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In other words, it might go down then up, or up then down. How prescient...
Well, the most appropriate one would have been for Chemistry, since he seems to have perfected the technique for transforming bullsh*t into gold...
The bulls can smell that Dow 10K again...
Two - I think you have it about right. Just enough movement back and forth to maintain the illusion of a fair market, and to give those with the master playbook the opportunity to make their daily quotas, but with an underlying relentless push to the upside. Seems to be working quite nicely for them so far, and with all the spinmeisters trying to convince Joe Sixpack that every bit of less bad news is actually wonderful news, Joe seems to be buying it. There was yet another report today declaring that the recession is officially over. Wonder how they know that in advance of the GDP numbers, or are they just assuming that the GDP numbers are a "fait accompli", i.e. cooked nine ways from Sunday by the Obama lackeys? Must be all that stimulus money, only 20% of which has been spent. Think we might be able to rescind the other 80% or perhaps apply it to the massive debt or the healthcare bill??? I would not count on it. It is my considered opinion that they are out to bankrupt the country as the means to bring about the "redistributive change" with which BHO is so enamoured.
Concur. After being strongly positive earlier in the week, my Normalized Chaikin Oscillator is hovering around zero, but it is still early in the day so it will increase as more volume is racked up. A/D is about the same as yesterday, but A/D Vol is much more balanced.
Well, if we are in c of Primary B, what rule governs how high it can go, i.e. one of your Fibonacci's, or is the sky the limit? The market seems to think the latter, since every declared top is eventually violated. Are these rules written down somewhere, or are they modified as necessary to fit the situation?
Someone here already said it, maybe MTar, TA is next to useless in a managed market. Last year's debacle destroyed so much wealth and confidence that some have said it may keep many small investors out of the market for a generation. In my opinion, the primary goal of the Fed program of excess liquidity is to prop the markets long enough to restore that lost confidence and convince the small investor it is safe to get back in the water. And, through the monetization process, a good portion of that "liquidity" is actually U.S. debt, so they simply cannot afford to let the markets go down until that money can be gradually withdrawn as it is replaced by private money. Isn't that a beautiful system? You take the debt on to the Fed balance sheet, lend it out to your favorite investment banks who use it to drive the markets higher, you periodically cash out for a nice profit, and then repay the Fed at ridiculously low interest rates. How do I get a job at GS?
My system has been screaming Short on an IT basis for a while, but recognizing reality, has been mostly in Cash until something smacks the market in the head with a 2x4 that all is not well in the Obamanation. Since July, the prop job by the Fed has been relentless, and they are on record as saying they will do it for as long as it takes the economy to recover, so on that basis, I don't think a trip back to the basement any time soon is in the cards for any person capable of rational thought. Longer term, I think their strategy will fail, and when they are forced by bigger concerns (i.e. an imploding dollar) to lighten up the balance sheet, only then will we have a "fair" market again. It is hard to make your marbles go in the holes when someone keeps tilting the table on you.
Yeah, no doubt in recognition of his international groveling, apology, and appeasement tour. What a joke...
I am not very good with wave counts, but this still looks mostly up to me, with no clear violation of the lower trend line...
Do you think Bennie is ready to throw in the towel and ruin his chances for reconfirmation? Did you ever see the musical "Annie"?
That's one of the best "calls" I have seen here. Spot on.
Alcoa kicks off 3Q earnings season after the bell.
Dollar up today, futures pulling back from their overnight highs...
However, that said, on any given day I might be Long based on ST indications.
Absolutely. Couldn't you tell from my "vicious bear attack" post this AM (btw, isn't he *cute*???)? Problem is, if the majority of traders and fund managers have bought into the idea of the dollar/inflation trade as a direct result of the Fed's policy of injecting fiat money to prop the markets via GS/JPM, we are fighting a losing cause. It won't be until *something* (the official demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency or clear evidence of a double dip on the recession) really scares the bejeezus out of these brazen bulls. Today's midday sell off didn't scare them a whit. Didn't even close the gap, and they bought it right back up. I keep saying that 3Q earnings may be the death knell that everyone has feared, but those numbers may be as cooked as anything coming out of Washington.
Hmmm, interesting. So much for the bulls' conviction regarding this AM's runup. However, due to the gap up, still ~ 15 NDX pts above yesterday's close. Very ST OS here, expecting a bounce back at least to the mid-range, and a closing ramp job is not out of question.
Hey, Dan, just trying to keep it light while I keep an eye on my hope indicator. However, he is a cute little bugger, isn't he?
By the strict definition, if 3Q GDP is not negative, the recession will will have officially ended, but with continued job losses (note that fewer lost jobs per month is still more lost jobs in the aggregate), GDP will remain anemic for the foreseeable future, very likely in the .5 - 1.0% range. Hardly a booming recovery, and the deficit spending on an historically massive scale by BHO and the socialist democrats will suck the wind out of any growth prospects. The impact of all this fiscal irresponsibility is that the dollar is doomed as the defacto world reserve currency; secret talks are already being held as to when and how to make the shift. Seems the Saudis and the Chinese are tired of getting shafted by having the U.S. debt they hold repaid with printed money.
I just googled "gold ETFs", and it seems there are a bunch, even 2X Long and Short, if you have the CO Jones.
Yes, the market is very single minded and the thing it is focused on for the time being is the dollar/inflation trade. My opinion is that 3Q earnings will be dismal and will be a cold wake-up call that these soaring P/E ratios are simply not sustainable. All the "green shoots" hype is just wishful thinking.
I think there is some truth in this. Dollar collapses, market goes up. Can it be that simple?
Caution! Not for the squeamish! Vicious wave iii bear attack caught on camera. Scroll down...
What we paid for their little junket to Copenhagen pales when compared to how much we all as taxpayers *saved* by not having to bail Chicago out when the crooks absconded with the money for their "no bid" contracts, and you *know* they would have figured out a way to stick the U.S. taxpayer with the bill. Yeah, that big empty lot that Jarrett owns in South Chicago that she expected to make a killing on is probably worth a lot less right now.
Yeah, what they didn't count on is that the IOC is one organization that is possibly more corrupt than Chicago politics. My heart is bleeding for all those slimey Chicago democrats (NOT!). I am sure Valerie Jarrett will figure out a way to blame the republicans.
Chicago eliminated by IOC. The Master Liar and the ABB don't even make good pimps. I wonder how much taxpayer money the IOC just saved us???
As I have said so many times, a prediction without a specific time frame is as useless to traders as mammary glands on a fish...
What do you mean "we", paleface???
Perhaps, but I believe their strategy is to prop the markets however long it takes to convince Joe Sixpack it is safe to get back in the water, and so when they do start unwinding, the markets will trade (they hope) relatively sideways, with Fed money being gradually replaced by Joe Sixpack's. What they don't count on is another shoe to drop, e.g. commercial real estate loan defaults, Alt A and Jumbo mortgage defaults, and a continued AWOL jobless consumer. Their problem is the statutory debt ceiling, and despite Bernanke's lies, there is clear proof that the Fed is in collusion with the Treasury to monetize the debt. Through third parties, e.g. GS/JPM, the Fed buys the treasury notes ~ one to three days after the auction, and therefore the debt is effectively transferred to the Fed balance sheet (i.e. monetizing). Under Obama's continued trillion dollar annual deficits, pretty soon, so much of the debt will be on the Fed balance sheet that it will have no latitude for any other "facilities" without "printing" more and more money. The last treasury auction, the Fed ended up with ~ 45% of the offering, since they could only find enough stupid foreigners to buy 55%. Why do you think there is all the talk in world financial circles for finding another reserve currency? It is the direct result of the irresponsible and uncontrolled spending by our socialist leaning Government. The net result of this attempted slight of hand (which will ultmately fail, IMHO) will be Carter era stagflation, but all hope is not lost. "It took a Carter to give us a Reagan." - (not my quote, but borrowed).
In the context of EOM/EOQ (if you believe in such things), today's action is not hard to understand. Fund managers like to show holdings of stocks that have done well, so on cue, they dump their losers which drives down the price of everything, and then buy back what they want to show in their EOQ reports, hopefully with a little gain to boot if they got out and then back in first (i.e. ahead of Joe Sixpack). There was one opinion here that said it had to be Mon due to settlement, but I do not believe that is correct. It is what they own as of today's close, and when the trade is executed, they own it. Just try to convince your broker you really didn't mean to make that last trade.
Isn't that the definition of inflation? The more dollars in circulation, the value of the dollar goes down and the price of everything goes up.
In the case of the markets, if a large portion of the continued Fed liquidity injections to the investment banks, e.g. GS, JPM, etc., is being put to use, then it simply drives the price of stocks higher.
Fed liquidity, dollar down, commodities up --> inflation trade.
If it were possible to fire the whole bunch and start over, I would be for that.
If you are as fed up as I am with seeing San Fran Nan's tight, botoxed, pasty face on the news every night, then you should be able to get behind this...
"You CAN fire Pelosi; send a Republican to the U.S. House."
The private deal was with Bernanke, no doubt as a condition of Bernanke's reappointment, to support the markets, "whatever it takes" (Bernanke's own words). What other explanation can there be for ~ $2T in added liquidity via the Fed balance sheet? It has surely not been based on fundamentals, which continue to suck. "Less bad" doesn't mean "better". If 500K jobs were lost last month but *only* 400K this month, how is that better? Isn't that 400K more jobless consumers who will be defaulting on their mortgages, credit card debt, and deferring large purchases?
The MACD(10,66) slope has gone negative.
No, not until the Fed starts unwinding their balance sheet and lending facilities, and they have said that won't happen until ~ Dec at the earliest, and then only if the markets and the economy are not in danger of collapsing, in their learned opinions (i.e. they have sucked enough dumb money back in to keep the markets afloat). You will admit yourself that the markets are all about perceptions and not reality, so enough investors/traders simply have to *believe* that Bennie has their backs and the market will grind higher, with only an occasional tradable pullback.
FYI, last week the SP500 P/C Options volume for Dec was running ~ 40:1...
Sort of depends on if you own the cow or not...
Yep, no window dressing here...
Also, this was just a few days after they passed the ~ $800B "Stimulus" bill, of which ~ 75% was pure partisan pork and has not *yet* been spent, so how "stimulating" could it have been?. Let's see, $1B = $1000M, so "saving" $100M is a mere piss in the bucket. They also wanted to save $350M by having returning vets with war wounds use their own insurance for treatment and rehab. What a scurrilous bunch of tone-deaf a**holes...
Obama Worship for the Little Ones - If that makes you sick, try this. If you are not offended by this, *you* are a part of the problem...
Wanted: Math/Excel weenie...
Need someone who is good with numbers and understands Excel/VBS to act as a "second reader/code checker" for some very complex calculations and logic statements. If you think you might be interested, please send message to: tmgsignal@comcast.net