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Energy Bubble Will Burn Bulls Just Like Tech Did, Says Top Investor Herro
Posted Jun 16, 2008 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: XLF, XLE, GM, F, OIL, USO, DUG
David Herro, Harris Associates' chief investment officer (international) wasn't named one of SmartMoney's "World's Greatest Investors" of 2007 by following the crowd.
So it's probably no surprise Herro is betting against the herd's current fixation on commodities. Herro, who oversees about $20 billion in assets, believes commodities are a bubble ripe for popping, with oil most vulnerable to a big downtown.
Supply/demand fundamentals simply don't support oil at current prices, he says, predicting crude will tumble back into the $60-$80 per barrel range in the next 24 months.
And just like tech fans in the early part of the 2000s, energy bulls will get burned, he says.
Hulmegeneratoren.
Drys stiger med 3 %. Mange andre stiger med meget mere. Synes nu DRYS er faldet relativt meget i forhold til de meget høje fragtrater. Kan ikke se nogen grund til at fragtraterne skulle falde ret meget. Hey...we don't need any more houses in china...de har brug for alt det de overhovedet kan få plads til.
Møguge i øvrigt.
De capesize skibe bruger også mange chips, det har jeg jo sagt.
De har idag elektronisk styring af alle cylindre separat, med printboards, kabler og hele møget. Underligt det skal være så stort og klodset, men sådan er det med så store motorer. Det skal kunne holde til en grovsmed slår på det.
Det håber jeg sgu ikke den gør, så dobler jeg.
Regner med at 60-62 er et bedre opsamlingssted, men det er jo umuligt at vide med sikkerhed.
Capesize rates plummet as demand fades
Michelle Wiese Bockmann - torsdag 12 juni 2008
Evaporating demand for iron ore has pushed rates downward.
CAPESIZE rates have tumbled in their sharpest one-day decline ever, as “panicking” owners accepted sharply discounted rates, amid evaporating Chinese demand for iron ore from Brazil and Australia.
The Baltic Capesize Index lost nearly 16% or 2,855 points today to reach 15,178 points, dragging the average time charter rate down by a staggering $33,000 per day to $180,237.
Those levels were last seen six weeks ago, and are 25% down on record highs a week ago.
“It has a lot to do with psychology as the charterers are dropping the rates very quickly, and a few panicking owners make a wrong decision, in my opinion, to accept them,” said a leading, London-based dry bulk broker.
“Cargill had one ship they decided to fix very cheaply and that caused a downward spiral.
“So there’s a lot of panicking going on, people are just making the wrong decisions, they have to hold on a bit.”
The number of capesize vessels available in late June has begun to rise as chronic congestion at Chinese discharge ports eases and rampant demand for iron ore finally begins to wane.
The Baltic Dry Index also dropped on the back of the volatility, losing 963 points, or 8.7% to reach 10,142 points, with panamax freight rates also affected.
The largest falls of $55,000 per day were seen in the Pacific region, where BHP Billiton had pushed rates up to a record last week after a month-long chartering spree.
The mining giant hired in May 30 capesize vessels to load iron ore from Western Australia but brokers report falling demand from China after record imports in April, as mills start to deplete the 82m-tonne stockpile.
Also fuelling the panic was paper trading, as profit-takers pushed capesize June contracts down by $14,000 per day to $192,000, according to Freight Investor Services.
“I don’t think this is forever but when it slows down a little bit you can see how frothy the market was and how it has to come back to some sort of normality, where you can still trade capesizes at $150,000 per day which are still amazing levels for shipowners,” said Phiippe Van den Abeele from shipping hedge fund Castalia Fund Management.
“This was not sustainable.”
He said that volatility was likely for a further six months.
“This is not the end of the world. The general macroeconomic environment is lending some support to a reduction in activity.”
Jeg har drysset lidt i DRYS i 71,04.
Ærgrede mig sidste gang da den var i 60 - nåede aldrig at reagerer og så steg den til 115. Nu flipper de igen.
Drybulk index posts largest-ever 1 day drop
Thursday June 12, 1:32 pm ET
By Samantha Bomkamp, AP Business Writer
Key drybulk index posts largest-ever 1 day drop as demand sinks for largest drybulk vessels
NEW YORK (AP) -- A key shipping index measuring drybulk vessel activity posted its largest one-day drop Thursday, dragged down as rates for the sector's biggest ships lost significant ground.
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures drybulk shipping rates on 40 routes across the world, sank 963 points Thursday to reach 10,142. The index had wavered, but remained above 11,000, since hitting an all-time high on May 20 of 11,793. The index, managed by the Baltic Exchange in London, had previously posted its biggest one-day skid of 443 points on Jan. 17.
The index's reading for Capesize vessels -- the largest drybulk carriers -- fell 16 percent. The average Capesize vessel now costs about $180,000 per day, compared with prices of more than $230,000 per day last week. Capesize vessels are so named because they are too big to fit through the Suez or Panama canals, and must instead sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn to travel between oceans.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Natasha Boyden said in an interview the significant drop was the result of Chinese iron ore importers working through their stock piles of the commodity instead of bringing more into the country. With the huge demand for iron ore, steel and other commodities carried by drybulk ships soaring, Boyden said Chinese importers turned to their own supplies as ports clogged and drybulk rates skyrocketed.
But Fitzgerald noted that the Chinese only have about three to four weeks worth of iron ore stockpiled. After its resources are used up, Boyden said drybulk ships will again be in high demand to deliver goods to the country.
"This (pull back) is merely temporary," she said. "Painful, but temporary."
Investors sent shares down across the sector as they reacted to slowing market activity. In midday trading, shares of DryShips Inc. fell $5.14, or 6.6 percent, to $72.30. Navios Maritime Inc. lost 15 cents to $9.64, while Danaos Corp. gave up 49 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $23.04.
Genco Shipping and Trading Ltd. sank $4.13, or 7.2 percent, to $53.23. Diana Shipping Inc. pulled back $1.10, or 3.7 percent, to $29.07.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. retreated $3.06, or 7.5 percent, to $37.75, and Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. slipped $2.03, or 7 percent, to $26.50.
Euroseas Ltd. fell 9 cents to $13.10.
Bulk indekset får tæsk. Derfor får Drys og de andre...hvem der vidste hvor meget det skulle ned.
http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report
For Jer, der gider svinge lidt, så kunne DRYS sikkert snart være lidt interessant.
AMD stiger fint igen. Det er nogle værre rollercoastere.
NM er også faldet meget tilbage igen. Underligt egentligt, den har en PE på 3,5 og en peg ratio på 0,2. Det er et rent røverkøb, hvis man altså ikke lige tvivlede på hvem røverne var.
OK.
Jeg synes huspriserne faldt mest i København. nt.
Jeg synes nu det var det hele der faldt.
Har mest i tech og en hel del i canadisk mudder.
http://stockcharts.com/
Europa er grøn.
Det var den dårligste dag jeg kan huske siden nogle af de værste jeg har set "dengang" i januar/februar.
Asien virker ret negativ, så lad være med at kigge.
Hvis I vil kigge så find briller med grønne glas frem.
Har du også drukket for mange øl idag.
Ja så er gevindsterne for de sidste to måneder væk igen.
Det giver da underholdning. Som en rutsjebane.
Jeg sidde også og kigger på Ford.
Den er nede i 6 igen.
Jeg køber dem ikke. Du har sikkert ret.
Jeg henter nogle øl istedet.
Jeg har droppet de deep value ideer for denne gang. Der skal et volsomt bearmarkede til før jeg gider dem igen.
Synes bullmarkedet har været i godt og vel ..siden 2002/2003 og hvis de ikke er steget, så gider jeg ikke.
Prøver i stedet af finde noget, hvor der er noget dynamik jeg kan forstå...ja forstå...altså det er meget under solen jeg aldrig lærer at forstå.
Købte nogle etrade her igen i 3,52.
Man kunne også købe de bulk ret billigt igen. De er ikke helt nede i niveau fra februar, men der mangler ikke ret meget.
E*Trade's 'First In, First Out' Position: Yes, 111M Shorts Can Be Wrong
by: Cindy Reed posted on: June 11, 2008 | about stocks: ETFC
http://seekingalpha.com/article/80821-e-trade-s-first-in-first-out-position-yes-111m-shorts-can-be-wrong?source=yahoo
Since Citadel’s cash infusion in late November 2007, E*Trade’s (ETFC) share price has been range-bound: dropping as low as $2.08, rising as high as $5.48, and sitting at around $4 for the past two months. Illogically, this current $4 range was the exact low price range in November 2007 when no one was sure whether E*Trade would survive bankruptcy. In November 2007 E*Trades bankruptcy price per share ranged from $4 to $6. In 2008 the highest price has been just above $5 for a handful of days in February.
Additionally, short interest positions continued to increase last month. Perhaps this is just a product of hedge funds playing games with the share price in a tight range or perhaps not. How long will it take to chase the 111 million shorts out of this stock? Especially when average daily volume is only 15 million shares.
The main rationale for shorting E*Trade is the mortgage portfolio. The problem with this rationale is that E*Trade’s mortgage problems were fully disclosed on the table and the impact was inflicted in full back in November 2007—and E*Trade survived. After Citadel’s investment, a turnaround plan was established and many milestone markers of successful execution have been reported, especially in the last two months.
The April quarterly report soundly established that bankruptcy was no longer a problem, April metrics were better than the industry averages, and as of May the loan portfolio was performing according to management expectations. Subsequent marketing strategies, innovative brokerage tools (BlackBerry), improved brokerage metrics, and stabilizing balance sheet transactions make the current “bankruptcy pricing $4 range” completely unfounded.
Other lenders like Lehman (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), UBS AG (UBS) and Citigroup (C) have just started to reveal their problems, are questioned regarding whether they are revealing the true extent of their problems, and are still figuring out what they are going to do to survive. Along with LEH and MER, Cramer included JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Countrywide Financial (CFC), Wachovia Corp (WB), and Washington Mutual (WM) Monday morning in “Cramer on BloggingStocks: Questions swirl around Lehman’s capital raise.” Cramer points out the lack of transparency about what’s in their portfolios and the “soft denials,” about how bad it is. Notably, E*Trade was not listed nor included in Cramer’s discussion.
E*Trade’s true position among them is more of a “First One In, First One Out” and moving on down the road. However, the market still perceives it to be related to the “bad news” banks; but E*Trade has been in a full disclosure position since the 4th quarter of 2007. The question is not if E*Trade will make a profit, it is a matter of “when,” and according to the words and actions of CEO Donald Layton it will happen soon.
This begs the question, exactly when does a share price return to even a third ($6 to $8) of what was considered normal ($18 to $24 pre-July 2007)? When does a share price fully return to normal (a gain of 400 to 600 percent)? Book value/cash on hand is around $6.50/share.
Let’s review in more detail what E*Trade has done these last seven months:
1. Stable Customer Base and Customer Cash Levels
2. Aggressive and Superior Technology Trading Platform Leadership
3. Secure Capital Levels and Excess Cash Reserves
4. Improved Debt to Equity Position
5. Positive Effects of Citadel’s Investment
6. Mortgage Portfolio Activity, Loss Provisions, and Portfolio Composition
7. Insider Stock Purchasing and Management Compensation
Stable Customer Base and Customer Cash Levels
E*Trade’s customer base is secure and is now growing again. E*Trade’s customer cash stabilized in December - after Citadel’s investment - at approximately $33B (see Q4 conference call transcript). After the first quarter, E*Trade’s customer cash equaled $35B – this level is far ahead of the company’s own projections for 2008 (see Q1 conference call transcript). To put this in context, before Prashant Bhatia’s November 12th article and the ensuing run on E*Trade’s bank, customer cash equaled $39B. E*Trade is well on its way to getting back to this level of cash deposits. E*Trade added 60,000 new customers in the first quarter of 2008 (see Q1 conference call transcript), which is the highest level of new customers since the 4th quarter of 2005. These business trends show that E*Trade’s brokerage business remains steady and strong. As Jim Cramer recently stated – the brokerage is “fantastic.”
In summary, E*Trade’s customers base, in spite of a major bank run, is stable and growing. E*Trade’s competitors will no longer siphon customers from E*Trade that are worried about E*Trade’s mortgage issues. In fact, E*Trade is actually gaining customers at the expense of their competitors . This cannot be stressed enough. Everyone saw what happened with BSC – it was at the mercy of hedge funds that could withdraw $17B in cash a day, and did. That destroyed BSC. In contrast, E*Trade’s customers are comprised of millions of individuals, those who remained after November 2007 have remained strong with, and loyal to, the upstart brokerage; and many who left have obviously been returning . Customer cash levels show that E*Trade’s customers continue to believe in and trust E*Trade. Adding to customer confidence are the high levels of insurance E*Trade maintains for accounts, including $100K of coverage for the FDIC and $500K of coverage from SIPC.
Aggressive and Superior Technology Trading Platform Leadership
Last week’s announcement of “E*Trade Mobile Pro” for BlackBerry is indicative of the market technology aggressiveness and leadership position E*Trade is establishing among brokerages. E*Trade is the first brokerage to offer this mobile platform and like recent PowerTrading upgrades and service enhancements, it is absolutely FREE. Technological aggressiveness and “early entry” into new brokerage services E*Trade will secure a dominant market share position in both the USA and in “world” brokerage markets. According to E*Trade, an “iPhone trading, ” “Palm trading,,” and Windows Mobile trading” platform is in line right behind the BlackBerry mobile platform.
E*Trade’s superior and stable trading platform is a strong factor for customer retention and growth. For example, several times over the last few months and as recently as last week, TD Ameritrade (AMTD) customers have experienced slow order execution, quote tracker problems, and slow or dropped streaming during critical trading times; resulting in extensive customer complaints. Problems at TD Ameritrade could very well be contributing to E*Trade’s success as customers that left E*Trade now return because of dissatisfaction with Ameritrade’s stability and platform.
E*Trade’s continual “free upgrades and enhancements” to their powerful system tools, their “problem-free, high-powered” platform, with the opportunity to trade in 6 global markets, and sophisticated option trading tools provide for maximum customer satisfaction and new customer attraction. The E*Trade services are more global and comprehensive than TD Ameritrade (AMTD) or Schwab (SCHW).
Secure Capital Levels and Excess Cash Reserves
E*Trade’s capital levels are stronger than most major banks. In addition to the “loss reserves” that E*Trade intends to set aside for its HELOC portfolio, E*Trade also intends to set its cash reserve level in excess of well-capitalized standards at $1B. At the end of the first quarter, E*Trade had about $700M of excess cash and a risk-based capital ratio of 12.4%. To put it in context, J.P. Mogan has a 12.4% capital ratio and WFC has a risk-based capital ratio in the range of 11%. E*Trade’s goal is to have a risk-based capital ratio at 13% by year-end 2008. Based on E*Trade having exited the mortgage business, wholesale and origination, with associated loan run offs, the addition of $300M more excess cash to the balance sheet, and the trend of increasing customer cash, E*Trade will almost certainly smash through its goal of a 13% risk-based capital ratio.
Where is E*Trade getting all this cash? Let’s review.
Non-core Asset Sales. E*Trade estimates that it will have at least $500M of cash coming from non-core asset sales (E*Trade already received approximately $150M from the sale of its Indian assets. That’s right, no share dilution for $500M needed. So, if $300M from these asset sales is used to reach E*Trade’s excess cash goal of $1B, which is all that is required, that means E*Trade will then have $200M of free cash to do whatever it wants with.
Expense Reductions. On its 4th quarter conference call, E*Trade announced a $360M expense reduction and an additional $50M compensation cost reduction for a total of $410M of cost cutting. Subtracting $80M they stated would be dedicated to increased advertising, E*Trade will have net another $330M of excess cash from cost cutting initiatives.
Summary. Let’s do a rough, back of the envelope calculation here. Due to all of the above-mentioned measures, E*Trade will likely have approximately $530M of excess cash to beneficially apply where appropriate by the end of this year. Strikingly important is that this will be accomplished with no additional share dilution and is in addition to the approximately $500M of excess cash E*Trade has at the brokerage (from E*Trade’s 10k) and the $1B of excess cash E*Trade will have at the bank. That’s a lot of cash on-hand.
Improved Debt to Equity Position
E*Trade’s improvement in its debt to equity position is ahead of the 2008 recovery plan. The parent company of E*Trade has a lot of debt and Mr. Layton has already embarked on a plan to clean this up. He has planned $700M of debt for equity swaps. Now this does result in additional shares, but overall is very beneficial to current shareholders as it rids E*Trade of the onerous debt on its balance sheet.
Mr. Layton has already accomplished approximately $184M of these debt for equity swaps, and still has a planned $450M at $18 per share for November 2008. Layton has only $66M of debt for equity swaps left to do/account for. As a lifelong banker with JPM, Mr. Layton’s dedication to cleaning up the balance sheet will greatly benefit E*Trade’s shareholders.
Positive Effects of Citadel’s Investment
First of all, the Citadel investment stabilized E*Trade at a critical juncture in time. Citadel did involve share dilution and E*Trade shouldering debt at a fairly high interest rate. But compared with the dilution that major financial institutions have had to deal with recently, E*Trade appears to have gotten an o.k. deal (for example, BSC, WM, NCC, and TMA). Indeed, on the November 29, 2007 conference call, E*Trade’s own accountants stated that the anticipated dilution would amount to something approximating 50 cents per share. In any event, the Citadel deal was necessary and accomplished the purpose of stabilizing E*Trade’s business.
Also of interest is the fact that Citadel has continued to purchase E*Trade’s senior debt. From a recent SEC shelf filing, after the debt for equity swaps are considered, Citadel now holds about 75-80% of E*Trade’s outstanding senior debt. Even more interesting from the shelf filing, all of this debt and shares held by Citadel and Blackrock it appears can be sold to any party, even an E*Trade competitor. Moreover, the shelf filing reveals that all of these senior notes are not secured by the assets of the subsidiaries until 2011. This is important because the parent company of E*Trade does not have any real substantial assets to speak of; all of the business is conducted through the subsidiaries. Thus, if Citadel were really concerned that E*Trade could be in trouble, it would not make much sense to continue to accumulate E*Trade’s debt when said debt is not secured by any real assets.
And another point according to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Nicoll formerly of Instinet, LLC, was Citadel’s top choice for the CEO position, but declined to take the position when he found out E*Trade couldn’t be taken private. Thus, any nefarious conspiracy theories that Citadel is going to take E*Trade private for a dirt-cheap price doesn’t really make sense. In addition any such deal would be subject to incredible scrutiny not just by shareholders, but by the OTS since E*Trade is a federally regulated bank. Finally, the fact that a very powerful hedge fund has a vested interest in E*Trade’s success should be considered a good thing..
Mortgage Portfolio Activity, Loss Provisions, and Composition
Finally, let’s talk mortgages. E*Trade has four categories of mortgages:
1. Consumer loans (boats, RVs, etc.),
2. Mortgage-backed securities,
3. First-lien prime loans, and
4. HELOCs.
Consumer loan delinquencies actually decreased from the 4th quarter 2007 to the 1st quarter 2008. Similarly, the “mortgage-backed securities” portfolio has shown stable performance. All but $1.1B of that portfolio is backed by FNM and FRE. And the $1.1B that is not backed by FNM and FRE is AAA or AA rated and has been appropriately written down assuming that the U.S. has entered a mild recession. In other words, this portfolio is a non-issue (see Q1 conference call transcript).
The first-lien portfolio is performing worse than expected but this really has no effect on E*Trade’s capital position. E*Trade’s average position in these properties is about 70% LTV. Moreover, E*Trade has insurance on any property over 80% LTV and approximately $4B of this portfolio is covered by a credit default swap. In other words, while the first-lien portfolio may be a drag on earnings, it is not going to hurt E*Trade’s capital position due to E*Trade’s position in these properties.
Finally let’s turn to the HELOC portfolio. To date, E*Trade has already charged off about $300M in losses on this portfolio, and has approximately $500M of reserves set aside for future charge offs--which E*Trade estimates will cover the next four quarters of chargeoffs. Even assuming a U.S. recession, E*Trade has affirmed its estimates of cumulative losses relating to this portfolio to be around $1B to $1.5B over a three year period—this total loss exposure was arrived at with third-party consultants. E*Trade affirmed this range on the 1st quarter conference call and again at the shareholders’ meeting in May.
At the low end of $1B, E*Trade would have to provision for $200M more of losses. At the high end of $1.5B, E*Trade would have to provision for $700M more of losses. E*Trade stopped acquiring mortgage loans in early 2007, especially the high LTV% home equity loans. Thus, the mortgages that should never have been written and were destined to go bad, most likely have already gone bad. This would explain why new delinquencies actually DECREASED in the 1st quarter of 2008, a statistic so surprising that one analyst on the call inquired on this very fact since this is the exact opposite of what analysts are seeing in other financials. It is important to note that all of E*Trade’s loan reserves and performance projections are on the conservative side and assume a U.S. recession.
Evaluating the current composition of E*Trade’s home equity portfolio shows additional positives. Of the approximate $11.5B loan portfolio, E*Trade has the second lien position for only $1.5B. The greatest danger is if the lender’s loan is in second position. This means that E*Trade has about $10B worth of pure home equity loans in its portfolio. Assuming a $1.5B total loss figure means that E*Trade is prepared to write off 15% of these pure home equity loans. Succinctly put, even assuming that the mortgage/housing market continues to deteriorate, E*Trade has been super-conservative in preparing for such an event and a recession is already priced in to the assumptions E*Trade has envisioned. Therefore, although one should always be aware of the current state of the market, E*Trade can handle the current housing market, and should have no problems handling a further deterioration as well.
In conclusion, the mortgage performance reports from management in April and May establish that E*Trade’s home equity loans are showing stable and even improving results, while other lenders’--like Lehman (LEH) this week--will continue to struggle with home equity loans for some time to come.
Insider Stock Purchasing and Management Compensation
Insider stock purchasing in 2008 is very encouraging. Mr. Layton spent $1M of his own cash to purchase E*Trade shares at $4.07 and the entire Board of Directors recently purchased a substantial number of shares on January 29. Moreover, Mr. Layton has options for 235K shares in November of this year that are worthless unless E*Trade’s share price is above $5.26. That, plus the additions of Mr. Druskin and Mr. Kanner to the Board brings substantial experience, credibility, and know-how to the Board.
Interestingly, Mr. Kanner purchased 50K shares or April 22, and just over a week ago purchased an additional 25K on May 30 at $4.03 making a total of $387K of personal funds invested in E*Trade stock.
When Mr. Layton accepted the CEO position, his entire CEO compensation package was comprised solely of stock options. That’s correct, he doesn’t receive any cash for acting as CEO of E*Trade. The only cash payment he receives is from his duties as Chairman of the Board and that was fixed in late 2007. Clearly, Mr. Layton sees E*Trade stock as a good investment and has personal motivation for management decisions that will continue to increase shareholder value and be non-dilutive.
His statements have stressed again and again that management actions will be shareholder friendly, and that E*Trade will only access capital markets on an opportunistic basis and in a shareholder friendly manner (see Q1 conference call transcript). But with all of the above discussion, it is obvious that E*Trade has no pressing need to raise more capital.
Disclosure: Author has a long position in ETFC
Author's note: I have been criticized for writing research on E*Trade while holding a long position. I respectfully submit that if I have spent the time to extensively research a stock, and then spent extended additional time to write up the research and share it with other investors, then I would be crazy not to hold a long position in the stock.
Nogen gode I synes man skulle samle op i.
Jeg er klar over, at I er ved at brække Jer over at markedet falder igen.
Det er en fordel at være så torskedum som mig.
(Kan være en fordel)
Pip.
Dårlig dag i går. Det står i stampe igen.
2 skridt frem og så 1 tilbage, sådan har den sidste måned været her.
Nu skal det være 4 skridt frem og 1 tilbage.
I er da nogle værre kylinger.
Spørg bare zailor. Han er en Fois gras. Fedet op til at være sej og lækker.
Fed sammentrækning af Abu dhabi og Dubai.
Abu dhabi - omtrent $63,000 pr. indbygger årligt (2006)
Dubai ca. $28.000 pr. indbygger årligt.
Hvad så med araberne?. De ved jo alt omkring olie og olieefterspørgsel.
Gad vide om de har taget højde for at de selv vasker foretovene med benzin.
Jeg tager ud og cykler idag igen, så benzinen burde falde nu..lige nu..kom så.
Energy Agency cuts oil demand forecasts
Tuesday June 10, 7:02 am ET
International Energy Agency cuts oil demand forecasts amid surging prices
PARIS (AP) -- The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year amid surging prices, but said Tuesday that global hunger for oil is knocking markets out of kilter.
"Supply growth so far this year has been poor and higher prices are needed to choke off demand to balance the market," the Paris-based watchdog said in a monthly report.
The agency predicted global oil product demand in 2008 to grow by 0.9 percent, or 800,000 barrels a day, down from the 1.2 percent, or 1 million barrels, forecast earlier.
The change follows decisions by several developing countries to reduce fuel subsidies because of high oil prices. The agency has also made upward revisions to its 2006 and 2007 data.
The agency lowered its 2008 global demand forecast to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels from last month. The agency has been steadily lowering its demand predictions for the past several months as oil climbs repeatedly into record territory.
Oil prices have risen more than 8 percent since the IEA's last monthly report. Light, sweet crude for July delivery rebounded 67 cents to $135.02 a barrel in Singapore trading Tuesday.
The IEA predicted U.S. oil demand would contract by up to 2.5 percent this year to 20.3 million barrels a day.
"Airlines are cutting flights. ... Consumers are protesting and politicians' statements reflect that mood," the report said.
Lower fuel taxes or higher subsidies would, the agency said, be "absolutely the worst response."
U.S. presidential candidate John McCain has proposed suspending gasoline taxes for the summer, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing for a cap on fuel taxes across the 27-nation European Union.
The agency reported reduced oil consumption in rich countries that make up the 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, but noted few signs of slowing demand in developing countries, especially China and India.
The IEA is preparing a landmark forecast for later this year on the world's oil supplies through 2030, prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply levels.
Apple unveils faster new iPhone, chops price
Monday June 9, 8:40 pm ET
By Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
Apple unveils new iPhone with faster Internet speeds and chops price, as expected
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- The iPhone will soon be $200 cheaper and support satellite navigation and faster Internet access, but higher monthly service charges are likely to erase most of the savings.
Apple Inc. revealed Monday that it has scrapped its pricing plan for the iPhone as it unveiled a model that works over faster wireless networks, addressing key criticisms about the device that have hurt the company's foray into the cell phone industry.
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An 8-gigabyte version with the new features will go for $199 when it goes on sale July 11, and a 16 gigabyte model will cost $299, the Cupertino-based company said.
Current iPhone owners who buy a new model and sign up for a new AT&T contract won't have to pay any penalties to get out of their current contract, AT&T spokesman Michael Coe said. And anyone who bought an iPhone in an AT&T store after May 26 can return it before Aug. 1 for full credit against a new one -- less a 10 percent restocking fee.
Apple plans to make up the difference in sales revenue with volume -- and with subsidies wireless carriers will now pay for the right to carry the gadget.
In changing the pricing arrangements, Apple is pulling out of revenue-sharing arrangements with some wireless carriers, a move that frees the carriers to charge higher prices for the service.
Apple shares fell $4.03, or 2.2 percent, to close Monday at $181.61 on the news, a sign that some investors were hoping for more and others were taking their profits after a four-month run-up in Apple's stock price, which leaped from $120 in March.
The new iPhones, initially to be introduced in 22 countries, are designed to work over so-called 3G, or third-generation, wireless networks and have global-positioning technology built in.
They will also support Microsoft Corp.'s Exchange software, an addition that puts the iPhone in more direct competition with Research in Motion Ltd.'s BlackBerry and Palm Inc.'s Treo smart phones and is intended to appeal to the business market.
Analysts have said Apple needed to slash the iPhone's price and make it usable on faster networks to hit the company's target of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Apple said the 3G iPhones download data twice as fast the older ones.
Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said Apple has sold 6 million iPhones since the first model launched nearly a year ago and 700,000 since March. That points to a steady slowdown in sales starting in the fourth quarter last year as customers waited for a 3G version.
Jobs showed off the new models of the iPhone and about a dozen new applications for the device at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco.
New applications range from video games that use the iPhone's motion-sensing technology to guide characters to study tools for medical students and a program that allows users to find nearby cell-phone-carrying friends on a map.
One program brings real-time video highlights and game stats from MLB.com; another receives news from The Associated Press and participating newspapers based on the user's location -- and lets the user submit news tips and photos to the AP.
Apple also announced a new Web-based service called "MobileMe," which the company describes as "Exchange -- for the rest of us," a consumer-friendly way for people to link their iPhones to their home and work computers so updates entered into one device automatically appear in the others.
MobileMe will cost $99 per year and come with 20 gigabytes of online storage.
AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for the iPhone, said service for it will start at $39.99 per month, plus $30 for unlimited data. That works out to a $10 increase from the cheapest plan for the first-generation iPhone; over the course of a two-year contract, that increase wipes out the savings from the price cut Apple announced Monday.
AT&T's pricing covers only U.S. residents. While iPhone prices will drop outside the U.S. too, it wasn't clear whether other carriers would raise monthly fees to compensate.
AT&T also warned that it will take an earnings hit due to the pricing because new subsidies it agreed to pay will produce the iPhone price cut -- not a reduction from Apple.
Apple said in a regulatory filing that under most of its new carrier agreements, it will not receive a share of subscribers' monthly service fees as it has under contracts for the first-generation iPhone.
Jobs said Apple waited to improve the iPhone for use on the faster network because the chips available when the iPhone first came out sapped too much battery life and were too bulky to fit the iPhone's slim design.
The addition of global-positioning technology improves the iPhone's accuracy in locating users. Current versions use a combination of cell-phone towers and Wi-Fi locations to help users figure out where they are.
The 1.73 million iPhones Apple sold in the first three month this year gave it a 5.3 percent share of the worldwide smart-phone market, according to research firm Gartner. Apple has been adding overseas markets gradually with carrier deals.
Det kan være på det tidspunkt hvor jeg syntes det begyndte at gøre ondt.
Formen kunne godt være bedre.
Bare det steg hver dag.
Tillykke. Jeg er i minus minus.
Dejlig dag ellers. Var oppe forbi Farum/værløse og skovene deroppe. Fin tur, men det er faktisk lidt for varmt til at cykle alt for langt.
Leader stiger helt vildt med 18 %.
Jeg går ikke til banko, men skal ud og køre Nordsjælland rundt nu i aften.
Skal vi mødes i nærheden af Tankstationen oppe ved farum? Den ved krydset, syd for byen?. Jeg sørger for lappegrejerne.
ETFC købte jeg selv i 3.3, du i 3.5? og AMD købte jeg i 5.5 (Rettelse efter jeg fik svaret i første omgang: har lige tjekket, huskede delvist rigtigt; købt af 4 omgange i 6.14, 5.93, 6.23 og 6.06 - og så har jeg haft den sidste forår, hvilket jeg helt havde glemt) og nogle i 6.2. Du har haft alle muligheder for at købe AMD billigt de sidste måneder. ETFC var mere tricky, men nu er den så vidt jeg kan overskue på vej op igen.
BLG var for mig den farligste og jeg turde ikke købe ret meget. Jeg har for 815 dollars idag i den.
Meget mere i de andre.
Den eneste af dem, der er faldet er BLG og den var og er spekulativ. ETFC var det også i starten, så jeg købte kun lidt til at starte med, men det er blevet til noget mere.
KLIC, det er det samme og det er også den - sammen med AMD jeg har sendt dig charts af.
KLIC er oppe med 30-40% siden jeg begyndte at købe den, AMD noget mindre men også fint med 30%.
BLG har jeg et tab på 61% i, men det er en lille post, kun de 815 dollars eller 1500 til at starte med.
Du må hellere koble videre.
Hvis der er andre der købte FMD i sidste uge, blot fordi jeg nævnte den.
Den gør mig noget nervøs og hurtige gevindster er også gode gevindster.
Jeg sidder og skræpper op. Amd er noget lort sææælg.
Nu køber jeg altså ikke lige flere idag.
PIP....Gad vide om fuglefrø ikke burde stige med den globale fødevarekrise, men jeg bliver helt bange, da jeg godt kan se de vil spise mig istedet.
Jeg smager altså ikke særligt godt.
Pip?
Jeg cyklede forbi Roskilde i Lørdags. Endnu engang så jeg Zailor ligge og hugge i Pia. Det er altså synd for fædrelandet, at det skal lægge jord til.
Det ser fint ud.
Indekserne i asien og europa synes jeg også ser fine ud. Regner med at det stiger i aften igen.
- og jeg skal have fundet 1 til, men jeg tror faktisk bare jeg køber op i en jeg har. En techaktie.
Ja og med linux men kompatibel med XP.
Ikke ekspert, men jeg så gerne B.G blive viftet af den høje hest.
Tid til frisk luft. Godnat.
Gratis styresystem
http://www.ubuntu.com/GetUbuntu/download
eller søg efter linux.
Koster minus.
Gratis styresystem
http://www.ubuntu.com/GetUbuntu/download
eller søg efter linux.
Koster minus.
Hvorfor exporterer du det ikke bare til Chennai.
Så laver de en fil af dårlig kvlitet og så kan vi slet ikke bruge det til noget og så sætter du den ind her.
Jeg har problemer med internettet. Det falder ud hele tiden.
Det er det nye vista styresystem, hvor man bruger tillukkede vinduer med persienner.
(TDC har problemer med en central).
Spændende. Jeg har en.
Man kan købe dem fra 3000 og så kan du jo bare smide et andet styresystem på.
Atmel's FingerChip Biometric Sensor Selected by Rise Computer for its Robust Security
Monday June 2, 8:00 am ET
SAN JOSE, Calif., June 2 /PRNewswire/ -- Atmel® Corporation (Nasdaq: ATML - News), an inventor and leading provider of swipe sensor technology and solutions, announced today that its FingerChip® fingerprint sensor solution has been selected by Rise Computer, Inc. for its RX5622 LCD PC. Rise will showcase this biometrics-capable LCD PC during 2008 Computex in Taipei, Taiwan.
Atmel's FingerChip solution as a standard feature enhances consumer friendliness in the RX5622 LCD PC by allowing users to conveniently manage user accounts and passwords and protect data via finger swipes. The RX5622 LCD PC features a slim, all-in-one 19" touch screen LCD display integrating the latest Intel Quad Core technology along with other consumer friendly options, such as WiFi®, Bluetooth®, built-in speakers, Webcam and TV tuner.
Atmel's FingerChip solution is based on its unique thermal sensing technology. It provides excellent fingerprint image capture, >25kv ESD protection, and superior protection against mechanical and chemical erosion. It works seamlessly with Atmel's Trusted Platform Module for a "one-stop-shop" for PC security.
"We have chosen the Atmel FingerChip solution for its robust fingerprint imaging capabilities and end-to-end design support capabilities," commented Rocky Ma, Director of R&D from Rise. "Its excellent performance against dry, wet, dirty, greasy and other types of difficult fingers guarantees the best of user experience during every day, real life usage scenarios. And we appreciate the integration support from the local Atmel team in Taiwan to ensure the most ergonomic design necessary for the best biometrics performance."
"RX5622 LCD PC from Rise is truly impressive in its ability to pack so many user friendly features along with desktop PC performance in a slick, all- in-one LCD display," said Bruno Charrat, Director of Biometrics Product Line at Atmel. "We are pleased to work with Rise to enhance the overall usability of the LCD PC with our turnkey fingerprint sensor solution optimized specifically for the PC. And we look forward to continue our penetration into the PC market."
Both Atmel and Rise are exhibitors at Computex 2008 in Taipei. Please come to see Atmel's FingerChip and TPM solutions at Booth N027 and Rise's LCD PC at Booth L329a, L330, L331a and L332.
About Atmel
Atmel is a worldwide leader in the design and manufacture of microcontrollers, advanced logic, mixed-signal, nonvolatile memory and radio frequency (RF) components. Leveraging one of the industry's broadest intellectual property (IP) technology portfolios, Atmel is able to provide the electronics industry with complete system solutions focused on consumer, industrial, security, communications, computing and automotive markets.
About Rise Computer
RISE COMPUTER INC. is one of the leading and innovated designers and quality manufacturers developing high-performance All-In-One LCD Panel PC and IA/IPC Motherboards in the market.
© 2008 Atmel Corporation. All Rights Reserved. Atmel®, logo and combinations thereof, FingerChip®, and others, are registered trademarks, or trademarks of Atmel Corporation or its subsidiaries. WiFi® is a registered trademark of WiFi Alliance. Other terms and product names may be trademarks of others.
Information:
For more information on Atmel's TPM products, go to http://www.atmel.com/products/embedded
For more information on Atmel's FingerChip products, go to http://www.atmel.com/products/biometrics
Press Contacts:
Nancy Moore, Marketing Communications Manager
Tel: (+1) 719 540-3262, Email Nancy.Moore@atmel.com
Helen Perlegos, Public Relations
Tel: (+1) 408 487-2963, Email: hperlegos@atmel.com
Så sover I igen.
Det her er til zailor.
XLY XLP XLE XLF XLV XLI XLK XLU VCR VDC VFH VHT VGT VAW VPU ICF IYM IYC IYK IYE IYF IYG IYH IYJ IYR IYW IYZ IDU IGE IGN IGW IGV IGM IBB IXC IXG IXJ IXN IXP MTK