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We will take any luck we can get! Good luck Rodin - and good luck to all CYTR stakeholders. As Knox likes to say - SOONer or LADR this will all play out!
So I overanalyzing sometimes, and a lot of times it means nothing.....but for being a notoriously shorted stock over the years with Penny stock type volatility, CYTR has been a steady Eddy as far as I can see. Over the past 10 trading days the average close is .57679. The highest close during this time was only 4% from the average and the lowest close was only 4% from the average. The past 20 trading days has been at an average of .58178. Once again, the highest close was also only 4% over this average and the lowest close was only 4.95%. After seeing 2 days in a row now, what appears to be a false floor, it leads me to believe that 1. They don't want it dropping out of the this general area and 2. Due to no book mark for a ceiling, they don't care if it rises, or more likely, don't think it will raise. Could be another indicator (possibly) of a quiet period which is primarily used to try and keep a consistent PPS until whatever news the quiet period is for is released.
We can all hope anyway! All just my opinions and I am no professional. Good luck to all. Also, sorry if my rambling makes no sense!
Just FYI - That 193k bid is no longer showing. Looks like they pulled it.
Not sure what kind of NOLS CYTR is holding? They can definitely add value though. I am in another biotech that was able to sell a portion of their 2018 NOLs to a BF buyer at 86% (give or take, but was in this range). It helped raised some much needed cash at ye. In short, I completely agree with you.....if CYTRX is holding onto some NOLS, they do add value. I would put an 80 - 85% of actual value as an estimated premium. Once again - I am not an expert, just throwing out opinions. FYI - that 193K is still sitting there holding the line at .565. Good luck to all!
I agree LADA will be the driving force behind a possible BO. If, and it's a big if, BP thinks the milestones are Rock solid to come through, the most CYTR could get is 80% of the value after taxes IMO. Odds are, if it's BP, they are making money, so using aldox as an example - if $363M is sure thing, after taxes it would be around $286.7M. But BP won't pay dollar for dollar or no upside, so probably 80% or around $230M.
More likely, if BO, it will be for LADR + CVR's for current products in trials. Just throwing in my 2 cents for what it's worth. No doubt a BO would significantly exceed the current MC. By how much I really just don't know. All just my opinions and I am no expert! Good luck to you and everyone else. Better days are coming!
Required - No. Typical - Yes. His employment agreement was distributed via an 8K. Him leaving solidifies what we already know IMO. CYTR has some assets, and they are shopping those assets as opposed to trying to further their development. Just can't get my head around a value is all. They have a couple drugs licensed out with milestones and royalties. What is this worth to BP? None of this is guaranteed regardless of what we think. Do they sell their owned technology, which still requires continued development and attach a couple CVR's to be paid if/When existing licensed product come to fruition? Man this is a tough one for me to grasp. Not being negative, just trying to sort this out. FYI, 193K still sitting there at .565. Good luck!
Still sitting there which is a lot longer than yesterday. We will see if they intend on buying or not as the day goes on. Could be someone setting a floor for some reason or another. I see they let Kratz employment agreement expire. I would have thought an 8k would have been submitted (unless I missed it). If any other stock, I would think they are in a quiet period with substantial news coming. But I have learned to be cautiously optimistic (emphasis on the cautious part) when dealing with CYTRX. Good luck to you and everyone else!
It's back. 193K at .565 is showing on ARCA.
Sorry for double reply. Phone acting funny and didn't think the first one went through.
I did see that bid pop up, but I also saw it get removed after a few minutes. When I see that, the conspiracy theorist in me always assumes someone (some kind if institution in my mind) is communicating through the bid/ask. Not saying good or bad, just that I always assume something nefarious is going on when I see that action. I mean, obviously they had no real intention of buying.... volume didn't even hit half that..... Hopefully they were communicating good news....but I just don't trust that kind of action. Regardless, good luck to you!
I did see that bid pop up, but I also saw it get removed after a few minutes. When I see that, the conspiracy theorist in me always assumes someone (some kind if institution in my mind) is communicating through the bid/ask. Not saying good or bad, just that I always assume something nefarious is going on. Regardless, good luck to you!
I do. Problem is FDA usually takes up to 30 days to respond. I think meeting by end of January, PR feedback first or second week of March. Just my guess.
That is basically what I was saying. If approved for all indications including icu and oncology we are really looking good. But the FDA can be fickle. The trial was for hemodialysis only. FDA can either:
1. Approve for all indications with broad label. (Best case for shareholders.)
2. Approve for all indications with an ongoing phase IV for oncology.
3. Approve hemo only and require phase III for oncology. In this case, oncology could use, but CRMD can't technically market to them and the label would technically be for hemodialysis only.
4. Screw us and require another phase III. (IMO, this is unlikely).
We get the biggest pop with #1, we get crushed with #4. I think 2 and 3 are most likely in my humble opinion.
2 and 3 still have huge upside, I just wouldn't bet on a near term $25 PPS right now is all.
Everything above are just my opinions. Good luck to all!!
I Know you are asking proffetti, but I will take a stab at it. First, there is a very very narrow pathway to get those kind of results. The unlikely very narrow pathway is that FDA approves broad label on this one phase III and approve NDA for all indications. Hypothetically raises MC to $550M or just over $5. Then buyout at ridiculous 500% premium and you are seriously"living the dream".
I am super bullish but have to emphasize that the above results in a short time frame are highly unlikely ( like <1% likely) but it is always fun to speculate winning the lottery.
Good luck to all!!!
Your not kidding about lack of PR. Like I said before, I used to have a large position (at least as far as my portfolio is concerned) and would continually try to contact IR only to receive a number of calls from John Columbia (I think that was his name). We had at least a few conversations that were rather lengthy about really nothing. All he did was down play my concerns and I never got an answer....which is probably good cause he shouldn't have had any answers anyway and shouldn't have even been authorized to discuss with me? It was super shady! Regardless of the past, I do agree with most sentiment that the end is near. Good luck to you! Most of the above are facts, sprinkled in with my humble opinions.
Good to to all!
I really have no idea but here is my uneducated reasoning.
1. Any time a small bio says something big will be completed by a certain time, figure at least one more quarter. Gets us to March 31.
2. Assume 10K and conference call around Mid March....they can't have this call without a deal of some kind can they? The answer is yes, but can you imagine the Q&A if a deal isn't announced? If at all possible, they want at least a deal framework completed and announced prior.
3. Thursdays are good PR days.
4. The hopeful side of me wants this to happen before my March calls expire??.
That narrows me down to March 7 or March 14. I am being optimistic and going with the 7th.
Then again, this is CYTRX, so anything is possible! All just my opinions! Good luck to all!
My concern with ASAP is that while most focus on the S part (Soon), I focus in the P part (possible). I am in business and negotiate deals a lot....FYI, no, I am not an expert and I am not saying I am smart or anything and I have never negotiated in the biotech world....but this deal they are negotiating has to be hard. Assuming they are looking for a buyout, biotech tends to be sold in the 50 - 350% premium range. Yes, there are outliers, but 400% premiums are hard to come by. Small biotechs tend to have a product worth buying with catalysts that drive the MC up some before a BO and small biotechs tend to see the higher end of the premium based on the catalyst driven higher than average PPS. I do think CYTR has the product, just not sure I see any catalysts to drive the MC to a level that allows for a proper BO valuation.
I assume SK and other insiders don't want all their past options to be worthless and most are $14+, and shareholders also want to see a BO in the $14+ range. Convincing BP to buy a company at that kind of premium is really, really hard. The deal with Soon for aldox was at a 92% premium for the shares he purchased. It does seem based on market action that everyone is in waiting mode. If they can pull this off, it would be amazing.
Side note, I did take a position. The above are just my opinions and I am very much so hoping for the best!
Good luck to all shareholders!!!
Side note: Put me down for March 7, 2019 for my "ASAP" Date!
Yep, that about sums it up! Still have a few hurdles till the race is over, and those hurdles will undoubtedly be taken advantage of causing continued volatility.....but IMO, the end is near!
Good luck to all!!
My understanding is that any pre scheduled meeting remains as scheduled and drug reviews will continue if it fills an unmet need. Hopefully both are true of Neutrolin. I still continue to get my FDA updates including drug approvals from the FDA.....if you don't get them and want them, you can sign up on their website for emails. Just my understanding based off of what I have read and I could all be wrong. Good luck!
My uneducated analysis of today's action based only on experience being a long time CRMD holder, but also having a relatively small brain....
CRMD provided only a very small but significant press release.
Pps rose drastically pre market.
We had some who sold the news, but I see big dumps at open. CRMD has shown they take these opportunities to use their ATM. I think they took advantage of the quick rise on small news, but maybe drove it a little too low and engaged stop losses. This sounds bad to some, but we need the money like it or not. Just my guess.
The CC and any FDA news will be the real drivers. Today's upswing showed a portion of the potential PPS with any kind of NDA news. It will come back some and longs will be rewarded in my opinion. On the long way up, day traders will continue to have a field day playing the volatility.
Today is great news and I am really excited about the near and long term! All just my opinions.
Good luck to all!
Boom.
Just wanted to pop in and say farewell to Dr Gelbfish who resigned his position. He was not just a rubber stamp member. He was instrumental in getting CRMD back on track and played a big role in the development of Neutrolin. Sad to see him go, but glad to get CRMD to (what appears to be) the finish line. Good luck everyone!
Taking over the phase 3 trial and cleaning up the CRO's problems didn't help. I don't disagree with what you said but I do anticipate (used lightly) that the burn should start to slow with the phase 3 wrap up. Future burn will depend on how they proceed - partner, take it on themselves, etc. Working through an NDA isn't cheap and while I do think approval for hemo is likely, will the FDA require an additional phase 3 for oncology or possibly an approval with a concurrent phase 4 for other indications? Plus they still have their medical devices to work through (meshes and sutures). The approval pathway for these should also be more clear once FDA makes its decision. I guess what I am getting to is it's hard to determine future burn until we get some answers, but the 5+M in NOLS they sold, the 7.5M deal with Elliot, and a few ATM sells sets them up for at least into Q2 I would assume. All just my opinions! Good luck to you and everyone else!
IMO - and one of the reasons I came back, is not just the steady green, but the trading fundamentals have completely changed. I haven't seen the steady ask pressure continuing to drop by 1/10 of a cent with big bookmarks to stop possible upward momentum as I did in the past. Makes my Spidey senses go off that something may be up finally if Sabby isn't heavily shorting anymore. Yes there isn't a ton of bid pressure, but this is a very good sign IMO. Let's hope it keeps steadily rising! Just my honest opinion. Good luck to all!
Knoxlube - Hope I didn't say anything that came accross wrong. Not my intention if I did. I agree with everything you said in your reply and hope nothing but the best for you and all the longs here! Good luck to you and all!
Couldbebetter - Nice to hear from you! Just wanted to pop in. I told myself I was done with these boards, but had to quickly check in and let the few who were cordial know I am still here. I am still very bullish and think we have only touched the tip of the iceberg in my honest opinion. As far as a deal already in place, I honestly have no idea. Reading between the lines, I see a ton of indicators that would lead me to believe things are lining up for…..something? I hate to speculate cause it could be a buyout, a partnership, or they go alone. I really don’t know except that they have been very clear that they don’t want to go alone. I just hope it isn’t a bad partnership deal that has a small pop, but we never see the real upside (just my opinion) - a good partnership deal is fine, just not a bad one. A few thoughts on current events:
Insider buys are a great sign. A significant number of buys in Q4. Not awards, purchases with their own money.
The Elliot financing deal. This was not the best financing deal in the world, but not horrible either. It seemed to me almost like rewarding Elliot for being there for so long while also raising much needed funds to help out the balance sheet.
Institutional ownership keeps rising and I anticipate it will.
To wrap up 1,2, & 3 - follow the smart money!
Most won’t like this one, but like it or not, these nanocap biotechs raise money by selling shares and I always assume they need them all just to be sure I don’t get burned. I was a little nervous in their ability to get to this point with what was on the shelf, but looks like we are in pretty good shape as of right now.
Over the past 12 months, Liz and Paul have shown to be outstanding additions. Not sure when you entered, but I wish they were here prior as I rode CRMD from .75 down to .175 before bouncing back. They have a good team with a lot of connections. Upper mgmt still hasn’t earned by trust, but the team they built has.
The FDA has repeatedly said that they are focused on finding and quickly approving drugs in the infection arena. Listen, this is the FDA, so nothing is fast - ever, but this is a good indicator that we may get a break or two if the Neutrolin results are as good as we all assume
I just think everything is lining up pretty good. With that said, and I don’t want to start a political debate, but they gotta get the government open or that may be an unanticipated delay if we can’t have recurring communication and meetings. Just a couple quick opinions on recent events. I am still very bullish! Everything above is just my opinion and I am not a professional! I am not going to post much, but I will check in. If you ever have a question or want my foolish opinions, feel free to reply to any of my posts. Enough rambling from me! Good luck to everyone whether you own 1 share or a million shares!
You kidding, you're one of the reasons I came back! Everyone was jumping the on the bandwagon after the interim halt, which is great, but every time I would try to comment they made me out to be a bear. You know I am bullish but like to keep expectations tempered and I am always preaching patience. I was just done arguing with guys on the twits who were saying we would have an approved NDA by YE. So instead of arguing, I crawled into my hole and kept buying. But I am more bullish than ever. Man I hope your March calls come through! I have some myself. I do think we hear something positive by the end if the month. At a minimum, we should get top line results. Tutes are buying, insiders are buying, and so am I. Good luck buddy!
Took a break from the boards, but for those that remember me, I am still long, still bullish and still doing DD everyday. IMO opinion, things are aligning very well. Stay patient my friends! Good luck to everyone!
If it makes you feel any better, I was down over 50% pre r/s. And only down that little cause I kept averaging down. Held through the r/s and finally sold at $1.45. I know it's only a portion of what many longs have gone through, but the pain is real and I had a lot riding on this investment. That doesn't count what I lost with my expired calls during that timeframe. I think the end is near, so we will see. I plan to pick up a few more call options. March calls are cheap around a nickel but scary close. I really do hope all the long's end up getting rewarded in the end. Personally, I would be happy making enough to break even from my past losses. I feel like something is brewing, I just hope it's not another crappy deal with Soon. Good luck to ya! One final note, and I never talk about other stocks, but I have been riding CRMD for 2 years. My avg is .34 and PPS is now up to 1.7 and I think upside is huge. Not a recommendation to buy, but you might want to add to your watchlist and check it out.
Thanks for the reply. I purposely posted to this board because of you two who seem like honest posters. I stay off all other boards.....just too much BS.
I Dabbled in some cheap call options and we will see what happens. With a MC this low and science that I think is valuable, this seems like it makes sense. I just remember the aldox days when we were all excited about the lung cancer trial results that we never got and the big partnership deal we were expecting. As it is now, Soon controls Aldox and it looks like it is going through multiple trials so there could be some upside but CYTR has really nothing to do with it anymore. Then you have the LADR tech, but it seems like early positive results have cause CYTR to shut down trials looking for a deal. So I have a company that created apparently awesome tech, but is now doing nothing. I am somewhat optimistic that paying off the debt, owning LADR tech, closing Germany Lab, creating a spin off company (tho wholly owned by CYTR), the recent lack of shorting, and the Sabby long (please be long) investment all point to a transaction that will once and for all be beneficial to all shareholders....cause if not, I have no idea what they are doing?
Good luck to all!
Hey guys - You probably don't remember me but I was one if those CYTR bulls and used to hang around these boards... mainly the twits. I sold my position at a big heft loss but glad I did, but still monitor. I am well aware of the past, but kinda fuzzy on the future and was wondering if you could offer some color. Thinking of a re-entry or a chance on some call options. To me, with the closing of the Germany Lab, seems like they pretty much just wrapped everything up and stuck a for sale sign in the front yard? If that's true I really feel bad for the legacy longs..... it's really hard to get a premium to the current PPS that a BP player can pay and convince to their respective shareholders that it was a good deal. This will make it hard to recoup all the losses of CYTR legacy longs, but I do think a significant premium to the current value is possible - hence my interest. Are you seeing what I am seeing, and if so, think they can get it done? I appreciate any feedback and I appreciate the way the posters on this board are cordial and respectful. Good luck to all!
Yeah those call options are looking better and better. Short term may get shorted pretty heavy based on what I am seeing, but your March calls seem solid at this point. Good luck brother! Still holding, still bullish! Just my opinions. Good luck all!
Basically, yes. Warrants holders exercised their right to purchase shares at a set amount. They chose to exercise those warrants which required them to pay CRMD the set price and CRMD keeps those proceeds. This transaction will not affect the authorized share amount but will increase the outstanding shares. If you are long. this transaction should have been anticipated. Good luck to all!
Hey guys - Haven't posted for a while but what a ride. Works been soaking up all my time so for those that PM'd me - I am still here, still holding and still ultra bullish. Also haven't been keeping up with the board but I see we picked up a bunch of longs. Just a couple quick points that have probably already been covered but. 1. We blew right through a bunch of warrants which is great. Assuming they have been exercised, cash concerns are basically over without changing the dilluted share count. I would expect to see an increase in the OS with the next report though. 2. I still expect some volatility but won't be swayed. The recent large increases attract shorts. They will lose in the long run but may have some short term success causing some big swings. 3. Someone is buying.....could it be a potential buyer picking up cheap shares at market price and building an ownership stake? That would be my bet. We are just getting started. The current move is what we were all expecting when we were buying this up a year ago. 4. I got so much more to say, but gotta go. Good luck everyone. All just my opinions.
So do I buddy!
I believe that to be true in my opinion. Still here, still bullish....just not posting quite as much. Take care and good luck!
If you're a holder, they expired worthless. For shareholders, fully dilluted share count shrinks. For CRMD, they have more shares on the shelf. For PPS, does minimize some resistance as most warrants are either shorted against or are cashed in for a quick buck after rise above .75. Most of these were held by Elliot, insiders and legacy holders.
If you're a holder, they expired worthless. For shareholders, fully dilluted share count shrinks. For CRMD, they have more shares on the shelf. For PPS, does minimize some resistance as most warrants are either shorted against or are cashed in for a quick buck after rise above .75. Most of these were held by Elliot, insiders and legacy holders.
Nice.
About 4 million of those warrants with a .75 strike just expired on Sept 10.