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OPEC is later this month publishing its first outlook for 2024, and, according to the people who spoke to Reuters, it would feature a bullish view on demand. It would be lower than this year’s demand growth rate, but that has been extra-strong as the world exits two years of lockdowns.
Indeed, even the International Energy Agency said in its June Oil Market Report that “Global oil demand continues to defy the challenging macroeconomic climate and is set to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2023, outpacing last year’s 2.3 mb/d increase as well as earlier expectations.”
The reason Amin Nasser was optimistic was, once again, China’s recovery. In fact, China’s recovery in the fuel use department has been quite robust. Demand for oil hit a record earlier this year and is likely to remain strong throughout 2023. Ignoring this fact to focus on factory activity does not mean it would go away.
Costly failures at wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa last month sent shares of parent company tumbling 37%, and analysts are concerned about wider problems across the industry. Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch said “too much had been swept under the carpet” at Siemens Gamesa and that the quality issues were “more severe than [he] thought possible.” The problem involves critical components like bearings and blades.
The first half of 2023 has been tough for oil and gas companies, but some investors are turning bullish on energy stocks. Texas Energy Report notes that out of the S&P 500 index’s 11 sectors, analysts are the most optimistic about the energy industry, with the sector earning roughly 60% of buy ratings, according to FactSet. Energy stocks have fallen 7.8% this year, compared to a gain of 14.5% for the S&P 500.
In 2022, global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) set a record high, averaging 51.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 5% increase compared with 2021, according to data by CEDIGAZ. Liquefaction capacity additions, primarily in the United States, drove growth in global LNG trade. At the same time, increased LNG demand in Europe also contributed to trade growth as LNG continued to displace pipeline natural gas imports from Russia.
Happy 4th to all who served and protected our country.
and to all who love it...........
BOGOTA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Colombia is targeting a 15% increase in crude oil output by using "enhanced recovery" technologies to take advantage of higher energy prices, even as it pushes towards decarbonization, Minister for Mines and Energy Irene Velez said in an interview.
Bonilla specified that the country currently has 202 hydrocarbon exploration contracts in an area of about 17 million hectares in places where oil or gas has traditionally been found. He added that Colombia has proven reserves of seven years, "but with some contingencies that oil could go up to 10 years and gas up to 20 years."
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia's government is preparing to help energy companies revive at least 21 suspended oil and gas contracts with a $38 million initiative aimed at solving security and community relations problems, the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) told Reuters.
More Canadian car buyers are rejecting electric vehicles, with nearly two-thirds saying they're unlikely to consider one for their next purchase. Meanwhile, a growing number of Americans say their next ride may be battery-powered.
Those are among the findings of J.D. Power Canada's second Electric Vehicle Consideration study, released on Thursday. The market research firm collected nearly 5,000 responses from consumers in April and May.
According to J.D. Power, 66 per cent of automobile shoppers in Canada say they're either "very unlikely" or "somewhat unlikely" to consider an electric vehicle for their next purchase. That's up from 53 per cent last year.
We are experiencing strong customer reluctance in the electric vehicle sector,” plant boss Manfred Wulff said.
That is remarkably plain language from the largest car manufacturer on the planet, and a company that recently announced plans to invest €120bn (£103bn) over the next five years in “electrification and digitalisation”.
It comes months after Ford poured cold water on the shift to electric with thousands of job losses in Europe. Electric vehicle production is unable to support anything like the same number of jobs that petrol and diesel models are able to sustain, it said. Boss Jim Farley estimates that 40pc fewer staff will be needed to develop battery versions.
A generation of pure electric vehicle makers has hardly fared any better. On Tuesday, Lordstown Motors, the US electric truck specialist that Donald Trump once heralded as the saviour of a depressed Ohio town, filed for bankruptcy protection.
Even Elon Musk has been forced to repeatedly cut the price of Teslas in a desperate effort to prop up demand and protect market share.
The estimated rise in oil demand stands to put upward pressure on crude prices that have steadily dropped from their March 2022 highs of $120 a barrel when Russia's war with Ukraine broke out.
On Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.14% to $74.11 a barrel as of 5 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate traded down 0.03% to $69.14 a barrel.
Global appetite for crude oil is likely to surge 23% to 110 million barrels a day by 2045, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
During an Energy Asia conference on Monday, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais explained the oil cartel's world forecast was rooted in the fact that "oil is irreplaceable for the foreseeable future," according to CNBC.
Global oil demand is set to rise to 110 million barrels a day by 2045, according to OPEC.
That's because oil is "irreplaceable" and widespread migration is expected over the next seven years.
Oil is here to stay with global demand set to jump 23% to 110 million barrels a day by 2045, OPEC says
The Wall Street Journal
Oil Prices Expected to Jump on Conflict in Russia
Hydrogen-to-power strategies are key to decarbonisation pathways in Europe and Asia, making these key potential export markets for hydrogen produced in Colombia. We estimate the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) in Colombia could be similar to Chile’s. Potential export volumes from Colombia would be globally competitive, especially into Europe.
Despite a widespread desire among nations to pivot to clean energy, most oil companies plan to continue investing heavily in growing their fossil fuel output. For example, late last year, ExxonMobil announced its capital spending plans through 2027. It expects annual capital investments to be between $20 billion and $25 billion. However, it only expects to invest $17 billion in total through 2027 on lower-emission projects. Meanwhile, it will only direct 40% of that spending to build its lower-carbon businesses, including expanding its biofuel production and carbon capture and storage projects. The rest will go toward lowering its corporate emissions.
The IEA sees oil demand rising by 6% through 2028, when it will reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). Fueling that growth will be rising demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
The main objective of Colombia’s Hydrogen Road Map is to facilitate the development and implementation of more green hydrogen countrywide. This process will enable the country to reduce carbon emissions and meet its ambitious climate commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement
Colombia's position as the country with the sixth-greatest quantity of renewable water resources puts it in an ideal position to produce green hydrogen - which is made by splitting water - Mesa said, although it will also be able to produce blue hydrogen, when natural gas is split into its component parts.
Colombia’s National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) is expected to invest over $135 million in gaining a better understanding of the country’s renewable energy potential. This funding is part of the government’s four-year development plan, currently being debated in Congress
U.S. supplies are expected to tighten as energy companies close more oil rigs. But overall fuel demand in the country has also remained muted despite the beginning of the travel-heavy summer season.
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday after two straight sessions in red, taking some support from strong U.S. economic data and hopes of improving demand in Asia, although caution still persisted ahead of more cues on U.S. monetary policy.
Meanwhile, supplies are constrained. OPEC is holding back additional supply while several countries have encountered production issues this year. In addition, McDonald noted that U.S. oil output growth remains limited. Several factors are impacting the industry, including higher labor and material costs, which are squeezing profit margins. That's leaving oil companies with less cash flow to invest in new production
On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its May oil market report that global oil consumption is on track to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) this year to an average of 102 million BPD. That's 200,000 BPD higher than its forecast the previous month, fueled by a stronger-than-expected demand recovery in China, which set an all-time high of 16 million BPD in March.
Meanwhile, supplies are constrained. OPEC is holding back additional supply while several countries have encountered production issues this year. In addition, McDonald noted that U.S. oil output growth remains limited. Several factors are impacting the industry, including higher labor and material costs, which are squeezing profit margins. That's leaving oil companies with less cash flow to invest in new production. On top of that, investors have pressured producers to limit spending and return more free cash flow to shareholders.
Rising demand and limited supply growth suggest oil prices have nowhere to go but up.
Oil prices have been surprisingly weak this year. WTI, the primary U.S. oil price benchmark, recently fell below $70 a barrel. That's a more than 40% plunge from the over $120 a barrel price point WTI fetched this time last year. The sell-off comes despite significant global supply issues, additional production cuts from OPEC+, and rising demand.
Oil rose on Friday, cementing a gain for the week, as macroeconomic trends suggested stronger demand globally.
Oil Posts Weekly Gain as China, Fed Pause Lift Demand Outlook
happy fathers day to all those living and past
Oil prices continue rally after top crude exporter cuts output
Saudi Arabia said it will reduce production by 1 million barrels per day from July
Bloomberg) -- Oil rose amid dollar weakness while traders pointed to the highest refinery runs in the US since 2019 as a harbinger of strong summer demand to come.
Bloomberg
Oil Gains as US Refiners Ramp Up for Summer, Dollar Weakens
gator it seems to be the new wave across other countries too
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The latest reduction in output of 1mn barrels per day for July, and potentially beyond, will bring the kingdom’s production to about 9mn barrels a day. That is the lowest level — outside of the coronavirus pandemic and the immediate aftermath of the 2019 attack on Abqaiq — in more than a decade. The Saudis are trying to wrench global oil inventories lower to buoy prices, although previous supply reductions have not done the job — oil is down more than 20 per cent since the first cuts last year.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices rose over 2% on Friday after the U.S. Congress passed a debt ceiling deal that averted a government default in the world's biggest oil consumer and jobs data fueled hopes for a possible pause in Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A global shortfall in crude oil supply is set to deepen in the third quarter as the world's top exporter Saudi Arabia pledged extra output cuts from July in a move likely to push Brent towards $100 a barrel by the end of the year, analysts said.
Reuters
Brent may rise toward $100/bbl as Saudi output cut could worsen supply gap - analysts
The price of oil jumped Monday but could still have further to go. Both Brent crude, the international benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. standard, were up more than 2% after Saudi Arabia made a move to cut oil production. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause its interest-rate increases at its June 13-14 policy meeting as inflation has shown signs of cooling, although one more rate hike is possible in July as a result of the stronger-than-expected labor market.
The oil market is focusing on the June 4 meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, which will discuss whether to cut oil production further.