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I'm closing biti out because I dont have a good idea of which way bitcoin might go from here but the chance of an explosion in either direction is increasing at this time so its a live to fight another day moment.
I respect your viewpoint and you got a deal.
Nobody can know the future. All my prognostications are just my idea of what the odds say What I see when I look at this stock is all the good intentions in the world along with the real world reality of massive dilution resulted in a stock price down 93% percent since the beginning of 2022 and over 98% since the peak in early 2021 regardless of and in spite of any growth in mining assets. IMO any more dilution could result is a stock price substantially below where it is now which is not rocket science and yet after all this there are still guys who apparently believe in this stock. Amazing.
How can dilution not be a problem especially for shareholders.. Dilution dictated the stock action before the rs running it all the way down to under a nickel. . Worse is when a company gets a reputation for constant dilution. Typically in order for the stock to go up it needs more people interested in investing in it Tactics like reverse splits and constant dilutions drive potential new investors away. HUT trades roughly at the value of its retained bitcoin and cash because of dilution and reverse split problems. It has a reverse split planned right now in fact. INTVD has little to no retained earnings or retained bitcoin value. IMO INTV stock is dead. The new stock is INTVD. It has totally different attributes than INTV. Continued destructive dilutions may drive the the stock price well under a buck. You dont see people rushing to buy this stock now that the per share data is pretty good do you? Unfortunately the reputation may have carried over from the dead stock.
One way I could change my mind about bitcoin future is if bitcoin big money can donate to enough congressmen. It would not surprise me to find out they have a good start on this.
You can look at my previous posts. For me probably the most importanf issue is that now the professional shorts (Wall St) has become fully engaged with bitcoin (adaption). Doesnt mean they are always short but Wall St banks have made a successful living by taking the retail money away from them for more than 200 years one way or another. There are many other important developments including new and developing technology that can affect bitcoin negatively I have already mentioned and the fact that there are more criminals than ever using them. A I is no doubt a huge help aiding and encouraging them. What bitcoin still has going for it is great P R but with absolutely no substance and even this is beginning to fade as we saw the current rally has not attracted enough of the public. Bitcoin has survived so far because it is irrelevant to the govt. If this changes the govt will destroy it as a trading vehicle IMO.
When you see institutional adaption in bitcoin understand that a good portion of those institutions are there to play bitcoin in both directions like I do.The only reason to buy or sell short bitcoin is to try to make money just like some guys on this board were trying to do with the previous iteration of INTV. While no govt has the power yet to kill bitcoin they can destroy it as a desirable trading vehicle and it wont be long before they will have to means to kill it. Quantum and neural technology marches on while bitcoin stagnates by design. Like I said the macro environment has changed since intv was a penny.
More adaption only means more reasons for the govt to go after it. They may not be able to kill it but they do t have to. They only have to male it uncomfortable to trade which they can do. When intv was a penny I was long with everybody else but I sold I the 70 cents area on the way up. The macro universe is completely different now
Firstly you can't depend on bitcoin going up. It is a trading vehicle and nothing more. It might go above 40k or it might not. Anytime the professional shorts want to control it they can. Next IMO going forward this stock can no longer afford the dilution king reputation. It leads to more and more dilution and another RS then more dilution and more RS. On the other hand if it can't grow, it can't compete. I don't think it can grow enough to compete (survive) in any event.
Right now INTV is down about 67 percent from the time just before (2 days before when selling picked up unexpectedly) the rs announcement. That is a major hit to the stock and if you add in the destructive effects on the stock price of previous dilution events I can come to the conclusion that the stock having had all the punishment it can reasonably stand, any further dilution could, I suspect lead to a sub 40 cent price for starters and then lower as dilution assumptions and actual dilution occur assuming a 30k bitcoin price. The other major problem is skyrocketing mining difficulty. If mining difficulty is at an all time high right now, what will it look like in 2 months? How about 6 months? Then we face the next halving in about 10 months. Is squeezeout a potential problem? You tell me. My hope for you guys is that he sells the company.
How does this affect a company the size of INTV This is why I think the company should be sold while it is still viable.
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-soars-as-hashrate-surges-to-new-ath/
That certainly is one of the biggest cross currents. I have pointed out that M2 money supply is declining for the first time since the 1920's and that has been associated with several major depressions in the past. If M2 keeps on declining it could become the overwhelming financial factor affecting much of the planet. It's already affecting the euro-dollar mkt
Bitcoin direction still a mystery. So many cross currents. If it can break up through resistance that flips bitcoin bullish. The more times it bangs up against resistance the weaker the resistance becomes. I would like to see it go back down and hold 27k area again. As soon as it starts back up from there I would probably go long.
At $143k revenue there should be room for earnings...
INTV is generating about $143,000 per month, surely it can't all go for bills at least I hope not.
Today bitcoin appears to be leaning toward forming a shs top. I think it could still be manipulated a bit higher first. It's bitcoin so anything can happen. Yesterdays P & D was yet another good example of the desperate to get out manipulators once again failing to get the useful idiot cannon fodder moon boys involved. People have either wised up or already given the whales all their money. I see a pulse in the 420 area.
Today is one of the cooler rug pulls I've seen. This will go a long way toward restoring confidence in bitcoin.
Was that before the pattern of shareholder destruction due to repeated napalm bombings of dilution capped off by a nuclear bomb of a reverse split?
With good behavior by mgt, how long do you think it will take if ever for this stock to get up to 3.50?
Can anyone possibly imagine any and I mean any current shareholder hanging on to this stock if company plans include any more devastating dilution of any kind whatsoever? I certainly can't. My Goodness, how much shareholder self inflicted punishment is enough? Isn't sitting through the reverse split enough? I mean what exactly are shareholders here for?
Is Bitcoin going to go through resistance this time or is it building a shs top? Don't know yet.
That didn't count the loss from the effect of when the rs message came out. So it's probably around an 85% haircut all together. My Goodness!
So far the cost of the reverse split to a shareholder is about a 68 percent haircut.
Right now with the current financial setup the company may be sellable. It is after all much cheaper than it was a week ago making it a much improved value to a potential buyer perhaps even allowing for some type of premium over where it is selling now. This I suspect could be the reason for the reverse split. I dont know what the window of opportunity is as the machines INTV uses get older every day so I assume its not huge window. If on the other hand the strategy includes any hint of more dilution at all I dont want to talk about what could happen to the stock price.
Bitcoin has hung around the 27k area support and it's possible for it to revisit 31k area one more time Not a prediction but we will see what happens.
Luckily I can blame the ceo for my bad investment decisions. As usual, it's never me. Whew, that's a releif...When I bought this stock.I knew he'd be useful for something...Now, going forward let's see what else I can screw up.
There is fundamental value to INTV.
I am happy to hear that you have done well and I hope you continue to do so.
I understand the pain guys are feeling and I wish it wasnt so. The stock market is a big boys game. He did warn everybody about the rs so nobody would be blindsided He built this company from nothing with little to no assets to start and now its generating more than 7 million dollars per year. In order to do this share holders had to suffer dilution How could it be any different? . The stock told you all along that was going to be the case. How many times have I said find me a 3 or 4 or 5 cent stock that is not a pos? Stocks like this are made to trade not to hold and this stock has given plenty of good opportunity on both sides. Steve has built himself a very good living like everybody is supposed to do. I admire him for that. He does not come to work everyday to be somebodys nanny.
It was widely discussed and accepted that a reverse split was very likely going to tank the stock. After this major disaster for the share price I am guessing that there wont be dilution for a while. According to the press release there is now 2.8mm shrs outstanding and with bitcoin at 30k about 7.5mm annual revenue if the company continues to produce at the same level as it did in the first quarter. You do the math. I am hoping the company goes up for sale at some point. If I am wrong and dilution starts quickly then all bets are off as IMO the company cannot grow enough to survive the ever-growing competition for very long.
Guys who think this is going back to 3 cents need to consider that what will likely prevent that is it has substantial revenue on a per share.basis representing fundamental value. So how much punishment is enough before folks say Gee, ya know, that aint so bad.....
I intend to be a buyer
Another thing, the ceo gave everybody plenty of warning about the rs. Then a ton of guys sold on the news. Why would he mention it unless he was absolutely going to do it. I posted this several times along with the recommendation that I wouldn't touch it until the rs happened.
I am guessing perhaps getting the company ready to sell. He may see the handwriting on the wall with the next halving getting closer and it's already next to impossible to compete with really big miners always getting bigger in an industry that is growing every day around the world by adding new machies to the grid. In other words, fear of getting squeezed out. I believe the cro mentioned possible mergers etc.
I guess we have different ideas about where bitcoin resides. I believe bitcoin is still in a bear market and the recent rally is a bear flag within a typical bear market rally.... and this until proven otherwise. Proof of otherwise lies above the current resistance area for at least several trading days. The resistance appears to end around 31.5k . While breaking resistance is possible odds are currently against it. Right now IMO the most important macro factor to keep an eye on for bitcoin and the rest of the market is the declining M2 money supply
The bitcoin rally appears over. I mentioned selling btc stocks out and for you to consider biti last week. I always use a stop. First bitcoin support is around the 27k area then 25k. I have said several times I believe the rally was contrived but the whales were never able to get the cannon fodder public interested enough. Good for the little guy for a change. IMO the minute the govt floats a retail fedcoin, bitcoin will be finished as a trade. The clock is ticking.
Going forward the financials on a per share basis do not look bad as I pointed out. .If revenue per share is about $2.67 there should be room for meaningful earnings. Perhaps the market cap had to be adjusted downward in order to facilitate one requirement needed to prepare the company for sale. I hope that this provides some consolation to you.
INTV now at 2.8mm shrs... so.......
21 bitcoin mined per month x 12 months x $30,000 per bitcoin is about 7.5mm revenue
this should = about $2.67 per share revenue.....
so.... at $2 per share price right now that shoild be less than 1 x sales or about .75 x sales !!
Your Welcome.
My question is... does generating 21 bitcoin per month support a $4 stock price at 2.8mm shrs? For example hut has about 10x more shares out and mines about 10x more btc per month but their share price is under 2 dollars and hut has a clear path to growth and a book value of about 1.75 dollars per share in bitcoin and cash only