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End of Month Dressing
i believe all would agree that this week is end of month dressing. however we cannot draw conclusions that the first weeks in april will be down, even if your sentiment is down.
SMH chart
no comment
shortterm re; Month end
>>>>>We are getting into a turning point one way or another. Rationally thinking it should be down, but markets rearly are that easy....
____________________________________________________________
i am also thinking down but am starting to believe there is more up side than just end/of/month dressing,
the part that gets me is the feds still tightening (thats downside to me)
SMH and S&P charts
SMH is the leader S&P is the market gauge, the leader is turning and the gauge is holding steady,
charts are bullish, smh daily macd is at the line, smh weekly is moving away from lower bollinger and S&P stayed above its 1300 break-out
what am i gonna do?
getting ready to go long (all in) but i need confirmation from smh daily macd break-out and daily adx, S&P upside and market follow thru,
smh,
smh weekly
S&P daily
SMH good news bad news
the good news, its clear sailing to 34.43
bad news, i lost a little cash today,
Nasdaq chart
comp direction? i don't know, but we'll know soon enough,
http://www.chartpatterns.com/rectangles.htm
S&P chart
is this a pennant? if it is, how reliable?
$NASI
i think the $nasi counts for something, currently it is up,
some traders speculate tomorrow will be a pivot point for the market, me too.
my sentiment is to downside
however, what would you do if tomorrow is up, the $nasi stays up and smh/sox continues trending up with-out the "sell-off"
i have my downside game planned out but the upside is gonna be difficult
$nasi
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18551508627
SNDK (chime in) on the long side
sndk looks like it can go to upper bollinger (based on daily charts)
white candles above mid-bollinger..a plus
rsi-5 above 70...a plus as long as it does not break down
a strong trending stoch and an macd cross-over,
but what's really drawing me to $62, resistance is asking to be met
the downside is sndk is a semiconductor,
recommendation add long, stop loss 57.32
keith k has a 792 rating??
time to start an online news letter :)
SMH (chart)
SMH short term target (mid-bollinger) is met,
smh was stuck at 36.40 most of the day, i just do not know if commercial is selling into it or buying.
the call is; smh will restest the low $34 to $35.50 before an all-out rally, if i am wrong, the daily macd break-out will tell me.
ken,
you are the moderator and that is that, believe me brother they will not like it no-matter who it is, (tuff), i will assist you if you like, and the board will also assist you, the board will be the law and you are the arm of the law. so, everyone, don't mess with the arm,
as you can see, we don't have a lot of moderator volunteers but have plenty of critics. its a shiiitty job, so do the best you can, just correct your self when you make a mistake.
lastly, you do not have to enforce the rules everytime, just when posts become disruptive or when there are complaints by the members.
lol brother,
SMH, one more (chart) cad,
listen man, i have not agreed with your upside charts since you started posting (sorry), but the common thing we have is, we're bulls.
i know you have recently changed your sentiment to bearish, and i am also getting frustrated with the price action.
look at these two charts and see if you see consistency,
i'm thinking this is the bottom or near bottom, i have a downside price target of $33.43 for smh but will have to drop it if the macd trendline breaks out, i will also throw out the tax season downside scenario,
take your time, review and see if you agree the semis are turning, also.... what would trump this? and do we need to close the November gaps before rallying?
All,
the message is for cad but chime in if you have something to add in relation to semiconductors.
Kenwong
your the moderator and the more logical choice, you have the time.
my add on;
let the posters say what they want, afterhours,
delete messages anytime you wish, even with-out warning
emotinal outburst are allow, but don't let anyone be disruptive,
don't kick out anyone that makes contributions, even if you don't like them, let the board kick them out,
TRADING TOOLS,
1, RSI(5), enter/exit trade
2, STOCH, support for rsi
3, MACD, to hold current position
4, $NASI and Weekly Chart, for trend bias,
5, Symmetricals and Trendlines enter/exit trades and support for trend bias
Q's
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76256138163
SMH
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62010994103
Prophet
http://www.prophet.net/
Channels
http://www.askresearch.com/index.asp
Images
http://www.imageshack.us/
VTO-REPORT
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm
COT
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm
patterns
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
patterns
http://wongken96815.tripod.com/ChartPatternsEW.pdf
candles
http://www.litwick.com/glossary.html
candles
http://www.americanbulls.com/
Briefing
http://www.briefing.com/
CBOE
http://www.cboe.com/
S&P
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/HomePg&r=1&l=EN&b=10
SMH projection (chart)
chart1,sox, has a target of mid bollinger,
chart2, sox, the bullish flag has broken out with a target area in light blue
chart3, smh, target area is mid-bollingers also pay attention to the macd
chart4, smh weekly (very bullish) significance are the lower trend line, white candle above bollinger and a williams thats about to unleash
Put it all together;
currently the charts are bullish with a minimum target to the daily mid-bollingers, the weekly SMH chart is the bullish of all with a white candle above the lower bollinger and a williams about to break-out. So, a very good case for the bulls.
My sentiment is to the downside with a target of $34.43. The charts are indeed bullish, but not all my indicators are in. i have no wash-out, no spikey candle, no weekly stoch break. I am positive the SMH h/s pattern will materialize but am prepared to me wrong and will draw the line with the daily macd break out (chart 3)
Tax season since 2002
i tallied the last 10days of march and the first 10 days of april, the last week of SMH trading in march have been 2 flats,1drop and a 3point gain, that data is inconsistent for me, the last 10 days of april have been 1 flat, 1gain and 2drops, below is how i divided the time frame,
current semi's position is cash
my message is for traders holding stocks more than one day,
a question would be, why not add long now? 1) its hard to go long when your sentiment is down. 2) i will add a small position to keep up with the mental short term bullishness, 3) i don't make greedy money every day, i build slowly, break even and cut losses early, greedy money comes once a week,
Chart1, sox
Chart2 sox, the boot
Chart3 smh
Chart4 smh weekly
12-Apr-02 43.75 43.98 42.95 43.70 3,116,800 43.19
11-Apr-02 43.90 44.58 43.18 43.38 3,992,100 42.87
10-Apr-02 43.93 44.60 42.80 44.38 6,057,800 43.86
9-Apr-02 45.30 46.12 43.65 43.82 7,095,600 43.31
8-Apr-02 44.01 45.65 43.61 45.40 4,481,900 44.87
5-Apr-02 46.25 46.53 45.15 45.25 3,410,400 44.72
4-Apr-02 45.10 46.38 45.00 45.91 3,246,600 45.37
3-Apr-02 46.29 46.68 44.74 45.30 5,185,500 44.77
2-Apr-02 46.85 47.19 46.16 46.23 4,022,700 45.69
------------------------------------------------
1-Apr-02 46.10 48.19 45.75 47.75 4,750,700 47.19
28-Mar-02 46.55 47.29 46.40 46.53 2,463,500 45.99
27-Mar-02 46.17 46.18 45.23 45.75 1,793,200 45.22
26-Mar-02 44.95 46.66 44.80 46.15 3,690,200 45.61
25-Mar-02 46.60 46.99 44.95 45.05 4,771,000 44.52
22-Mar-02 47.07 47.26 46.19 46.25 4,728,800 45.71
21-Mar-02 45.83 47.16 45.63 47.04 3,744,000 46.49
20-Mar-02 46.80 46.80 45.75 45.76 4,403,300 45.23
19-Mar-02 47.15 47.96 46.67 47.43 2,571,700 46.88
18-Mar-02 47.25 48.00 46.42 46.94 6,807,300 46.39
15-Mar-02 45.35 46.74 45.35 46.64 5,056,700 46.10
14-Apr-03 23.48 24.14 23.30 24.10 4,482,600 23.82
11-Apr-03 23.95 24.40 23.28 23.45 4,476,400 23.18
10-Apr-03 23.61 23.88 23.30 23.71 5,389,300 23.44
9-Apr-03 23.92 24.26 23.42 23.49 6,081,000 23.22
8-Apr-03 24.70 24.76 23.76 23.89 7,994,100 23.61
7-Apr-03 25.73 26.51 24.71 24.78 5,089,900 24.49
4-Apr-03 25.07 25.07 24.13 24.39 5,132,400 24.11
3-Apr-03 25.16 25.49 24.73 25.02 4,111,000 24.73
2-Apr-03 24.13 25.04 24.13 24.91 7,249,100 24.62
1-Apr-03 23.28 23.65 23.16 23.31 4,263,100 23.04
------------------------------------------------
31-Mar-03 23.91 23.92 23.09 23.09 9,409,100 22.82
28-Mar-03 24.66 24.98 24.25 24.39 4,568,700 24.11
27-Mar-03 24.81 25.11 24.56 24.89 5,530,200 24.60
26-Mar-03 25.20 25.50 24.98 25.10 3,966,100 24.81
25-Mar-03 25.02 25.52 24.76 25.21 7,926,600 24.92
24-Mar-03 25.15 25.65 24.91 25.00 8,331,400 24.71
21-Mar-03 26.10 26.50 25.95 26.36 6,678,700 26.06
20-Mar-03 25.45 26.15 25.05 25.75 6,218,000 25.45
19-Mar-03 25.50 25.75 24.86 25.55 6,572,400 25.25
18-Mar-03 25.21 25.67 24.85 25.62 6,795,600 25.32
15-Apr-04 40.51 40.60 38.87 39.17 31,798,400 38.74
14-Apr-04 40.41 41.07 40.21 40.50 14,699,500 40.05
13-Apr-04 41.58 41.60 40.55 40.83 12,267,900 40.38
12-Apr-04 41.30 41.43 40.73 41.34 9,267,000 40.88
8-Apr-04 41.55 41.56 40.71 41.05 9,970,000 40.60
7-Apr-04 40.86 41.20 40.28 40.88 15,823,100 40.43
6-Apr-04 41.35 41.40 40.55 40.98 14,632,900 40.53
5-Apr-04 41.36 41.97 41.19 41.92 13,051,300 41.46
2-Apr-04 41.30 41.50 40.86 41.41 20,611,500 40.95
1-Apr-04 39.67 40.49 39.13 40.13 18,263,200 39.69
---------------------------------------------------
31-Mar-04 39.59 39.90 39.09 39.50 17,023,200 39.06
30-Mar-04 39.42 39.60 38.83 39.55 17,840,100 39.11
29-Mar-04 39.55 40.06 39.38 39.51 14,519,600 39.07
26-Mar-04 39.52 39.83 39.10 39.18 13,969,200 38.75
25-Mar-04 38.40 39.66 38.37 39.53 24,175,300 39.09
24-Mar-04 37.36 38.43 37.24 37.96 22,780,400 37.54
23-Mar-04 37.70 37.92 36.86 37.25 23,485,200 36.84
22-Mar-04 37.30 37.67 36.85 37.37 24,770,300 36.96
19-Mar-04 39.04 39.05 37.63 37.63 13,962,700 37.21
18-Mar-04 39.50 39.81 38.80 39.04 19,083,700 38.61
15-Apr-05 30.54 30.58 29.88 29.91 33,356,600 29.69
14-Apr-05 31.32 31.39 30.86 30.90 27,810,900 30.68
13-Apr-05 31.84 31.92 31.22 31.40 27,490,000 31.17
12-Apr-05 32.13 32.16 31.26 32.08 38,086,000 31.85
11-Apr-05 32.42 32.61 32.17 32.21 14,858,200 31.98
8-Apr-05 32.60 32.86 32.46 32.49 20,023,400 32.25
7-Apr-05 31.98 32.70 31.96 32.67 22,276,600 32.43
6-Apr-05 32.30 32.53 32.05 32.11 24,535,500 31.88
5-Apr-05 32.06 32.42 31.95 32.09 30,449,500 31.86
4-Apr-05 32.22 32.25 31.74 32.06 24,185,500 31.83
1-Apr-05 32.73 32.85 31.96 32.08 30,704,800 31.85
--------------------------------------------------
31-Mar-05 32.85 32.85 32.44 32.53 27,448,500 32.29
30-Mar-05 32.33 32.90 32.22 32.89 25,889,800 32.65
29-Mar-05 32.50 32.72 32.06 32.17 28,847,100 31.94
28-Mar-05 32.73 33.10 32.54 32.56 18,506,400 32.32
24-Mar-05 32.85 32.90 32.55 32.65 22,914,500 32.41
23-Mar-05 32.08 32.74 32.06 32.51 35,789,600 32.27
22-Mar-05 32.77 32.86 32.02 32.04 27,454,200 31.81
21-Mar-05 32.55 32.78 32.12 32.48 32,167,100 32.24
18-Mar-05 32.77 32.91 32.35 32.44 28,613,700 32.20
17-Mar-05 32.66 32.97 32.57 32.72 24,386,700 32.48
PS, thats right,
til the end of qrt then south,
my recommendation for trend traders (if you have longs) to hold them til end of qrt and shorts are ok intraday only,
and i see the COT report is fairly even,
i'll be back some time tis w/e with smh projections,
position is long BA, the rest is in cash waiting for a good short entry
semiconductors are not gonna explode
it is only testing the mid-bollingers,
and have ya all heard about the MSFT delay? how many chips are now shelved?
QQQQ close at 41.24
i day symmetrical pettarn that broke about 12:30 et, 1day,5min,prophet.net
Bullish indeed
i like the face on that chart, and if you look closely, it has a tear on the left side.
lets put it all together, (techs) based on these charts
everything tech is coming to a head, i have 2 trendlines, a support line, a bull flag and a possible Q's RSI-5 play to boot. What would you do (not you)? short at the lines? i think not.
will this be the rally to nasdaq 2600, no i don't think so, especialy if we get this bounce before tax season (apr15)
i have an SMH final target of 33, which is not unreasonable to cover in one week or one month,
Tax season; i believe tax season will be the bottom of this bear trap and well have a final rally to nasdaq 2600 before the doomsday scenario materializes.
ndx repost
sox repost
smh repost
yes, he is a beginner,
i taught that boy everything he knows about h/s patterns
a good bounce,
smh will only bounce unless it takes the weekly stoch with it.
NDX bullish (chart)
i'm sure there is merit to this chart? if the line is tested again and holds. then the bulls can sing loudly.
as for me, i'll be looking for a it to test and hold near my numbers, SMH $34.43
SMH & bollingers (chart)
price is moving away from lower bollinger and during a downtrend, the next logical target is mid-line, i would rather short semis at midline or long at the next lower bollinger, which ever is first,
also, the link shows weekly cci, weekly stoch and daily macd, look for those signals to break out for a rally confirmation (no time frame)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p59722979453
AMD buy/cover
i see 33.70-33.84 could be more, but i'll cover now, it moves too fast for me and no time to watch, next buy is $32-33
SOX support at 475 (chart)
i borrowed this bullish wedge from robert new, i do not use it and do know how reliable they are.
but, it coinsides with sox support at 475, SMH November gap at $34.43, SMH 1year lower trendline and SMH weekly lower bollinger.
SMH bottom target is still $33, but i believe at this juncture $sox-475 will be the first 3 day bounce to daily mid-bollingers $36.75 and/or weekly mid-bollingers $37.41,
SMH at support
SMH 1yr (repost)
oh i see, we've got all the jokers and comedians posting tonite, it is kinda funny, especialy that msft hairball
gloe, thats one way to put it...eom
euterpe1 AMD
i'm currently short on AMD, and would like to buy/cover at 33.90,
$33 would be nice, but i won't push my luck
Q's 42
Q's do not seem to like the high altitude,
also after all my smh work this week, i missed the run this morning, but not a problem, i shorted AMD at 35.65, easy pick'ns
S&P and BA
i suspect the BA's and CAT's are propping up the S&P & DOW, i don't know CAT's fundimentals but BA is going back to being #1 plane maker, makes money, new products, great ratings. I initaily thought it was going to $70, i picked it up after breaking $75.
It is flying high and i do not know for how long. The point is; S&P will stay up until the the BA's and CAT's cave-in
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symbol=BA&period=DAILY&years=0&months=3&days=0&id...
bounces
all i see are bounces or weak index upside, we are too close to tax season for a major rally
wonderboy, SMH upside
based on your charts smh is a buy with a minimum upside target of mid-bollingers (weekly)
i will be adding longs at $35 or below, this morning or at the close, for a 2day bounce only (no rally)
here is another bullish chart (ref fishbait chart)
euterpe1, semis and comp
i think the comp will break-out with the help of semis, but the upside is limited
SOX
another way to look at todays sox action is it tested resistance
fishbait sox support
i like your chart,the fib and the rsi, and see how you got suporrt.
however, i see sox support at 475 plus the gap to close at 443, 61.8%,
at best sox travels sideways 1-2 weeks to mid bollingers
omandan, NASDAQ going up?
i suppose the bulls have a point there, the weekly $comp shows an ascending triangle and its daily chart shows a bullish rectangle. I believe they will break to the top-side.
my question for all;
will the Q's also break to the topside? and which way for the semiconductors? and can the Q's and SMH go down while the nas goes up?
my call is, SMH/SOX have more downside to go,
SMH target update,
getting closer, initial downside target is Nov gap $34.43- $34.96, with h/s pattern target of $33, my only concern is a fake-up from the weekly williams, before initial target is met.
SMH daily
SMH weekly
QQQQ and SMH (chart)
Are there similarities with Q's and SMH pattern? The points to look at are 1,3,4,5 in relation to bollingers.
SMH
bulls could make an upside case from fridays spikey candle above the lower bollinger,(its similar to OCT 2005) however the smh bottom is not in yet til we get a double bottom plus weekly upside stoch.
SMH
the last chart (is also) a pretty good idea of smh direction. it depends where you draw the lower line. Again, look for support from the weekly stoch for long positions
QQQQ
SMH
SMH 2yr
ok cad
WOWwee, the big bull calling it in...