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NEOM WEEKLY CHART UPDATE:
A couple of interesting things:
1) We have a weak breakout above the downtrend resistance line on this weekly chart that is not confirmed by volume. I personally would like to see volume accompany this advance before I would add to any existing positions. Adding to positions here is not crazy, however, but headfakes happen all the time and volume is a big missing piece of this puzzle.
2) As mentioned late last week, we have a MACD cross to the upside on this weekly chart that hints at a possible medium term trend change to the upside.
3) The daily chart (not shown here) had Friday end with a gap-up black candle, which means while the day did close positive, the close was lower than the gap up open. That means that momentum was lost during the day but this is not reflected in the weekly chart.
The coming week should have NEOM show it's hand with either a strong move to the upside on high volume (confirming the breakout) or a retest of the breakout point, OR a fall back to strong support at .29 cents.
I will let the chart tell me which is correct and not make any assumptions.
Have a great week!
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9...
OT: lesnshawn....you are right....
Mastering your emotions is one of the most difficult and financially rewarding challenges the stock market can offer.
All the best,
Chartist1
OT: Passage from a great book....
Recently, I highly recommended reading "Reminiscences of A Stock Operator", the fictional account of Jesse Livermore that was written after interviewing the famous trader over a period of several weeks. Another name was used for the character, but it was Livermore. First written in 1923 (and still widely available) it is considered THE most highly regarded financial book ever written.
In re-reading the book I came across a passage that points out how our natural emotions work directly against us in the stock market. In this passage Livermore says -- Our natural reaction is to feel "hope" when your stock declines to levels of unexpected losses, and "fear" when profits build from rising prices.
His point is we very often sell a winner to soon because we "fear" that our profits will be lost if we don't act quickly to sell, but we sell losers way to late by "hoping" a mounting loss will turn around.
He goes on to say you must reverse what is natural by fearing, and therefore not accepting mounting losses, and staying in a winning position longer by hoping for a bigger gains. He finished by saying that his ability to master this difficult challenge greatly enhanced his fortune over time.
A rather simple premise, but very eloquent in application.
Chartist1
NEOM WEEKLY CHART UPDATED:
Just thought I would post this weekly chart again as a reminder that NEOM is trying to make a break above downtrend resistance that would be SIGNIFICANT.
Also look at the very bottom right of the chart and notice the MACD cross to the upside (significant on this weekly chart and first upside cross since the top at .74 cents).
The Daily chart (not posted) is still forming an interesting short-term pattern of higher highs and higher lows although it's still a bit short on data points.
In summary, I am very encouraged by the recent chart developments (and today's Patent news) and I would not be surprised if a medium term trend change to the upside is in progress. Follow through tomorrow would close the week strong and more importantly put price above weekly downtrend resistance. The final element in what "could" be a sturdy rise in price is our missing friend.....volume.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9...
OT: Thank you YJ. Have a great week!
NEOM - NEW DAILY CHART (WIDE VIEW):
Attached is a very simple daily chart that focuses on a bullish pattern that "could" be in the early stages of development. Remember - don't see what you want to see...see what is there. This pattern could portend a bullish trend change but we have a ways to go for confirmation.
Finally, in the BIGGER PICTURE - NEOM is still bullish on the weekly and monthly charts....or I would not be here.
Enjoy.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!uc20!lh14,3][j...
Focused & board, RE: TS latest tout --
I really think it is important to look at TS's primary motivations to see why he (or for that matter) we would be doing what he is doing now.
Like it or not, TS's primary objective is to be a salesman for his newsletter to maintain is subscription base AND secure NEW subscribers. It's that simple....but consider the following....
Touting the same MC stocks that have already been leaked to non-subscribers would not be in HIS best interest as we start the New Year. He is likely capitalizing on using "The New Year" to tout new stocks that will most likely draw new subscribers who just "have to know" what is the NEW juicy stock to own. He is doing what he should do to earn HIM money.
Now, this does NOT mean that he is down on NEOM (and frankly, I could care less), but if you stand in his shoes....TS NEEDS to come up with new "hot plays" to temp subscription renewals and first time buyers.
His second motivation is to be right just enough to keep his subscription base solid and enough of a reputation to command his rather lofty price-to-play. He is also counting on word of mouth to get new subscribers. Remember, all he needs is one big winner and many current subscribers will recommend him to newbees.
I am sure that after the 1st two points he would like to make his subscribers big money, but that most assuredly comes after the 1st two motivations.
My point is, you always need to look at the market from the "touters or tipsters" perspective and then have enough guts and skill to INDEPENDENTLY decide what is best for you. That involves the one big area I always preach: HARNESSING YOUR EMOTIONS.
Some here might think I am being cynical, but if you stand in TS's shoes the motivations I propose above fall freely into place...and there is nothing wrong with that either! He should be doing what he is.....BUT it is up to us to understand is PRIMARY motivations and act accordingly.
Final note: accumulating sensational wealth in the Stock Market always requires understanding what is really happening as opposed to what you are being told. The challenge (and it's a big one) is it requires independent reasoning and decision making.... and that is a lonely and courageous task.
Chartist1
OT: Wolfin, thank you again....
Anytime I see a CNBC author I wince just a bit.
In all seriousness, thank you kindly for sharing.
Chartist1
Wolfin......
You are being kind. I know you were not the originator, but you are a messenger in the first order.
If you have not read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" I highly recommend it.
Again, you handed off a golden batton...
All the best to you.
Post #53770 IS THE BEST I HAVE EVER SEEN...
on this board.
It is priceless information and I fight to follow it on a daily basis. wolfin's post cannot be underestimated....and I am not one for going overboard.
Chartist1
Wolfin....EXCELLENT POST!
Everyone should read this over and over and over. It will save you thousand and thousands of $$$$ over time. I can't stress this enought.
Finally, I strongly recommend reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" first published in 1923 and covers the observations of the great Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
If you are serious about investing than Wolfin has just done you a great service.
Thank you!
Chartist1
Why I post the Weekly chart:
In reviewing some posts today I can see that today's drop has created some jitters (only natural if you follow NEOM on an hourly basis).
If you have the skills, however, to look at the bigger weekly picture on a chart, you will see that these daily/hourly/minute-by-minute gyrations smooth out into a more readable pattern that still looks very healthy AND is generaly a better indicator of NEOM's health. The problem with hanging on every hour is it can eventually spook you out of your position as you see price fall and the mood of the board fall with it.
I'm not saying to change what you find so enjoyable, but under those circumstances it is best to harness your emotions with the support of a good cup of coffee.
Chartist1
pvc.....that's funny, however:
You hit my point on the head. If you leave zero posibility that a stock issue can fall and not recover, and you buy accordingly, you are asking for trouble.
I am well aware that I am not filling the punch bowl with these comments.....but they have stood the test of time....and yes, I too have learned my lessons.
Just trying to shorten the learning curve in an area where I can help.
Chartist1
Doc...
"The lower the price the better"?
I am obviously a NEOM fan (but a disciplined one). Your buying on the "dips" theory still has a hold of you I see. Question: why would you buy more and more of a sliding stock when you have no proof, except faith, that it will eventually go higher? Buying breakouts above support limits maximum loss to almost zero, still offer huge gains and requires zero faith. Do you really want to accelerate your testing of "The Falling Knife" theory?
I'm not trying to be a downer....but why would you choose this style? It "can" pay off....but so can Vegas.
Way OT: Kobe with 70pts & 4:56 to play!!
OT: Alan, have a great week. eom.
ot: SOG Steelers (grrrrr....)
As a life-long Cowboy fan I am still trying to selectively forget the Bradshaw era. I have two rescue dogs as well, but my wolfie is a pure-bread from a breeder.
Chartist1
ot: SOG - My 4-month old wolfhound is now 55 lbs. and I have two other "children" as I have stated before.
All the best to you...
Chartist1
Point of Last Post:
If you WERE to follow the trading phylosophy of my last post you would notice that you would have to trade the OPPOSITE of your emotions (buy fear and sell greed/complacency). That is why I say it is CRITICAL to harness your emotions and always work on that.
Chartist1
SOG, that would be true....but:
(and I know you are joking) but the entire point is we have ZERO fear right now and that is a very reliable contrarian indicator as measured by the VIX and VXN.
The way to profit from this situation would be to short a sustained rise from zero fear while buying into "fire-and-brimstone" panics......and we sure don't have fire and brimstone now....we have fat-happy-complacent markets.
Chartist1
NOTE: Prior Posts NOT predicting NEOM fall.
eom.
Forgot one more warning sign:
3) On Friday the Dow crashed through medium term support and both the Comp and SPX broke below short term support. I hope the link below works....it illustrates the breakdown below support on these indexes.
Chartist1
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE0089572%2DAEC4%2D44CE%2D8963%2D82FEE70726DB%7D&am...
Chart revision to last post:
The Monthly Vix chart on my last post showed as the Daily. I am hoping that this post will correctly show the Monthly version of this index.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[w,a]maclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9...
MARKETS WAVERING?: Friday was a Hit to Jaw -
While I do not think this will adversely effect NEOM, a warning shot clearly went across the bow of the market indices on Friday. With the steep decline on Friday, January gains have been wiped out. None of the major market sectors were spared and the hardest hit area was one I am now going to consider shorting - Consumer driven technology. Apple, Marvel & Broadcom are just some of the better known names and Google and yahoo got belted too. Many thought Apple would save the market from Yahoo's disappointment but all of Apples growth projections have already been built into the stock price (the market always looks about 9 months ahead). Of concern for Google is a request to see how much of their traffic is driven by Porn surfing. Google, thus far, has not handed over that data but they are not comfortable about it.
Below are two specific things that are of concern for me, moving forward:
1) The Yield Curve has inverted and this has historically been a fairly reliable harbinger of a possible future recession. The inversion is a rare occurrence and means that longer term Treasury notes pay lower yields than those with shorter maturities.
2) The VIX (Monthly & Daily VIX chart attached below). This one is really worth watching. The "VIX" is the market Volatility Index and measures market volatility. The attached chart of the VIX shows that we are at a record level of complacency and that is worth noting. The VIX is a contrarian indicator: Spike high readings show panic and come with market bottoms and very low readings accompany extreme complacency and very often market tops. This VIX shot up from a complex rounded bottom on Friday as volatility started heating up
VIX MONTHLY CHART:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[w,a]maclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9...
The Daily chart below shows the complex rounded bottom and Friday's strong move upward from all-time tying low levels.
VIX DAILY CHART:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9...
I don't say these things to try to shake-up the board (although I think the rose glasses are on FAR to often) in-fact new leaders often creep up in a stealth advance during market downturns while old faithfuls like INTC take their beating. But I did want to call your attention to a very possible change in wind direction that is subtle at this point but (if you know how to short) can still be profitable moving forward.
Like everyting, time will tell.
Have a great week,
Chartist1
NEOM WEEKLY CHART (SHORTER TIME FRAME)
This is a zoomed-in view on the medium term while the last weekly chart covered a much longer time frame.
Important note: Notice the MACD Cross at the bottom of this chart. This is significant and it's the 1st upside cross since the fall from .74 cents.
I believe this view is easy to read and understand. something has got to give here soon as price gets squeezed down to a very narrow range. Notice the very clear support and resistance lines. As mentioned yesterday and today, we are trying to break through key resistance that would create another buying opportunity. This is not confirmed at this time.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9...
Please delete Post #53188
Chart problem.
Thank you.
NEOM WEEKLY CHART (YESTERDAY'S UPDATED):
Still bouncing over Line-In-The-Sand support and now over the 50week moving average.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!uc20!lh14,3][J...
NEOM UPDATED DAILY CHART & comments:
Today we fell back to the "new" support line that was previous resistance since the May 2005 high of .74 cents. This is why you always wait for follow-through AND the end of the day before considering adding to a position. *I recommend never buying in the beginning or middle of the day*
Someone asked me yesterday if he should buy 100,000 shares based on NEOM's position on the charts. My answer is, I never make trade recommendations. I will say this however,... IF (and it's a big if) you are disciplined enough to SELL the newly purchased shares if price falls back below the prior resistance line than you have a very low risk trade that has a very low maximum loss and high upside. The PROBLEM is that most traders don't have the discipline to stick to those rules. If price does break below the new support line, It usually turns into "I'll wait one more day to see what happens"...and that is followed the next day by...."I can't get out now and I know this has to bounce".....and it snowballs from there. Short answer: Great risk reward trade IF you stick to very strict rules. Trading right at the break above resistance is ALWAYS a great risk reward trade if you follow the above rules.
To Success, yes I did get your reply and thank you. I have been using my same charts for more than 7 years and I believe in consistency and using something that has worked very well for me and is used by all the pros on Stockcharts.com. What I will never do is fiddle with a chart until it says what I want it to........bad news and a diservice to anyone following those charts.
Finally, Maintaining strict discipline and reining in emotions are two areas, that when mastered, will put you at the front of the investment line.
Have a great weekend, all.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!lh14,3][J...
Doc......
I appreciate your warm welcome. I would hope the focus would be on the information in today's chart and that (as I discussed with you before) that this is a very low risk time to add to positions and the proper place to do it...."if" we follow through tomorrow. Friendships are great, but why are we all REALLY here... $$$$.
I hope you are doing well.
Chartist1
OT: Thanks Doc...eom
ALERT*: NEOM DAILY CHART (link)
Today was potentially an important day on the charts. We closed just above the downtrend line that slopes down from the May 2005 high of .74 cents.
We need confirmation tomorrow and ideally with high volume to drive us ahead. This could be a headfake (just as we went slightly below our support floor -- also in chart), BUT WE ARE RIGHT AT A POINT THAT IS WORTH WATCHING VERY CLOSELY. A CLEAR BREAK ABOVE ON A CLOSING BASIS WOULD BE A CLASIC PLACE TO ADD TO LONG POSITIONS.
Why?
1) Because a break above this downtrend line (after 8 1/2 months of downward pressure) would be a key indicator of a change in trend.
2) A break above resistance makes that resistance act as NEW Support. If we fell back down through this support you could sell your added shares for only a very small loss. They key is to add shares at the breakout point so "if" your trade goes bad you can quickly recognize it and dramatically minimize your loss. Like I said before EVERYONE makes loosing trades...but the Pros keep loses to a bare minimum. That point is very, very important to remember.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!lh14,3][j...
Note on Daily Chart.."when do I add"
Some have wondered "when do I add to my position". The answer can be seen in the annotated daily chart in my last post. "IF" we get a break above the blue resistance line on STRONG volume...THAT would be an additional buying opportunity.
Like I have said before: add to positions ONLY when resistance is broken to the upside....NEVER when price is in a tailspin (just because it's cheaper) because it could be a falling knife. Buy for a reason and know why you are buying and where the failure point is....in this case the failure point would be the blue line if price fell back down through this line which would now serve as new Support.
Chartist1
NEOM - NEW DAILY CHART (LINK)
This chart is also important because we are running up against key downtrend resistance from the high at .74 cents. (see attached chart - blue downtrend line)
I also show key support (red line) and the two are beginning to converge -- Something has got to give here fairly soon.
Slow Stochastists are now heading back down, but on the daily chart this is a rather short term indicator. I am more concerned that we are going to need strong volume to get over the blue resistance line and we are going to need it soon.
Chartist1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!lh14,3][J...
NEOM - NEW WEEKLY CHART (see link)
Hello, all. I am updating the weekly chart because I want to remind you of something meaningful that is coming into play right now on this chart.
1) We have bounced off the "line-in-the-sand" support that I identified several months ago on my first weekly chart (see attached chart). Notice what happened to price the last time we bounced off this critical support line (see blue circles on attached chart). I believe this to be VERY meaningful. Points 2-4 are just addional signs of medium term health.
2) The Slow Stochastics are rising fast and that is always more meaningful on a Weekly chart...bullish sign.
3) We also still have a very healthy cross of the 50week moving average well above the slower moving 200wk moving average (important and healthy sign that the medium term trend is outperforming the long-term trend).
4) Volume is still much stronger on the upside than on the downside. Caveat: We have not yet seen the volume I would like from this most recent bounce off the blue uptrend line.
Comment:
These signals taken together and fully understood can keep you from panic selling when in reality the longer term charts are still showing good health and action. I am sorry to say I saw that someone here sold much of his or her shares just before the most recent rise.... but having a longer-term perspective and some chart analysis can help you to keep a better perspective on what is REALLY happening.
In closing, I would pay very close attention to price action at the blue "line-in-the-sand" support line.
Go Trojans?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=neom,uu[w,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!uc20!lh14,3][J...
saskwatch......nice to see
....Another voice of reason.
Optimism is wonderful.....blindness is...well....
And there is NOTHING negative about that.
Chartist1
walleye...."if" you have been holding....
for three years, you conveniently picked the bottom between 1 and 2 cents. "if" you actually bought ALL YOUR SHARES 3years ago (on the button) you should be rolling in laughter. Nobody sells at the top, accept Goldman Sacks.... they create the top.
Are you saying you are upset with buying at .01 to .02 cents and having the option of selling at .28 cents? In that scenario you would be doing FAR better on a percentage basis than if you bought Google at 100 and sold at the high.
Am I missing something?
Chartist1
OT: SOG...I have 3-dogs.
My most recent addition is an Irish Wolfhound puppy. In other words....I will soon have a pony in my house.
My dogs ARE my children.
Chartist1
WHY I AM STILL LONG:
Final post of the day (to the likely delight of the Mods)
1) 50-week MA is still strongly over the 200-week MA and the 50 has not yet turned down.
2) Chakien Money flow on the Monthly chart is still positive (remember positive turn on the Monthly chart was the 1st in 5- years).
3) NEOM is still making higher highs and higher lows on the weekly/monthly charts (less noise to see the true pattern)
4) Upside volume is still strongly outpacing downside volume.
Those are some of the key foundational reasons that I am still in long. No panic, no hour-by-hour wondering if I am crazy.... I am simply following a disciplined plan. If these factors start to break down I will re-evaluate that plan and NEVER consider "hope" as part of that plan;)
Have a safe and Happy New Year!
Chartist1
AN EXERCISE FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:
I believe that if every day you try to replace a little bit of hope with a little bit of knowledge you are firmly on the right path to improving your chances for success.
Many here (understandably so) have cursed themselves for not selling at least part of their shares at, or around .74 cents. Hindsight is always easy, but I think the following can still be of help.
Consider going back and re-reading the posts (including yours..if there were any) from April through May of this year. During this time NEOM went from .16 cents to .74 cents.
Replaying your emotions (as well as the boards) during this euphoric climb in price can help you to re-think how you might handle the same situation a second time..maybe no change at all....maybe so.
Would you:
a) Hold all positions faithfully as many have done
b) Sell 25% of your position to cash in on what was likely a 200 to 400% rise.
c) Feather out of 50% of your position gradually as the climb became too high to sustain in the short term.
d) Sell all of your position to bank 200 to 400% profits and look for a pullback to more sustainable levels....and be prepared to say if it goes higher "I am not going to chase, hey, I am up 200 to 400%...I'm happy!"
Note: On the day NEOM hit it's top of .74 cents it gapped up and closed negative. That was the ONLY DAY during this ballistic rise that NEOM opened higher and closed lower.... a key warning signal of a posible inability to sustain the skyward march.
I am not suggesting that a, b, c, or d should be followed, but I am suggesting that you can still LEARN from this time period...instead of regreting it.
If that's to much work than you might want to have a conversation with yourself.
Chartist1