says, "Companies that trade on the OTCBB will require Cash/Cheque. "
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Is this bottom as solid as the one at $1.20?
Better ask Uranium... he's the chartist.
Are we ready for Tax Loss selling season?
Predictions:
FY 2021 Revenue $625,000 Losses ($2,200,000)
The full year figure is contingent on 3Q coming in at -0- revenue, like 2Q did, but that seems a fair bet.
Meager mirror sales in 4Q (< 250 units), as they can't quite figure out how to get a product certified, manufactured and shipped for sale this year. What a long strange 4 year trip it has been.
For those really wanting shares, I'd wait to pick them up around 60 cents, as tax loss selling hits high gear. Under 60 cents, there's no advantage to the PIPE holders selling. Under 66 cents, there's no advantage to the warrant holder selling (roughly 200K five year warrants at 66 cents).
Would I be a buyer at 60 cents? No. You go ahead if you like. Good chance it'll pop from there (January effect) as tax loss sellers pile back in after 30 days.
Fundamentally, I think the stock is worth under 15 cents, so I won't be picking up the 'bargain' shares.
Wild Card Prediction: Capstone ditches Thailand and moves final assembly to Mexico, causing another disruption in the time line.
Oops, bad math.
15,000 shares are only about 0.6% of the PIPE shares, not 1%
Hey, Brother! Can you spare an FCC-ID for the mirror.
CAPC says they got final FCC certification on 10/13/2021. I'd like to know the FCC ID for the mirror, so I can look it up on fcc.gov.
I want to take a look at the internals.
In somewhat related news, I'm lowering my 2021 CAPC revenue forecast to $625,000 on fewer 2021 mirror sales.
Operational losses increased to $2,200,000.
I'll need to update this when we get 3Q results mid-Nov. There's always the possibility they managed to sell some old LED stock in 3Q. That would obviously change my year-end numbers.
When you change the design, you need a new certification.
They changed the design; the first design was an abject failure, not getting to market for even 1 sale.
Covid didn't cause the product failure. Covid was blamed for the delay, though.
https://fccid.io/2ABNT-CAP001M
Certification issued 12/19/2019. Testing started 11/30/2019.
The CAPC Smart Mirror got FCC approval on 12/19/2019. Do you need a link?
How did Covid stop Wallach from selling since Christmas 2019? That's almost 2 years ago, before Covid.
The mirror launched at the January 2019 CES show. Why did it take 11 months to get FCC certification? Covid? Nope.
What delayed the Smart Mirror 2 years? Why weren't they shipping in 2019?
The Covid excuse is hollow and false.
The company claimed in March 2021 that the new design was submitted for FCC certification. Do you need a link?
When we finally get the FCC cert, when do you suppose it will show the testing actually started? My guess, September 2021. Your guess?
Wallach used Covid to cover up CAPC's failure to timely launch the Smart mirror for 4 years.
To me, that is shameful. I won't be silenced.
Wallach uses Covid as an excuse. I will continue to call him out on that.
Do you have a different definition of 'conservative'?
8 to 12 bucks per share?
For a 'smart' mirror company that forgot to add a mic and a Voice Assistant to their re-design?
I say that's absurd. $1.40 is absurd enough.
We only need wait until mid May to find out how absurd, right?
Or, will this whole thing get pushed out to second quarter? Wallach Loves to Delay.
Maybe he can blame Covid-22
$10/share would give this company a half a $billion$ market cap.
What kind of P/S ratio are you proposing is reasonable?
During their best performing year, 2017, the P/S ratio varied between 0.25 and 0.94, if I recall correctly.
Current P/S ratio average for all Russell 2000 stocks is 1.04.
No. Not at least 800
I set 800 as the possible max. I expect fewer sold.
What's your prediction, Mike? Did you find that microphone yet? LoL
Yes. Wait and See.
What is it now, 1Q2022 before we can decide the mirror is a flop? Mid May when we get the results?
Excellent. Carry on.
You really like the straw man, don't you?
They need 800 mirrors sold to reach $1 million in sales for 2021. That would put their Price to Sales ratio about 72.
That's an absurd valuation. Fewer sales than 800 mean an even more absurd P/S ratio.
What's your 2021 Revenue number, Mike?
To replace 2017's $37 million revenue, they'd have to sell 52,800 mirrors. Does 800 still sound like a lot to you?
The shorts are the PIPE investors, RVD.
They don't even know this website exists. Selling short to hedge their 60 cent shares was the correct move.
The mirror is going to flop like STP tools and My Secret Diary and Capstone Power Control bulb and Simply Comfort Foam pillows.
When the shorts cover, it'll be with their de-legended PIPE shares.
CAPC has been wasting time on the mirror for 4 years. They silently ditched their first design. I've got a good idea why. Underpowered, and the wifi would have sucked. Bad RF design.
As you've seen, I'm not sanguine about their second effort.
Let's see how the chips fall. Good Luck to you, RVD, there's honesty behind your posts.
Also on that page is a disclaimer that the website uses old information from 2019/2020 - the old mirror design that was scrapped.
*That* mirror had a mic. *That* mirror had Google's Voice Assistant.
*That* mirror design had FCC certification, granted on 12/19/2019 (Yes, before they started blaming Covid for delays).
*That* mirror design was quietly dropped around the beginning of 2021.
Ask Mike privately; he'll tell you about the lack of the mic on the new mirror design.
800 is High??
Remember they were supposed to have 3000 mirrors built, ready to ship by 9/30/2021. What happened to that boast from the company?
Again, I don't think they'll sell 800; but that's what they need to get to $1 million in Revenue, $2 million in Losses.
I use Alexa. I was a beta tester for the original Echo design back in 2014.
I'll buy the Echo Show 15. It's vastly superior to CAPC's dumb mirror (the one you can't talk to).
What mic?
You have the mirror. Can you take a picture of the mic? Because the website excludes any mention of a microphone.
The description of Smart 1 mode doesn't mention any voice input. Why is that?
One million dollars in Revenue. 1Q was $438K
2Q was -0-.
I'm assuming 3Q was -0- as well; the only unknown is did they find some old LED lighting stock to eBay for $.
So, to reach $1 million in sales for the year, they'd have to sell something like 800 mirrors through 12/31/2021.
$2 million in net losses. Wallach & Co. have to eat! :)
No microphone. No Voice Assistant (despite the claim on capstoneconnected.com)
Not very Smart.
No Sale.
Thoughts about putting your mirror in the bathroom: No LED lighting (like the 'old' design. No defog feature (like many bathroom mirrors for sale on Amazon.com, and a nice feature). No Voice assistant, so input will require you touching the mirror. Wash your hands first! Then dry them completely before tapping the display!
Seems like a bad idea to put one in the bathroom, but that's just me.
Sticking with my $1 million sales, $2 million in losses for 2021. This 'Smart' mirror won't set the market on fire, my opinion.
Looking forward to the excuses that we need to wait for 1Q2022 results for 'real' sales figures. Mid-May.
LOL
So, you're saying the Mirror has no Voice Assistant on it.
Not even a microphone?
That seems to be a glaring smart product deficiency.
Thanks for confirming.
I believe CAPC needs to be more forthcoming about this lack of function; the earlier failed model (launched at January 2019 CES, and re-launched at January 2020 CES) had a microphone, and had Google's assistant built in.
There will be confusion, and returned product. CAPC should get ahead of this and be honest about what the Mirror can and can not do. There is still ad copy out there that leads people to believe they can just talk to the mirror.
Mike,
Since you have the mirror for beta testing, what Voice Assistant is installed? What version of Android? Have you gotten any security updates since getting the mirror?
Can you provide a video that shows you asking the mirror about today's weather (or other innocuous data point)? I'm not asking you to cast your phone to the mirror, and ask your phone's voice assistant, by the way. I don't see people leaving their phone tethered wirelessly to the mirror all day.
Looking forward to your post.
Looks like management steps up again.
As they've stated several times in SEC filings, CAPC is currently not credit-worthy.
Loans from officers/directors is pretty much 'last resort'. The other option is more share sales to private investors.
Speaking of that, what happened to the $1.5 million they raised in April?
Looking at the quarterlies, they probably spent ~$450K on mirror parts that shows up in pre-paid expenses in 2Q. Where did the other $million$ go?
SG&A? Kind of ironic there's no S to cover that expense.
Should be an interesting 3Q 10Q to dig through.
Oh, and the bit about 5% being a good deal? Yeah, for the lenders. That's about 500x what I earn on my savings account.
Who wouldn't lend secured money at that rate?
No, it ascended on hot air alone.
It's currently settling back down to reality. Back to back quarters of -0- revenue will do that to a meme stock.
Should get a pop when FCC.gov gets updated. Be prepared to sell the news, because the short-comings of the magic mirror design will be confirmed in black and white.
But we all know the real value is 50x what it’s trading.
Do we? It's already trading 25 to 70 times sales. Can you find one other company with that kind of metric?
When fundamentals matter, this stock will be decimated. I hope you're only playing with meme money, because this is a promoted meme stock.
Those are fun as long as the party music is playing. Financials are like a morning after hangover.
Keep the Tylenol handy.
CAPC is currently trading about 25 times sales, based on 2020 revenue.
When 2021 comes in at $1 million (my estimate), it will be trading about 70 times sales.
CAPC has no P/E ratio; it was last profitable in 2017, making losses since then.
Can you come up with some comparable companies trading at 25 to 70 times sales?
If there has been manipulation, it's clearly to the upside, not down.
Again, the short position is the April PIPE sellers locking in their profits before they can get their legends removed (available since Oct. 5th). My opinion, but it makes reasonable sense.
A lot more reasonable than a retail investor putting up $2.50 in margin to sell a $1.40 stock.
Edit: Average Price/Sales for Russell 2000 stocks is 1.04 times.
It's not a start up
as much as you want it to be.
I'm expecting the share price to trend down towards the 60 cent PIPE EOY.
However, this is a Meme stock, so predicting future share price is very hard to do. It went 100x on hot air alone. Fundamental valuation is out of whack. Ultimately, fundamentals will rule. It might be mid May before we have a clear picture of the mirror business.
As long as volume stays low, this thing is pretty illiquid and subject to manipulation.
I think you'll find those shorts are the April PIPE investors.
Who wouldn't hedge their 60 cent shares at $2 and $1.60 and $1.40 and $1.20?
It's the smart move, given the 6 month delay (when they invested in April, the word was 'Mirrors shipping by end of April').
Here we are in October, and still no shipments. The best outlook we have now is 'mirrors will ship in Q4'.
Any mirrors that ship for revenue this quarter will likely have to be by Air. The boat won't make it in time.
Let's hear that rallying cry, '2022 will be Our Time to Shine! (like a mirror)'
The only desperation I see on the message boards is a bunch of stock promoters, trying to keep the share price elevated beyond all reasonable fundamental values.
The PIPE holders should thank the promoters for this opportunity to make mad cash.
PIPE shares are eligible to have their legends removed to become freely tradeable (since Oct. 5th). Watch for it.
Edit: I see the company has stopped mentioning Amazon.
Exactly, Mike
They walked away from $37 million annual sales of LED lighting products (4 years ago) and spent 4 years to get to this point. Frittered away a real business for a Magic Mirror on the Wall.
What do they have to show for it? Back to back quarters of ZERO revenue. A 2021 where they might do $1 million in revenue. Total. For the year.
That's just Bad Management.
Mirror, Mirror, on the wall (or propped up against the wall on the floor), who's the Floppiest of them All?
Wallach!
They won't post 2021 results until end of March, possibly mid April
That's a long time to wait to find out they've laid another STP Tools or Secret Diary. Or Simply Comfort Foam Pillow.
Capstone is not a start up; they have a solid history of failed new product launches. Management has not changed in 15 years.
New traders ignore that at their peril.
By the way, I didn't ask about share price, I asked how much revenue would CAPC would book in 2021.
They succeeded at selling LED lighting products, especially around the holidays. They walked away from that business for the Mirror.
Can Stewart look himself in the Mirror with how he's handled this change in business direction?
"Pay No Attention to that Crappy Product behind the Curtain!"
Well said, U.
What's your estimate for 2021 revenue and profit (losses)? Less than 2.5 months to go.
Mine:
$1 million Revenue
$2 million Loss
I may be overestimating what they can do in the time left this year.
https://fccid.io/2ABNT-CAP001M
There's a wealth of information in that link about the 8 inch tablet.
It was a component of the original mirror design, and got FCC certification on 12/19/2019.
It's a low end android tablet. 2GB memory, 2GHz only wifi. It was low end 2 years ago.
Back then, the documents noted there were multiple models anticipated, delineated by different color options. Since the tablet was designed to plug into the back of the wall mounted mirror, it's clear they anticipated selling the tablet separately.
I'll give you my opinion when the FCC actually certifies the product and posts the testing information.
I'll ask you again for your FY2021 revenue and losses estimates, kind sir.
I see you still haven't figured out how to mount that mirror. Do you need help with that, or don't you see yourself using the mirror long term?
That tablet was part of the original mirror design
It got FCC certification on 12/19/2019. I've posted about it on this board before.
It's a cheap low end, old Android device. It is underpowered; they still have some videos on their website showing clunky performance when scrolling the screen.
It may be a move to get some revenue in the near term; they possibly have inventory of it from 2019. Why not push it into the market?
I'm not expecting the new mirror design to show much revenue at all in the 4th quarter, based on their latest PR. Any mirrors that get sold before the end of the year will have to be air-shipped; the boat takes about 8 weeks from Bangkok to Miami.
Still calling for $1 million in Revenue for 2021 and $2 million in losses for the year. We're still 5+ months away from getting that 10K.