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Hi
Used to be some analysts had GTCB strong buy, some buy,
some hold, some sell.
Now they are all hold while they raised expectations .50c
from $3.00 to $3.50 with a high of $4.00.
What the he heck is going on? IDLE question.
In fact if they had strong buy for 3 years and nothing happened
one would be tempted to think their new stance is positive. LOL
OKY
No your not clueless. You are on top of this.
I appreciate the other responses I got which was to insure
me that the best possible filtration was taking place. Thank
you PGS and floblu I did get a better understanding of
the filtration process. But the answer to my question goes to
croumagnon. Which is there is no answer at all, just fear!
And speculation. Oh and gathering experience!
He understood the purpose of my inquiry and stated the fear
that some and perhaps many of the investors out there
may have. We really are not sure, but I'd say we are
safe (IMO) but it may take months of experience before some
will be able to come on board.
No Due response? Well perhaps an obvious and trivial question.
OKY
Due, as you know Im not a scientist. I have expression problems
so I'm asking that you take the time to understand what I'm trying to ask you, as this idea has been bothering me.
If you respond please do so remembering my education level
and problems with BIO language.
The question:
Although the filtration process is super. There is an
infinitesimal amount of goat DNA, fragments, small chaines
that do get transfused into the patient.
What happens to that, does it die, lay dormant, get absorbed
or could it have consiquences not explored as yet?
OKY
OK OK I don't say it much and I know you do it for yourself.
But your sharing is tremendous.
I have a lot of respect for you and appreciate all the work you do. Having nothing to do with the price of the shares.
As you already know I only understand 1/4 of it, very
technical, but I get the gist.
Thank You
OKY
Hello, Im still here Just don't have much to say.
We need Time Time Time - Silly to think short term here
just read the articles, its all in the future. GTCB would
only go up here on real eminent news. We need to wait
then wait then wait again. However the rewards will be
there, but only if you can WAIT. From this article tell
me something that would push this stock before the first
quarter of '08 or last quarter for that mater!
Our European partner for ATryn®, LEO Pharma A/S, has made good progress in the quarter in introducing the product to the physician community in Europe for the hereditary deficiency indication while also initiating the Phase II clinical study for the large market indication in disseminated intravascular coagulation, or DIC, associated with severe sepsis," stated Geoffrey F. Cox, Ph.D., GTC's Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. "We are also making strong progress in developing our follow-on biologic strategy. We have added a CD20 monoclonal antibody program to the recombinant factor VIIa program in our partnership with LFB Biotechnologies. Both of these programs may be eligible for development as follow-on biologics once appropriate legislation is enacted and regulatory guidance is established in the US and EU."
ATryn® Commercial Launch Activities and Clinical Progress
LEO Pharma initiated the launch of ATryn® at the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis Congress held in Geneva in July. This introduction included a symposium, poster presentations, an exhibit booth and press conferences. LEO is in the process of establishing prices in various European countries. The first commercial sales are anticipated to be in the United Kingdom and will occur in additional countries as pricing is established.
LEO has opened clinical sites and initiated patient enrollment for the Phase II dose ranging study in approximately 200 DIC patients. DIC is the widespread formation of clots within blood vessels, which often leads to organ failure, and is often associated with severe sepsis. In this indication, the infection and resulting septic condition consume much of the patient's own antithrombin. This antithrombin deficiency then results in DIC. In addition to a number of research studies that support the potential therapeutic value of antithrombin for this indication, DIC is an approved indication for plasma-derived antithrombin in Japan. DIC occurs in an estimated 500,000 severe sepsis cases in the US and European Union each year, of which up to 50% are fatal, representing a major unmet medical need of significant interest in critical care. We estimate the market size of the DIC indication in the US is $2 billion to 3 billion with additional similarly sized markets in Europe and Japan.
"all signs were pointing to GOOD NEWS"
I got burned along with 1000's of others. I'm glad this was
not my major holding and in fact was only 5% or when I got out
3% but given your statement I'm curious as to why you got out.
"THANK GOD I got out of VION quite a while ago" Thinking
perhaps there was some wisdom I can learn from, or was it a bigger bone you wanted to invest in? Happy happenstance!
I really dont know now, I like DNDN but I'm getting out
and thinking there may be a lower entry point in the next
two years. Good luck to those with the guts and youth
to be able to stick it out. I really hope Forbes is wrong
but I must run with my miserly $6,000.
FORBES:
The window for a Dendreon comeback appears to be closing.
Two weeks after the Food and Drug Administration refused to approve Provenge, the company’s prostate cancer treatment, Dendreon (nasdaq: DNDN - news - people ) shares slipped again on Thursday amid increased concern that Provenge will not be approved soon.
At the closing bell, Dendreon shares were down 4.2%, or 29 cents, to $6.55-- a far cry from its height of $23.58 realized just one month ago.
On the day of the FDA’s decision, Dendreon’s shares plummeted 64%, to $6.33 from $17.74. According to the company, the FDA granted an “approvable” letter, which means that it will hold off approval until Dendreon submits more data. At the time, the company did not elaborate on what data the FDA required and when it would be able to produce the data. (See: "FDA Delay Rocks Dendreon.")
Even though Provenge failed to meet its primary goals in clinical trials, many investors were optimistic that the FDA would grant an outright approval after a separate FDA advisory panel endorsed the drug earlier this year. (See: "The Long and Short Story of Dendreon." )
On Thursday, Charles Duncan, a JMP Securities analyst, said the company’s recent actions, including the layoff of 40 employees this week, indicated that it was not confident that it would get a rapid approval. He downgraded the stock to “Market Perform” from “Market Outperform” and drastically slashed his price target to $8-to-$10 from $13. Duncan predicted that it was now less likely that the FDA will only require the ongoing trial’s interim results, due next year, and will probably wait for the study’s final results expected in 2010.
However, Lisa Bayko, a Next Generation Equity Research analyst, warned investors not to read too much into the layoffs. After the FDA’s “approvable” letter, “I had expected all the layoffs, because you don’t need to have the whole sales force immediately in place,” she said on Thursday. The best case scenario, an approval next year, could still happen, Bayko said. But timing remains crucial to Dendreon.
If the FDA waits till 2010, the end of its ongoing trial, Dendreon would be severely disadvantaged because other immunotherapies from competing firms will crop up in 2010 and 2011.
There is also the question of Dendreon's financials. Now that the stock price has been heavily depressed, the company may have lost a pool of money it was relying upon to fund ongoing trials and operations. However, some analysts suspect that Dendreon was able to cash out when shares was riding high at $20 in April.
Dendreon may have used a $200 million shelf registration that was filed in March. It was an "opportunity to refinance the balance sheet and ensure that they have sufficient funding through 2010," Paul Latta, a McAdams Wright Ragen analys,t said in April.
Dendreon is expected to meet with the FDA in the next couple of weeks to discuss what kind of data is needed, according to
Don't have time to read the board. This must have been posted already. Yesterday the standards where changed for drug approval. In light of that I bought stock.
Would have bought more, what to lend me some money. ~:-O)
http://www.fda.gov/cber/gdlns/clintriale...
Well its not 100% I realize that, full approval that is but
I see no reason for not getting at least a partial. Time
will tell!
Hi all
It seems two interesting articles appeared on the YAHOO board. They Where posted by CDJRTH1. I don't see these articles as negative but they can explain some of the reluctance to own GTCB. I would appreciate this boards comments.
*---------------------------------------------------*
I don't know if these 2 articles were posted before but they seem to sum up the lethargy of both the stock price and also GTCB's unwillingness to promote the company through media press releases.
http://www.genengnews.com/articles/chite...
http://www.genengnews.com/articles/chite...
The Climate for acceptance and promotion will change!
OK it was not DNDN but:
Ahead of the Bell: Dendreon Sinks
Thursday May 10, 7:39 am ET
Dendreon Falls Further After Provenge Delay, Analyst Says More Trouble Ahead
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Dendreon Corp., which plunged Wednesday after a ruling on its drug Provenge was delayed, continued to decline in premarket electronic Thursday due to a Banc of America analyst downgrade.
The Food and Drug Administration requested more data about the prostate cancer vaccine before the markets opened Wednesday. Dendreon stock had more than tripled since March on speculation that the FDA would approve the drug later this month, following a recommendation from an advisory panel. Shares gave up most of those gains on the news.
William T. Ho said the agency will probably require data from a late-stage trial of Provenge that will be completed in 2010. He downgraded the stock to "Sell" from "Neutral," and does not expect any other news to boost the stock price.
The company will also need a substantial amount of money to continue funding its clinical trials, he said, meaning it may have to dilute the stock price by offering more shares. Ho set a price target of $4, implying the stock will fall 36.8 percent from Wednesday's close over the next year.
"We are not convinced about the effectiveness of Provenge," he said. In his view, the drug's benefits are questionable and the most recent study of Provenge -- which provided the basis for the panel's recommendation -- had design flaws that could have made the vaccine appear more effective.
Shares of Seattle-based Dendreon fell 47 cents, or 7.4 percent, to $5.86 premarket. The stock closed at $6.33 Wednesday.
I'm hoping for that public outcry and having the drug
approved on a hardship basis. That would do it.
OKY
I just don't know if this meets the criteria, Dew any
thoughts on that?
Nothing goes straight up or down. If there is going to be
a 3 year delay DNDN has not seen the bottom. However that still does not mean its not a great long term investment. It depends on your time frame.
I'm trying to find out if there can be a short path to prove
to the FDA that this drug is viable.
OR
Maybe allowing a hardship usage of the drug. That would be great.
OKY
OK, given all that is ... FDA ... Patient advocates
We are sure, or pretty sure, the FDA won't back off as they
require more evidence but 2010?
Dew - is there any precedence which can put this on a faster track as 3 years seems harsh, after a company has spent over 400 million and was coming home with a drug that is sorely needed.
Is this really another GTC, or can we expect faster action in your opinion? A better question maybe, in your opinion
has DNDN shown efficacy. If so, then was DNDN somehow
negligent in being able to prove it. Or was it another GTC where the goalposts where moved after the game was in play?
OKY
Yes the vote was yes:
FRAMINGHAM, MA – December 5, 2006 -- GTC Biotherapeutics, Inc. ("GTC", Nasdaq: GTCB) reported today that its shareholders approved two proposals that will allow it to complete its proposed sales of securities to LFB Biotechnologies. The first proposal, approving an increase in the number of GTC’s authorized shares of common stock to 200 million, was passed by a vote of 40.6 million shares for the proposal and 3.5 million shares against, with 0.5 million shares abstaining. This exceeded the requirement that a majority of GTC’s outstanding voting stock vote in favor of the proposal. The second proposal, approving the issuance of 3,630,000 shares of common stock and a convertible note to LFB Biotechnologies in accordance with our agreement, was passed by a vote of 36.5 million shares for the proposal and 2.7 million shares against, with 0.4 million shares abstaining. This met the requirement for a majority of the votes cast to be in favor of the proposal.
Can it be in anticipation of GTC Biotherapeutics to Webcast
a Corporate Presentation at Lazard Capital Markets Third
Annual Life Sciences Conference Nov 29th? Do some people
expect some kind of announcement?
Or is this strictly a show event?
HI,
These indicators just turned from 24% sell to 100% buy
in one day. These are great trend indicators, but they
tend to turn late, that is if there going in one direction
and the tide turns they turn a beat off.
What am I saying, nothing really just that unless the conference that is being held at the New York Palace, from
November 28-29 brings good news which pushes the price up
fast, what we can expect is a stall at $120 - $1.30. Stall
not stop, it will only last a week or so and then take a
direction.
TA
See from Mar 29th to now, draw a line over the top prices and
bottom prices. This forms a triangle which is called a
consolidation triangle. That is, if the price was moving down
when the break comes it will continue down. If it was moving
up when the break comes it will move down. That wall
prior to Mar 29 was a rapid move up. The break yesterday
broke the triangle up. Therefore the chart pattern is up.
This pattern has a low failure rate however its an
unstable pattern in that, after a brief rise, it can fall back.
These fallbacks can be brief a week or two and that is
called a throwback on its way up. The throwback would
occur at about $1.38 (estimated and varies). After that
the price would rise again. There are failures in the
throwback where the price drops.
What I am trying to say is that TA is an hour by hour
study. There are only a few long term patterns that
are safe to ride. Trading is a day by day, hour by hour
thing. Whatever is said today changes quickly and
you have to chart every day to catch the set backs.
If I tell you all is well now, call me Friday at 10am I
might have a new story.
It looks great!
OKY
I sent a list of 6 Question to Tom Newberry. - I was able to talk to him for five minutes. I gave him this sample question. He will get to the other questions in two weeks.
“3. Why is it that management is not buying stock in
any meaningful way? We understand NASDAQ and SCC
limitations but in a falling price environment we would be
encouraged if more shares where being purchased.”
His response:
a. We are buying stock, as much as we can personally afford. Although our salaries say we may be wealthy men we are not. We work for salary and our expenses are compensate with our income.
b. We will be awarded shares based on performance and we expect next year to have much more stock through our incentive programs. These are tied to revenue however.
c. The SCC and NASDAQ place limitations on us to some small extent. We can’t just buy. There are timing rules, disclosure rules etc.
d. Our risk tolerance is the same as any investor and although we believe in what we have at GTC we can’t understand the stock price now, we also realize that anything could happen. For some of us to invest more means loans, and it’s always a bad thing to invest with borrowed money.
I have done the best I can, being Dyslexic with poor short-term memory (ADHD)
I can only say this is 90% accurate.
OKY
Gees I'm such a baby at this. I think too straight.
Anyway I'll go back to contemplating my navel until the
ship arrives which I'm thinking more and more will be
mid '07. Of course I have no clue but that will be
right before revenue from Europe and it should move
some then.
Thank You lgoudy (Lew is I may, Lewis if you prefer)
I always learn from your posts
"Bids are always 5-10 times as large as the asks"
Volume wise, but the bid is $1.16, if this
is happening it would stand to reason.
1. There would be no more stock to buy in short order.
How weak is the weak hand?
2. They would have to let the stock rise to make a profit
Question:
Who is selling at these prices, OK some are discuraged but
how can they accumulate if we are not selling for the most part?
The theory that they are selling to themselves too weaken our
hands only works so long. This is going on a long time.
Using that logic with no real buy power they would have
walked this back to below a $1 why should they pay $1.18
if they have that kind of power?
I have no clue but the price is about $1 under what I would
have sworn it would be at this time.
OKY
Due I was not piling on, on the YAHOO board, LOL.
I read the posts oldest to newest and respond when I'm moved to.
I had not read the next post LOL, he had the same question as
I have but with ATTITUDE LOL.
*-----------------------------* In case you did not see it!
Don't you think GTC is gearing up for an American partner?
I have no way to know of coarse but if we follow their
past strategy in Europe it makes sense, IMO.
Perhaps the US is a different game?
I'm not saying all shares, and I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad idea.
What do you think?
OKY
Tom Newberry
Called him again, and asked him about this idea that stockholders are looking for some reward after all these years. I put it to him that some feel GTC is not stockholder pro-active.
What immediate gain should LFB give if any? What does the stockholder have to look forward to short term? Why hasn't GTC been more active in promoting the company?
Unfortunately I had to leave the message on his phone.
He got back to me but I was not in. He said he was traveling and
getting ready for next weeks conference call (Thursday).
He said these where exciting times but his answer was to long to leave on the phone. He would call me Friday next week or the
following Monday. If not I should call him back then.
Nothing really but I have shared more nothing than this!
OKY
Its as amazing as its programming and what it considers. I think companies like GTC get shafted as potential is hard to program.
IMO
mblimon
THank you all true
IM in LOL
JESS
I agree as in my last post. Its not that its bad, its going to delay the stock price growth. Some of us are here 2 years, some 8. We also have believed any minute now so long we are weary, and punchy.
I've done something I said I'd never do, that is sell the stock to people who also think they may have to wait 3 months for the reward. I normally would say they are adults they have to take the good with the bad and maybe that's so but that's son, daughter, ex-wife and another assortment of good friends. I was foolish not because 2010 wont be a good year but never nerver give stock advice, and NOW I repent.
"Put the pom poms down! :)"
THANK YOU? Your very clear and I think right on. Unfortuneately the people who wait are going to have a long wait.
IM going to wait. 2 years is not enough punishment for my sins in life. LOL No I dont think that way
Moral support, For ME -
I’ve got to admit as a stockholder I’m beat to a pulp. I do it to myself. After the two stock sales we now have this. The market down or is it up or is it down. My problem is whiplash. I am holding on, I think, but I’m losing my pumpers enthusiasm. It’s hard to explain to friends and family why with such high expectations this company continues to disappoint. I have read many of the pro and con postings and to tell you the truth it’s hard to separate the pepper from the fly shit. How do I know I’m in a dream! The only thing I can do is go with people I trust and these people have medical or business experience.
Anyone care to buoy me up. I would appreciate it. What do you tell family and friend besides your big boys why did you listen to me, you know I dream. LOL
Excuse my for my but in but it is a well know problem. That is
7 years for approval is excessive. The real problem is
that some drugs need that time and who will take on the challenge of making more realistic guidelines.
Perhaps no one can step up and say we can afford to lose a
few lives to save many, or just help many, who could say that.
However it is agreed that the process creates tremendous
expense and keeps drugs off the market. Is ATryn really
that different that it needs the 7 years, maybe because its
the first? How about others if ATryn proves 100% safe and
effective, then perhaps a two year system (pulled that out of my hat). Is the difference 'the same' drug after drug? I'm not a scientist, not even a doctor but this is worth exploring. No!
What to do? Anything?
SIGA is down from about $2.25 to $1.49, dropped .14c today
Is this a buying opportunity or did something happen. This reminds me of GTCB, the better the news the lower it goes.
OKY
Just noticed our analyst friends -
I see that the analysis, all two of them, say this year
GTC will lose .48c and next year GTC will lose .39c with
a revenue increase of only 4 million. Can't be, although
my memory fails me at times I recall a much higher revenue
figure for next year.
I don’t get this? Then they say the 12 month potential
is $4.00 per share? Based on their increased revenue
figures I don't see how.
Can someone tell me the potential income from Europe
alone? Also increased expense figures due
to distribution and goat food etc. if available.
OKY
Flo - My Goat tie-shirt came in, Very nice but not worth $30.
Maybe it will land me that job. ~:-O 0)
Today's Action....
I'm not going to say I'm happy about today, in fact I'm
perplexed as to what action this stock takes at any time.
The winners will be those who stick in, even if we have to
wait for revenue.
I still think, in the next week, month, two months we will
be over $2.00. Is that more wishful thinking, I'm afraid it
might be.
But I do believe, I do, I do, I do believe January of '07
will show $2.75 +
OKY
Hi
The YAHOO board is full of Yahoos and this board if full of doctors, phd's and the like.
I'm not trading and really don't have much constructive to say.
I read your posts though, I either laugh myself silly or sometimes you find things no one has, nothing earth shattering but interesting.
I'm glad your around, my list is getting very small :)
FLO-
Blocked at work and my home computer is at the shop.
Bet it was a good one, porn right, goat porn I bet. )
I bought that useless piece of garbage. With
shipping it was $30.00 worth about $12 but what the heck.
Signed by Cox himself
Never mind I want a t-shirt with a GOAT on it that says, I got rich buying GTCB
You and I, how about it, we will make a fortune. Just don't tell anyone!
" meant it did not seem to be important to Soros that the Russell Index had delisted GTCB earlier this year. Im sure you remember all the discussion on the Google board."
Maybe we will go right to the NASDAQ he he
Flo-
Showoffs
Great
How about improving ones medical knowledge.
HANW off to Vermont - 4 day get out of here
Bye
Dew -
LOL my face is red but I thank you for your answer. I keep hearing about sepsis in these posts and have lost the key, to what people are referring to if not ATryn.
In about a year I'll have it together.
I appreciate your time, looks like 1/2 the reasons I stuck with GTCB and ATryn where for reasons of misunderstanding. LOL
Well I still say its a winner.
Anyone -
As Dew has stated ATryn does not meet the fast track requirements as there is an alternative drug.
That is for humanitarian reasons due to the absence of any treatment, although the alternative is very very expensive and
sepsis dangerous. Still, there is an alternative.
An argument would need to be made that the possibility of sepsis makes ATryn meet the humanitarian condition. That would need to be submitted as a rule exception, in some way.
Has this kind of exception been made, is this realistic?
OKY