara trial in 2011 that could lead to accelerated approval.
They plan to initiate about 5 new clincial trials before the end of 2010. I saw a chart that included an entry for a prostate cancer trial. As a 60 year old male, I certainly wish PPHM good luck on this one.
Once again, he emphasized the hope for accelerated approval based on the expected NSCLC trial.
There was a smattering of applause after the presentation - sounded like 5-10 people.
I was disappointed that no one posed any questions in the Q and A segment. King offered to answer any questions privately.
Once the archived version is available, I'll listen to the whole thing.
Paul
It does seem like an easy way to reduce the cost of snapping up PPHM. However, doesn't this assume that our mystery manipulator won't have to compete with other buyers?
If the NSCLC trial shows blow out results, the competition to gobble up PPHM should still be gratifying.
Paul
For those of us who like PPHM's prospects and would like to add to our positions, how low is the PPS likely to get before the meteoric upward move we hope to see over the next year or two? I am only interested in the opinions of those who expect PPHM to break through to profitability.
Thanks,
Paul
Skating on thin ice. Every quarter that PPHM has no setbacks, the ice gets just a little bit thicker. Only a few more quarters and we will finally know whether we longs have made a really cool choice or not.
Happy skating,
Paul
P.S.No update on my brother's GBM. If you say prayers, please say one for Steve.
My brother was just operated on for a tumor that is now identified as a GBM. I hope Cotara can get approved soon enough to save him, but after following PPHM for quite a while it's hard to believe he will last long enough to benefit.
For the thousands of GBM victims like my brother, Cotara can't become available soon enough.
Paul
Well said, FF. This is the kind of development posters here have called for for years. Let's hope the discussions bear fruit, and also that they become the pattern for future deals.
Paul
Thanks, mojojojo. I bet PPHM management expects to go the AA route. If so, maybe PPHM will be able sell out for big money sooner than most of us expected.
Paul
Cogently reasoned.
The two recent large up moves indicate someone or several someones also find your reasoning compelling.
Let's just see what happens.
Paul
Somebody wanted in badly enough to take the price up 12%. Let's hope whoever did it knows more than we do.
Happy New Year.
Paul
Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. We've seen this a lot lately, any idea what this pattern could mean?
Paul
To take a loss on your 2009 return, you must sell on or before December 31, 2009. You may not repurchase for at least 30 days to avoid the "wash sale" provisions of the IRC.
So, we may expect a January-February bump from sellers who wish to re-establish their positions.
Paul
I'm beginning to think Avid may be the tail that wags the dog. If they can continue to grow revenue at the current torrid pace, maybe someday Avid could spin off the legacy portion of PPHM as non-core business.
Stranger things have happened.
Merry Christmas/Solstice,
Paul
Why do you care if he posts? Any reader with half a brain can quickly determine how useful his posts are.
I haven't read his "contributions" for months. I suggest you do the same.
Paul
I am encouraged by what I heard, and I am looking forward to the next weeks, months and yes years of progress. As King said, the time line for what he described as an "astronomic" increase in PPHM's valued is 30 months. I can wait.
I am shocked to read so many posters found the CC disappointing. ROTFLMAO! The usual chorus of negative poster response was predictable. They could have been written before the CC; maybe they were.
Paul
Those posters who some have theorized are here to encourage the unwary stockholders to dump their shares cheaply have not put in an appearance today. This is unprecedented!
This can only mean one thing. PPHM is about to be purchased by their employers.
You never know, do you?
Paul