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Please CORRECT ME IF YOU ARE ABLE!!?? Re: scandium!!
Walter I have spoken at length with the following people over the past 3 years, Peter Dickey, Teresa McGowan ( short lived PR person), directors, Jim Sims, and once a very privileged extensive call with Mark Smith on his personal cell phone ( still have it saved!! I'll bet he regrets it !! Lol?)
Please correct my understanding!!
Walter and anyone out there!!
Marks philosophy on Scandium pricing is this: Striking Deals based upon the Value Scandium brings to that particular customer. Essentially it's a " custom pricing model approach". Very interesting!!
Mark DOES NOT BELIEVE IN MARKET PRICING FOR SCANDIUM!!!
We must all understand this or we don't understand Mark and the delay!!
Example: auto industry can afford $2000-$2500 Scandium kg. Fuel cell industry about $6500kg. Airline industry about $4500kg, but wait there's a huge hitch!!! The airline industry can pay maybe $10,000 per kg!! Because of the MILLIONS IN MANUFACTURING SAVINGS FAR EXCEED THE FUEL COSTS SAVINGS!! Airline industry can save $10-15 million per plane in fuel with $2 million in scandium per plane, but save 25-30 million in manufacturing costs !!! So Mark is negotiating like this: " come on guys, you are going to save 40-50 million per plane with only $2 million of scandium!! Let's be reasonable and bump that up a bit!!
Help me help you !! "
Hope everyone understands what I've said !! Ponder it and please intelligent responses only !!
And in all sincerity may Jesus bless you and your families this Christmas!!
It is illegal to withhold material information!! Please call Jim Sims he will explain it to you!! I used to think they played games with releases!!
Then Jim patiently explained how it all works. Any company can manipulate the flow of obligated information. But if proven it's a lawsuit and potentially prison for management!!
Great news! Updated filings from Nov 10th show 2,762 tons of raw material mined daily! And this yields an EBITDA OF $389 million per annum.
Now remember with current infrastructure in place Niocorp can mine about 5,000 tons of raw material per day! Almost double!!
Now there would be some increased variable costs of course but ALL fixed infrastructure costs would not be increased. In other words probably 450 million or more additional money would go to EBITDA say a total EBITDA of $750-850 million per year!
This project is absolutely scalable with Zero further resource assessment!! I hope everyone is understanding this!!
Oh yeah at 2,762 tons per day the indicated resource allows for mine to last 220 years !!! That's correct!!
At 5,000 tons per day about 105 years!! And that's with no further assessment!! And we know for CERTAIN THERE IS MORE AND THE GRADES ARE RICHER AT DEPTH!!
Bottom line, this is an incredible opportunity!! Problem is underground mining takes patience and time!!
Remember the reason Niocorp chose to mine only 2,762 tons per day was to get capex hopefully under 1 billion or barely over which they achieved!!
They could mine 10,000 tons per day!!
But capex would scare people!! Once the mine is producing all bets are off !!! No one will be scared any more!! We just have to put up with other until 2022-2023!! Then it will be all hugs, high fives and cartwheels!!
Champagne, caviar and yachts for some !!!
I hope Walter chimes I with His accounting background!!
My opinion is this could be very good? Yes financing firms may well have wanted or needed the larger variance from +\- 20% to +\- 30%!!
Since no one knows for sure Scandium Pricing until hard contracts are in place. But love to hear from Walter!!!
Landmark I've spoken with management about NYSE. Forget about it for now! It's very expensive and several requirements need to be met. But yes one day if the project comes to production we will move to a big US EXCHANGE most likely
Walter that's an extremely impressive resume and proud you should be!! Thank you for such candor! I think everyone on this board is fortunate to have your input.
I truly meant it when I said it's people like you and your confidence in Niocorp that have helped me not loose mine! Like I've said before on this board I've studied this company for over 3 years and I have to trust my analysis which still says Niocorp could have an incredible future! But sometimes I feel like I'm missing something, and that drives me a little crazy! If I'm ever in Belgium perhaps you'll let me buy you a beer? Thanks again for your sharing some personal history and all your good insights!!
Walter have you ever been involved with mining stocks before? If so which ones? How did it go? Ever see a junior mining company through to production?
Thank you !!
Wow!! Very impressive! Thank you
Kindly !!
Hey Walter, forgive me if you've answered this years ago, but what is your background professionally?
Investment banking? Accounting?
Managing trusts & estates? Etc etc
Thank you
Walter your English is perfect in your post! And sincerely I value your confidence! I'm aware that you are close to management and have a long history with this project. You seem to me a sound investor with many years experience! In truth you ARE one of the reasons I'm still in this investment. There's a handful of people on this board I respect. You are of course one of them and at the top of the list. Not that you need my affirmation but I'm giving it anyway!!
There must be reasons this stock is at this price. Could it be 12-18 months of dewatering? Still 4-5 years away from any realistic production? Permits? The uncertainty of scandium market pricing? The patience that mining stocks seem to require in a world of
Instant pleasure/rewards expectations? Mark being busy with multiple companies and projects? Etc etc but still this boggles my mind why people aren't lining up to at least throw a little money into something that can pay Dividends for 100-200years !!!!!
Walter as always I appreciate your experience & due diligence. I did not read any of the financials, I simply went by a number from an article at Anglo American website. I apologize to all if I made some faulty assumptions!!
I get that Mark pushes fast fast fast !! But that is not always wise. If he waited just a little bit and PEA 2 numbers were released right off the bat, who knows what this stock would have done.
IT ABSOLUTELY HURTS SHAREHOLDER CONFIDENCE TO BE MISSING STATED TIMEFRAMES BY A HUGE AMOUNT!! People hate getting jerked around especially with a project that's been promoted for over 40 years !!!!!!!! By the way it was a big mistake not to deal with that issue straight forward at the last Town Hall !!
One would think Mark would know that?!!
I recall 14-15 bidders? Either way I asked Jim once why wouldn't those companies be jumping all over Niocorp? Can't remember his answer? But maybe the bidders were after the phosphates??? Does anyone know ? Not speculate but know anything about that deal ??!
The Niobium & Phosphates group had
$146 million in EBITDA in 2016. That's the number to use to compare. BUT
How much from Niobium & how much from Phosphates went into the $146?
Also the Chinese group may have been more interested in the phosphates? Some I remember that was the more profitable group.
The Niobium mine has something like 6-7 years left unless ownership expends significant capex I was told.
I love good intense debate!! But most of all I love TRUTH !!! Each one of us must be careful to be very accurate with what we post ! We may mean well, but accidentally post bad info !!
I've been posting the positives and negatives of Niocorp with the best info I know.
I always say " you must look at the negatives of anything!! If those don't scare you off, that's a very good sign! Then look at the positives!!"
Do it with all decisions!! It's a quite sobering way to live!!
People who don't like my "sobering" posts just reveal their own fears about the company!!
I once mentored someone in sales management. His company told him to lie, and only tell positives. I coached him to do just the opposite: first bluntly tell all the negatives and see if one was a deal breaker! If all negatives were reasonably acceptable then tell all the positives!" By the way that manager became number 1 in the country! He gave & gives all the credit to following my advice!! True story!!
Putz !! Awesome article it looks like the other poster was inaccurate big time !! Mark did raise the money!!
Mark was at Mountain Pass for 25 years !!!
Ps Public message to Mark Smith:
Please I beg you, let Jim Sims or Scott Honan set timelines in the future! PLEASE!!!! Trust these awesome people you have hired !!
I have never once found Jim or Scott
To over exaggerate a timeline.
Sincerely- a shareholder who profoundly believes in this project!!
I pray and hope this new 52 week low will put a fire under Marks butt !!
I believe he is a winner!! And my experience is when you piss off a winner they get FIGHTING MAD !!!
We invest to make money not to be in some message board club !!
Come on Mark Smith we all believe in you, even with your faults!! No one is perfect!! That's why you hire great people who are strong where you are weak !! And you've done a great job in attracting high caliber talent!!
But the market is saying you SUCK as a CEO at least for Niocorp!! Now what are you going to do about it? !!!
Correction: No Financing= No Mine=
A complete fantasy!!!
But I believe it will happen !!
MassLanding; I think I'm fairly astute at recognizing when someone knows what they're talking about? You reel off that info like "someone who knows what they're talking about!!"
Thank you
Scott told me immediately!! Asap in fact he can't wait !!
It's hard to respond to such an intelligent reply! Your harsh words almost made me cry--with sad laughter!! Gee I guess I'll follow your advice!! Such an example of wisdom!!
Go back an actually read what I wrote after you take the ADD rx forgot to take !!
Dude overly zealous or irresponsible??? Get real
I'm still in because Mark Has a lot of his money on the line!! The minute he sells is when I dump or take more serious actions!! Read into that what you will !!
Also no intelligent person expects Mark to have a crystal ball. I'm only asking for transparency and some honest common sense!! To say we are laser focused to produce elements in 2017 when the FS is far from completed is simply ridiculous!!
How many bought stock believing in the integrity and public statements of management? There's a reason this stock sits the current price even after the completed FS. And if this 3rd party report is so darn important to moving things along why didn't we hear about that long ago as well!! First I heard about it was at the Townhall!! And to be honest it pissed me off !!! Like one excuse after another!!!!
Putz please review and tell me what you think. Remember March 2015 is a long way from a completed FS. Also Mark is the one with over 30 years experience. Go to the InvestorIntel YouTube video with following title dated March 5 2015. Go to 8min 25 sec spot. My point is how can one say with any credibility what he says. There is a pattern here. Obviously key players in mining are not jumping in quite yet. I don't believe we are being told the full story!
NioCorp’s recent niobium resource updates and "outstanding” titanium and scandium deposits
InvestorIntel 2,126 views
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Published on Mar 5, 2015March 5, 2015 — In a special InvestorIntel interview, Publisher Tracy Weslosky speaks with Mark Smith of NioCorp Developments Ltd. (TSXV: NB | OTCQX: NIOBF) on t
Agreed timelines suggested by Mark Smith quite simply border on
Misinformation!!! I was just watching an old YouTube video with that paid advertisement deal with Tracy W. they do every once in awhile. At the 8:30 point Mark says "we remain laser focused to have this project producing Niobium in calendar year 2017."
Umm looks like we're gonna miss that by about hmmm say FIVE YEARS MINIMUM!! Hell 1.5 years to dewater alone! I know of a mining person who feared the project would NEVER happen because it was known there was a huge amount of water down there !! Mark knew!! Maybe not how much but i strongly suspect he knew something. It was BS to say this project would be up and running by 2017. And he said it in 2016!! Quite frankly it borders on dishonesty!!
I hate being lied to!! Just like the 100page report is a condescend version of the FS because bankers can't read 1000 pages !! BS the report is a 3rd party verification of the technical work that bankers require before final approval and funding!! NOT SOME CLIFF NOTES version FOR LAZY People WITH A BILLION DOLLARS laying around!!
Oops there I go again telling the truth !!
Todd is this what you meant? This was posted by inversor86 in January 2014. Along with much more.... the 82.5 million obviously refers to Molycorp.
"This isn't the first time that Mr. Smith took the micro cap ball and ran with it, according to the news release, Mr. Smith took over Molycorp in 2008 with an 82.5 million valuation and helped grow the company to a $6 billion valuation by 2011. Molycorp is worth $1.5 billion now but original investors made fortunes as Smith helped push Molycorp's share price to over $70 just three years ago."
Phenomenal post Double D!!
A++++ in good info. Do you know the names of the investors and hedge funds back in 2008? And what was corporate name at that time?
Thanks MakeNioGreatAgain!! Excellent website!! Great info
Please notice there is a 2million credit facility with about 1.7-1.8 million still available in emergency. I think that's where the recent $180,000 from Mark came from? But the 2 million facility is definitely from Marks personal extension of credit to the company.
Mark also addresses this in either the townhall or latest investor call. I can't remember which? Mark says money has always been tight !! Remember these projects are ALWAYS money pits until production. Like any company with heavy upfront R&D or
Exploratory costs. Mark has always come up with $ when needed!!
I asked this question at townhall!!
Niocorp could upscale production from about 3500-3700 tons of raw material per day to about 5000 tons per day, which is about a 50% increase in production of ALL 3 ELEMENTS!! So Scandium could bump to about 150 tons per year.
Now I'm going by memory so my numbers may be off a little but not much. Scott Honan said the operation is SCALABLE!! But they have to pick a fixed point for FS. Now certain variable costs will increase, which will increase Capex. Remember Niocorp tried to keep capex under 1 billion because they didn't want to scare off investors. But just know the current run rate in FS would allow for the mine to produce for a minimum of 220 years!!! With scaling up 50% it could run for about 170 years. And that is without further resource drilling!!
I hope everyone understands what I'm saying!! This is way I'm saying this is a 70-80$us stock in 7-8 years!!!
My forecast is not pie in the sky numbers!! Remember I know numbers!!!! Blessings to all !!!
Again TO Double D posts valuable information!! We all benefit from
Todd's Due Diligence!!
Actually I heard Mark say, " we (Niocorp) are aware Warren is not found of mining stocks since he got burned once. But we would love to make a presentation to him. So if any of you has connections please let us know."
I believe if we go back and carefully listen to the Town-hall which I was at for the whole thing we might find my quote to be fairly close.
In fact I asked a question I the Q&A period and someone in the company later told me "I think that was Marks favorite question of the evening!"
Ouch, I think I just pulled a muscle patting myself on the back!! Lol of
Course that person may have just been being nice!!
I sincerely want to apologize to all for my recent harshness and "apparent negativity". Years ago when I made a large some of money in Homeland Security Tech Stocks, I used to meet with people and challenge them to trash my analysis!! To find errors, to find any weaknesses in my strategy and thinking!! No one could defeat it!!
Made $750,000 in 4 years( profit) then
I became arrogant and thought my strategy was without weakness. Then
the: unknown unknowns happened!!!
And I got spanked in 3 separate situations!! I was trying to challenge people and look for insights I didn't have. So I apologize if I offended some and negatively influenced the dialogue!!
Thanks Landmark!! Apparently my new meds are working!! Lol just kidding about new meds!!
Looks like every company might be worthy of some due diligence!! Especially with ToDD's latest post
Todd!! Phenomenal post !! Seriously important info !!
One thing Ive learned from Jim is this whole process is incredibly complex with dozens of moving parts!!
And because each project is unique, it's almost like "an original Rembrandt
Painting!" We want simple answers but really an ORIGINAL FINANCIAL MASTERPIECE is being painted I real time!! I'll bet Mark and Jim sometimes want to scream and say Just let us paint!!!! We will show the painting at legally required moments!!! This might be a good analogy????