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Dew, I have to admit I am really perplexed. I had set $3.00 as a low target, so I obviously missed the severity of the downturn here. Do you see anything sinister here or, like I presently believe, we simply have an oversupply of shares and little demand. Thanks
Added @3.04 and 2.98 Happy to be here.
This entire aspect of treatment for HBV is about as clear as mud to me. Combinations and their implications etc. Hope the RMF has a layman's summary of this important aspect of IDIX stock. Thanks
Buying more here, $3.18
LOL, a prophet! You must be very rich.
fully dilluted shares closer to 100M
The story/price ratio couln't possibly get much larger, IMO.
Wow, so our drug, approved by the FDA and in 44 countries is worth only $24M? Am I losing my mind or just my money?
$1.49 - Oops, I wish - 3.49 is what I paid.
I will try. Picked up shares at $1.49 today. Tax selling is part of it IMO. People tend to think that tax selling only has one season but I think gains need to be offset at various times for various reasons. Anyway, in a bull market like this, the "losers" get sold in proportion. JMO.
I will try. Picked up shares at $1.49 today. Tax selling is part of it IMO. People tend to think that tax selling only has one season but I think gains need to be offset at various times for various reasons. Anyway, in a bull market like this, the "losers" get sold in proportion. JMO.
Please add "contributed by Tyzeka" in prior post. Thanks
Thanks to all for the debate here re. Tyzeka uptake. Since there seems to be at least 2 equations in play here, namely the percentage of the HBV market Tyzeka will capture over time and the increase in the incidence of HBV diagnosis, it would be very helpful to have the LOW END end resolution of these as to the positive cash flow contributed by Tyzeka for IDIX going forward. 2007, 8, 9, 10 etc. Probably asking too much, but thanks in advance to anyone who would give it a shot.
Thanks to all for the debate here re. Tyzeka uptake. Since there seems to be at least 2 equations in play here, namely the percentage of the HBV market Tyzeka will capture over time and the increase in the incidence of HBV diagnosis, it would be very helpful to have the LOW END end resolution of these as to the positive cash flow for IDIX going forward. 2007, 8, 9, 10 etc. Probably asking too much, but thanks in advance to anyone who would give it a shot.
Not to argue, but I have a difficult time believing that low price is an inducement not to prescribe. It doesn't make sense and I can almost guarantee you that the opposite is true. Perhaps time is required for doctors to become more aware.....
>>Ergo I would assume that it "does not match" the competition in the efficacy/convenience/side-effects paradigm - otherwise it would not carry the stigma of the disount. <<
What about the safety and efficacy data from the trials? Is it invalid?
If expenses for NM283 were being covered by NVS, then will shutdown also cost IDIX zero?
God knows we don't need any more "comedy" here. The valuation for Atryn EU, possible follow-on, Atryn Japan, Atryn USA, DIC, and on and on is hilarious enough.
The 20M milestone payment for this year that has been mentioned; is it still coming and does that figure into the 160M cash and the $110 EOY cash balance?
What would constitute "rock bottom" here, barring some horrible scenario, for this stock? Could this go to cash? We aren't that far away.
Re: Tyzeka sales projections
Dew, can you somewhat quantify "astonishingly slow sales ramp to date"? What would be conservative annual sales numbers past present, and a guess at the future? Thanks
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/07/16/idenix-gets-stopped.aspx
Author should be held accountable for what he writes by his peers. It won't happen, but there should be some mechanism for checking and challenging commentary like this IMO.
Dew, I looked around for a RMF, and couldn't find it. Now I see that you are busy, in charachter, creating an effective communication tool to help us build a solid investment thesis one way or the other. Thank you so much.
What strikes me about the cash here is not that it is $2.70/share with PPS @$3.60. It is that the cash is $160M with the above being true as well. $160M is enough cash to catch some major attention IMO.
"160 million and no debt", almost rolls off keyboard too easily!
Thanks, do you think it is possible for IDIX to derive annual profit from their approved drug of $5M/yr. or better? That would justify the enterprise value in itself. No margin here, strictly cash.
All of the above. I wandered over here from GTCB, been reading some and felt comfortable with a $3.67 entry but would appreciate some basic overview - current fully dilluted share count, info on how does this hurt cash flow if NVS was paying for development, etc. Obviously, I will need to study more on my own too. Thanks
Considering Dew's comment re. government involvement and regulations, it only adds to the risk of adopting a new method of production. If a new approach could result in a delay in FDA approval for example, decision makers at the highest levels might be reluctant to consider it.
>>What makes the drug business different from manufacturing in general is the much higher degree of government regulation at every stage of the process<<
If I understand your response correctly, you seem to be implying that the engineering and production of therapeutic proteins is highly predictable. Is the design and testing process also predictable? I'm not talking about the trials, although the early trials could affect the design process.
I don't want to oversimplify it, but if engineering (or reproducing, reverse engineering) these molecules is straightforward and predictable (except for the government influence), then our patented process and our expertise should certainly bear fruit on a continual basis going forward.
Encouraging posts. I guess I don't understand the process completely. In the manufacturing world, the senior design engineers create a design and usually a prototype. After all the decisions have been made and all the testing has been completed, you could send the part out to any number of fabricators who would then deliver your part per the specs.
If GTC's counterparts to this process were capable and competitive AND had a lower COGS, then we would certainly have a backlog. Since we don't even have one new "customer" per any given quarter, I have to assume that this model is incorrect. I have to assume that the design, the prototype, the testing, and the final production are tightly cemented into a model that is much more complex and unpredictable.
Thanks a lot for the insight. If it is that straightforward, then why on earth wouldn't they be lined up at GTC's door for all that savings? It just doesn't compute. Are you sure that GTC's team wouldn't be more integaly tied to the entire development process?
Yes, but it is a "catch 22" situation, IMO. It's like, the platform is great, but developing a winning drug is still "the long pole in the tent", so to speak. You win double IF you win, but you still have to win.
I think that "Efficient drug production platform" is somewhat of a misnomer. It is unlikely that any company would switch production platforms for an already approved drug. Therefore, GTC has to be viewd as a drug development company and they have to be very good at drug development in order to succeed.
GTC has an approved drug in Europe
GTC has a good chance of having Atryn approved in Japan
GTC has a good chance of having Atryn approved in US
GTC has a chance at DIC/Sepsus drug in the next couple years.
GTC has a chance at factor VII in a few years in Europe and in the US.
On the other hand GTC hasn't really acted solely as a drug manufacturing company.
Conclusion: Although GTC has used "partners", to view GTC as "more of a drug manufacturing company" is misguided IMO based on current status. If another company contracts with GTC to manufacture without royalties, it would be viewed as positive, but not produce much of a pop in share price IMO.
On the other hand, I think that as GTC continues the philosophy of "gathering the low hanging fruit", i.e. pursue drugs development where risk of failure is low (given that the rewards are less) we will be seen more as a drug producer that is leveraging an efficient platform against low risk targets.
As we more forward in the coming decades, and as the novelty of various technologies gives way to the mechanics of production, I think companies like GTC will prove more valuable.
>>early relational database efforts were tied to handicapping horse racing. <<
Regarding this early application, I don't recall ever reading about it.
Regarding early adoption, it could start to happen if our team in charge of partnerships is good or lucky or both.
I remember the 80's with regard to database platforms. I was convinced that relational database management systems were the future and worked hard to get it adopted where I worked and later for my customers. But, as good as it was, I would have to be patient because big iron was entrenched and decision makers had to be FORCED by competitive pressures to switch from redundant, inefficient file management systems over to a far superior relational model.
The IT pros in our corporation, whose job is was to know what the hell was happening out there regarding tools, actually became roadblocks and delayed progress substantially. It was a few years later and hundreds of thousands of dollars lost before they finally got on board with what should have been an obvious choice.
So I guess my point would be that we may have to be patient, but when the tide starts turning, watch out! We could have a pharma Oracle on our hands.
Thanks for the clarification. When do the added production costs (LEO EU supply) kick in and do we expect a ramping up in demand over time or flat?
As to valuation, I guess the company would be worth roughly 50M-100M based on Atryn EU sales exclusively which is not far off today's valuation. It is strange that "the rest" is almost completely discounted by the street.
If the number truly is $25M/yr., then today's price is truly ridiculous IMO. There are other forms of revenue too. For example, I believe one should also consider off label usage potential and associated revenues.
Aiming4,
GF is playing with you and that can't be good considering where he's been playing.
I used the example of IDMI yesterday, with Rodman and Renshaw placing $25M of shares. I was drawing a parallel with GTCB's offering of a lot of shares placed by Harris last summer. Almost immediately GTC's PPS went significantly below the offering price and has essentially stayed there since. I'm not saying Harris directly shorted, nor R&R in the case of IDMI, but somehow the boys on the street work together to get 'er done. All above my opinion only.
Re. market forces here, I believe them to be normal, but it pays to try to understand them. When an equity financing is done, big money takes shares because they can use them to control the stock, not because they like the stock.
Consider IDMI. R&R takes stock at $3.50 and uses it to short the stock 10, 20, 30 percent below. What I believe but can't prove is that R&R started shorting before yesterday in some way, hidden from authorities. Management may be well intended but are generally clueless or apathetic as to the way the market works, thinking that cash is cash but it can seriously hurt future efforts to raise money.
bid/ask looks a little more balanced. Who knows? I'd give a few bucks just to know exactly who is selling all these shares at $1.20. Morbid desire, yes.
I'm showing 15,000 shares bought, most at $1.30 AH. What's up?