Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Market is in rally mode. AMBS is going to be too.
If the market can get a footing under it then anything that has held up well should see a nice move higher. I think this could coincide with Thanksgiving next week. It just so happens there will be a lot of news coming out next week for AMBS.
AMBS is clearly setting itself up for a partnership with a larger pharma company. Remember what Rubinfeld said:
"I have reviewed a great number of technologies in my 45 year career in the biopharmaceutical field, and I believe that MANF could be one of the biggest successes that I have ever seen. The fundamental scientific premise of reducing protein misfolding is basic, yet very profound. The data, while early, demonstrates very clearly at the cellular level and in animals that MANF reduces apoptosis, improves cellular function, and restores behavioural deficits in a number of disease models, including Parkinson's, Stroke, Myocardial Infarction and Traumatic Brain Injury. These are all indications with very large markets and clear unmet medical need. I believe that if we are able to further de-risk MANF with positive toxicology studies and early clinical data, the Company's new orphan drug strategy could get MANF to market rather expeditiously. MANF has the commercial potential to become a blockbuster drug."
The most recent advisors added to the board are:
*Dr Joseph Rubinfeld - co-founder of Amgen
*Clinton Allen - Bristol Myers Squibb, Director of Product Development and Commercialization, Director of In-licensing and Business Development
*Dr. Robert Zimmerman - Vice President of Biotechnology Research at Bayer Corporation
Keep in mind what Mr. Zimmerman said:
"I have been involved with Amarantus formally and informally for the past three years supporting the founders as they work tirelessly to advance MANF to a stage where it has real commercial potential," said Robert J. Zimmerman, SD. "While that effort has been centered on Parkinson's disease, I believe additional opportunities exist to diversify this therapeutic candidate. Ischemia/reperfusion, cardiovascular disease, stroke, traumatic brain injury, diabetes and potentially other disease conditions appear to be impacted by MANF based upon preclinical studies and the literature."
They stated in their press release that "Dr. Zimmerman will also assist in the procurement of relationships with top-tier vendors".
Additionally, they are pursuing an Orphan Drug strategy with MANF which many investors seem to have forgotten about.
And don't forget their patents on MANF which don't expire until 2031:
“Today’s announcement is transformational for Amarantus from a scientific data standpoint,” said Gerald E. Commissiong, President & CEO of Amarantus. “Despite the many clear scientific
advantages we believe MANF possesses over GDNF, most notably impacting protein folding and modulating toxic calcium levels, the Company had previously been unable to point to a definitive behavioural animal model data to show improved benefit of MANF over GDNF in the Parkinson’s disease indication. The data we now have validates the approach we have been taking over the last several years, and we believe that it will allow us to attract the interest of investment firms and potential partners who will be able to now characterize the substantial opportunity our technology represents. We believe that we are well positioned to leverage the MANF opportunity for Amarantus shareholders and Parkinson’s patients because of the expansive intellectual property (IP) portfolio the Company owns, including composition of matter patents in the US and Europe, use patents worldwide and provisional delivery dosing patents that have been filed based on today’s data, extending marketing exclusivity for MANF through 2031. This IP position may make MANF more attractive to a potential partner than other neurotrophic factors in development that do not have the same patent runway.”"
This was confirmed that the presentation date is actually the 18th. There was some confusion that there were presentations on a Sunday. I confirmed with CNS Summit as well that they are presenting on the 18th (Sunday). John Commissiong is flying out tomorrow to present on Sunday. Per Gerald they didn't confirm that they would present until last night because they were focused primarily on getting the financing deal done.
Here is Gerald's response to our inquiry:
"I spoke with John and he said he was confirmed to present. I believe the time is still yet to be determined due to the last minute nature of the booking. I'll update you tomorrow. I would have gotten back to you sooner, but just landed in NYC after our board meeting, which covered the task of bringing in new blood to oversee the collaboration/product development side. Thanks for your great interest and for being a shareholder.
Best Regards,
Gerald
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry "
Apple tested a major low from 5/18 of $522. If this bull market lives it will do so on the back of a big rally in apple shares. Probably tomorrow. This should spark at least a short rally in the markets. I believe there's a decent chance we see $0.10 next week if the market can rally. Lots of weak hands got shaken out yesterday. Throw in some overall bullish sentiment in the markets and people will be looking to gobble up stocks that have held up well over the past month.
Think about this: The stock is up 50% from early last week despite fears about financing and a stock market tanking. Give it a week or two and this might just make another massive run. At some point soon the market will reverse course and people will get giddy about buying stocks.
There will be plenty of shakeouts as the turnaround happens; however, the company (and stock) has turned the corner. Some people will be taking profits and trading it but the big money will be made buying and holding. This is the perfect example of a stock that has excessive bearishness because of prior missteps. You can see it in the posts on this message board or on the Yahoo boards or Seeking Alpha any time someone says something positive.
I confirmed earlier that they were a late addition to the presenters on the 18th, not the 19th. They were invited to present and confirmed late yesterday after receiving funding.
"In addition, President & CEO Gerald E. Commissiong expects to update shareholders regarding corporate development plans and strategies going forward for Amarantus following the release of the Company's quarterly financial report, expected early next week."
Should be interesting to hear their development plans/strategies now that they have the new advisors on board and the financing in place.
I confirmed that they were a late add. John Commissiong is flying down tomorrow for the presentation. I still can't ignore the comments from Joseph Rubinfeld:
"I have reviewed a great number of technologies in my 45 year career in the biopharmaceutical field, and I believe that MANF could be one of the biggest successes that I have ever seen. The fundamental scientific premise of reducing protein misfolding is basic, yet very profound. The data, while early, demonstrates very clearly at the cellular level and in animals that MANF reduces apoptosis, improves cellular function, and restores behavioural deficits in a number of disease models, including Parkinson's, Stroke, Myocardial Infarction and Traumatic Brain Injury. These are all indications with very large markets and clear unmet medical need. I believe that if we are able to further de-risk MANF with positive toxicology studies and early clinical data, the Company's new orphan drug strategy could get MANF to market rather expeditiously. MANF has the commercial potential to become a blockbuster drug."
Yesterday's drop definitely makes things a lot more interesting. Not only does it clear out a lot of weak longs but it radically changes the sentiment. Now people aren't pumping endlessly; rather, they are skeptical which is always needed for a stock to rise.
The way I see it:
1.) The financing is now out of the way
2.) They now have some big name directors / advisors on board with good connections that might help in developing a partnership, including the co-founder of Amgen who stated:
"I have reviewed a great number of technologies in my 45 year career in the biopharmaceutical field, and I believe that MANF could be one of the biggest successes that I have ever seen...I believe that if we are able to further de-risk MANF with positive toxicology studies and early clinical data, the Company's new orphan drug strategy could get MANF to market rather expeditiously. MANF has the commercial potential to become a blockbuster drug."
3.) They have a big upcoming catalyst with histology data being presented in December
It seems that the reason the stock dropped was because authorized shares went up so much, but this doesn't mean that outstanding rose. It was pretty obvious before in their filings that they were going to do a financing event so they would have to dilute and increase authorized share count. So this seems to me to be panic selling. I think Rubinfeld's comments above are more important than a one day reaction in the stock.
Yep. Don't forget what Rubinfeld said "MANF has the commercial potential to become a blockbuster drug." These new investors got shares at $0.051 and $0.10. Plus they have been raising capital in piecemeal rather than doing an excessive dilution. Just because they have 1 billion A/S doesn't mean O/S is 1 Billion.
Throw in what is now excessive pessimism on the stock and you have a recipe for a much higher move.
ha. whoops...i meant to type $0.40.
wow. If that's true that's pretty damn impressive
Looks like a pump and dmp to me.
read the SEC filings. They have about 7 million shares outstanding right now and with all convertibles exercised they would have about 20 million. However, the exercise price on the first tranche is $18 and the next is $30ish. again, go to www.sec.gov and see for yourself.
John Commissiong is pretty legit. He has been published numerous times. Here is an older publication from 2006:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1471-4159.1990.tb04575.x/abstract
Another on from 1993:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/j543855l55g77287/
Another from 1994:
http://www.jneurosci.org/content/14/8/4769.full.pdf
we have already discussed convertible notes here. the market cap is about $100 million after convertibles (which by the way are convertible at $18 and $30). convertible notes have little impact on a stock after the stock begins moving higher. focus more on price to sales.
I think this pr will be perceived as bad but mjff did say MANF "is a potentially promising tropic factor". coupled with rubinfeld's comments ("MANF has the commercial potential to be a blockbuster drug" and "I believe that MANF could be one of the biggest successes that I have ever seen") I find it almost comical that ambs is only worth $9 million.
The filing today suggests major events happening within 30 days:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/121108/ambs8-k.html
Throw in comments from rubinfeld (from Amgen) and comments from Michael j fox foundation about how promising MANF is and it's astounding how cheap this is at a $7 million market cap.
going to be down about 10 to 20% tomorrow
Michael J. Fox Foundation & AMBS:
https://www.michaeljfox.org/foundation/grant-detail.php?grant_id=644
why not $1 Trillion!?
Good interview with Welch from Friday 11/2/12:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/yrc-trailers-backed-up-after-sandy-ceo-says-6Z5lRRQuQiu~VDRfemN1tA.html
Guy seems like a straight shooter.
Slow, steady climb. That's what I'm expecting over the course of the next several months. Never any big daily runs that land it on the leading gainers list...just slow and steady stealth move higher. The fact is this company is within spitting distance of positive net income after years of massive losses. They have insider buying. They have no major debt deadlines for the next 2 years. And they're trading at 0.01 price to sales (vs $0.40 or so for industry) and an equally ridiculous 0.20 times trailing twelve months EBIDTA (vs 7 or so for industry).
The bigger players know that this is a huge winner...they will do their best to get people out of their positions. sell it off to $6 again? Sure why not? Ultimately, though, it will see at least 4 fold higher prices.
Patience. Ain't gonna happen today. They need to hold it down for bigger players to buy.
They will try to shake this sucker out...be patient and don't waver. Operating results have officially turned the corner.
They will try to shake people out as much as they can but the valuation of this company is kind of ridiculous, especially now that they're about to turn a net profit.
If they can turn a profit, which is highly likely now, this stock could be in the $30 to $40 price range. Very impressive.
These guys are pretty damn close to turning a profit now...only $6 Million loss. Operating income was almost twice as high as last quarter. This looks very promising.
Just busting you. I agree...looks good to go but will be volatile as heck.
flip a coin....
looks like you called the top!
earnings on 11/2/12
News out from S&P:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/idUSWNA774520121017
While they said that there are still doubts about ability to repay debt due 2 years from now, they're also actually acknowledging some positive developments. For a stock priced at a ridiculously low valuation any whiff of good news will send this much higher.
"However, the company's operating performance and liquidity have
improved over the last few quarters and we could raise the ratings if YRC
Worldwide Inc. addresses its significant debt maturities in 2014, maintains
adequate covenant cushion, and operating performance continues to strengthen
despite a sluggish economy."
I kind of like the fact they're acknowledging that operations have improved. I'm not so sure the market is pricing this in with the stock trading at 0.01 times sales (vs 0.30 to 0.60 on others in the industry). They very well could maneuver through this period, extend maturities again, and return to profitability. If that happens the stock will be up ten fold.
not sure about that. will see over the coming quarters' results. i own a retail business and we ship nationwide. we've used YRC from time to time and i have noticed that they're actively promoting their business a lot more than they have in the past. it doesn't mean much but it at least tells me they give a sh*t.
t think welch has stabilized the business. if they report another quarter or two of positive operating trends eventually people will mark the stock up. the valuation is dirt cheap for a reason (i.e., lots of debt). however, i've seen plenty of businesses over the past 5 years that have completely turned around their business under just as bad conditions as YRCW had. SIRI is one that comes to mind. BONT is another. those stocks absolutely skyrocketed higher.