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Yeah, it's called GSE Profits. They're all going there, just like I said yesterday.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160712270
It'll either happen in the next 2 years, or it won't happen at all. And we'll know for sure what's coming in the next 2 weeks.
There's no 5-year Recap Window.
Time to wake up and see reality.
Either Mnuchin signs off on PSPA or the GSE stocks all tank 50% on 1/20-1/21.
There's other cases also, but I imagine the judges will come up with more ridiculous reasons to overlook the fraud perpetuated on shareholders.
Lower capital structure cheering a drop in higher capital structure shows how uninformed most are here.
If JPS aren't made whole, Commons are in effect worthless.
Commons should be careful what they wish for
GSE trade over? Everything gets cancelled? Looking likely.
I hope everyone Sold the Pop, that might've been the last one GSE shares ever see.
Exceptional tweet filled with FNMA Facts. Let's sticky it!
Reality sucks, but it's about to hit FNMA like a ton of bricks
We shall see my little PigSkin, we shall see!
I wouldn't expect the GSEs to be retaining much capital when most of it is going to be sent to the Low-Income Housing Trusts and other Home Affordability programs that will be high on President Biden's list.
I'm curious if this is why the Capital Retention amount that Mnuchin/Calabria allowed is exactly the amount needed to pay off the JPS at Par.
Strange, isn't it?
I don't see that happening. But they need to Flatten the Stack in order to recapitalize the GSEs.
Which is something that benefits both Commons and JPS.
Let's get to it Mnuchin!
We should be on the streets like the Stop The Steal rally.
"Flatten the Stack" is what we would be chanting since it will be near impossible to Recapitalize the GSEs unless they flatten the capital stack (ie: Write Down SPS and Convert the JPS to Commons).
Let's get out there and have our voices heard!
#FlattenTheStack
$2 Magnet is pulling harder than the Umbrella
My guess is a fund liquidation, but who knows.
Could just be frustrated investors calling it quits since we're close to the end of the road (1/20).
100% False. Listen to SCOTUS.
Treasury is the only one that can approve any changes in the Sr. Preferreds.
SCOTUS can stop the NWS, but then the Sr. Preferreds go back to 10% annual dividend.
Everyone loses without SPS action by 1/19.
T-Minus 2 weeks. That's all the time left.
We need action within that timeframe, or it's Curtains for all GSE shares.
SCOTUS can't overturn Sr. Preferreds, and they make recapitalization impossible.
So either Mnuchin writes them down by 1/19, or the GSE trade is over.
Smart money is realizing nothing might get done. Listen to the smart money.
Zandi, Yellen, Biden, and the Fellow Travelers surely won't be recapping the GSEs.
And since SCOTUS can't overturn the Sr. Preferreds, pretty soon Commons and JPS may both be worthless ... and Cancelled.
No Bueno Amigos.
Exceptional FNMA Facts. Must read for all!
The Smart Traders Sold the Pop this morning, knowing FNMA Always Drops.
That's what smart traders do.
Let's hope Mnuchin doesn't do Sr. Preferred Cramdown as a last ditch effort.
That would be No Bueno Amigos.
But considering the timeframe Mnuchin and Calabria have to execute, the Cramdown Plan might be their only option.
It's too bad they waited this long. Commons would've faired way better in every other Recap scenario besides Cramdown
Exceptional FNMA Facts. Sticky for everyone to read!!
Seems like it. JPS picking up, Commons stuck in the grasp of the $2 Magnet.
Retroactive commitment fee erases any potential over-payments the GSEs made in addition to the 10%. So that leaves the GSEs with no over-payment.
It seems likely this is what the Treasury will do to prevent needing to pay back any overage.
Agreed. Slow Recap would be a disaster waiting to happen. President Biden definitely won't want a GSE bailout during his 1st term.
Fast recap is really the only way. Existing Commons just have to deal with the beatings that will ensue as a result of the massive capital raise.
That's why investing at the appropriate level in the capital structure is so important to understand.
Excellent points! I wonder how many resident FNMA Average Joes were on the ACG Call earlier or are even privy to the details.
Then again, you know what they say about the Lemmings
Can we sticky these FNMA Facts?!
The next Administration won't do any can kicking. They'll go full-blown nationalization and make sure the GSEs never escape Conservatorship.
Even with a positive SCOTUS ruling, the Judges can't force Treasury to write-down the Sr. Preferreds.
So, the Biden administration will continue to take all of the GSE's profits and use them for their pet projects.
Let's hope Mnuchin and Calabria are ready to act. Otherwise, everyone will soon find out why this trade is called The Widowmaker.
Can you help FNMA break free from the $2-Magnet!?
Can we sticky this to prevent confusion?
Nope. I'd be buying if I wasn't already fully invested.
JPS are struggling a bit, but it's Commons which are completely over-priced.
If there wasn't so much irrational exuberance in Commons, I'd be shorting them.
Will this be enough to break FNMA away from the $2 Magnet?
Is this what is coming amigo?
Disagreed. This needs more supporting FNMA Facts.
But Commons will certainly file more lawsuits if they're not given at least a 20x.
FNMA can count on that!
It's doubtful the GSEs get anything back from Treasury. They'll be lucky to get a small tax credit if anything, but I'm not even expecting that.
Odds are the Treasury/FHFA will impose a retroactive committment fee which will offset the over-payments.
Hopefully they at least write-down the SPS. Anything less and Commons are near worthless.
That's a lot of zeroes. Close to the Warrants' exercise price.
re: Warrants, the SEC has confirmed the exact opposite to me.
Unfortunately I'm not privy to share the confirmation from the SEC. But, I assure the people that need to have seen the response have seen it.
FNMA Coal for the Average Joes this year.
Warrants on deck.
Possible equitization of SPS.
SPO.
Lots of dilution on the horizon.
Let's see where Commons end when it's all said and done.
No Bueno Amigos
I just hope he finally acts before his term as Director ends abruptly.
It will be funny when those who have been crying for action for years finally get it, but then file lawsuits because they're not happy with the outcome.
I expect that is what's coming amigos.
Over the last 5 years, JPS are up over 100% and Commons are only up 15%.
Remember
#FactsMatter
Maybe this is why Commons continue to struggle.
That and too many Sellers out there taking their capital losses for tax purposes.
Can anyone confirm that Swole Investments have relinquished their holdings of FNMA/FMCC Commons?
Rumor on Twitter is the TikTok investment master sold his position yesterday.