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I'm ready for the phase 3 OM partnership news.
I'd really rather hear about some OM and UC partnerships.
Like $100/share or $1000/share?
The problem is that after a certain number of times of saying it and after a long enough period of time the statement no longer has any meaning.
Leo has been saying he is committed to building shareholder value for seven years. In that time the share price has declined 99%.
That's where we are. The entire market knows that Leo's words are completely meaningless at this point. He has plugged and plugged and plugged this pipeline and there isn't a single drop of good will left to milk in this market.
I am hoping and eagerly awaiting the day when Leo's words once again mean something and my portfolio is reinvigorated by sustained growth in IPIX.
It is time to form partnerships or sell this company. Sh*t or get off the pot, Leo!
Gotta love it when a plan comes together.
Everything all wrapped up neat and tidy.
Earning 10x what he would slinging returns at H&R Block.
His own boss, answers to nobody.
Aspiring CPAs take note.
"Shortly" is a matter of which side of the table you're on.
When you're collecting $10K/week salary time flies by without a care in the world.
When you're forking over your retirement to pay someone $10K/week the weeks just crawl by. Week after week with no results and a huge loss in investment.
Come on Leo. Give us some relief.
Not really. It was a trial failure.
That's a good thought. You don't generally need a signing bonus to hire a typical routine staffer. Let's hope they have the connections we need.
All depends what he means by selling.
Ehrlich-owned Shares? Lies. It would have to be filed.
Fresh IPIX Shares? Dunno.
Bullshit? Yeah we get a few handfuls of that each quarter.
Hoping Leo is vindicated soon. My portfolio hurts.
I'm desperately hoping we see something interesting in the secondary COVID data. I don't think COVID will be the future target but other longer lasting viral indications may be a good target for Brilacidin.
That's some plush couching.
This is what happens when your CEO and CFO are the same guy and there is probably minimal, if any, staff to review these filings.
March 1st will be a new dawn for IPIX. Leo will unveil the new plan and we shall rejoice and sing praises unto him.
It has been a long four months but finally IPIX will turn a corner again.
Just remember to sell some into the pump this time for goodness sake.
Didn't say they will release it by the end of Feb 2022 tough.
As expected. Since it only covered to the end of 2021 I was expecting no new revelations. We'll hopefully get more details in the May filing.
Been sayin that to myself since....2015. Any day now. Any day.
"The Innovation team is working with biostatistics partners to explore the data" but "has yet to have undergone full data analysis and review as biostatistics data is still forthcoming from its vendor."
I think the "vendor" in the second part is the "partners" in the first part. Very poorly worded and we shouldn't be left to guess what he means. That's the interpretation when giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Got that deja vu feeling though...
Sounds kind of like Prurisol phase 2b again, no?
Good hunch the data was bad all around so why bother paying the vendor to release/analyze it?
Once again, nothing gets done quickly in IPIX land. By design or incompetence? I think it hardly matters at this point.
There are only $6M in regulatory milestones on the B-UP deal. The other $18M is in sales milestones.
Phase 3 start = $1M
Phase 3 success = $1M
Filing NDA = $1M
Receiving NDA = $3M
$100M sales= $3M payment
$200M sales = $6M payment
$300M sales = $9M payment
My hope is we would have a successful oral B-UC trial before then. In which case I think AS would stop development of the inferior UP delivery system.
Advancement of B-UP just secures the payroll for a few more years. Think of it as Leo's pension plan should all the other drugs fall through.
It wont do shareholders much good.
He has to be very careful with the money we were lucky enough to raise during COVID. We won't get another chance to raise $10M on our own without adding a significant mark to the win column.
Why would you say that? He could just fire Jane and collect $500K/year for another decade.
Not really. $10M in the bank with partnership and licensing opportunities. No matter how bad they are Leo will have to take them and they are probably worth a lot more than $0.03 over cash.
The odds are that any one IPIX asset/trial will fail.
If we were dependent on any single CTIX/IPIX trial to deliver a substantial and durable increase in stock price, we would have lost on every trial except possibly B-ABSSSI back in 2014. Even than led to doom but the stock was up substantially for about 8 months following the results.
None of the other eight clinical trials since then has resulted in sustained stock price increase nor a change in trajectory of the seven year downward slope of the share price.
Borrowing = near certain death for IPIX.
Partnership or buyout = high probability of gain even if it massively cuts potential
I was a sure path to $0.50 and then $1.00+ if we see successes.
I don't want some fantasy crack at $5.00 with callable debt.
Sounds like a bad idea. If CTIX/IPIX had ever borrowed money from someone willing to call the debt it would have gone bankrupt long before now.
In fact, if we did it to fund the COVID trial we would probably be looking at bankruptcy right now.
Well, the dilution hurt but we were at $600K cash with a share price around here two years ago. We now have $10M in cash. So folly or not, IPIX was dead without jumping on the COVID bandwagon. We're in a much better position now than two years ago. Better to lose potential off the top end than to run out of cash.
I understand it pretty well. That's why I'm looking forward to our OM and UC strategy going forward.
Right, but does that dose exceed the dosage in the Polymedix trial?
How high are you going to dose it before the side effects from the Polymedix Phase 2 trial begin to show up? There is a ceiling.
Don't join this without a VPN or call into this with your phone unless you want your IP and phone number out there.
This should be deleted.
Plans fall through sometimes.
A frequent occurrence in IPIX land.
Leo sold 2/3 of the entire company through dilution for around $50M over the past seven years.
If he could get $1.7B or a partnership that reflected that value don't you think he would have?
There are two logical reasons why he didn't:
1. He couldn't.
or
2. He was delusional enough to prefer doing the dilution because he believed it was worth at least 3x$1.7B = $5.2B
Neither are very good for shareholders.
Also, not a whole lot of patent life left to find money for an anti-microbial phase 3, run it, get approved and ramp sales to recoup $1.7B before it goes generic.
Time really is of the essence with Brilacidin. It's what gives me a glimmer of hope that Leo may sellout soon. Another couple years tick by and the patent life just gets too short/risky.
Leo is the man. He's a CPA making over $500K/year doing a little quarterly paperwork while failing to meaningfully advance a drug pipeline or bring shareholders anything resembling an ROI.
He just rode the COVID wave and locked in enough money to pay his salary for another 5-6 years plus the money owed to him by the company.
The existing name brands have been tapped so we're acquiring another some other new asset that's even better than Kevetrin and Brilacidin. One more good shot at catching lightning in the bottle in baby pharma land.
If nothing else it will be one last good pump until the IPIX name is irreparably trashed so he can finally sell some shares at a decent level. I'll be doing the same.
Leo's only doing a bad job if you thought he was on your team. Leo eats first in all things. If there are scraps left for shareholders, great. If not, just good. Shareholders are here to pay his salary first, and get a return on investment second.
Aside from that, I'm itching for another roll of the dice at the Ehrlich casino. This time is different...I can feel it. Might buy some more for the 2022 Roth contribution tomorrow.
What's $6000/$0.05? about 120,000 shares....nice. Sweet add if that $4.00/share buyout comes through.
Only a short seller would be disappointed with a $1.7B buyout of a $25M company. It would be a horrendous day for anyone short.
I'd be very disappointed if I spent $1.7B on a mystery box and found 440M shares of IPIX inside.
I don't know anyone who would consider $4.00/share a loss.
At this time a buyout would be closer to $0.40/share and it would be a top 5 buyout premium of all time in biotech.
Just to highlight how ludicrous $4.00/share is.
The highest biotech buyout premium ever was Allergan buying Tobira for a 1500% premium (16x the share price).
In IPIX terms: 16 x $0.05 = $0.80/share.
$4/share would be 5x that previous record.
After all we have been through, without further successful trials, do you really believe you're holding the lightning in the bottle that is five times better than the all-time record buyout premium?
Really?
Don't you think we would have struck a deal on Kevetrin or B-ABSSSI or B-OM or B-UC if we could have? Instead we increased the share count 250% the past five years to have essentially the same money and pipeline we did then.
Leo would not have diluted us like that if he had a superior option in monetizing the pipeline. Given the abysmal B-UP deal terms I'm not surprised he chose the dilution route if that is representative of what he can negotiate.
$4.00/share....we should all be praying to whatever gods we believe in that we get $0.40/share.