is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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ok.
"Earned credibility" = staying in and being down when the stock falls?
What about predicting it will go down and getting out?
Seems to add alot of credibility to me.
i can't post my stock picking methodology because it is off-topic under the TOU, as the Moderators have treated it before. Do you want to know, as well as all of my top picks that resulted from it?
last time I used it was Xmas last year. Resulted in one pick. Lean times.
No I don't. I can't really say why as there is no logical explanation. I look at other boards for stocks I am interested in and take note, sometimes post things, but not to this extent. I think that:
- I find uWink an interesting company with great potential (based on chart history).
- it is an interesting business. Pure technology can be boring.
- the quality of the posters here is higher than on other boards.
- it is an understandable business that is easy to follow for the average guy.
If you are wondering whether or not I like to bash losers, the answer is no. I can give you a short list of losers I know:
-IQ AirIQ
-VIS Visiphor
-MTM MItec Telecom
- LYT Lyrtech.. (I am in this one)
I don't bother to spend time bashing them... and I am not tryin gto bash uWink, just studying it.
Well if you want to take it as venom, that is up to you and you can ignore me if you want. I am really trying to help people and learn. My negatives are really just one opinion. I think it takes some courage to admit when you are wrong or when you are not entirely sure.
Anyway I am just trying to help/contribute. My strengths come from looking at a few hundred stocks and pick the best ones, not in knowing every detail of one stock. Hence my perspective on uWink.
Since the trend of this stock has been down ever since I started posting here... well I think skepticism and negative views are warranted. It is too bad you feel otherwise.
Anyway, I am trying to help. Best of luck.
did you look up EMN8 yet? do you see them as moving forward in a way that uWInk isn't? Why would you even bother trying to respond to me when all you have to do is type a simple search phrase into Google to find out that my rumor is perfectly accurate and relevant to uWink?
To simply repeat facts from company publications is useless. Anybody can repeat company publications. To attempt to form opinions and question those stated facts us useful to everybody, as that is the only way a buying/selling decision is made. If I just believed every fact I read, I would be a sheep.
- I predicted that uWink would fall from it's high of 5.00 after the R/S. It did.
- I predicted that it would fall sharply after the latest financials. It did.
- I predicted that uWKI would go up after the opening of HH. I was wrong, incidentally.
None of those things were posted in company financials or statements anywhere as fact. That makes me a pretty compelling poster.
What is really interesting here is that no opinion can be proven. I am the first to admit that my predictions are guesses at best. I admit to myself on a regular basis that I don't know what will happen and take that into account. It also makes it easy for pro-uWink posters to question anything anybody says who is the slightest bit negative, because it can't be proven. Far too easy. However, questioning published facts and making Buy/Sell decisions is the only way to make money. That is what I am here for.
Of course if you simply wish to believe that uWink will someday prevail and make you rich, I can't dispute that and am not going to try. You also conveniently avoid having an opinion or making a decision other than to Average Down.
So if you feel that way, by all means average down.
after all of your posts... you need a rubber hose and some gas.
I understand tech pretty well Netman, which means I know how to tell the difference between a winner and a company that is putting the best face on a bad situation.They have a cash problem that will have it's effect and outcome long before these products come to market.
As for your posts, what so we have? statements taken from their financial statements which are clearly wishful thinking? Agreements supposedly about the franchises in Florida which turn out to be bogus? Thoughts on a selloff blaming some institutional investor when in fact it is just a good old-fashioned plain dump?
If you can't be objective with these guys.. you will not be able to see what else is out there.
the other thing is, Netman, you look at any software vendor's chart, unless they get big deals continually and become profitable.. it is downward.,, losing money? ==> downward. uWink.. losing money ? ==> downward,, timing is critical and it is tough to pick 'em.. so if you think a vendor like EMN8 is irrelevant with their Jack in the Box implementation.. good luck to you!
The only advantage uWink has (and it is a big one) is multiple revenue streams (revenue-generating restaurants). I don't see them (meaning I don't observe them consciously..) capitalizing on it.
It is not Jack in the Box that is relevant Net, it is the vendor that successfully sold them that software. uWink is in direct competition with them.... in the area of POS. Maybe not gaming, but definitely POS systems... if you look at their web site it is similar to uWink in many ways.. That vendor is very relevant to uWink.
as for the rest of it.. I have worked in the software business and i know how long it takes to get product out the door, as well as the effort to sell it.. so let's wait and see then..
It is not of immediate interest. The only thing that really matters to me is what is going to happen in the next quarter. These are all on the drawing board. It will take maybe a year for this to materialize. The challenges that the company faces, which are primarily financial, must be solved in the near future before this would be relevant.
Every software vendor has great brochures and glossy product literature. What is behind it and the bigger picture is what counts.
That company EMN8 for example has product in the field, lots of it. It is focussed and successful.
Anyway, it is interesting. Thanks!
well, I used the term beta site, which means exactly the same thing. Not sure how it is obvious... not sure how someone with no prior knowledge would find it.
uWink Air! I actually was not that far off... lol.
What exactly is the purpose of this web site? Is it a beta site, soon to be the new uWink site? Seems like it is covering all of the products that they may currently have underdevelopment.
With a development staff of only 4-5 (based on their R&D expenses) these are big promises. Let's hope they don't run out of money before they can sell something tangible. Wish that SG&A had more tangible results.
If they sized down somewhat, they would have a real competitive advantage with the restaurant as a base.
that company EMN8 looks to be a serious competitor to uWink the software vendor though. That system could easily be modified to do beer or anything.
interesting perspective. I am out and doing much better. Being in and down does get me down... Anyway, I can't think of too manytimes I have been down and it has turned out well.
Glad you are doing well.
One good reason why you should read my posts is that it may give you good ideas for doing research that would take you less time that it takes to argue with me.
I typed in "Jack in The Box touch screens" into Google and came up with this:
http://www.allbusiness.com/food-beverage/restaurants-food-service-restaurants-fast/10554542-1.html
hmmm, seems like uWink has some serious competition. I would think the EMN8 company has a strong product, with product in the field.. and inroads with a major chain. Pretty good for a bunch of barf.
Better yet:
http://www.emn8.com/
My rumor came off of the Yahoo board. No, I did not really pursue it, but it is still good information. I don't care as much as I used to because I am not in, but I still enjoy posting here.
uWink is not my usual thing, actually quite a departure. Normally I use a stock-picking methodology that would not select uWink. But, I still enjoy following it, and post here with helpful information when I can. My methodology has helped me to get out of uWink with profit in the past and recently the foresight to get out again..
How are you doing?
Yes, don't know why it came up. But, maybe that means that .50 is a good bottom and it would be good to buy in on another dip if it happens. This stock has done this before (pre-split).. climbed up slowly on low volume then crashed sharply. When it crashes it really goes. Got to be careful.
My comment about Jack in the Box was just a rumor over on yahoo, nothing more.
apparently Jack In The Box has touch screens for ordering with pics of food and debit cards..
is everybody bored today.. messaged out?
OOOOHHH LOLOL ROFLMAO... I had no idea. She runs the place.. now I know who is in charge..
The poster (Mr. Water) is right.... you are saying if they allow A/P to rack up they can hoard cash? so what you are recommending is that they play some credit game?
On Yahoo some poster was saying that they have 2.2M in Working Capital. That is a good meaningful number. ST Assets - ST Liabilities.
If they allow themselves to become insolvent the bank will shut them down quickly... ie. Demand Letter.. pay up.
October makes more sense..
not sure if you are being serious or not.. maybe I am missing something?
what is Nancy's role there anyway? She is not on Management page.
My basis for analysis would be that the software business would contribute no revenue. I/we have no idea whether there are any deals pending or not. I would rather investigate how long they can survive without such deals. This makes the problem crystal clear; they are in a situation where they need a deal and pretty quickly. IMO this was not necessary, they could easily have gone on much longer with 3 restaurants.
anyway, that would be my basis... statement was that they had enough cash on had for 12 months to survive as a restaurant business in their current form. did the italics work?
Yes I was going to say.. did not understand Raw's statement of 3.2 M + A/P.. maybe A/R?
Anyway, I will pursue said analysis over this coming Long Weekend... is it only for you Longs?.. haha.. I hear there is a Short weekend coming up..
anyway, other thing that comes to mind.. I would guess someone like Nancy would say nothing other than the party line. The only person that may know of an impending problem is the CFO. But really what else can you expect her to say? If she says something does that not mean leaking inside information? It would affect the stock price for sure and the public image of the company. If she is repeating what is in financial statements.. she is safe and covered.
Would be a good idea if I shared such spreadsheet with Raw and he can do with it what he likes in terms of communication with members of this board. I would communicate with uWink directly however, if I chose to do so and share my findings while maintaining some confidentiality/trust with uWink.
The only thing which I or any investor can rely on is their own research. Their statement of 12 mo. is BS. I have seen this enough times. Leaders believe leadership = being positive. Often they go over the top and are not realistic.
I will do a proforma myself and am happy to share it with anyone here or Nancy Nino that will show they have a cash problem.
Well, I see your point of view. Yes I agree if a uWink "franchise" is actually a combination of a franchise plus a uWink license.. yes that is hugely profitable.
Point is, this does not seem to have worked, most likely because it is just too expensive. I know they are quoting 1.6M in capital on the website. Now I know why. I don't know much about the finances of franchising, but maybe what has happened is the potential franchisees have looked at the economics of it and it just does not work for them. Remember a franchise is not really a technological thing. It is a brand thing, a convenience thing, an experience, whatever. Technology serves to support those things, technology is not the franchise. Anyway, after 2 years of trying, it seems to not have worked. The other thing that is perhaps hurting them is their financial vulnerability. Does not transmit the right message to people about to fork over 1.6M. Clearly, if franchising had worked, they would have grown as per the original plan with no problems, as franchises fund more corporate stores.
So I believe uWink has said they are going to emphasize "franchising/licensing" to use their exact words. OK, I think we can modify that to read "licensing". The franchise dude is flotsam and/or jetsam in the new company and should be replaced by a Director of Sales. Licensing gives them the flexibility to provide customers with exactly what they want, without having to conform to the confines of a "franchise" concept. Mr. franchise may be deeply experienced in the art of franchising, but he will not fit in with this and may not be highly technological.
Probably the use of the phrase "franchising/licensing" is to soften the blow of the strategic shift. Franchising and licensing are actually two different things. uWink tried to combine them together, and it did not work. Hence the "showcase" concept.
It disappoints me that they did not choose to control their cost to survive within a 3-restaurant operation, as I see no reason why they could not do this. I also see money spent in the wrong areas, with no emphasis on the R&D staff.
As a result, I think the only way now to play this is to let the cards fall over this next quarter, and then look for a low after the deck gets reshuffled.
I assume you are being serious... why is that so outlandish? I don't know how the mechanics would work, but I don't see it as that outrageous...
OK. Never knew that... that is why I am here.
Maybe I am wrong Raw. Was not aware that the company had to buy all of the technology as well. Honestly never thought about it. Is that included in the 1.6M/ franchise of capital cost?
There is a Technology Licensing fee of 2%, now my assumption is that that was in place of a Maintenance agreement, so that makes sense then. If the Technology Fee only covers the ongoing cost of maintaining the software, then there must be a cost to get the hardware/software in the first place... maybe you are right.
If that is the case, then a uWink franshise is really really expensive!!! Makes it more likely that a large company with means could expand it.
Good post.
This company is a B-school business case in the making. Thinking strategically, they have 2 options:
1. be a restaurant company with cool technology that some people may want to buy.
2. be a technology company with revenue-generating restaurants to sustain them in lean times.
Of the two, I like (1). The profitability of the restaurants is not in question. Take that model and duplicate across the US and you have something. Unfortunately, now they can't do that. They have no money. Someone else could..
So they have chosen Option (2), but executed poorly, IMO because they let them selves get into a position where they are suddenly financially strapped. Big salaries, stock option expenses, etc.
Possible outcomes for (2):
1. they magically sell licenses and everything works out OK.
2. they lower their costs and live within their means.
3. They continue as is and fade to oblivion. (can't go bankrupt as they have no debt, odd)..
4. They raise more capital and keep on going.
Of these, I like (2). Unfortunately, I just have not seen companies do that. IMO (1) is difficult. btw, a sales cycle in the s/w business (from time of first call to closed deal) takes 6 months. And if they attract the attention of a major player... lookout. They ae underfunded and have just a small development staff. (4) may be helpful temporarily, but if nothing else is done, will just be a temporary fix.
Overall, I liked the package of technology plus restaurants (Strategic Option #1). In thinking about it, I think that was their best option. They have abandoned it. All of the scenarios in the second option (licensing), except for success as a vendor, will lead to a lower share price. Cost-cutting will lower the price, because even if it rationally means that things are better, cost-cutting has costs like severances and so on that add one-time costs and are just not popular. Raising capital will lead to dilution, but may also prop up the price temporarily.
I would like to see them cut their cost and subsist on the 3 restaurants. Count on the share price to fall lots before then. Then, they become a vendor with revenue-producing restaurants, a movie about the owner and founder, and who knows... so bottom-feed, let things unfold and bottom-feed... wait until things resolve themsleves, which will be soon.
Still another possibility, what if an other entity takes them over and pursues Strategy Option (1) above of the restaurant thing? If you are bottom-feeding, that could very well be the outcome. Investors will profit from that. So, wait it out.
As an example of another company facing similar issues, check out AZD (TSX). Azure Dynamics. They are a Michigan-based automotive company that builds hybrid drivetrains. They sell to fleets, where gas costs are a huge issue. They have been getting deals, but delivering for .. NEGATIVE GROSS MARGIN .. lol. Result is they are losing gobs of money. Stock was recently down at .17. Well, they just announced a Private Placement by a pension fund. This will give them 8-9 mo. The PP happened at .25. Stock is up marginally. Now, if they get a volume deal.. imagine the possibilities. Could be a huge profit. uWink likewise if they stabilize with 3 restaurants and focus on selling, could do the same. Then it depends on how good their product is, and how well they can deal with the competition. Difficult question.
The frachase dude would be the first to go. He is wasting his time there. The agreement that was posted here some time back is IMO only good in large deployments (large numbers of franchises) becaue the Royalty (4%) is puny. THey need a large expansion to make it work. Licensing is different than franchising in this way as the contracts are for larger $.
yup totally. When I first started I did not know what to do and how to go about doing my own research. All I had to do was apply knowledge (financial) and experience (technology) that I already had. Until then I actually did things based on junk emails received (pump and dump schemes), reading the newspaper, doing what my friends did (that was a big one, lol) etc..
Of what he is saying IMO the most important thing is what he calls Competitive Advantage. I have found the most powerful stocks have an intuitive, qualitative strength (competitive advantage) that is not in the numbers.
btw... now is a horrible time in the market for technology for any stock, IMO.
I agree with what you are saying about selling if it goes down and then being able to buy back later. I am not sure about the "averaging up" part of it (buy more if it goes up). Once I am up I like to just let it sit (Let Your Profits Run). Don't mess with it.
One thing I keep in mind is buying /selling at different Price Points. When buying, always hold something back in case it goes lower...
Anyway, I broke my rules with UWKI too, and lost part of my previous profits. I put way more in at the 1.30-1,50 level than I should have. Played it wrong.. oh well I am still ahead overall. Thinking back, it was a reasonable proposition, just did not work, that is all.
that is a really interesting quote. I think what he is referring to is the fact that prices are affected by overall market conditions such that rational investing does not work. Buy-and-hold investing does not work.
Right now, because of the credit crises, etc... stocks are priced very low, and that is not rational based on their performance. So the rational investor, who maybe bought over the last few years when things were up, is getting screwed unfairly. In fact, what they did was quite rational. Market right now is similar to 2003-2004 (downward). However, earnings is generally good... with some exceptions. In technology, thee has been so sign of a real slowdown in earnings because of lack or corporate spending that I have seen.
hence pessimism is a good environment to do business in = buy low in times like right now.
optimism = the enemy = don't be a sheep and just buy when market euphoria strikes. Notice oil starting to crash.
technology = next big bubble, commodities and energy winding down.
I would be interested in his opinion on averaging down. If you can publish it that would be great.
Actually, tjat is a godo point. I am not correcting my spelling mistakes tonigth wither.
Just came from the pub. after a tennis party. I hate it when the waitress rhymes off a list of all the availbel nbeer and you gorfet it all. I just get he sdtop to stop at somethign I like and then I grab it. Stella.... !!!
Nbeer is the perfect applicaiton for the self-serve system. Except pictures owuld be useless. It all looks the same.
Serve it up.
I should do a proforma. It is not difficult.
Assumption:
- 3 mo. per restaurant to build the business to it's peak..
and same as my previous post on same topic.
Correct! It is almost impossible to pick the absolute bottom of anything.