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Out QQQQ 38.69 for .64, out CNQR 12.79 for .61
Out AIRN @ 4.94 for .15 eom
At the close, in QQQQ 38.05, in CNQR 12.18, in AIRN 4.79. Ok, now Softie can yell the "T" word...
SNWL - up .54 to 6.54 on decent earnings. This is another one of my recovery story bets - along with IWOV - that I've been patiently waiting on. Good luck with PKTR, I've ridden that roller coaster a few times. Might have to get on board again soon.
Hey JimQuinceH ! IWOV reports today, you still in?
Anybody think it's safe to go back into the FORD water? 30 to 17 in 23 trading sessions is scary. Short position is huge. Might be time to jump in....
<<< Double bottom on the SMH >>>
Or, bounce up through the upper Bollanger Band and 50dma at 34.75 (10 day hourly chart), bringing the RSI and oscillators back to neutral, setting up another leg down....?
Just seems like the market wants to tank.
Covered QQQQ short at 37.64 - Held that large position a long time... but now I'm out fractionally green (and breathing again).
<< And I will prey for your pump and dump plays >>
A bit of clever double entendre?
PREY (verb); profit from in an exploitatory manner.
PRAY (verb); address God, implore, call upon in supplication.
FORD - Yahoo data as of August 10th shows shorts at 38%.
Can you say squeeeeeeeze....?
<< I coulda sworn they were showing BIG problems ON LIVE TV as they happened. >>
Yes, thank you for the correction. I should have said that it was day 3 before the press and the public began to question the Mayor's and Governor's assurances that they had the situation under control.
The looting, the levee breach, the disorganized evacuation efforts, and the need for large scale rescue efforts were all initially minimized by local officials. Listening to the Mayor and the Governor, I got the impression that, yes, the footage on TV is regrettable, but theses are isolated problems that will be handled quickly.
In fact, the true magnitude of the crisis was immediately evident to anyone watching it unfold on TV. The extra couple of days it took for the Governor and the Mayor to acknowledge such created a critical and costly delay in the initiation of appropriate rescue and relief efforts.
I remember getting a sick feeling in my stomach when I heard levee engineers calmly reassure everyone that the breach would be repaired in a matter of hours. I went through the Great Flood of 1993 in St. Louis, when river engineers discovered that water coming through a broken levee simply cannot be controlled. The New Orleans engineers made a huge mistake, and their miscalculation was deadly.
It's hard to say where the buck stops when it never got started correctly. As documents I have posted here earlier clearly indicate, the initiation and coordination of emergency measures is the responsibility of the Mayor of New Orleans and the Governor of Louisiana.
They decide whether and how to evacuate, and whether and how to request Federal assistance. They dropped the ball badly on this. Their initial news conferences assured everyone that New Orleans had dodged a bullet, the breach in the levee would be contained within hours, and that the situation was under control.
They failed to grasp the magnitude of the crisis, even declining early offers of assistance from other unaffected states and cities. Very quickly, it became apparent that the situation was far more dire than local officials thought. The evacuation effort was disorganized, looting was becoming rampant, the flood was becoming a worst case scenario.
It was day 3 before the press and the public began to recognize the horror unfolding. It then became apparent that the Mayor and the Governor were not handling the situation properly, and had not taken the needed steps to coordinate their actions with the feds.
By the time FEMA, the National Guard, and Bush came onto the scene, the emergency response effort had already spun out of control. Unfortunately, the feds prompty added to the problem by demonstrating their own level of disorganized incompetancy.
There's plenty of blame to go around. Yes, Bush and FEMA did not come to the rescue as they should. For their failure to recognize their need to step in and act fast and act big, they will be criticized, and deservedly so. But, if the Mayor and Governor had done their jobs, the entire emergency response effort would have unfolded quite differently.
For the next few months, the magnitude of the horror - and the death toll - is going to continue to increase. If we're going to react to each new daily revelation of tragedy with screaming accusations of who's to blame, then we're pathetic.
People are dying. The lives of those who survived have been shattered. An entire city, culture, economy, has been devastated. It will take decades to fully recover from this.
Please, be part of the solution and not part of the problem.
Please, stop the anger and do something positive .
Please, think and act on behalf of the unfortunate people in the Gulf region, not your political agenda....
The ugly truth
Why we couldn’t save the people of New Orleans
by Errol Louis
Bubbling up from the flood that destroyed New Orleans are images, beamed around the world, of America's original and continuing sin: the shabby, contemptuous treatment this country metes out, decade after decade, to poor people in general and the descendants of African slaves in particular. The world sees New Orleans burning and dying today, but the televised anarchy -the shooting and looting, needless deaths, helpless rage and maddening governmental incompetence - was centuries in the making.
To the casual viewer, the situation is an incomprehensible mess that raises questions about the intelligence, sanity and moral worth of those trapped in the city. Why didn't those people evacuate before the hurricane? Why don't they just walk out of town now? And why should anyone care about people who are stealing and fighting the police?
That hard, unsympathetic view is the traditional American response to the poverty, ignorance and rage that afflict many of us whose great-great-grandparents once made up the captive African slave labor pool. In far too many cities, including New Orleans, the marching orders on the front lines of American race relations are to control and contain the very poor in ghettos as cheaply as possible; ignore them completely if possible; and call in the troops if the brutes get out of line.
By almost every statistical measure, New Orleans is a bad place to be poor. Half the city's households make less than $28,000 a year, and 28% of the population lives in poverty.
In the late 1990s, the state's school systems ranked dead last in the nation in the number of computers per student (1 per 88), and Louisiana has the nation's second-highest percentage of adults who never finished high school. By the state's own measure, 47% of the public schools in New Orleans rank as "academically unacceptable."
And Louisiana is the only one of the 50 states where the state legislature doesn't allocate money to pay for the legal defense of indigent defendants. The Associated Press reported this year that it's not unusual for poor people charged with crimes to stay in jail for nine months before getting a lawyer appointed.
These government failures are not merely a matter of incompetence. Louisiana and New Orleans have a long, well-known reputation for corruption: as former congressman Billy Tauzin once put it, "half of Louisiana is under water and the other half is under indictment."
That's putting it mildly. Adjusted for population size, the state ranks third in the number of elected officials convicted of crimes (Mississippi is No. 1). Recent scandals include the conviction of 14 state judges and an FBI raid on the business and personal files of a Louisiana congressman.
In 1991, a notoriously corrupt Democrat named Edwin Edwards ran for governor against Republican David Duke, a former head of the Ku Klux Klan. Edwards, whose winning campaign included bumper stickers saying "Elect the Crook," is currently serving a 10-year prison sentence for taking bribes from casino owners. Duke recently completed his own prison term for tax fraud.
The rot included the New Orleans Police Department, which in the 1990s had the dubious distinction of being the nation's most corrupt police force and the least effective: the city had the highest murder rate in America. More than 50 officers were eventually convicted of crimes including murder, rape and robbery; two are currently on Death Row.
The decision to subject an entire population to poverty, ignorance, injustice and government corruption as a way of life has its ugly moments, as the world is now seeing. New Orleans officials issued an almost cynical evacuation order in a city where they know full well that thousands have no car, no money for airfare or an interstate bus, no credit cards for hotels, and therefore no way to leave town before the deadly storm and flood arrived.
The authorities provided no transportation out of the danger zone, apparently figuring the neglected thousands would somehow weather the storm in their uninsured, low-lying shacks and public housing projects. The poor were expected to remain invisible at the bottom of the pecking order and somehow weather the storm.
But the flood confounded the plan, and the world began to see a tide of human misery rising from the water - ragged, sick, desperate and disorderly. Some foraged for food, some took advantage of the chaos to commit crimes. All in all, they acted exactly the way you could predict people would act who have been locked up in a ghetto for generations.
The world also saw the breezy indifference with which government officials treated these tens of thousands of sick and dying citizens, even as the scope of the disaster became clear. President Bush initially shunned the Gulf Coast and headed to political fund-raisers in the West.
That left matters in the bumbling hands of the director of emergency management, Michael Brown, who ranks No. 1 on the list of officials who ought to be fired when the crisis has passed. Even as local officials were publicly reporting assaults, fires and bedlam at local hospitals, Brown took to the airwaves to declare that "things are going well" as mayhem engulfed the city. When asked about the rising death toll, Brown attributed it to "people who did not heed the advance warnings." Brown's smug ignorance of the conditions of the place he was tasked to save became the final door slammed on the trap that tens of thousands of the city's poorest found themselves.
The challenge for America is to remember the faces of the evacuees who will surely be ushered back into a black hole of public indifference as soon as the White House and local officials can manage it. While pledging ourselves to remember their mistreatment and fight for their cause, we should also be sure to cast a searching, skeptical eye on the money that Bush has pledged for rebuilding.
Ten billion dollars are about to pass into the sticky hands of politicians in the No. 1 and No. 3 most corrupt states in America. Worried about looting? You ain't seen nothing yet.
The problem is that when the levee broke, New Orleans officials assured everyone that they would have the breach contained in a matter of hours. This terrible miscalculation left officials and the public with a false sense of security -remember how everyone in New Orleans was breathing a sigh of relief over having dodged the bullet with Katrina?
When the reality of the flood became apparent, it was already too late to engineer a perfect emergency response, but not too late to initiate and coordinate a large scale response. I don't remember Rudy Guiliani standing around demanding that the feds do something while he ignored his own emergency response responsibilities.
Who should bare the blame for the poor disaster response? Where did the breakdown occur? I'm upset just like everyone else, but this document tells me who to hold responsible......
City of New Orleans Comprehensive
Emergency Management Plan
ANNEX I: HURRICANES
Part 1: TRAINING
II. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS
Under the direction of the Mayor, the Office of Emergency Preparedness will coordinate activities in accordance with the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan to assure the coordination of training programs for all planning, support, and response agencies. Departments, authorities, agencies, municipalities, and all private response organizations bear the responsibility of ensuring their personnel are sufficiently trained.
III. EVACUATION ORDER
A. Authority
As established by the City of New Orleans Charter, the government has jurisdiction and responsibility in disaster response. City government shall coordinate its efforts through the Office of Emergency Preparedness
The authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane is conferred to the Governor by Louisiana Statute. The Governor is granted the power to direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from a stricken or threatened area within the State, if he deems this action necessary for the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation, response or recovery. The same power to order an evacuation conferred upon the Governor is also delegated to each political subdivision of the State by Executive Order. This authority empowers the chief elected official of New Orleans, the Mayor of New Orleans, to order the evacuation of the parish residents threatened by an approaching hurricane.
B. Issuance of Evacuation Orders
The person responsible for recognition of hurricane related preparation needs and for the issuance of an evacuation order is the Mayor of the City of New Orleans. Concerning preparation needs and the issuance of an evacuation order, The Office of Emergency Preparedness should keep the Mayor advised.
V. TASKS
A. Mayor
* Initiate the evacuation.
* Retain overall control of all evacuation procedures via EOC operations.
* Authorize return to evacuated areas.
B. Office of Emergency Preparedness
* Activate EOC and notify all support agencies to this plan.
* Coordinate with State OEP on elements of evacuation.
* Assist in directing the transportation of evacuees to staging areas.
* Assist ESF-8, Health and Medical, in the evacuation of persons with special needs, nursing home, and hospital patients in accordance with established procedures.
* Coordinate the release of all public information through ESF-14, Public Information.
* Use EAS, television, cable and other public broadcast means as needed and in accordance with established procedure.
* Request additional law enforcement/traffic control (State Police, La. National Guard) from State OEP.
C. New Orleans Police Department
* Ensure orderly traffic flow.
* Assist in removing disabled vehicles from roadways as needed.
* Direct the management of transportation of seriously injured persons to hospitals as needed.
* Direct evacuees to proper shelters and/or staging areas once they have departed the threatened area.
* Release all public information through the ESF-14, Public Information.
D. Regional Transit Authority
* Supply transportation as needed in accordance with the current Standard Operating Procedures.
* Place special vehicles on alert to be utilized if needed.
* Position supervisors and dispatch evacuation buses.
* If warranted by scope of evacuation, implement additional service.
E. Louisiana National Guard
* Provide assistance as needed in accordance with current State guidelines.
If one is compelled to lay blame for this situation, there's plenty to go around. On every level - city, state, federal - there was a complete failure to anticipate the likelihood of a "worst case scenario" disaster, which is what we got. In the days following, there was a complete failure on every level - city, state, federal - to recognize the enormity of the crisis and the need for immediate large scale action.
It kills me to watch New Orleans turn into New Somalia, but, to seize on this situation as an opportunity to advance one's political ideology/agenda and abhorance/obsession with just one of the responsible parties (Bush) is insane.
Hey JimQuinceH - regarding your September 14the change of direction... you see any chance of a crash?
I'm short on balance, looking for a down move soon, but I've been "early" (translation = wrong) on my reads lately...
I still have IWOV. Some good publicity recently. Will continue to hold.
<<< I'd prefer a wipeout >>>
Me too. I'm short, and the 200dma would get me out green.
edit - QQQQ lod 38.27, a .50 jam would take us up to the 50 dma.
Sure looks like it's ready for a nice bounce. Might have to try some. (edit) - lots of trades at the bid, spread spends alot of time at 4 to 5 cents... wonder what's up....
Anybody watching FORD ? Now 22.68 down .77
HPQ revenue 20.759b
Non-GAAP operating profit was $1.2 billion, which excludes s $988 million of adjustments on an after-tax basis related primarily to a tax adjustment resulting from HP's decision in the third quarter to repatriate, in the third and fourth quarters, $14.5 billion in cash from foreign earnings.
GAAP operating profit was $913 million and GAAP EPS was
$0.03 per share, down from $0.19 in the prior-year period.
Merrill says HPQ outperformed DELL in laptops in July, but there is nothing else to suggest an upside surprise. Cost cutting plans will not affect this quarter, while revenue and margin pressures will hit HPQ harder than the competition.
Estimate is for .31 , with revenues at 20.5b.
I expect .29, with revenues missing badly.
If I'm wrong, I think the market will still give HPQ the "sell the news" treatment when they give the same cautious guidance as the rest of the tech sector. Look at how the market treated DELL, GTW, CSCO, EMC...
Of course, I'm short, so I may be a bit biased...
Was August 2-3 the top? SMH, QQQQ, IWM, SPY have all been down since then (DJI holding about even).
When so many high visibility bellweathers - GE, WMT, INTC, AAPL, EMC, CSCO, just to name a few - all say that expectations are too high for the next quarter, eventually the market has to start discounting that.
Interest rates and oil prices; no end in sight to the upward pressure. Absurd bullish advisor sentiment... I'm starting to wonder if this thing is gonna end ugly...
HPQ reports today. I'm short and looking for a miss and weak guidance, but I'll settle for any "sell the news" reaction. Also still short the QQQQ's.
July was mean to me, but August may make it all up....
CSCO today, DELL on Thursday. I think both will post good earnings/revenues and show continuing gains in market share.
I still think the market has a "sell the news" bias on good tech news. I'm leaning towards doubling my shorts on any run up into these reports.
It's 2:22 - if we're gonna get a miracle reversal on the QQQQ, it oughta come about now. I'd almost be surprised to not see one!
RYVNX - the rydex double short QQQQ fund - hit a new 52 week low yesterday. Anybody thinking about that play???
<<< all of you, please "chill out". >>>
Does this mean it's safe to come back?
Maturity is the ability to be civil towards those
with whom you disagree.
<<< still short QQQQ and plan to hold.... many will take profits as earning season ends >>>
I concur! I too am comfortable with my QQQQ short. I too see a round of selling coming as we close out earnings season. I'm also still short HPQ - a little early - but I'm convinced the high expectations are due for a serious reality check.
However, I do think the "Q2 earnings are in, now let's worry about Q3" bottom will be a good buying opportunity for an EOY rally.
I don't have much of an instinct for the exact timing of the turns, so I'll leave that to you and others that have that gene <g>. But, I am establishing some short positions and will continue as opportunities present themselves.
My timing disclaimer aside, I see the medium term charts as showing resets in the oscillators without a concurrent pullback in price levels, and that tells me that the top is not quite here yet.
edit - (talking about the QQQQ and a few of my favorite techs)
<<< a nasty nose dive is coming >>>
Longer term charts extremely overbought. Sentiment extremely bullish. Money flow says distribution. Earnings reports (except the goldilocks few) getting a "sell the news" response. Guidance is a chorus of comments about expectations being too high.... That nasty dump is getting very close....
<<< IWOV at HOD, something going on? >>>
Hi Jim, this was on Briefing.com yesterday. I know some software analysts think IWOV is a buyout waiting to happen.
Rumors have made IWOV surge before, but there was never anything like this press release to back it up.... I wonder how much SUNW might pay???
8:02AM IN PLAY - Interwoven announces that Sun will resell IWOV Enterprise Content Management Platform (IWOV) 7.26 :Co announced an expanded relationship under which SUNW will resell the Interwoven ECM platform for enterprise content and compliance customers. The two cos will engage in joint sales and marketing activities to provide the most complete solutions that seamlessly integrate Interwoven ECM software with Sun's Java enterprise software, server and storage products.
I'm a clown long bull on CSCO, but I'm seeing a lot of
"sell the news" reactions to anything but a goldilocks earnings report. I'm thinking a better entry point is coming...
Dude, you're preaching to the choir <g>! I've been ranting about NVLS being a pig for months... Remember this:?
-----------------------------------------------------------
Posted by: late bloomer
In reply to: cannabis
Date:5/31/2005 10:26:47 AM
NVLS....Watch out for when the lipstick wears off this pig!
-----------------------------------------------------------
On May 31, NVLS closed at 26.69. Today it's at 27.87
UFB!!
NVLS and KLAC gapped down on the open. Da Boyz gotta fill those gaps before they take 'em down big <g>.
This is the time of day when foreign investors (bagholders?) make the majority of their buys. Time will tell whether they're buying low or high....
IWOV News:
They warned for this quarter based on push outs of key deals - could be reflective of overall weak software sector, or maybe not. I'm still long, but watching closely.
I've always felt that IWOV was a great buy out candidate. Their main competitor - Documentum - got snapped up by EMC. IWOV has $3.42/sh cash, no debt, a forward PE of 24, price to sales is 1.8, price to book is 1.
This press release tells me that SUNW is sniffing around...
8:02AM IN PLAY - Interwoven announces that Sun will resell IWOV Enterprise Content Management Platform (IWOV) 7.26 :Co announced an expanded relationship under which SUNW will resell the Interwoven ECM platform for enterprise content and compliance customers. The two cos will engage in joint sales and marketing activities to provide the most complete solutions that seamlessly integrate Interwoven ECM software with Sun's Java enterprise software, server and storage products.
Looks like the market was expecting some blow-out numbers from the leaders of the recent bull move. They didn't get 'em. I'm glad I didn't buy any tech in the last few days, but I sure wish I had timed my QQQQ and HPQ shorts better. Still a bit underwater of both of those, but HPQ looks ready to pay me...
Well, at least I might have gotten this one right:
Posted by: late bloomer
Date:7/15/2005 10:38:50 AM
.... It sure looks like the market is set up to give stocks the sell-the-news treatment. Maybe the market turns when the bullet-proof 800 pound gorilla of this bull move - INTC - reports.
Would we all agree that the number one rule in investing is, "buy low, sell high"? The markets are technically overbought (with some indices at multi-year highs), bullish advisors at 54.5%, the vix is at historical lows, etc.. etc..,
so current prices are indeed high, but there are great hopes and expectations and reasoned arguments for even higher highs.
Earnings are coming in OK for some major players, but the number of misses and warnings among secondary names is noteworthy. For the bullish scenario to be correct, and for high prices to go higher, then we need to be hearing a broad-based preponderance of positive comments and guidance.
But we're not. GE is a proxy for the entire market, and they've said that expectations for Q3 are too high. AAPL is a tech darling. For Q3, they've said that expectations are too high. TOL, the leader in the housing market, has said that expectations are too high.
The data shows that most of the current buying is being done by foreign interests. Stateside players - discounting the effect of 50% program trading volume - are net neutral. Technicians more savvy than I are convinced that that the smart money is distributing.
I don't know if this market is going to just ramp up and run away, but I doubt it - but I've been wrong so far this month!
It sure looks like the market is set up to give stocks the sell-the-news treatment. Maybe the market turns when the bullet-proof 800 pound gorilla of this bull move - INTC - reports.
Then, how unexpected (that's what the market always does..) would it be for the stock, the sector, and the whole market to get the sell-the-news treatment...?
All IMHO.
Didn't Greenspan mention that there was evidence of "pricing power" in his recent testimony? Doesn't that mean passing costs on to the consumer? Doesn't that mean higher end prices? Doesn't that mean higher CPI? Were my economics professors all wrong?