Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
What are the other 2? TIA
wade re PEIX:
Couldn't resist buying a bunch more today at 14.50. Now own more than I intended to. In for a penny, etc.
Marty is "guessing" that the China leg of the trip will be in April. I bet it is more than a guess, and I assume that the dance of this "deal" still has a ways to go. I continue to be skeptical. China has trucks that Niger needs. And AMMX has what? I still do not understand what AMMX brings to the table.
In anticipation of timely financials I bought more yesterday at $.025.
r59 re PEIX:
As we all know, SA has a following, some of it blind. There are many stocks in our microcap world that go down sharply for no apparent reason. Of course, sometimes someone just wants out. But I have noticed a correlation between SA negative pieces and these sharp selloffs. I also have the impression that the "SA effect" is often very short-lived, and that these articles can create a buying opportunity. If I didn't already own a bunch of PEIX, I would be a buyer today.
Again, I am not suggesting that the article has merit. Frankly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
Again, not saying the article is any good. But it may account for the selling today.
Not suggesting that the article is right. Just that it may explain selling. AMTX getting beaten up too.
PEIX:
May have something to do with this Seeking Alpha piece:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2105143-ethanol-economics-gone-wild-but-can-the-party-continue?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
Perhaps today's selling is related to this Seeking Alpha article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2105143-ethanol-economics-gone-wild-but-can-the-party-continue?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
I suspect that would be the response, if indeed the details are known at this point.
My point in all this is simply that I think it is a bit misleading to speak of a $270 million contract without a surer sense of its actual impact. The impression being created around this stock is that if this deal is inked, the Company will go from $5.8 million in revenue in 2013 to something close to $270 million in revenue in 2014. I hope this is true, but I am very skeptical.
So, is AMMX getting 20-30% (less fee) of $270 million? Or is $270 million (less fee) 20-30% of the total paid for the trucks. If that basic question can be answered, I can do the math. This has nothing to do with "margins." Just revenue.
Is AMMX getting $270 million (less fee) for the trucks? In other words, does it take title to the trucks first? If so, what does it pay for them?
Or, is AMMX getting $270 million (less fee) for selling trucks that belong to the China party? If so, what does the China party receive? And how much is the "handler's fee"? $269 million?
Is the total deal $270 million, or is AMMX receiving $270 million (less fee)? If AMMX is not bringing money or trucks, why is it getting $270 million (less fee)? If the China party has the trucks and is supplying the financing, what is it getting?
Not saying the deal is "complicated." But based upon your experience of doing business in Africa, perhaps you can fill in a few of these details. If you don't know the details, what would be "normal," since you characterize this deal as "normal"?
TIA for helping me to understand.
Thanks, Bob. I agree on fundamentals. But AMTX fundamentals are pretty good, and some have suggested -- speculated is probably more like it -- that AMTX might get bought by PEIX. So, I bought a few AMTX shares last week along with PEIX. Thought maybe I was too late to both parties, but so far so good.
Happy to get your input.
I am not sure what the AMMX role is supposed to be. Niger's problems are huge and well known:
http://www.wfp.org/countries/niger
The country needs EVERYTHING. Where to begin?? But I don't understand how AMMX can expect to get $270 million for brokering a deal or for consulting services. So, the deal may be for $270 million, but I have no real feel for what AMMX will get out of it, or even what the deal is. And I can't believe that AMMX is in a position to "flip" $270 million worth of trucks at a significant margin.
But then again, a 1% finder's or brokering fee on $270 million would be huge in the life of this company, and it does appear that during the past few years AMMX has invested time and energy to create and cement relationships in West Africa. So, who knows? Maybe AMMX brings something of real value to the table. I had not considered the possibility of ongoing consulting services after the trucks are delivered. What are these trucks going to be used for?
For now, I am invested here because I think the company is worth more than $.03 per share on the strength of: (i) the business that it has announced is in the door; and (ii) the likelihood that similar business at that level will continue and even grow. I believe that the company has expertise and a niche in an industry that was beaten up by the recession but is likely to do better over the next few years, and that the Company's value overall is greater than the market seems to be giving it.
My major concern is solvency. The fact that a CFO and an IR person is compensated in whole or in part with stock is not always a good sign. I am looking forward to the numbers this week, but it is not clear to me that the Company is out of the woods yet.
Above all, I am not looking into luxury properties in the South of France based upon any expectation of a $270 million Niger/China deal. Would love to be wrong!
Mik:
Not to be negative -- I really am quite long this stock -- but what does China need with AMMX? Once introductions are made and relationships established, why not cut out the middle man? Am I missing something obvious?
I understand completely that China is investing heavily in Africa. China's need/appetite for natural resources is pretty obvious.
Thanks.
From your lips to God's ears, as they say.
I agree that it looks about as good as something like this can look. I listened to the last conference call while it could still be accessed, and I was very impressed with the CEO -- his core competence and obvious integrity. I think we are in good hands.
I wish I had the same level of confidence in the honesty of anything in China and/or Niger.
I am as hopeful as the next person about the China/Niger deal. But I would not be long here if that was all that was going on. I think that the business is well on the road to recovery and in good shape, even if China/Niger deal dies or is delayed. Stock seems undervalued IMO regardless. The downside seems limited to me, and IMO that is why the "correction" was very light. Obviously stock will go bananas if the China/Niger deal is signed, and will be ever crazier if the Company is ever able to report revenues from that deal. But I am not placing a big bet on the faithful performance of promises or even contractual obligations by an entity in China or one in Niger.
Hoping that profit taking is about done. Friday's action in the stock was encouraging, don't you think?
Bob re AMTX:
Do you own it? TIA
Of course, the same is true on the way down too.
It is not a question of language interpretation. A contract with an entity in China is usually unenforceable in every practical sense. This does not mean that it will not be performed. But IF it is not, there is usually no effective remedy. I am sure that AMMX is aware of the risks and is taking every precaution to make sure that payment is received before committing meaningful funds. But if the China entity or the Niger entity decides not to proceed, a signed contract won't make much difference.
That said, I do expect the stock to do very well if a contract is announced.
Impressive volume today, compared with stock's recent history.
Agreed 100%. Even a signed contract is of questionable value in a deal involving China and Niger, though it would obviously provide a huge boost to the share price if announced.
My understanding is that there has already been "agreement" on price. I put the term "agreement" in quotes because with China, and I assume Niger, everything is always negotiable, even after a contract has been signed. Frankly, the big surprise would be for a deal with China and Niger to go off without "unanticipated" delays and problems. I will believe the deal when I see it, which is not to say that we are not getting a straight story from the Company.
My guess is that the current numbers are at least as good as earlier guidance indicated, and that news has gotten out. Certainly the fact that the Niger/China trip has been delayed is hardly an explanation for today's move.
CMT:
Reports earnings:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61418676
Thanks.
What is the Breakout board? TIA.
I didn't say that all the hype was succeeding; obviously, it is not. The stock is about a tenth of a penny or so higher than it was before the much-ballyhooed annual meeting.
But look, I don't care. I am out of the stock and glad to be. I was just observing that the blog style may not appeal to everyone.
Often a pump and dump indicator. Most companies are content to let market find true value based upon performance. I sold yesterday in reaction to a blog announcing a blog that didn't say anything new, except that stock is undervalued in the opinion of the blog. Too much hype and manipulation surrounding this one for my tastes. But good luck to all longs. Apparently some have been waiting for years.
Who is "looking"? Volume was 0 shares yesterday. Management's refusal to issue PRs is an obvious indication it does not care about shareholders, don't you think?
I suspect that some potential investors do not like to see the Company talking up the price of the stock on a blog.
Glad to see a board for this company. Thanks.
TGA:
Perhaps concerns over political instability:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/25/world/africa/egypt-politics/index.html?hpt=wo_c2
WRES:
Positive Seeking Alpha article on WRES and another sub-$5 energy stock, IO.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2022611-two-4-energy-plays-on-the-move?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
Thanks. I was trying to figure out what was at stake. Hoping that the stock price rises in advance of the meeting next week.
New to this stock. I see a lot of talk about a delayed audit. What is the history?
TIA.
SSKILLZ1 re CCG:
Resuming steady march upward today. I have made 5% in 10 days on a stock that is paying a 7% dividend. Thanks again for this recommendation.
hweb2 re WRES:
I notice that several reports regarding WRES appeared yesterday morning. I have not read any of them -- too cheap to buy them -- but they may have had positive things to say.
REITS:
I don't know. I own them in my retirement plan.
SSKILLZ1 probably knows.
CCG:
Just saw a couple of 200k share trades go buy at $8.99 per share.
re CCG:
Thanks for this recommendation. I took a look at it and bought some at $8.75. Bought with profits from ARCP, so I should be thanking you double.
Regarding REITS in general, I have been reading conflicting assessments of whether they are good to own in a rising interest rate environment. Any general thoughts?