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another chart
Top is in?
Leveraged long versus leveraged short ratio wider than previous (June 15) short-term top.
Flash trading & Dark pools under fire.
Goldman made over $100 million per day on 46 trading days in Q2...wonder what they'll make without flash and dark pools?
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/08/04/sec-plans-to-ban-flash-trading-will-dark-pools-be-next/
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-42-100mm-trading-days-q2-absolute-unprecedented-record-just-two-days-trading-losses
Switched this morning from SKF to FAZ...
1000 @ $28.35
time to hit the links.
That is exactly what I've been seeing as the "c" as wavers call it to finish the correction...
same magnitude....same timeframe...
(A) up... (B)consolidation...(C) correction finished
time for wave 5 down
<<<Designing a system using future data would potentially be more profitable. :) >>>
that might help a little!
As for a "price science"...
There is nothing more illusory. Price is relative and dependent upon sentiment....you must be cognitive of that sentiment in placing your trade.
Any attempt to derive a "scientific price" will result in failure.
Agreed...my trades are entered when markets are already at extremes...
If you are going to get shaken out on a 10% move against your position...you WILL lose.
Even if the market goes against me, I know that almost always I can get out on the next counter move if I am not correct.
I also don't place a trade that will significantly damage my capital...even if wrong.
Stops, schmops...
ALL of the algorithms are designed to take out your short-term TA stops and take your capital...
patience and intermediate-term trading is the only way to win.
Regardless of short-term overthrow, you will consistently win by not selling into manufactured weakness, or buying into manufactured strength.
patience...
I don't mind being "wrong" for a coupla months.
I usually end up being right in the end.
Bradley vs. Goldman
Mtc...I see a candle you might like
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84376620581
I agree...the slightly lower lows may be a result of the slippage due to decay...the financial index is more overbought than previous high, but failed to make a new price high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78838735923
thx Joseph...
Cramer is a clown.
Deva...Thanks for the analysis...great post.
It must include HF...I believe it is 60% of all trades...so basically, it's a Goldman Sachs induced rally.
No volume...that's what I've been saying....seems a manufactured rally...volume equals validity.
Don't quite get your rationale...MACD topped and crossed, negative divergence in new highs in July...
Where's your SKF chart?
here are some bear markets
http://dshort.com/articles/2009/mega-bear-quartet.html
bear-market rallies are erased as quickly as they appear. Regardless of magnitude.
There was ZERO basing of price in the most cataclysmic destruction of the financial system since, or perhaps including, the Great Depression.
What is this Bizarro world?...Bliss is a raging bull...Ted converted to bear?
thx chris
Thanks Bliss
Thanks Bliss
Bliss...how do you take a screen-shot and post into a message?...I've seen you do it.
Thanks
GS volume high was on July 14
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31720581021
SKF lower low on ridiculously low volume
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93901829819
DEVA
Where's ur chart? :)
If GS follows Bradley...would portend a test of the 200 DMA at 107 by September....that would be nice.
Check out GS chart in relation to 2009 Bradley.
http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/BradleyTurnDates2009.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93901829819
Well said...excellent poem.
Banks rallying here because they had a window between March and now, where subprime resets slowed considerably and Alt-A and Option ARM's were not ramping up. That gave the false impression that things were "improving". That window has closed. These loans are resetting at an increasing rate from now through 2012.
With Option-ARM's, I believe 80% of all borrowers chose the interest-only, negative amortization payment, which means their loan balance increased as home value plunged...
You can bet that they will be walking away from the loan when the reset comes, leaving the banks holding the bag.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/option-arms-for-dummies-why-45-percent-mortgages-rates-will-do-absolutely-nothing-for-these-toxic-assets/
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2009/05/reset-chart-for-blog-april.jpg
Look forward to seeing it.
Financials now at valuations close to 2007, look at left side of JPM chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01340757273
2007 valuations were based on:
1) smoothly operating securitization market
2) wildly expanding credit
3) housing bubble equity extractions
4) highly leveraged capital ratios
5) derivative market that gave them false confidence that their position was "insured", even in wildly reckless risk-taking environment.
Today's environment:
Big Wave of ALT-A and Option ARM resets coming, Commercial loans coming due (at huge losses that banks will have to recognize), contracting consumer credit, contracting loan demand, no securitization market, regulation-happy legislation to punish the bad behavior.
Sorry, but the "steep yield curve" argument for bank profits doesn't override these structural changes.
That's why I just COULDN'T pull the trigger on the triple bottom break of SKF today...too predictable.
Anyone get the license plate of whatever ran over me today....I think I saw a coupla letters...I think I saw "goldm sac" or somethin' like that.
UPS...no sign of improvement deliveries down 5% in Q2
The economic environment continues to be difficult. Declines in both our domestic and international businesses appear to be stabilizing but volumes will remain significantly below last year’s levels,” said Kurt Kuehn, UPS’s chief financial officer.
“Although declines in economic indicators are less dramatic than earlier in the year, questions remain as to when business activity will begin to strengthen,” he continued. “The business environment in the third quarter should be similar to the second quarter. As a result, we are providing the same guidance as we did for the second quarter – earnings per share within a range of $0.45 to 0.55.
Along with rails: down 20% from 2008
http://railfax.transmatch.com/
Where's the recovery?
I have declared today "DUMP THE FINANCIALS DAY"
go SKF!
Whereya been? Pickin' blueberries?
It would be perfect...shake all the weak shorts...pile all the latecomers to the rally in....drop like a rock.....so the weak bears are out...and they steal the most $$$