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Cabos goes on all the boards and continuously posts about the J.T. Burnette investigation. Especially only shows up when the stock is performing irregularly. I encourage people to do their own research as everything is transparent in all the filings. It’s all explained. Cabos will also go on about how “you don’t live in Florida, so how do you know what’s happening” or state that he knows the people under investigation and knows what the outcome will be. Obvious lies. The only negative outcome would be J.T. Burnette goes to Jail and Kim divorces him, and that doesn’t affect us lol.
Kim Rivers is on the board in Florida with the commissioner of agriculture, a recent development. Trulieve Is the leader in medical MJ in Florida, without Trulieve, Florida would barely have a program. Just reference the weekly dispensed OMMU figures. Business is as usual with Kim, traveling to conferences, probably making deals, opening more and more dispensaries, etc. doesn’t seem like Burnette is affecting her business commitments much.
Anyway, gets tiresome constantly having to read fear monger posts on something that has nothing to do with Trulieves business, especially when Kim’s legal team was assured she wasn’t a target by the prosecutors team. But anyway, do your research. It’s not that difficult.
November 4th is Burnettes trial, the other two are sentenced around the third week of November I believe off the top of my head. I hope it’s finished at that time, so I can stop reading or debating this lol.
Thanks for the information. Perhaps using other contractors, or simply haven’t secured the other locations as of yet. Clearwater opening up soon brings us to 31. I’m expecting another by end of August bringing us to 32. Would mean we need to pump out 3 more Dispensaries a month from September to end of December to meet our mark of 44.
Also, looking for an update on the 750k sqft facility development on their 82acre property in Jefferson County. Opening up in 250k sqft portions until completed. Would bring total cultivation capacity to 1.46 Million sqft. Would definitely help us out on the demand.
Great things coming. Can’t wait for 20$ and to stay there.
Shoot I had fun picking up 100 share lots on Friday. Super cheap, didn’t think we’d see these prices. But I’m okay with it. If it stays here first of the week, I’ll be buying more.
7.00 would put Trulieve at a 771 Million dollar market cap lol remember that.
That would be a ludacris valuation on a Company pulling 54-60million USD a quarter expected for Q2 period ending June 30 lol.
I heard some comments about appearing on Mad Money on Wednesday. But don’t know how factual it is. I did some looking around, and can’t find anything legitimate on it. Would be awesome though, appear on Mad Money Wednesday and get some exposure right in the middle of blow out earnings.
Yea I pulled the trigger today. Picked up 320 total shares in three lots to add towards my swing position. Got some at 9.38, some at 9.25, and a little at 9.60. Pretty happy with it. Gonna sit tight now and be ready for this reversal. But keeping my core long term position where it is.
Oh boy oh boy, wasn’t sure if we’d get these prices again. But I’ll take em!
Oh yea man, got that powder ready lol
If I can get more below 9 or near 9 flat. I’ll be all about it. I’m all about buying the fear.
Vast majority of volume came from anonymous dumping/covering
Holdhigh. I believe you are correct
Stock is young. Had only 2 real “break outs” so far. And about a 6 month down trend. We just moved to the top tier OTC, registered with the SEC.
Some saying 11.30-11.60 is the next breakout trigger. That if we pass that resistance in the next couple weeks we could see a strong bull run.
I personally think we will have a very interesting rest of the year. Not worried about the whole coke heads and otcx, valx, entities that Ian goes on about all the time lol
Real numbers, Real financial discipline, and real shareholder friendly execution. That’s what will drive us to the next level. And so far this year, Kim and management have done great.
Good times ahead.
I’m not expecting anything either. And I’m with ya, hopefully we uptrend into earnings, would be nice to see. And uplisting should definitely help!
Figured I’d touch on the J.T. Burnette thing. Since it will be continuously brought up until it’s over. He appeared today in court regarding an extension on trial until 2020. Due to the prosecutors providing over a million documents and transcripts as well as hours upon hours of audio with no transcripts.
Motion to extend was denied. Trial date will proceed as normal for November 4th.
While leaving the courthouse, Jansen said he will be ready for trial as the court has ordered. "Every day we are finding more exculpatory evidence."
Can’t wait for this to be over lol and to stop hearing about it.
https://amp.tallahassee.com/amp/1930712001?__twitter_impression=true
Great news. One other thing I see that I really like, is Kim’s comments states two more states by the end of 2019. Means we have a lot of news coming. We needed this uplisting to add too our credibility as a public company.
Drew5.
Yeaa it was 365 average. I use 100 to be conservative. People make returns as well. I can’t remember who it was I got it from, and which message board it was. They used it to put together projections of 54.8mil on Q2. I did the same math and liked how he did it, which is why I’m sticking with 54mil for Q2.
I’d have to go back and do some digging to find where the average spend per customer is. Again, I just use 100 per month as a conservative number to keep things realistic and to never be disappointed haha.
Think about it.
increase in patients
March to April - 12,296
April to May - 11,610
May to June - 10,862
June to July - 11,366
Total patients as of 31 July = 192,386
Assume an average of an additional 11,000 patients per month from 1Aug going forward to 31Dec.
11,000(5) = 55,000 + 192,386 = 247,386 patients going into January 2020.
247,386(100 per month) = 24,738,600 per month or 72.4mil a quarter going forward from 1Jan2020.
24,738,600 = 296,863,200.
296,863,200USD in revenues to be expected going forward from 1Jan2020. Revenues only from Florida
Real profits, Real numbers, Real Money.
We will have our day soon enough.
I’ll try and post some numbers later. But long story short.
192,386 patients. Say they spend a monthly average of 100USD. That would put us on track for 192,386(100) = 19,238,600 per month. Or almost 231 Million per year. 100 per month is conservative imo.
Really feel like Trulieve will beat forward guidance this year.
Not selling a share for less then 20.00USD. Nothing less then 30USD on my long position. Thing with Trulieve, I have noticed. Is the the IR and PRs are very quiet. You never can expect news, when big news comes, it will just catch everyone off guard. That’s a fact imo. 20USD would have us at a MC of just a lil over 2bil. Totally reasonable, and the reason all the analysts are 20+USD.
When we finish out the year, and make say 240mil. 84mil net with a .75EPS. This will start turning around, it just has too! lol. At 30x alone that eps would be 22.50USD. And that’s using 112mil O/S in the math. No wonder warrants on the 70mil raise were exercisable at 13.00USD lol.
Trulieve in the 9’s and below are a no brainer imo. And 10’s are a gift.
Looking forward to July Form 7
Also notice how OMMU states 31 locations for Trulieve. Not sure why. But the same thing was apparent last week when we reported 30. Perhaps OMMU is showing approved locations now as well? Like how Lakeland is currently under construction?
Just Florida haha
I’m still thinking 54mil for the Q2.
Doing some number crunching for July now that we have Flower listed on OMMU. For the past 3 weeks using an average sale price on CBD, THC, and Flower per gram from the main website.
Concentrate average = 70$ per gram
CBD= 50$ per gram
Flower= 14$ per gram or 448 per ounce
THC
35,590,842mg = 35,591 = 2,491,370
34,602,343mg = 34,602 = 2,244,140
34,602,569mg = 34,603 = 2,422,210
Total: 7,157,720
Flower
5,536 Oz = 2,480,128
5,268 Oz = 2,360,064
5,373 Oz = 2,407,104
Total: 7,247,296
CBD
585,544mg = 586g = 29,300
613,390mg = 613g = 30,650
589,032mg = 589g = 29,450
Total: 89,400
3 Weeks = 14,494,416 USD.
Absolutely killing it.
Found in the comments on a post from the official Trulieve Facebook. That a Lakeland location is under construction right now. So, have that to look forward too as well.
Not concerned regardless. I agree with your previous posts, money will talk. This will realize more reasonable values as we continue to display profitable growth and continued shareholder friendly moves and expansion.
Interesting that they release earnings after market close. With a conference call the following morning. Definitely different from what they normally do. But I also like seeing them giving a good guidance on earnings release.
Hahahahaha oh yea I’m with ya.
I expect 30 before December 2020. Hopeful lol. But 2020 I believe will be a wild year for cannabis due to U.S. elections.
saw your 3 separate consecutive posts on the matter on yahoo discussion board this morning. It is a relevant concern to a degree. But further investigation into the matter will reveal that Kim Rivers is legally obligated to inform the board of any developments of the investigation on her husband, If it links her to any of the accusations against Burnette, or the business. Most recently authorities advised her that she is not a target of the on-going investigation, late April/May if I recall.
The recent shareholder meeting, the board elected Kim as CEO, 98 or 99% I believe. So the board is obviously confident. I don't believe any of this is a real concern for Trulieve, and not related to Trulieve.
However, you are right. Perception does have a lot to do with buying. And bears, or those who want to hold the stock down to get cheap shares, absolutely love stuff like this. It gives them something to continuously post about every two-three weeks when an update occurs.
Unfortunately it will be continuously brought up, until it's over.
Excellent. Do you have a source to that information? Jefferson County completion by Q4 2019 would be very fast. I was expecting them to have that up and running by mid 2020.
IIP deal
11% annual base rent
Total investment of 43.5mil
11% of 43.5mil is 4,785,000 per year, or roughly 400,000 per month.
The term of the initial lease is 10 years. With an initial extension under the same terms possible for 18 months.
So what’s IIP getting out of it?
1. 4,785,000(10) = 47,850,000USD or a 4,350,000 profit from the initial 10 year investment.
2. immediate 18 month extension on lease under same terms after the first 10 year agreement. A 7,177,500USD profit. Or total 11,527,500USD return on investment after 11.5 years, should Trulieve decide to extend agreement.
3. Two options to extend by 5 years after the first 10 years, and after electing the first extension above. (Not sure if under the same terms). Should Trulieve decide to elect.
4. Should Trulieve decide to lease the Massachusetts facility under the same terms, for the entirety of the agreement as it stands... which would be a total of 21.5 years. Would equal to a total return on investment of 59,377,500USD.
The case for Trulieve
1. Non-dilutive immediate funding for 126,000sqft cultivation and processing facility. Allowing speedy entry into new market, executing in a shareholder friendly manner.
2. Competitive 11% annual rate secured for at least 11.5 years. With the option to extend agreement for another 10 years after.
3. Trulieve recently conducted a raise, pocketing 68 Million USD. The raise included warrants, exercisable at 13.00USD. Once Exercised, would add only 1,740,000 shares. Another shareholder friendly move with very minimal dilution.
4. Agreement allows Trulieve to utilize the 68 Million recently raised for other purposes. Such as Dispensary buildout in Massachusetts, Florida Dispensary expansion or Jefferson County Florida 750,000sqft cultivation expansion, as well as other acquisition activity.
5. After initial 10 year agreement at 11%. One has to assume changes in banking legislation will have occurred. One can assume Trulieve will be operating in a much larger fashion, with a much larger cash position. Should federal and banking laws change, and Trulieve has cheaper rates available by large institutions... one can also assume a sort of re-purchase of the facility, or a large reduction on the 11% annual rent. Using the above figures on total return on investment IIP would get, we can draw a picture as to what a re-purchase would cost Trulieve.
6. Let’s not forget Trulieve holds 3 Medical and 3 Recreational licenses in Massachusetts.
Some thoughts regarding 2020.
* Trulieve developing 24,000sqft cultivation capacity in Florida right now. Which they estimate will provide an additional 2,860kg. Refer to July investors deck.
Say 72,000sqft is used for cultivation. Using the same above figures would equal 8,580kg. Or 8,580,000 grams per year.
Average flower per gram is around 14 bucks in Florida I believe. So let’s go cheap and say 12 per gram for flower in Massachusetts.
8,580,000(12) = 102,960,000 per year worth of product. Assume they sell 60% of their total year output.
60%= 61,776,000 USD in their pockets, say 35% is net profit, that would equal 21,621,000 per year.
These numbers are conservative... using speculative flower prices... not even including concentrates. So the above numbers I expect will be much higher. But using them, you can draw a sort of picture as to why this is a good deal for not only Trulieve, but also its long term shareholders.
Keep in mind. That Gov DeSantis has appealed the states ruling on the unconstitutionality of the current medical MJ set up. So still a ways to go on that process.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/07/26/mass-banks-credit-unions-expand-services-for-marijuana-companies/CL5LnZ7mJT1BQmMHkQrSSL/story.html?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&fbclid=IwAR2C7pzXkE44Pe2MhOO2FBnwbwYp5SrRqDc4oZkxQpyH8pEGA1TbgMbj3iM
Interesting development while they are building out in the state.
Cura had a good week. Must of had some sales going on, also, I’m aware they discount product heavily to try and get it off the shelves.
Trulieve
Down 226mgs THC from last week
Up 24,367mgs more CBD from last week
Down 105 ounces flower this week
Pretty meaningless change. I’d say Curaleaf is the closest competition since surterra didn’t seem to sell much flower.
Curaleaf
Up 677,610mgs THC this week
Up 70,486mgs CBD this week
Up 605 Ounces this week
Note
This week, Trulieve sold over 4x the nearest competition in mgs dispensed THC
And Trulieve sold 2.6x total Ozs flower dispensed this week then the nearest competition.
Yup up almost 11% from yesterday when it touched 9. Bounces hard. I have a swing trade position open outside my core position that I’m holding for the long run. Always easy money on that swing position.
Chatter on Trulieve FB shows we should expect another store opening probably next week.
“That’s right, I spotted you changing the windows to the Trulieve logo!”
Fernandina beach/Yulee. One commented soon another user said 31July. So will be nice to see some news soon.
Figured I’d break down this lock-up for those that are confused about the slow unlocking of these shares. Anyone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. But it all adds up to me.
O/S = 110,132,168
Issued = 32,224,527
Reserved for issuance = 77,907,641
“effective immediately, in respect of 65,253,093 subordinate voting shares of the Company (on an as-converted basis)”
77,907,641-65,253,093 = 12,654,548
From what I get out of this, 12,654,548 shares will not be held to the voluntary share lock-up agreement.
This would bring the total issued shares to approximately 44,879,075 shares.
“Effective January 25, 2020, an additional 15%, or 11,205,960, of the subordinate voting shares of the Company subject to the lockup agreement shall be released from the restrictions of the lockup agreement.”
25Jan2020 total issued = 56,085,035
44,879,075+11,205,960 = 56,085,035
“54,047,133 of the subordinate voting shares of the Company shall remain subject to the lockup agreement restrictions until July 25, 2020.”
56,085,035 + 54,047,133 = 110,132,168
It all adds up in the end because again... today... total O/S is 110,132,168.
Reminder: Recent raise issued 1,740,000 warrants with an exercise price of around 13.00 USD.
Once those warrants are exercised, would bring total O/S to 111,872,168.
https://www.trulieve.com/investors/news-releases/trulieve-cannabis-corp-announces-extension-of-voluntary-lock-up-agreements-with-company-founders?locale=en
https://thecse.com/en/listings/life-sciences/trulieve-cannabis-corp-subordinate-voting-shares
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/trulieve-prices-75-million-debt-and-warrant-offering/
Important to note as well that someone shorted about 3mil in debentures. So some hedging might be going on. Big betting on the unlock causing shorterm downward pressure. Rightfully so.